Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.

The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Firefox @ #597 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:38 pm

    “And he has been saying I previously said they didn’t. An absolutely daft proposition.”

    Thank flip for Google search and William having a well indexed site…

    Quote:

    FF: As a member of the NSW Greens, I’m pretty sure I understand myself and how I vote lol. In fact, I just explained a few posts ago exactly how I – a Greens voter – just voted in NSW and how I plan to vote federally.

    EGW: Getting all innovative and clever in how you sequence your preferences, as you have described, will produce a distinction without a difference.
    But go ahead and feel very clever about your meaningless gesture.

    D&M: Vox pop in our household for upper house. 2 members planning to vote 1 Labor 2 Greens, then an assortment of other progressive parties. 4 members of the household will vote 1 Animal Justice only, above the line.

    In our household, the cats and dogs are on a unity ticket.

    EGW: So 4 votes will be thrown away.
    Will they get some sort of a warm inner glow?

    FF: EGW, allocating preferences is hardly meaningless. We don’t use a first past the post system you know. I order my preferences so parties of the left get as much benefit from my vote as possible, then place Labor after them to ensure that the Coalition and right wing minors do not get in. That’s the exact opposite of meaningless.

    EGW: The only ‘parties of the left’ that will get a Senator elected are Labor and, unfortunately, the Greens. So taking fancy circuitous routes to get your preferences to those two is just meaningless ‘feel good’ stuff. Enjoy!

    FF: EGW, last time I checked, parties like Animal Justice are still in the running to win upper house seats in NSW. Every vote counts and me giving them my preference gives them a better shot at picking up an upper house seat than if I didn’t give them a prefrence. At the moment it’s parties like AJP, KSO, ALP etc who are fighting it out with far right parties like One Nation and the Shooters for those last spots in the NSW upper house. I can’t believe I actually have to explain this to someone.

    EGW: You don’t have to explain.
    I think I have a better understanding of how Senate votes are counted than you appear to.

    FF: EGW, you’ve actually demonstrated that you don’t have a clue. You suggested that the only parties of the left with a chance of winning upper house seats were Labor and the Greens. That is just factually incorrect. Animal Justice has already won an upper house seat at the last NSW election and is in the running again this time. If they get in instead of One Nation or some other whacko party you can thank people like me who bothered to prefrence them. Even if they don’t get in at least I can say I did my bit to try and protect NSW from fascists.

    EGW: Water under the bridge and hence not currently relevant.
    Think Senate.

    FF: How is it not currently relevant when the upper house votes in NSW aren’t anywhere near finished being counted? They are literally sorting out the very preferences we’ve been talking about as we speak! I’m not sure that you can get more relevant than that.

    EGW: Oh dear… are you a Guytaur sock puppet?
    1. The NSW votes have been cast and cannot be altered.
    2. Most of Australia is not NSW.
    3. The next upper house election will be for the Senate.

    FF: EGW,
    Ok mate, you keep telling yourself that preferences don’t matter. Yes, the votes have been cast in NSW but millions of them are yet to be counted and have their upper house preferences distributed. Who wins those final seats will depend on prefrence flows. To claim they don’t matter or that it’s pointless to prefrence left wing minors is just ridiculous. And yes, I’ll be voting the same way federally too. Even if a minor party who represents my views has zero chance of winning a seat I’ll still prefrence them. From little things big things grow. The question is why wouldn’t you give preferences to parties you like after you’ve voted 1 for your first choice? The only reason I can think of is if you’re one of those people who just can’t be f….ed to fill out the bit of paper, but that doesn’t make sense in your case. If you care enough about politics to be on a serious psephology website like Pollbludger then you probably care enough to vote properly.

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/02/calm-before-the-storm/comment-page-15/#comments

    It goes on and on and on. You get the drift.

    Did you not understand the key point I made right at the outset?
    “EGW: Getting all innovative and clever in how you sequence your preferences, as you have described, will produce a distinction without a difference.
    But go ahead and feel very clever about your meaningless gesture.”

    If you don’t understand that I give up.

  2. BH @ #577 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:10 pm

    Or does it give Morrison another chance to tell us that he lives outside the ‘bubble’ the journos inhabit. “Look, I’m like you not those fake people who live in the bubble and spread fake news”. He’s cunning.

    Ad Men create the bubbles! Froth and nonsense is their specialty.

  3. Impressive presser by Shorten around noon. He was articulate and on top of policy, with almost an absence of ums and ahs. He’s certainly peaking at the right time. And, I do like how he shares his pressers with high-profile female members of his team. Be it Tanya, Penny, Kristina, Catherine – they all shine; as do males, particularly Jim Chalmers.

  4. The big take out from Morrison’s visit to Melbourne is that he does not have an AFL Team. This will, by itself, cost the Libs up to 10 seats in Victoria.

  5. “If you don’t understand that I give up.”

    My supposedly “meaningless gesture” just helped Animal Justice get elected. Yep. Totally meaningless.

    And yes, if you’re still wondering, days like today do give me a “warm inner glow” lol

  6. GG – The other big take out is that Morrison is deeply concerned about his “authenticity”. I wonder why?

  7. Without the Greens, the ALP wouldn’t have a policy platform. It would just be a social club for superannuated centrists. The Greens perform essential political ecosystem services: policy development, progressive goals, grassroots organizing. The ALP would wither and die without the Greens.

  8. William Bowe @ #611 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:01 pm

    I’ve got to say that Scott Morrison’s “I’m not a phony” approach to this question beats Paul Keating’s.

    It’s like in the Miss Universe Contest where candidates are obligated to include”World Peace” as one of their aspirations. Without it you are just not taken seriously.

  9. Lovely to see David Leyonhjelm accepting with good grace the will of the people in his losing in the NSW upper house election.

    I look forward to his search for a new job in the private sector he loves so much beginning at once.

    Sadly I fear federal voters may need to give him similar guidance before he begins the search.

  10. “David Leyonhjelm@DavidLeyonhjelm

    Compulsory voting is not democracy”

    Hahahahahaha

    Reminds me of this from 2012…

  11. Nicholas
    ” The ALP would wither and die without the Greens.”

    Now THAT’s funny! 😀

    So much for Greens not having a sense of humour!

  12. Firefox @ #609 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:59 pm

    “If you don’t understand that I give up.”

    My supposedly “meaningless gesture” just helped Animal Justice get elected. Yep. Totally meaningless.

    And yes, if you’re still wondering, days like today do give me a “warm inner glow” lol

    You lack a sufficient understanding of how votes are counted.
    Suppose a number of ALP voters did not vote Greens 2.
    Suppose the ALP had a fraction of a quota for the preferences to be distributed.
    Next suppose the Greens candidate was excluded before those preferences flowed through to the Greens to keep their candidate in the race.

    Result – unhappy Greens and those oh so clever ALP voters electing who knows what sort of a nutter instead of a Green.

    Do you now get the point of not playing silly games to maximise the effectiveness of your vote?

    I have painted only one possible scenario where a perverse outcome could flow from such ‘cleverness’.

  13. Nicholas @ #614 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:02 pm

    Without the Greens, the ALP wouldn’t have a policy platform. It would just be a social club for superannuated centrists. The Greens perform essential political ecosystem services: policy development, progressive goals, grassroots organizing. The ALP would wither and die without the Greens.

    Clueless.
    Greens, Democrats and other minor parties before them tend to just recycle ideas originating in Labor. I have been through this argument many times.

  14. “I’ve got to say that Scott Morrison’s “I’m not a phony” approach to this question beats Paul Keating’s.”

    Yeah. Nah. Sorry oh Lord, but ScoMo is actually a rugga bugger and on,y discovered League and the Sharkies in 2008, after being parachuted into the Shire over the political corpse of his winning preselection opponent.

    He’s a phony alright. Down to his rugby bootstraps.

  15. BH says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 1:37 pm

    Itep – thanks. What real contribution has Nile made to NSW over all those years. I’m pushed to remember anything.

    He’s highlighted why the separation of church and State is a good thing.

  16. Oh EGW, buddy, just quit while you’re behind. This is getting tiresome. I explained to you weeks ago how prefrencing left wing minors as well as Labor was anything but meaningless. Today I have been vindicated. I tried to let this slide earlier. I tried to let you enjoy the moment and share in the victory over DL. You just couldn’t be humble and gracious, could you. Thankfully, not all voters in NSW are like you. The left got Animal Justice elected instead of a right winger. The end.

  17. “David Leyonhjelm@DavidLeyonhjelm

    Compulsory voting is not democracy”

    Becoming a Senator because people mistake the name of your political party, and relying on preference whispering when you garner less than half a quota is much less democratic than compulsory voting.

  18. ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, April 15, 2019 at 1:57 pm

    Olivia Leeming @olivialeeming
    1h1 hour ago

    Journalists covering Scott Morrison’s campaign find out via his Instagram account he did a street walk in Melbourne this morning. We were on a bus at the time, waiting for his next event #ausvotes #AUSVotes2019

    Is this clever management or cowardice?’

    That is the second pissed off reference I have seen from journos on Morrison’s bus. As GG notes, it is about keeping journalists in the dark. What impact all this has, I don’t know.

  19. The only progressive candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination is Bernie Sanders:

    All the other candidates in the race have links, both current and historical, to the party establishment, and none of them pose the kind of threat to the millionaire and billionaire class which Bernie Sanders poses. Elizabeth Warren was a Republican until 1996, and stayed out of the 2016 primary to curry favour with Hillary Clinton. Robert O’Rourke was one of the most conservative Democrats in congress during his time there. Pete Buttigieg presided over an era of gentrification in South Bend. Joe Biden is a consummate insider, supporting welfare reform, the Iraq War, and the repeal of the Glass-Steagall financial regulations. Kamala Harris is a tough on crime prosecutor who locked up parents when their kids missed school and laughed about it. Cory Booker is already in bed with the banks and pharmaceutical companies.

    https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2019/04/15/bernie-sanders-tax-returns-are-irrelevant/?fbclid=IwAR0E6DrvokFQu_SfTnddV-4Pt6RVET4vyeovgLVgxgyDuazYiAFbDnajJuU

  20. Firefox @ #631 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:18 pm

    Oh EGW, buddy, just quit while you’re behind. This is getting tiresome. I explained to you weeks ago how prefrencing left wing minors as well as Labor was anything but meaningless. Today I have been vindicated. I tried to let this slide earlier. I tried to let you enjoy the moment and share in the victory over DL. You just couldn’t be humble and gracious, could you. Thankfully, not all voters in NSW are like you. The left got Animal Justice elected instead of a right winger. The end.

    Your only vindication exists in the hollow of your head.
    There are only a certain number of ‘left’ votes. Any leakage of their preferences as the count progresses has the potential to harm the overall ‘left’ and result in some rw nutter being elected.
    To avoid leakages, vote for those with a realistic chance of winning first. Then play your games ranking the also-rans.

  21. “David Leyonhjelm@DavidLeyonhjelm

    Compulsory voting is not democracy”

    Cheer up David , look at the bright side. Not voting for YOU is democracy.

  22. FF

    It’s going to be hard for Glady’s.
    With that makeup to ignore One Nation she has to deal with the left.

    Pill testing
    Euthanasia
    Climate Change
    Housing Affordability

    Are going to be tough issues for her. Especially after as I expect Labor becomes the Federal Government

  23. How are the Greens going with their costings for their UBI?
    Any advances on $20,000 per adult for an all-up cost of $400,000,000,000?

  24. How are the Greens going with their costings and funding for 500,000 new dwellings?
    If the dwelling are one bed room units, we are looking at, say minimum, $300,000 per unit. That is $150 billion.
    You can see why their No 1 Mission Statement is to hold Labor to account.
    Holding themselves to account would be a nightmare.

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