The Australian brings us a second Newspoll in consecutive weeks, perhaps portending weekly results from now to the election. It shows no change from last week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 52-48 lead, but both major parties are up on the primary vote – Labor by two and the Coalition by one, leaving them tied on 39%. The Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are, interestingly, down two to 4%. All we are told of the leaders’ ratings at this stage is that they are “virtually unchanged”. Scott Morrison is unchanged on 45% approval and up one to 44% disapproval; Bill Shorten is unchanged on both measures, at 37% and 51%; and preferred prime minister is likewise unchanged, at 46-35 in favour of Morrison. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1697.
Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor
The first published opinion poll of the campaign records no change in Labor’s modest yet decisive lead.
Firefox @ #597 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:38 pm
Did you not understand the key point I made right at the outset?
“EGW: Getting all innovative and clever in how you sequence your preferences, as you have described, will produce a distinction without a difference.
But go ahead and feel very clever about your meaningless gesture.”
If you don’t understand that I give up.
Smith and Warner selected for World Cup. Hanscomb and Hazlewood miss out.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/26526151/smith-warner-make-world-cup-return-handscomb-hazlewood-out
lizzie @ #599 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:48 pm
I think we already know that National’s leaders eat, root and leave…
BH @ #577 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:10 pm
Ad Men create the bubbles! Froth and nonsense is their specialty.
Tom @ #601 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:51 pm
Didn’t he used to call it ‘The Wombat Trail’? 😆
Post up on the New South Wales upper house result:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/15/new-south-wales-election-one-time/
Impressive presser by Shorten around noon. He was articulate and on top of policy, with almost an absence of ums and ahs. He’s certainly peaking at the right time. And, I do like how he shares his pressers with high-profile female members of his team. Be it Tanya, Penny, Kristina, Catherine – they all shine; as do males, particularly Jim Chalmers.
The big take out from Morrison’s visit to Melbourne is that he does not have an AFL Team. This will, by itself, cost the Libs up to 10 seats in Victoria.
“If you don’t understand that I give up.”
My supposedly “meaningless gesture” just helped Animal Justice get elected. Yep. Totally meaningless.
And yes, if you’re still wondering, days like today do give me a “warm inner glow” lol
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/more-voters-is-not-more-democracy-20190414-p51dzb
I’ve got to say that Scott Morrison’s “I’m not a phony” approach to this question beats Paul Keating’s.
GG – The other big take out is that Morrison is deeply concerned about his “authenticity”. I wonder why?
GG
Yes.
AFL really is religion in Victoria.
Without the Greens, the ALP wouldn’t have a policy platform. It would just be a social club for superannuated centrists. The Greens perform essential political ecosystem services: policy development, progressive goals, grassroots organizing. The ALP would wither and die without the Greens.
William
I missed that one
If you feel the need to say that your not a phony…. then you probably are.
William Bowe @ #611 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:01 pm
It’s like in the Miss Universe Contest where candidates are obligated to include”World Peace” as one of their aspirations. Without it you are just not taken seriously.
Captain GetUp has proven to be a liability:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/zali-steggall-calls-on-tony-abbott-to-set-standards-after-release-of-sexualised-video-20190415-p51e7m.html
Lovely to see David Leyonhjelm accepting with good grace the will of the people in his losing in the NSW upper house election.
I look forward to his search for a new job in the private sector he loves so much beginning at once.
Sadly I fear federal voters may need to give him similar guidance before he begins the search.
“David Leyonhjelm@DavidLeyonhjelm
Compulsory voting is not democracy”
Hahahahahaha
Reminds me of this from 2012…
Nicholas
” The ALP would wither and die without the Greens.”
Now THAT’s funny! 😀
So much for Greens not having a sense of humour!
Firefox @ #609 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 2:59 pm
You lack a sufficient understanding of how votes are counted.
Suppose a number of ALP voters did not vote Greens 2.
Suppose the ALP had a fraction of a quota for the preferences to be distributed.
Next suppose the Greens candidate was excluded before those preferences flowed through to the Greens to keep their candidate in the race.
Result – unhappy Greens and those oh so clever ALP voters electing who knows what sort of a nutter instead of a Green.
Do you now get the point of not playing silly games to maximise the effectiveness of your vote?
I have painted only one possible scenario where a perverse outcome could flow from such ‘cleverness’.
guytaur @ #613 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:02 pm
As nutty as the Pentacostals.
Formal Announcement of Termination of employment for Foleau by Rugby Australia now.
Nicholas @ #614 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:02 pm
Clueless.
Greens, Democrats and other minor parties before them tend to just recycle ideas originating in Labor. I have been through this argument many times.
EGW
Nah. AFL makes more sense. 🙂
“I’ve got to say that Scott Morrison’s “I’m not a phony” approach to this question beats Paul Keating’s.”
Yeah. Nah. Sorry oh Lord, but ScoMo is actually a rugga bugger and on,y discovered League and the Sharkies in 2008, after being parachuted into the Shire over the political corpse of his winning preselection opponent.
He’s a phony alright. Down to his rugby bootstraps.
Nicholas @ #614 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:02 pm
Tricky analogy, likening the Greens to fertilizer producers? 🙂
BH says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 1:37 pm
He’s highlighted why the separation of church and State is a good thing.
EGW @ #623 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:12 pm
It’s not a matter of life and death. It’s far more important than that!
Oh EGW, buddy, just quit while you’re behind. This is getting tiresome. I explained to you weeks ago how prefrencing left wing minors as well as Labor was anything but meaningless. Today I have been vindicated. I tried to let this slide earlier. I tried to let you enjoy the moment and share in the victory over DL. You just couldn’t be humble and gracious, could you. Thankfully, not all voters in NSW are like you. The left got Animal Justice elected instead of a right winger. The end.
“David Leyonhjelm@DavidLeyonhjelm
Compulsory voting is not democracy”
Becoming a Senator because people mistake the name of your political party, and relying on preference whispering when you garner less than half a quota is much less democratic than compulsory voting.
Greensborough Growler @ #630 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:16 pm
So GG’s real name is Bill…
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fnation%2Fscott-morrison-a-rugby-union-man-at-heart%2Fnews-story%2F4d664f3040a1237e2a2d6563252cb1e5&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium
And
https://junkee.com/scott-morrison-jock/176699
Fraudster.
Bula
This is shameful.
The vanity project of prosecuting all and sundry for contempt and the case is too vaguely put even in the mind of the prosecutor.
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-15/george-pell-guilty-verdict-coverage-media-contempt-case/11002760
More funnier! (intended)
32 and a bit days to go FFS
Is SHY still after the bugger in court?
‘lizzie says:
Monday, April 15, 2019 at 1:57 pm
Olivia Leeming @olivialeeming
1h1 hour ago
Journalists covering Scott Morrison’s campaign find out via his Instagram account he did a street walk in Melbourne this morning. We were on a bus at the time, waiting for his next event #ausvotes #AUSVotes2019
Is this clever management or cowardice?’
That is the second pissed off reference I have seen from journos on Morrison’s bus. As GG notes, it is about keeping journalists in the dark. What impact all this has, I don’t know.
The only progressive candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination is Bernie Sanders:
https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2019/04/15/bernie-sanders-tax-returns-are-irrelevant/?fbclid=IwAR0E6DrvokFQu_SfTnddV-4Pt6RVET4vyeovgLVgxgyDuazYiAFbDnajJuU
Firefox @ #631 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:18 pm
Your only vindication exists in the hollow of your head.
There are only a certain number of ‘left’ votes. Any leakage of their preferences as the count progresses has the potential to harm the overall ‘left’ and result in some rw nutter being elected.
To avoid leakages, vote for those with a realistic chance of winning first. Then play your games ranking the also-rans.
Cheer up David , look at the bright side. Not voting for YOU is democracy.
Paul, like Gough, knew where the votes were in Victoria:
FF
It’s going to be hard for Glady’s.
With that makeup to ignore One Nation she has to deal with the left.
Pill testing
Euthanasia
Climate Change
Housing Affordability
Are going to be tough issues for her. Especially after as I expect Labor becomes the Federal Government
How are the Greens going with their costings for their UBI?
Any advances on $20,000 per adult for an all-up cost of $400,000,000,000?
nath @ #642 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:30 pm
Looks like Gough and Murray Weiderman when Coach. You do know where Collingwood finished in 1976?
Even the Dalai Lama acknowledges a higher power:
Boerwar @ #644 Monday, April 15th, 2019 – 3:31 pm
still negging I see…
How are the Greens going with their costings and funding for 500,000 new dwellings?
If the dwelling are one bed room units, we are looking at, say minimum, $300,000 per unit. That is $150 billion.
You can see why their No 1 Mission Statement is to hold Labor to account.
Holding themselves to account would be a nightmare.
Nicholas
The party managed to survive for a hundred years without the Greens, so no.
“The ALP would wither and die without the Greens.”
You are a delusional idiot Nicolas.