The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

Comments Page 6 of 21
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  1. Frank Bongiorno

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-11/federal-election-2019-australia-has-two-types-voters-issues/10992018

    They demand that governments make the wealthy contribute a fair share to meeting the tax burden. They are impatient with what they see as the greed and amorality of big business and big government. And they are less tolerant than a generation ago of rising inequality.

    But above all, they really dislike politicians. This is not new — it was there even in colonial times — but it is potent and growing. The Australian National University’s Australian Election Study revealed that the 1996 and 2007 elections — each of which saw a change of government — coincided with a rise in political trust and satisfaction with democracy. The 2013 change-of-government election did not. At the 2016 election, trust fell to alarming proportions.

    It may well be that this number — which Antony Green’s hardworking computer will not spit out on election night — is really the one to watch once the dust settles on the 2019 election.

  2. Shorten:

    “What we believe in is making sure that the economy works in the interests of working and middle class people, when every day Australians are getting a fair go, this economy hums.”

    Ross Gittins – Why politicians only pretend to care about low income earners:

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-politicians-only-pretend-to-care-about-low-income-earners-20190409-p51c9c.html

    What gets me is how we can claim to be worried about those with low incomes while excluding those whose income is low because they can’t find a job. They were ineligible for help because the lower taxes were only for, to quote the measure’s official name, “hard-working Australians”.
    :::
    But if anyone really cared about the lowest of low incomes, they’d end the 25-year freeze on increasing the dole beyond the rise in consumer prices. It’s unconscionable for a nation as rich as we are to the give the jobless so little to live on it actually makes it harder for them to find work.
    :::
    Don’t kid yourself Labor would be much better, however. It’s seeking plaudits (and product differentiation) by raising the Liberals’ $255 cut to $350 – which will make all the difference.

    And Labor is just as unwilling to increase the dole as the Coalition is. Why? Not because Labor thinks it possible to live decently on $40 a day, nor even because it would cost too much (which it wouldn’t).

    No, as Labor shadow social services minister Linda Burney had the honesty to admit, it’s because too many voters – including Labor voters, no doubt – would disapprove. And we wouldn’t want that.

  3. nath says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 11:50 am

    Barney, for a teacher your sentence construction is appalling. No wonder you are forced to take your chalkboard to non-English speaking lands.

    And the errors were?

  5. A minor quibble on Shorten’s words so far. As Observer I think said, the phrase “invests in property” should be “speculates in property”. Answering random questions at a press conference may not be place to make that point, but I hope it eventually gets made. A minor thing at this stage.

  7. Cool. The election has been called. He didn’t wait until the weekend, which seems unusual but whatever, it’s done. May 18. Let’s go.

    Finally, we can drop all the silly conspiracy theories about Morrison calling a split election, proroguing parliament indefinitely or choosing some bad date to enable ratbaggery.

    Do yourselves a favour: don’t spend every day of the election glued to this site (or any politics blogs/Twitter). You’re going to go insane with the anxiety.

  8. Bill Shorten launches his genuine grass roots election campaign while standing on genuine grass in a genuine suburban backyard.

  9. “I like that the new ‘merit based’ approach comes in after the Libs have made all the appointment they want so the new government is ‘expected’ to use it. Very cynical.”

    As is calling the election on a Thursday. Get through the last stackings of boards and authorities, the last sinecures, especially get Adani up, then shut down Senate Estimates ASAP.

  11. The sooner people in PB recognise Nath as a Liberal Party troll pretending to be anything else but a Liberal troll and ignore him completely the more room we will have for useful and stimulating discussion/debate.

  13. George Megalogenis

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-tragedy-of-the-2019-election-20190404-p51b07.html

    For the second time this decade, Australians are poised to remove a federal government without enthusiasm for the alternative. The incumbent, exhausted by years of infighting, faces an opposition united by the promise of an early return to office, but mindful that it has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory before.

    This is the tragedy of the 2019 election. While the nation rightly demands stable government, a decisive victory for either side will not necessarily grant voters their democratic wish. What is easily overlooked in the pantomime of politics is that the community is also polarised. Our leaders have embarrassed us, and our Parliament has defined itself only by what it has blocked, because no party has been able to balance the 21st century interests and identities of the cities and the regions, of workers and retirees, of migrant and Indigenous Australians on the one hand and white Australians on the other.

  14. I guess you don’t realize that Australia is the worlds biggest exporter of coal by a large margin – nearly 40% of all coal burned worldwide comes from Australia **. And this will very likely increase further should Adani go ahead.

    Not right, not even close. Australia might produce 40% of all seaborn coal, but most coal is mined and burnt locally.

  15. Exactly.

    This could be Australia’s Trump moment.
    We are looking at an increasingly divided polarized country. Look at Victoria, even Hawthorn went Labor at the state election, but there was no swing in the rural areas.

  16. ‘The only solution is the off switch or change channels. Anything else is better.’

    Or, like me just don’t watch anything for the next five weeks.
    Haven’t seen anything yet. Still never seen or heard Abbott’s victory speech and I reckon
    life is sweeter for it.
    Give it a try.

  17. Emma Dawson is executive director of progressive policy think tank Per Capita

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/the-unemployed-deserve-better-whoever-wins-the-election-20190410-p51cws.html

    Entirely predictably, last week’s federal budget included nothing for the most impoverished Australians – those relying on unemployment benefits.
    :::
    Many passionate advocates for a rise in Newstart were left bitterly disappointed when Labor ruled out immediately committing to “raise the rate” at its national conference last December, instead announcing a review to determine by how much it should be increased, should they win the upcoming federal election.
    :::
    Both Labor and Coalition governments have in recent years made it harder to access the disability support payment, introduced measures that reduce the incomes of single mothers and supported trials of the Cashless Debit Card. The recent budget’s forecast savings on income support indicate an intention to continue with a highly punitive approach to social security, in pursuit of the elusive budget surplus.

    Yet Australia is one of the wealthiest nations on Earth, and has benefited from almost three decades of uninterrupted economic growth, while those in receipt of social security experience among the highest poverty levels in the OECD.

    What use is our collective wealth if we can’t give a dignified life to people with disabilities, to single parents and their children, to our First Nations people and to those who, in a labour market where there are up to eight applicants for every job, are unable to find work?

  18. Nat Political Editor for Herald-Sun.

    James Campbell
    ‏@J_C_Campbell

    Strangely flat delivery from Bill Shorten this morning.

    @samanthamaiden
    25m25 minutes ago

    Agree. Scott Morrison’s pitch much more disciplined. Backyard might be “fair dinkum” but he’s allowed PM to wear the power of incumbency. Whole thing makes him look like an opposition leader, not a PM

    So there you go. Maybe Bill was deliberately not shouting, but the H-S will report on his lack of enthusiasm.

  19. EB
    says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 12:24 pm
    The sooner people in PB recognise Nath as a Liberal Party troll pretending to be anything else but a Liberal troll and ignore him completely the more room we will have for useful and stimulating discussion/debate.
    ___________________________
    I’m advocating a change of government. The ALP will receive my preference before the Libs, despite the presence of Shorten, Kitching, Farrell, Burke et al. Whatever hopes I have for the next ALP government hang on Albanese and Plibersek.

  21. Amy

    As far as we know, arrangements for the Vip jets (which both leaders of the major parties have access to during an election campaign) are being finalised.

    Amy makes it sound like there are just 2 of these. Would the Nationals have automatic access by virtue of their coalition status? And does any PBer know how flight bookings are made? Or are the jets on stand by?

  22. GG: “So, I think it’s you that has left the reservation in this instance.”

    Perhaps your mistake is assuming I was ever on the reservation in the first place?

    Sophocles (i.e. Oedipus Tyrannus) and Freud appear to have been correct: Mr Morrison knows he did a bad thing when he betrayed Mr Turnbull over the three years of the current government, but it would seem he can’t stop talking about it

    To flog the cremated horse further whilst we remain locked in violent agreement, Mr Morrison did not talk about net number of jobs. He simply stated that in order for one worker to be paid more he had to stab his mate in the back; you have inferred that this implies a net decrease (quantity) in number of jobs, which is not necessarily the case. In the alternative, the quality might decrease but the quantity remain the same (or even increase). Notwithstanding the justified antipathy towards Mr Turnbull, it is clear that the quality of the PM job decreased as a result of Mt Morrison’s disloyalty.

  23. GG
    For those looking to do something on May 18, the Eurovision Song Festival Final is on TV.

    Don’t worry – Eurovision Final should be Saturday night Israel time – so Sunday here; just party on all weekend 😉

  24. So, at a minimum, 74 seats needed to form government for the ALP?
    74 + Bandt + Wilkie = 76
    74 + Katter + Phelps = 76

    73 seats apiece would mean NXT (Sharkie) being kingmaker assuming she wins her seat?

  25. I assume there’s no VIP jet for Di Natale, as it would be extremely hypocritical for the Greens leader to hop onto such a carbon-intensive means of transport.

  28. Not looking forward to all the drivel about who looks “prime ministerial”.
    2013 comes to mind as being peak awful, with Abbott being all prettied up, getting his hair done up to try and look like some sort of American president…. was truely vomit inducing.

  29. Another snap of Captain GetUp in Sussex St, Sydney – home to the NSW Trades Hall and ALP HQ – is the Captain an ALP stooge? Playing the double agent game?

  30. Voters don’t really need these last remaining weeks to decide who’s good for them and who’s not.

    Neither the L/NP or Labor have a track record of doing the right thing for the people.

    We all know deep down the major parties are corrupted by their special interest donors.

    Search out good progressive independents in your electorate and restore the parliament to the people.

  34. nath
    “”Whatever hopes I have for the next ALP government hang on Albanese and Plibersek.””
    Won’t happen!, that’s INSTABILITY, the labors fear of death!.
    Just be thankful we have ejected the useless Liberal mob!.
    Bill Shorten will be the Bob Hawke Mk2 for this country.

  35. Tesla’s founder Elon Musk decided to involve himself in the Twitter backlash about electric car policy in Australia.

    Musk said Labor’s plan for 50 per cent of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030 is actually behind the times. It’s a slap in the face to Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s attack on the Labor Party’s policy.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6024662/no-question-it-could-be-done-tesla-chief-elon-musk-says-labors-ev-plan-is-actually-behind-the-times/?cs=14350&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews

  42. Shock jock Smith was ranting about it costing $16 million extra to equip NSW emergency vehicles with less polluting engines as proposed by Labor. (Something from the DT apparently.)

    It’s best to think of this figure in terms of the $158 million to open and shut CI detention centre for a Motrrison photo op. That is, Morrison’s folly has cost 10 times as much as equipping NSW emergency vehicles to meet lower emissions standards.

  44. nath says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 11:50 am

    “Barney, for a teacher your sentence construction is appalling. No wonder you are forced to take your chalkboard to non-English speaking lands.”

    Seriously William, could you ban this jerk? He really brings this site down. No wonder others lose their cool.

  45. citizen @ #292 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 1:19 pm

    Shock jock Smith was ranting about it costing $16 million extra to equip NSW emergency vehicles with less polluting engines as proposed by Labor. (Something from the DT apparently.)

    It’s best to think of this figure in terms of the $158 million to open and shut CI detention centre for a Motrrison photo op. That is, Morrison’s folly has cost 10 times as much as equipping NSW emergency vehicles to meet lower emissions standards.

    Close. 🙂 It was $185 million for the CI stunt. So nearly 12 times as much.

  46. “Bill Shorten will be the Bob Hawke Mk2 for this country.”

    Nah, I think he’ll be a progressive gentler left version of Howard.
    And I think Strayan’s will grow to like him pretty quickly.

  47. if shorten looks confidence, the media will report that he thinks he’s already won/is arrogant. If he plays it calmly he is apparently “flat” and “unconfident”

    next round of polls will be interesting.

    the best – and you’d think unlikley – scenario morrison could hope for would be scrape into minority government and another three years of disunity and indecision. Labor needs to say Australia can’t afford another three years like the past six years.

    it seems incredible that the LNP could be considered to be competitive – the power of the murdoch media may be waning, but it still seems to hold sway in NSW and Qld in particular. Labor could have played a smaller target campaign and needs to really sell the benefits of its tax plan compared to the LNP. I suspect many in the media make more than $180,000 per year and use negative gearing and trusts to minimise tax. Shorten should make a point of saying “Under labor, politicans and other well paid members of the community – including many of a our critics in the media – will pay more tax, but those on low and middle incomes will pay less and get well funded education and health – and that is fair. Under the liberals, the well paid will get tens of thousands knocked off their tax and funding for education, health and other services will get slashed. That’s not fair.”

    I sense Victoria will save the nation, with a 57/43 vote – although I’m hoping Abbott and Dutton losing their seats are part of the loss too.

  48. Insiders ABC
    ‏ 4h4 hours ago

    This Sunday on #Insiders @barriecassidy will be joined by @annikasmethurst @markgkenny and Niki Savva #auspol

  49. Greensborough Growler @ #211 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 11:42 am

    E. G. Theodore @ #221 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 11:35 am

    GG: “So the pollies received a pay increase recently. Who was sacked as a consequence?”

    Mr. Morrison sought and received a pay increase. Mr Turnbull was sacked as a consequence

    It’s not that hard… (unless one is a ‘potatoe’)

    Cash in your chips comrade. There was a PM before. there is a PM now. All the positions are still in place. Sure there are different people in the jobs. But, the same jobs still exist. S, there is no nett loss of jobs caused by the Pollies payrise.

    Unless you count the NDIS.

  50. Both The West Australian and the Australian have been running Liberal claims about winning Cowan. If you believe them you can make a tidy sum as Ladbrokes have the Libs at $4.50. Labor at $1.25.

    Pearce will be really interesting. Labor needs to turnaround about 3500 votes and there has been a lot of residential development since the last Federal election in Yanchep and Two Rocks, so much so they’ve added a new polling station in the former. Booths in those places went Liberal last time but I’m not sure they will now, especially as at a state level the local Labor MP has been delivering big time.

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