The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

  1. Zoidlord
    “So when are these terrorists goto jail?

    The New Daily:
    Anti-euthanasia protesters have targeted patients and called medical staff “murderers” outside a Melbourne cancer clinic.”

    Exactly. You could say the same about the far right goon squads that accompany Fraser Anning around too. Sorry I forgot. ScumMo wants their votes.

  2. William

    May be also prudent to humbly suggest that PB should also have its own campaign contribution call to support your superlative efforts now and in coming weeks.

    Monies in a brown bag heading your way.

    Sgh1969

  3. From previous thread

    sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 6:53 am
    Check out the gaggle outside Yarralumla waiting for Scotty’s ‘secret’arrival

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KerrieYaxley/status/1116078636635791360/video/1

    I’m still getting my head around this ‘secret’ ScottyStunt ™ – lets replay the thought process

    – fly secretly to Canberra in the evening
    – gatecrash Cosgrove late at night and get him to sign the papers
    – secretly fly to Tasmania
    – in the middle of a presser distributing pork to gerrymandered, announce the election

    Are you sure, Mr Prime Minister? That is a unique and brave approach – but as you wish.

    Click to EditRequest Deletion (5 minutes and 24 seconds)

  4. Sprocket

    Is it like the slow speed media chase of OJ? Only with a far less charismatic protagonist.

    It is about as secret as the AFP raid of the CFMEU. Is Michaela Cash present?

    This is what ScumMo does well. Media stunts to get attention. Too bad their is no governing to go with it.

  5. Now if Turnbull was PM still he’d be waiting at the bus stop.

    Good photo op with PM and bus driver smiling etc etc

    I think the TC network includes one or two routes that pass nearby.

    Pity the new Canberra Tran doesn’t service that part of town … yet.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe says the election will be called today – just after yet another round of job appointments for mates.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-prepares-to-call-the-federal-election-20190410-p51cxn.html
    John Hewson tells us how stupid Frydenberg and the government look.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/frydenberg-looks-ridiculous-as-government-gets-into-a-pickle-20190410-p51cpv.html
    Michelle Grattan summarises yesterday’s Chris Bowen’s NPC appearance.
    https://theconversation.com/bowen-says-labor-would-have-lower-tax-take-than-under-howard-years-115161
    Shane Wright says that a Labor government would attempt to force its tax agenda, including a plan to hit high-income earners with a new deficit repair levy, through Parliament before a potentially hostile new Senate is installed in July.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-plans-to-ram-tax-package-through-lame-duck-senate-20190410-p51cu9.html
    Katharine Murphy says that Labor’s path to victory is open but she wonders whether or not voters have made peace with Bill Shorten.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/11/labors-path-to-victory-is-open-but-have-voters-made-peace-with-bill-shorten
    Niki Savva writes that for the first time since late last winter the mixture of sheer dread and wishful thinking that gripped the Coalition has been replaced by genuine hope that the election is winnable.
    https://www.outline.com/UbyPNz
    John Warhurst has his say on the conduct of the election campaigns.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6010995/no-lull-before-the-election-storm/?cs=14258
    Michael Koziol reports that Abbott has suggested his successor Malcolm Turnbull is among those “trying to create something out of nothing” regarding allegations of undue foreign influence levelled at Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-says-malcolm-turnbull-trying-to-create-something-out-of-nothing-on-peter-dutton-20190410-p51cp8.html
    The Australian’s David Uren explains how the PBO has transformed the electoral landscape in Australia across the course of the two elections since its creation in 2012.
    https://www.outline.com/Gab43t
    The SMH editorial says that the Coalition’s scare campaign against electric vehicles is hypocritical and Luddite but the bright side is it might, at long last, start a meaningful debate about the role the transport sector can play in cutting carbon emissions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/electric-vehicles-are-the-road-to-the-future-20190410-p51cte.html
    Andrew Dillon, chief executive Officer of Energy Networks Australia, explains what needs to be done to make the most from electric vehicles.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-needs-to-be-done-to-make-the-most-from-electric-vehicles-20190410-p51cv4.html
    And electric vehicle-driving, coal power baron Trevor St Baker is throwing millions of dollars into EV charging infrastructure, saying the private sector had to step in to push the industry forward.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/coal-power-baron-says-electric-vehicles-an-inevitability-20190409-p51cak.html
    Toyota has said that it was not consulted on a Liberal party campaign that uses targeted Facebook ads to falsely claim Bill Shorten wants to tax popular car brands including the Toyota Hilux and other utility vehicles.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/10/liberal-party-facebook-ads-falsely-claim-labor-wants-to-tax-cars
    David Crowe reports that motorists would save $27.5 billion in petrol and diesel costs over two decades in a collective gain from Labor’s proposed fuel standards that the Morrison government has dubbed a “car-bon tax” on cars.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-vehicle-carbon-target-would-save-motorists-27-5-billion-20190410-p51coz.html
    Professor Julian Thomas tells us what Labor should focus upon in its announced NBN digital inclusion drive.
    https://theconversation.com/labor-will-prioritise-an-nbn-digital-inclusion-drive-heres-what-it-should-focus-on-115135
    It doesn’t come as a surprise that Labor’s plan for the NBN starts with a full-blown technical and financial review of the NBN, as announced by the Shadow Minister for Communication, Michelle Rowland. Paul Budde, one of the world’s foremost telecommunications management and business consultants, reports.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/labors-nbn-plan-full-blown-review-plus-immediate-problems-tackled/
    Jennifer Hewett looks at the role property will play in the election.
    https://www.outline.com/3PXvxm
    Peter Hannam writes that Adani’s by no means got the project in the bag just yet.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/adani-still-has-a-long-march-ahead-before-its-carmichael-coal-mine-opens-20190410-p51cug.html
    New emails have emerged that contradict a statement given by Liberal Party fundraising chief Andrew Burnes to the Australian Stock Exchange about a controversial meeting between his company, Helloworld, and his friend and major shareholder, the Australian ambassador to the United States, Joe Hockey.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-have-spoken-with-joe-today-how-the-evidence-contradicts-liberal-fundraiser-over-helloworld-20190410-p51cvt.html
    Jock Collins says immigration policy will be a major issue in the 2019 federal election. We know this because immigration has featured significantly at every Australian election since the 2001 “children overboard” election.
    https://theconversation.com/dog-whistles-regional-visas-and-wage-theft-immigration-policy-is-again-an-election-issue-113557
    Emma Koehn reports that a Senate committee has found small businesses still need greater access to legal assistance to fight disputes with the banks and introducing a levy on financial institutions to provide assistance is a good idea.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/senate-report-backs-more-legal-assistance-for-small-businesses-20190409-p51c9e.html
    Doug Dingwall reports that Treasury secretary Phil Gaetjens has failed to turn up to budget estimates as more junior officials were sent to field questions from senators on Wednesday. Some Senators were most unimpressed.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6012224/treasury-boss-phil-gaetjens-an-estimates-no-show/?cs=14263
    In a worldwide collaboration scientists have for the first time got an image of a black hole – and it confirms Einstein’s prediction.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/first-ever-glimpse-of-black-hole-revealed-20190410-p51d0u.html
    The Disability Royal Commission announcement was an afterthought designed to offset the negative reception for the Morrison Government’s cuts to the NDIS ahead of the election, writes James Fitzgerald.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-ndis-the-disability-royal-commission-and-morrisons-crocodile-tears,12555
    The Coalition’s record on social policy has been big on promises, short on follow-through write these two academics.
    https://theconversation.com/the-coalitions-record-on-social-policy-big-on-promises-short-on-follow-through-114611
    Here’s why well-intentioned vegan protesters are getting it wrong.
    https://theconversation.com/heres-why-well-intentioned-vegan-protesters-are-getting-it-wrong-115224
    After an overwhelming vote in parliament the banning of a range of rifles will become law in New Zealand less than a month after the massacre that prompted the swift change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/new-zealand-passes-gun-law-banning-high-powered-rifles-20190410-p51cz8.html
    Banks face a fresh showdown with shareholders over executive pay and risk copping second “strikes,” senior bankers warn, after the regulator urged boards to put less weight on financial targets when paying bonuses.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/bankers-fear-more-strikes-in-exec-pay-showdown-20190410-p51cmt.html
    Greg Hunt does the right thing and slams mental giant Anthony Mundine over his antivax comments.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/extremely-dangerous-a-peanut-anthony-mundine-slammed-over-anti-vaxxer-stance-20190410-p51czu.html
    Lou Dargan examines this week’s High Court decision that went to defining what constitutes political protest.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/high-court-decision-could-spell-trouble-for-the-right-to-protest-20190410-p51cun.html
    In a related matter terminally ill patients could be protected by new safe access zones at hospitals to prevent harassment from activists protesting against voluntary euthanasia. The Andrews government says it will “carefully consider” whether protest buffer zones – such as those in place at abortion clinics – were needed to protect patients.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/new-safe-zones-floated-to-protect-terminally-ill-patients-from-anti-euthanasia-protesters-20190410-p51cyj.html
    Michaela Whitbourn explains how a report from the Australian Law Reform Commission recommended that the government should establish family courts “in all states and territories” and abolish federal family courts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/push-to-abolish-federal-family-court-and-return-power-to-states-20190410-p51ctk.html
    Radio broadcaster Tim Brunero lifts the lid on the bullying culture at 2GB.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-radio-station-built-on-bullying-20190408-p51c6f.html
    Jane Gilmore warns us about the dangers of couple counselling for domestic violence. This was given a boost in the recent budge. She says one of the government’s strategies to end men’s violence against women is going against expert advice to fund a dangerous practice implemented by organisations that admit they do not have the skills to keep women safe from violence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/a-disaster-budget-funds-for-couples-counselling-criticised-20190410-p51cqc.html
    According to Suzanne Neilsen prescription monitoring is here, but we need to tread carefully to avoid unintended harms.
    https://theconversation.com/prescription-monitoring-is-here-but-we-need-to-tread-carefully-to-avoid-unintended-harms-114969
    Are the Tory Brexiteers starting to crack?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/10/tory-brexit-peter-oborne-leaving-eu
    Jess Irvine reflects on her 12 months without Twitter and is pleased she made the decision to get out of it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/twitter-was-like-a-wild-teenage-party-i-had-to-leave-20190410-p51cwa.html
    How Ireland’s attempts to secularise its schools have turned to farce.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/10/ireland-secularise-schools-catholic-dublin-divestment
    Bloomberg declares that we’re not even close to the next great recession.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/no-need-to-panic-we-re-not-even-close-to-the-next-great-recession-20190410-p51cw6.html
    But Mike Bruce writes that the IMF has warned that the world economy is looking grim in 2019, but Australia’s is looking even grimmer.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/04/10/imf-slow-growth-australian-economy/
    More from Bloomberg as it says Trump’s trade wars aren’t over yet.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trump-s-message-to-the-world-my-trade-wars-aren-t-over-yet-20190410-p51clz.html
    Joseph Stiglitz opines that Trump will leave a legacy of selfishness and dishonesty.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/10/trump-legacy-selfishness-dshonesty-attack-pillar-society

    Cartoon Corner

    A ripper from David Pope!

    David Rowe launches a new Chinese Restaurant.

    Cathy Wilcox and the fickleness of politics.

    Andrew Dyson on the same subject.

    Alan Moir kits out Morrison for the election.

    John Shakespeare with Morrison’s coal connection.

    from Matt Golding.







    Mark David has three for us today.



    A classic from Peter Broelman!

    Jon Kudelka releases the new Vegan Ute.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/dceecd39cf0a3f72022f59bffa29009f?width=1024

    From the US





  7. Laura Tingle:

    While you were sleeping: PM flies to Canberra to go see Gg this morning for May 18 election; Netanyahu scrapes back; Theresa May something something Brexit;first ever photo of a black hole

  8. In the excitement of a new election, we must not forget the effects of global warming.

    A group of 23 former emergency services chiefs has urged the federal government to act on climate change, warning that natural disasters would continue to worsen unless drastic action was taken. In an open letter published on Wednesday, the signatories called on the next prime minister to meet with them so they could “outline, unconstrained by their former employers, how climate change risks are rapidly escalating”.
    Speaking to the ABC’s Radio National Breakfast program, former NSW fire and rescue commissioner Greg Mullins said “we’re scared, and we don’t scare easily”. “It’s just frustrating to hear the lip service being given to ‘Oh yes, we now believe in climate change and need to do something’ when every effort to do something about it is rubbished,” Mullins said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/09/former-fire-chiefs-warn-australia-unprepared-for-escalating-climate-threat

  9. It’s on.

    Let’s do this, people. I’ll see those of yo who can make it at the volunteer rally/ launch in burwood with Bill and Tanya on Sunday.

    Let’s get up and about, and return Labor to government.

  10. Wayne @ #21 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 7:16 am

    sky news say that coalition are back in the game to win the 18 May election and they say that the coalition will win that election.

    be careful Wayne. That’s a Chris (Dogbotherer) Kenny you’ve got plugged into your input socket – and it’s connected to a Lachlan generator. The smell is your circuits frying.

  11. Thanks BK. A bumper crop of dodgy actions to report.
    “Doug Dingwall reports that Treasury secretary Phil Gaetjens has failed to turn up to budget estimates as more junior officials were sent to field questions from senators on Wednesday. Some Senators were most unimpressed.”

    With the budget done there is no excuse for this. Just as ScumMo gave up in parliament once Phelps won her seat, Gaetjens also seems to have given up as Treasury Sec. He knows he is gone as soon as Labor win. He is too politicised and his appointment was not appropriate, regardless of his intellect.

  12. Troy Branson from the Australian is touting the LNP picking up seats in Tasmania. After saying expect Labor to win in an uphill battle for the LNP.

    Personally I think the LNP would be more likely to win seats in NSW.

    Poor Tassie is going to get saturated with Morrison visits.

    Thanks Tasmania for taking one for the team.

  13. Wayne says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:16 am
    sky news say that coalition are back in the game to win the 18 May election and they say that the coalition will win that election.

    ————–

    38 % combined primary vote if repeated on Election day The libs/nats will struggle to reach 55 seats

    Labor will be announced as the new government around 7:30 pm on election night

  14. It is amusing but very predictable to see one of the top stories in Melbourne’s Herald-Sun is all the terrible things that will happen because of the construction of the North-East Link. This from the same paper that backed the East-West Link heavily – I suppose people living in old terrace houses in Collingwood don’t matter as much.

  15. Thanks BK for the roundup.

    Antony Green notes that by calling the election today the writs would be issued Saturday.

    Why the delay?

    Does this mean that Senate Estimates still sits today?

    Does caretaker provisions kick in immediately?

  16. guytaur says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 7:24 am
    Troy Branson from the Australian is touting the LNP picking up seats in Tasmania.

    —————

    Same Troy Bramson and other news ltd/corp hacks predicted Labor would lose Batman , and 3 out of the 5 by-elections on super saturday

  17. This is why those 52-48 polls were a blessing in disguise. They are the last ones pre-campaign and I imagine there won’t be any movement towards the Coalition in any of the forthcoming polls – and a 53-47 while Morrison is in full shouty campaign mode would be priceless.

    Also waiting for April 25th – who will be the first Coalition figure to politicize that day and wrap it into the election campaign, and how many will follow suit? All the while deriding the politicization of the day of course!

  18. Liberals can’t win @Wayne

    They don’t have the numbers, or even the numbers for majority, I know Labor has just not sure how many.

  19. Call me a cynic, but would ScumMo go for this with a May 18 election date to minimise the time for youth to register to vote? If yes, then I think he will go 18 May. If no, I expect he will go for 25 May.

  20. Scott

    The desperation of a Murdoch hack to pretend its going to be competitive.

    I understand it. I had some wishful thinking when Abbott won.

  21. The reason why I predict the election won’t see Labor pick up more than say 11-14 seats, despite this current government being one of the worst in Australian history. Is because of Labor’s proposals for negative gearing and franking dividends reform. Since this hits those who are often the most angry against the Liberal party. So I predict centrist to centre-right Independents such as Zali Steggall and Karen Phelps to do well.

  22. sgh

    One of the reasons you call an election on a Sunday is to avoid all those questions you raise.

    In short, the Senate Commitees can do whatever they like.

  23. Also just heard on ABC24 that the Courier-Mailis saying that the Coaliton are being encouraged by good ‘internal polling’. Could this be from the same people who told Turnbull he was on track for victory – about one week before he was toppled by Morrison?

    To be fair, if they do internal polling within the Liberal Party members I would expect Morrison would be at least a slight favourite to win.

  24. Rocket

    You can predict that every Liberal candidate will be told to turn up at Anzac Day services and photobomb every scene to camera. They would wear uniform if they could, except that virtually none of them have actually served. Wars are things right wingers like to order other people to fight.

    I sometimes think the ancient Spartan constitution had a few good rules. One was that if a king launched a war, he had to fight it, and lead his men into battle, often in the front rank.

  25. RR

    Also waiting for April 25th – who will be the first Coalition figure to politicize that day

    They’ve been doing it since Howard arrived. I’m waiting for Scrott to take it to the next level of FMD! and work some politics into Easter.

  26. Certainly know your stuff Wiiliam. Very accruate summary of my seat of Corangamite in your election guide. Wont find anything like that elsewhere. PB well worth my small monthly contribution.

  27. What a sense of relief – finally a real chance to get rid of a bunch of total f@**wits.
    I would have preferred a flattening out of the Bludgertrack chart though. Oh well, can’t have everything.

  28. Worth repeating.

    Bernard KeaneVerified account@BernardKeane
    9h9 hours ago
    Having waited an extra 3 days to
    1. launch a scare campaign on EVs so hilariously inept it actually made the case for Labor’s policy
    2. be further embarrassed at Estimates and
    3. literally not mention the budget at all
    @ScottMorrisonMP will NOW call an election.

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