The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

Comments Page 7 of 21
1 6 7 8 21
  1. BK – “Here’s a REAL Coalition ute!”

    Nah – that’s a gassifier to run off wood chips during WWII fuel shortages.

    The LNP would use it to gassify coal.

  2. Amy is poking fun.

    “Here in Queensland, I’m listening, most importantly I’m hearing, and that means we’re doing,” Scott Morrison, November 2017, just doing what he does

  3. Annabel Hennessy is the latest her/his master’s voice in The West (news)paper.

    Today she opines that Morrison called the election “to capitalise on positive media coverage” in contrast to “negative media coverage of Labor leader Bill Shorten’s connections with a banned Chinese political donor”.

    Annabel is lazy and inept, to overstate her talents, perfect for this paper’s blind devotion to anything Liberal.

    Interesting to read twitter comments under editor De Ceglie’s account though. Tearing him a new one is understating the matter.

    Stokes has decided to go the Murdoch route of paying big money to propagandize on behalf of the Government. Money wasted I hope.

  4. Hardly ever hear from George Megalogenis yet suddenly here he was today in the SMH/Age now that the election has been called.
    He used to be on Insiders for economics commentary too, but now all we get is Stutchbury. Bill Mitchell would be even better. Either of the two would be a far better panellists than any of the three coming up this sunday.
    Surele Insiders can cast a much wider and better net than its usual suspects.

  5. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 1:38 pm

    @billshortenmp went to Deakin to kick off #AusVotes19 ..but @AustralianLabor stopping candidate @ShireenMorrisMs from being on radio this arvo. Hiding her from people whose votes she needs? So..@MichaelSukkarMP will be on @abcmelbourne on his own. 5pm#auspol— Rafael Epstein (@Raf_Epstein) April 11, 2019

    Why would Labor hide their candidate ?

    Why would you have a fresh candidate in a radio debate with an experienced opponent on the first day of the campaign?

    No wonder Emma rejected you.

  6. WayOutWest @ #300 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 11:25 am

    Both The West Australian and the Australian have been running Liberal claims about winning Cowan. If you believe them you can make a tidy sum as Ladbrokes have the Libs at $4.50. Labor at $1.25.

    Pearce will be really interesting. Labor needs to turnaround about 3500 votes and there has been a lot of residential development since the last Federal election in Yanchep and Two Rocks, so much so they’ve added a new polling station in the former. Booths in those places went Liberal last time but I’m not sure they will now, especially as at a state level the local Labor MP has been delivering big time.

    I was door knocking in Yanchep last week. Kim Travers will take the Yanchep booth on primaries.

  7. I’d assume the thinking is that the Electorate swung hard in the by-election to send a message to the LIbs that they weren’t happy about Turnbull’s demise. Now that the Government is seriously in jeopardy then the True Blue Believers will return.

    Not sure I’d be buying it. Once Electorates swing to Indies they do tend to stay swung for a couple of elections. I’m thinking Ted Mack, Oakshott, Windsor, and Kathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie. So, it might just be some wishful thinking to staedy the nerves.

  8. Barney in Vung Tau @ #313 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 1:49 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 1:38 pm

    @billshortenmp went to Deakin to kick off #AusVotes19 ..but @AustralianLabor stopping candidate @ShireenMorrisMs from being on radio this arvo. Hiding her from people whose votes she needs? So..@MichaelSukkarMP will be on @abcmelbourne on his own. 5pm#auspol— Rafael Epstein (@Raf_Epstein) April 11, 2019

    Why would Labor hide their candidate ?

    Why would you have a fresh candidate in a radio debate with an experienced opponent on the first day of the campaign?

    No wonder Emma rejected you.

    How hard can it be if you’re a competent candidate across your brief…?

    So, what are they hiding ..??

    It’s a bad look , in a crucial seat.

  9. grimace:
    “I was door knocking in Yanchep last week. Kim Travers will take the Yanchep booth on primaries.”

    So was I and I agree. Kim’s biggest attribute for voters is that she’s not a career politician. Her record in the police wins people over.

  10. I think Phelps will do well. She has been consistent with her positions and her voting reflects that. A lot of punters probably think she has hampered Liberals in parliament so a naturally Liberal seat will turn against her. However, she has done what she campaigned on.

    I’m also not sure how this ‘modern Liberal’ marketing gimmick will work in an electorate like Wentworth.

  11. steve davis says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 1:51 pm

    Sharma is $1.55 Phelps $2.40 on Sportsbet.

    Chasing their losses from the by-election.

  12. By my count Sportsbet has Labor winning 32 of NSW’s 47 seats. I assume if that actually happened they’d win the general election in a landslide (ending up on 90+ seats easily).

  13. You would think that those in Wentworth would have to give someone more than 6 months in the job before they considered switching.

  14. It comes across a bit like Raf is chucking a tanty because he didn’t get his way. She’s probably doing other things and can assure you she’s very active in the area. Saying she’s being “hidden” is quite hyperbolic. Labor offered Marc Dreyfus but he “didn’t ask for him”. Bit of hubris…

  15. Greg Jennet is a Mark Simkin clone – you remember – the one who bailed from the ABC (having done such a good job of boosting Abbott) to lead his media team.
    Their ABC.

  16. Gorks,

    The problem with the “Modern Liberal’nomenclature is that it’s the same old Liberals what brung them to the dance and who they will be going home with.

  17. a r
    Yes the mood on the ground is nearly always reflected in seat betting(results can sometimes be different though) If the trend continues then the Libs are history.

  18. Gorks @ #321 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 1:55 pm

    I think Phelps will do well. She has been consistent with her positions and her voting reflects that. A lot of punters probably think she has hampered Liberals in parliament so a naturally Liberal seat will turn against her. However, she has done what she campaigned on.

    I’m also not sure how this ‘modern Liberal’ marketing gimmick will work in an electorate like Wentworth.

    I can’t see how Phelps wouldn’t improve on her by-election winning margin.

  19. >>How hard can it be if you’re a competent candidate across your brief…?

    I saw Shireen Morris on Monday night at Box Hill Town Hall in the Deakin/Chisholm climate forum along with around 400 other people. First time I had seen her.

    If there were 2 phrases to describe her, it would be competent and across her brief. Very impressive speaker.

    Michael Sukkar and the libs Chisholm candidate didnt bother to turn up despite Sukkar asking for (and getting) the date to be changed as parliament was sitting last week. Had empty chairs with their names on them.

    Tonight is Kooyong’s turn with a sell out crowd of 600+ at Hawthorn Town Hall. I dont think Frydenberg will do the same thing as Sukkar.

  20. Jon Faine was going on with the same nonsense this morning when the Libs declined to proffer a spokesperson following the call of the Election. Jim Chalmers got the gig for Labor and his interview went pretty well. But Faine went on with the empty chair routine.

    All the Parties are clearly wary of “Gotcha”interviews and like to manage their candidate media time to their advantage.

  21. Bugler @ #327 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 2:00 pm

    It comes across a bit like Raf is chucking a tanty because he didn’t get his way. She’s probably doing other things and can assure you she’s very active in the area. Saying she’s being “hidden” is quite hyperbolic. Labor offered Marc Dreyfus but he “didn’t ask for him”. Bit of hubris…

    I doubt very much Ms Morris would choose to duck such a prime time PR space.

    Offering up Dreyfus casts a negative light on their candidate.

  22. Yeah, I’m not sure how the Liberals optimism in NSW after the state election is really borne out considering most of the marginal seats are in the few areas that swung to Labor in March – Page probably being the most notable.

  23. BK says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 1:59 pm

    I wonder how many Coalition ministers will make themselves available for head to head debates with their shadows.

    They’re the debates that should be a part of every campaign.

    I’d like to see only two leaders debates, beginning and end, with the Minister/Shaddow debates in between.

  24. sustainable future @ #304 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 1:33 pm

    BK – “Here’s a REAL Coalition ute!”

    Nah – that’s a gassifier to run off wood chips during WWII fuel shortages.

    The LNP would use it to gassify coal.

    I lived in Concord West, within 2 kms of a coal gasification plant at Mortlake in Sydney for the whole of my childhood. Filthy, stinking, noisy eyesore. Two enormous ‘gasometers’. It only closed down in 1990. Togeteher with its twin in Waverton it supplied the whole of Sydney with gas for cooking and heating for over 100 years.

    The gasworks site is now the suburb of Breakfast Point, where 2 bedroom units change hands for $1.5 million. In 1988 you could have bought a 3 bedroom house just down the road for $100,000.

  25. Egad! When will these TV ads from the “Australian Government” be gone??

    —————–

    Just wondering exactly WHAT qualifies as “ceasing government advertising during the caretaker period”?

    Actually ceasing RUNNING the ads, or merely ceasing BOOKING them?

    And, if the latter, might this mean that government advertising will grace our screens right up until the election, as long as it was *booked* before today?

  26. Regarding Phelps (and Rebekah Sharkie) as we know once a successful independent gets a high profile they are very hard to shift, as Peter Andren, Ted Mack, Wilkie and others have proven over a long time. One major runs dead against them and they are almost impossible to shift on preferences. I see no reason why Phelps or Sharkie would buck the trend. Both have large groups of supporters too.

  27. GG @1:17

    “Days late and in small print.”

    The correction should be as prominent as the original headline.
    I’ve often noticed in the Daily Rupert that the headline and first para are often more slanted and biased than the article as a whole. Of course, that’s as far as many, possibly most people read.

  28. I lived in Concord West, within 2 kms of a coal gasification plant at Mortlake in Sydney for the whole of my childhood. Filthy, stinking, noisy eyesore. Two enormous ‘gasometers’. It only closed down in 1990. Togeteher with its twin in Waverton it supplied the whole of Sydney with gas for cooking and heating for over 100 years.
    _____
    I can still remember the smell of reticulated coal gas redolent of the horrible smelling mercaptan used to mark its presence.

  29. On the electric car policy, its a small point in the scheme of things but there is aso a big opportunity for electric buses. Each capital city has a fleet of at least 500 to 1000+ buses, some of which have been locally assembled in the past. E buses are a much bigger current market reality than over hyped trackless trams. For example Paris buses will be fully electric by 2025. THis has big benefits for inner city smog and passenger comfort as well as GHG emissions.
    https://www.ratp.fr/en/groupe-ratp/newsroom/bus/ile-de-france-mobilites-and-ratp-launch-biggest-tender-europe-buy-electric

Comments Page 7 of 21
1 6 7 8 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *