The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

Comments Page 4 of 21
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  1. From Scott Morrison’s presser:

    “So under our policies, if you’re having a go you’ll get a go. And that involves an obligation on all of us to be able to bring what we have to the table.

    It doesn’t matter what level of ability you have, what your means are, where you live in this country. It matters that we all bring our best.”

    So, from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs?

  2. Mundo @ #141 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:48 am

    BB
    I think Labor has trouble spotting the obvious tactic….
    When I’m fighting Tories and swingers I find the history lesson in social and economic reform post WWll and Labor’s role in creating a modern progressive nati N by running through a list of the most salient ones is a killer tactic in the fight against apathy and ignorance
    I always end with the question ‘seriously, would you recognise Australia if none of these things had happened?
    It would make a fantastic ad campaign.

    Mundo,

    Your track record here is to go to water at the first fusillade of grapeshot. I’m going to trust the Labor professionals and campaign team who seem to have the ALP in sight of victory.

  4. Jen,

    I think a fair few people in reid will be pissed off that Laundy has gone, and in the way Turnbull was dealt with. Hopefully it’s enough.

  5. I can’t see where Chuka’s band of spivs fits in here. Perhaps, given how nutty the Tory party is, UKIP are the centrist party now.

    Westminster Voting Intention:
    LAB: 40%
    CON: 31%
    LDM: 8%
    UKIP: 8%

  6. Boerwar @ #134 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:37 am

    GG
    ‘So the pollies received a pay increase recently. Who was sacked as a consequence?’

    Turnbull and JBishop got demoted. Does that count?

    Shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic and printing new stationery doesn’t change the fact that the positions previously occupied by them are filled by others. No jobs were taken by the general wage rise of our pollies

  8. The big factor in labors favour will be that people will expect them to win.

    I am expecting the think to be something along the lines of: If I were in a marginal seat, do I wish to support a member who is likely to be in opposition or in government? Because if we back the winning side, we will likely get a lot more locally if we have a member who is in government.

    The swing could well be on if this is factored in.

  9. JM
    “So under our policies, if you’re having a go you’ll get a go. And that involves an obligation on all of us to be able to bring what we have to the table.’

    What the Coalition brings to the table:
    1. Precarious employment.
    2. Record low wages growth.
    3. Record household debt.
    4. Record precarious employment.
    5. Unemployment and Underemployment over 10%.
    6. Unpunished wage theft.
    7. Unpunished Super theft.
    8. Penalty rates gutted.

    Under the Coalition, if you are a worker and have a go, the Coalition will get you and gut you.

  10. On Brexit, maybe it’s worth noting the date for Halloween, and the Brexiteer’s recent tactics to undermine May by promoting EU disruption if the UK stays. (That Rees-Mogg character does have a passing similarity to the Jack in Nightmare before Christmas.) Possibly the only way to prevent a Hard Brexit (that most don’t want) is yet another election, which could split both the Tories and Labour. What a mess.

  11. Well spotted!

    chris zappone
    @chrizap
    Just me or is it ironic that both Wikileaks and Trump gang are pointing to internal spying schemes in the same 24 hour period?

  13. Andrew_Earlwood @ #89 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 8:32 am

    We have a choice: be preoccupied with virtue signalling totem issues like thermal coal exports, or focus on the main game: withdrawing from live meat exports and hence stopping, indeed reversing land clearing.

    Actually, all these are necessary – but of them all, shutting down thermal coal-fired generation is quicker, easier and gives a better “bang for buck” in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    Labor would do well to stop trying to defend our coal exports, which make us (by my calculations) the fifth most polluting country on the planet.

  14. It appears that while the parliament has been prorogued today, the writs will be issued some days later – maybe on Saturday. Thus, the full election timetable cannot be released by the AEC and close of rolls advertising cannot begin. Is separation of these two functions a first? If so, my cynicism hardens.

  18. For all the Bludgers on Twitter this is a good account to follow:

    Ladbrokes Politics
    @LadbrokesAuspol
    ·
    Apr 9
    MARGINAL SEAT WATCH – #AusVotes2019 – DICKSON

    @AustralianLabor
    favourite to win North Brisbane seat of Dickson currently held by
    @PeterDutton_MP

    Labor $1.33
    LNP $3

    MARKET: (link: https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/sports/politics/74364543-australian-politics-federal-election-queensland-seats/74364543-australian-politics-federal-election-queensland-seats/) ladbrokes.com.au/sports/politic… …

    #auspol #dutton #dickson #newspoll #AusVotes #auspol2019

  19. The Leader of the Opposition, Bill Shorten is in Melbourne today and will join Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek to discuss Labor’s Fair Go Action Plan, 11:30 AM #ausvotes #auspol

  21. Joanne Murphy @ #151 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:51 am

    So, from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs?

    No, you’re being too charitable. The actual position is more like:

    “From each regardless of their ability, to each the same outcome”.

    “If you have a go (no matter what level of ability you have), you get a go”.

    Everyone gets the same go, even if they suck when they’re having a go, and even if another go isn’t what they need in return. Compared to that, Communism would be strictly an improvement.

  23. Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut
    2h2 hours ago

    So the reason to delay to Thursday was:

    To make a stack of Lib mate appointments,
    Have the Treasury Sec snub estimates
    Approve Adani
    Avoid having CSIRO appear before estimates

  27. brigid glanville @brigidglanville
    2h2 hours ago

    http://smh.com.au/national/frene … via @smh it must be official it’s in print. … I’m looking forward to working in an important sector, education. I’m the new director of policy and strategy for the NSW Education minister. I farewell Aunty after 2 fabulous decades. Time for a change

    The link doesn’t work for me, but if it’s true, is that another ABC reporter coming home to roost?

  30. “To pay someone more, you’ve got to sack someone else to do it”
    Don’t worry, we are going to do that after 18 May, Scomo.

  31. Late Riser says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 9:59 am
    “On Brexit, maybe it’s worth noting the date for Halloween, and the Brexiteer’s recent tactics to undermine May by promoting EU disruption if the UK stays. (That Rees-Mogg character does have a passing similarity to the Jack in Nightmare before Christmas.) Possibly the only way to prevent a Hard Brexit (that most don’t want) is yet another election, which could split both the Tories and Labour. What a mess.”.

    No. Jack Skellington had some humanity and learned lessons from his mistakes.

    Brexit IS a mess. No easy way out that I can see.

    Aussie Election. At last. I can see a way out here.
    From SA I am interested is my electorate (Boothby), my old electorate (Sturt) and the Adelaide Hills.

  33. Yep.

    Schtang
    @Schtang
    ·
    Don’t forget the Liberal Party are also backed by the petroleum industry – that is why
    @ScottMorrisonMP

    @SenatorCash
    have been attacking Electric Vehicles #auspol #AusVotes19

  34. Just to confirm, the writs were issued at 8:29am today. So the Government is officially in caretaker. That has to be some sort of record.

  35. Be interested to see if, now an election is called, Slow-Mo and the Lib’s vote starts to tank. People will do a re-set and decide this mob have done their dash and deep-six them. Three lib-leaning voters have told me recently they could “never” vote for him. His inadequacies as PM totally dwarf everything else in the election. I’ve never really experienced that before.

  38. PaulTu, thanks for the reminder of Jack’s true nature. I was remembering the gawky physical aspect. Rees-Mogg is straight out of Monty Python.

  39. A few late changes to the Electoral Act – there was some publicity about the increased obligations on candidates to file details about their citizenship, etc, but there are also some changes intended to streamline the counting process. Nicely summarised at
    https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/australian_electoral_system/modernisation-legislation-changes.htm
    Activists please note the one about the 6m exclusion zone now applying to prepolling as well as election-day polling places.

  40. It is interesting that the WWII generation of poms (now almost extinct) were strongly pro-European. I know a woman who is about 87 now and is as racist as they come. But she says its stupid to leave Europe now. It’s the cossetted boomers who never fought during the war who are so steadfastly anti-European. Rees-Mogg has had a charmed life and is happy to sit around pulling the wings off butterflies

  41. “Actually, all these are necessary – but of them all, shutting down thermal coal-fired generation is quicker, easier and gives a better “bang for buck” in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

    Sorry, but there is next to zero ‘bang for buck’ re: greenhouse emissions if we do anything regarding coal – mining it, using it, exporting it unless it is part of a coordinated effort by all relevant international actors:

    In saying that I want to make it clear that I fundamentally agree that Australia should transition out of coal: the first order of business is to ensure that no new coal fired power stations are built. The second order of business is to run off the existing coal power stations as soon as practicable (the Greens say by 2030, but unless there is an accelerated global deal I reckon that 2050 is probably ok – which should be hard to achieve as the last existing plant is due to decommission by about 2055 anyway). The third order of business is to exit the export game (within that broad heading we should not be opening any more new mines, especially in the Galilee) BUT let’s be honest – we are only shuffling the deck chairs unless the major global coal consumers get out of coal.

    In the meantime preserving and enhancing our global lung – our bush serves a great purpose in combating global warming -mitigating run off into the reef whenever there is a category 3 storm hit FNQ. Further it is an essential ingredient in preserving unique biodiversity of this continent (although not the only factor by any means).

    Ultimately I think we need to both reduce or emissions (clean air is a health bonus in itself) to be a good international citizen and to build the case for other international actors to do the right thing as well stop and reverse land clearing.

    However I want far more emphasis in the debate given to land clearing. The Adani debate is a classic case: most of the hit button issues that the Greens bang on about relate to emissions and the direct pollution threat that transporting through an east coast port pose to the reef. OK – but IMO transcending all of those issues is the threat to the Galilee Basin itself. I suspect the problem is that the Galilee isn’t sexy to Melbourne bohobos in the way that the reef is – it’s just scrub. It’s hot and fly blown. It’s not quite the same experience one would get when sipping mojitos with mummy and daddy merchant bankers at Qualia on Hamo during Race Week. Further more that fly blown scrub lacks a hashtag in the way that #climatechange does. Yet the preservation that scrub is absolutely vital to the environmental well being of the continental and also a vital bit of natural kit to mitigate the effects of global climate change. The real threat of Adani is not emissions – it is that it will irrecoverably open up the Galilee to other mines (hello Gina, hello Clive) AND wait for it … beef cattle grazing: once the rail line is built there will be nothing to stop the largest cattle export business that we have seen to date being developed and millions of hectares of vital native Bush will be cleared. Just like that!

  47. Labor $1.16
    LNP $4.85

    Dickson ALP 1.43
    Dutton 2.85

    Warringah Abbott 1.80
    Steggell 1.90

    Boothby ALP 1.60
    Flint 2.20

    Mayo Sharkie 1.14
    Princess Georgina 5.00

    Number of ALP Seats (current 69)

    66-70 $7
    71-75 $7
    76-80 $5
    81-85 $2.65
    86-90 $3
    91-95 $5

  48. Election at last!

    Just flicked on ABC24 to hear Greg Jennett outlining Shorten’s role in the the Rudd/Gillard leadershit. I’m so glad we’re going to have Greg take us through the election 😛

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