It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.
Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.
Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.
@A R
More than six years, we must not forget the incompetence of the Howard-era FTTN between Optus led plan vs Telstra plan vs that other mob.
And all way back to early 2000’s with senate led broadband inquiry that actually recommended FTTP rollout!
And Telstra at the time said ‘Five Minutes to Midnight’…
The Electric Vehicle Epoch is soon upon us, Suck it up Scotty 😡
from https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/apr/11/australian-election-campaign-2019-officially-under-way-politics-live
Labor is at $1.16 to win, with the Coalition now at $4.85
Punters have their money on Labor winning 94 of the 151 seats, with the Coalition reduced to 51 and the remaining six headed to independents and minor parties.
The Coalition has been improving in the opinion polls?…. Really?… The results were strongly delivering a 51% for the ALP in the opinion polls when Turnbull was PM…. Now, after Turnbull’s “assassination”, they are delivering 52%-plus for the ALP…. What kind of “improvement” is that?
It is clear that with Morrison the Coalition have gone from bad to worse… So, we can now only wait for the actual results on election day…. 🙂
Loving the ABC Peter Ryan Jennifer Westacott interview.
“Has the Morrison Government been mean for not raising Newstart?’
Election on we get a fair question
“The Electric Vehicle Epoch is soon upon us, Suck it up Scotty ”
Lol! I think the Ray Wills who did that graph is a guy i know. Good Bloke. 🙂
However i reckon in an Australian context we will still have hybrids after 2025. Ammonia / Hydrogen hybrids though.
That last comment was for Rex 🙂
C@tmomma, re: John Hewson:
“politics has become an opportunistic, short-term game of point scoring and blame shifting, indulgent, and mostly negative, but our political masters now seem to have lost their moral compass.”…
That’s fully true of the Coalition under Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison…. not so of the ALP under Shorten!… What Shorten is going to deliver is real Social Democratic change, a strong departure from the bankrupt Neoliberalism and therefore a concrete alternative to the Coalition. Finally, those who brainlessly repeat that “Libs and Labs are just the same” will have to change their broken record….
Yesterday the late afternoon semi-shockjock on 2CC (Canberra redneck radio) was shot down by the editor of Wheels magazine over EVs. The radio fellow was clearly anti EV but the Wheels editor politely said EVs were the way of the future and supported Labor’s policy to support an EV industry in Australia. He added that government support for proper infrastructure (charging points etc) was also vital.
“Bill ShortenVerified account@billshortenmp
36m36 minutes ago
Good morning from Moonee Ponds! I’m ready to deliver a fair go for Australia. Who’s with me?”…
…. Not less than 53% of the People of Australia!
Good luck everybody. This has to be a turning point for Australia.
Hi everyone
The interesting question is obviously that of how the Liberals could possibly hang on to government.
It seems to me almost inevitable that they will lose at least a couple of seats in Brisbane and most likely one more in Perth, so they’ll need to pick up 6-7 seats elsewhere and also hang onto their two very marginal Victorian seats.
The obvious play is to go hard at the three northern Tassie seats, Western Sydney, Herbert and perhaps the NT. Simon Benson’s report that they think they can win back Cowan seems fanciful to me, and might be more about rallying the troops to sandbag their other WA seats than about any real expectations.
Western Sydney is the key IMO. I expect the Libs to do better here than many would hope/expect. As I have posted often in the past, I believe that Labor has either 1) seriously underestimated how badly their taxation policies and potential softness on border protection will play among the rapidly-growing constituency of East Asian and South Asian migrants, as well as other aspirational voters or 2) has access to internal polling that shows that these policies are going to be such a winner among other constituencies that they won’t need the votes of the aspirationals (but are there large numbers of swinging voters who aren’t aspirationals?).
Anyway, a really interesting election coming up. I predict it will be very close, and that a hung parliament is a very strong chance.
Thanks BK for todays roundup.
and
from — The Australian —
some — must miss items —
Now that we will not be having the taxpayer funded adds inflicted upon us – what gems will be delivered over the next weeks 📺 ❓
🙈🙉🙊
On Lib confidence… I read Citizen Soldiers by Stephen Ambrose recently, wherein he interviewed some German soldiers involved in the Battle Of The Bulge.
They had been confident too, not of victory, but of being able to at least bloody the Allies’ nose for a few weeks, and to at least be doing something other than defend a hopeless position. As it turned out, the Bulge was a complete disaster for Germany.
So take heart brothers and sisters, the confidence you’re seeing is born of the same bravado you witness when you have an unwinnable position, or an unsaleable product to sell.
Just took a look at the projected state results on Bludgertrack and and very surprised with a couple of the results. The coalition only losing two in Victoria and One in WA since 2016 really stand out to me. Wasn’t Victoria being labelled the ‘bloodbath’ state by some in the media – where the election could just about be decided on its own – and what happened to the predictions of three, maybe four in WA? All of that seems to have disappeared.
So Fran just told me Newspoll has the ALP primary at 34 and questions how can they win and govern on such a low primary.
Thanks for that Fran. Start off with a lie and extend it to a ridiculous conclusion.
Fran; fighting the good fight.
Seems to me that a fairly obvious tactic by Labor should be to point out forcefully the inaccurate projections of Budget Surpluses from the Coalition over the past 6 years. So why should this one be any different?
Tie this in with the recent appointments binge, where First Class passengers (aka failed Lib MPs, party hangers on, donors and ex-staffers) got spooned into the lifeboats with jobs way above their pay grade.
Doesn’t sound like “confidence” to me.
A_E
IMO
1. There is no necessary connection between land clearing and life beef exports.
2. Banning current clearing would be useful.
3. Most historic extinctions probably resulted from predation by foxes, cats and rats and introduced pathogens rather than clearing.
4. Grazing pressure and selective grazing by introduced herbivores has been, and is, an important pressure on selection plant species.
5. Competition with introduced (and disturbed native) environmental weeds is an added pressure.
4. The current wave of extinctions and near-extinctions are probably ‘lag’ extinctions caused by historic clearing, introduced predators, introduced pathogens, disturbed balances and increasing pressures from introduced plants and animals.
Using simple numbers of extinctions as a measure, IMO Global Warming will, by a very, very large margin, outdo all our current efforts.
Just one example suffices: something like 25% of the ocean’s biodiversity is coral reef based. On current trends it is highly likely that the Great Barrier Reef is gone.
While Australia’s terrestrial biota is highly evolved towards boom and bust responses, this is from an entirely different base from what Global Warming is delivering at an increase rate of change.
Much of what is happening right now is simply not being monitored because conservative governments have systematically gutted the scientific infrastructure required. They simply do not want to know.
I like to look at the BludgerTrack 2PP chart that appears on the sidebar of this page. Every single red dot since the last election sits above the 50% line. Not one poll in nearly 3 years (at least none tracked by WB) has had the LNP ahead. Nothing’s ever set in concrete, but this must be a sobering thought for the LNP heading into the next 5 weeks of campaigning. The size of Labor’s lead over that period is hardly earth shattering (apart from a couple of spikes), but it’s the consistency of that lead over a prolonged period which is most remarkable. Any LNP path to a win on May 18th is a very narrow one – a lot would need to go right for them, and a lot would need to go wrong for Labor. Based on the experience of the past 3 years, it’s hard to see that happening.
‘shellbell says:
Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 8:43 am
The power to control land clearing on private or non-commonwealth land may not fall within Commonwealth power unless there is a corporate aspect to the party responsible for clearing (easily circumvented) or an overseas treaty we have ratified/can ratify (Franklin Dam).
I suppose the Cth may be able to impose a tax in relation to the activity.’
The Commonwealth could use various environmental triggers to prevent land clearing. For example, nearly remaining bit of natural bush contains one or more species listed under the EPBC Act.
Another useful technique the Commonwealth could use is to stop land clearing costs being a tax deduction and removing depreciations breaks from land clearing machinery.
Brexit decision extended until October 31.
I think Labor will win with around 75-80 seats my guess.
Enough for majority (current projections is 83 for 52-48).
Oh yeah!!
Scott Morrison is trying to run the coming election on Trust. So, when does Malcolm Turnbull call the Election?
The goal of the faux-left media, that is the ABC, Fairfax, Guardian etc, is not so much to actively campaign for the Liberals like News Ltd. Rather, to make ALP voters despondent about their party.
That is why you get examples like Fran Kelly described earlier.
The two sides to the right wing MSM coin.
If the Libs are going to be devoting time to Tassie, isn’t there an easy rebuff in noting they’ve had six years to deliver for the State and have done nothing?
Bushfire Bill @ #115 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:05 am
Thanks for that. I have the EBook and will fit it into my next to read list.
I like the following blurb
Fresh out of TNT – M1 rifle (listen to the ping as the clip ejects) – trench knife and trench shovel – just have to man/woman/people the barriers with our plough shares – prepare the ice cold Creaming Soda for May 18 and relax.
I know a climate biomodeller researching the effects of climate change predictions on plants in South Australia. We he was researching it, until the government cancelled his tenure.
As for clearing – there are so many pressures on native species. Having a large enough patch of native flora (weedy or pristine) and joined by corridors to others nearby, is one simple way to give our native species a fighting chance. So instead of consolidating the large patches and adding new smaller ones, protecting existing and encouraging the planting of corridors…. we just keep on clearing.
Nobody gets to do whatever they want on their property. It is not your sovereign territory, you are not the lord of it. It never has been that way. And it is no different for farmers or urban dwellers.
Alan Jones, Barnaby Joyce and their like are just rabble-rousers of the pitchfork kind. Far more dangerous than your average crim.
I’m picking Josh as the new Opposition leader. Tony will get a permanent gig on Sky, possibly partnering Peta. Peter will spend his days organising his relatively large property portfolio. Christian will return to Perth to lead the Opposition. Barnaby will replace Michael. Greg will become a lobbyist for big pharma. Melissa will be relegated to the back-bench, soon retiring to spend more time with her family, coming to terms as to why she’s labeled as the worst Environment minister ever. Lastly, Scott will be ordained a minister in the Pentecostal church, evangelising in such manner as to put the late Billy, G to shame.
What a remarkably stupid thing to say. But it’s all part of the fear campaign.
‘Confessions says:
Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 9:25 am
Brexit decision extended until October 31.’
Brexit indecision extended until October 31.
There is temporary boom in medical supplies companies as people stock up on medicines to avoid potentially running out.
When is Shorten’s first presser of the campaign?
This is really a test of the electorate. Will they buy this rubbish?
The Brexit indecision is a farce. It is obvious to everyone including the delusional brexiteers, that there is no deal better than what they already enjoy being part of the EU.
It has been the biggest own goal ever inflicted on a nation.
a r
Thr NBN cannot be salvaged without getting rid of thr board. A bit of a no-brainer that I’m surprised hasn’t been announced.
Victoria:
I found this interesting in today’s news – National Enquirer about to be sold off.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/national-enquirer-expected-to-be-sold-imminently-as-parent-company-faces-pressure/2019/04/10/07bb2d88-5ba5-11e9-9625-01d48d50ef75_story.html?utm_term=.a4cd9c0fb27a
I know people who have lost their job because other staff members were ‘happy’ to work a 60h week with unpaid OT.
LNP – Get paid less AND your mate gets sacked.
Simon² Katich® @ #126 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:31 am
So the pollies received a pay increase recently. Who was sacked as a consequence?
Okay, based on The Ghosts of Elections past…………let me make a few obvious predictions.
P1……….Between now and close of business, the major metropolitan dailies will do all they can to follow the requirements of their owners – essentially Murdoch and Stokes – to produce an election win for the LNP.
P2……….Any narrowing of polls will be trumpeted as “Closing the Gap………….hint, hint…………LNP must win.
P3……….The first week will be pretty bland, with just a skirmish or too, but the closer we get to May 18, the more desperate the LNP get the nastier will become the attacks on Labor.
P4……….Just prior to the media blackout, all above papers, will, in their editorial, come out in favour of the LNP. The wording will be along the lines of, look, we know things have not been that good, but things will get better, you can’t trust Labor and where is the money coming from………? Maybe not in that order, but mixtures of these sentiments.
P5…………..As a last gasp, The Australian, perhaps more than others, will tell us that the last opinion poll shows, “The government on track for a tough fight, but one it can win”…………….as its headline.
I am more than happy to be showed totally wrong with all this, but a quick look in the local West newspaper has the Three Amigos, Ken Wyatt, Steve Irons and Christian Porter from the LNP’s three most vulnerable seats in Perth – Hasluck, Swan and Pearce with their smiling faces and their opinions on the issues at the election. This was all done – thanks Sarah Martin – even before Morrison had gone to the Governor-General.
GG
‘So the pollies received a pay increase recently. Who was sacked as a consequence?’
Turnbull and JBishop got demoted. Does that count?
lizzie @ #132 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:29 am
It’s true for bosses.
The more staff get sacked, the bigger the bonus !
lizzie says:
Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 9:29 am
@SkyNewsAust
.@ScottMorrisonMP: To pay someone more, you’ve got to sack someone else to do it. That is the Labor Party’s policy. I don’t think anyone wants to get paid more as a result of their work colleague getting sacked.
What a remarkably stupid thing to say. But it’s all part of the fear campaign.
___________________________________
It’s true. Malcolm Turnbull had to be sacked to pay Morrison more!
Been playing with Antony Green’s swing calculator. Don’t need much of a swing for Labor to win, but we need a swing 3.2 in NSW for my seat of Reid to fall – am hoping we get it!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/federal-election-2019-antony-green-house-of-reps-calculator/10872122
lizzie @ #83 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 9:29 am
Quite right – remarkably stupid. However – this type of statement is intended for those unread – uneducated – unwise and ignorant enought to vote against self and community interest. I guess that would be the One Neuron Party and the like. 😎
I note other responses. Will these views get a run on TV this evening ❓ Maybe not.
Bullshit. To pay someone more, you just have to not be a greedy, selfish jackass fixated on personally retaining every shred of the disproportionate profit increases that have racked up over the past decade or so while wages flatlined. Distribute the gains more equitably and all the employees can be paid more while the owner/shareholders still get plenty of profit and nobody gets fired.
Though also, let them run with that argument. They’re basically saying that they don’t want wage increases for anybody. That’ll go over real well. 🙂
Jen
I wager that with Laundy going and taking his personal vote that Reid is going to fall to Labor.
BB
I think Labor has trouble spotting the obvious tactic….
When I’m fighting Tories and swingers I find the history lesson in social and economic reform post WWll and Labor’s role in creating a modern progressive nati N by running through a list of the most salient ones is a killer tactic in the fight against apathy and ignorance
I always end with the question ‘seriously, would you recognise Australia if none of these things had happened?
It would make a fantastic ad campaign.