The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

Comments Page 5 of 21
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  1. Lol my wife got in trouble doing prepolling for Labor in Balmain. She’s probably the world’s greatest saleswoman and was basically corralling people as they walked up the street, asked if they wanted to vote today because it would be busy on Saturday, and then walked them in while handing ALP material to them and telling them how good the candidate was.

    Had an electoral commission person come out and draw a chalk line around the polling place which she wasn’t allowed to go past.

  2. Holden Hillbilly says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 11:00 am
    “Labor $1.16
    LNP $4.85

    Dickson ALP 1.43
    Dutton 2.85

    Boothby ALP 1.60
    Flint 2.20

    Mayo Sharkie 1.14
    Princess Georgina 5.00”

    Wow! I thought you only got 3 wishes. I hope all 4 come true (and TA loses as well).

  9. Yes, a r, you can report anyone standing there and shoving PHON or Coalition HTV’s at you – but remember if you’re handing out Labor or Green or Animal Justice or whatever leaflets the same will apply to you – stay at least 6m from the entrance (however the presiding officer defines “entrance”).

    Could be worth having a copy of this with you in case you want to argue about fine details:
    http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/cea1918233/s340.html

  13. From GetUp.

    We can’t kid ourselves about who we’re taking on. Tony Abbott killed the mining tax, wrecked climate action and sabotaged his own party. Peter Dutton created the most powerful ministry in history for himself – and nearly became Prime Minister in a bloody coup.

    Christian Porter oversaw a Centrelink robo-debt scheme that defrauded tens of thousands of people doing it tough. Kevin Andrews has sat safely in parliament for 28 years, propping up coal and attacking people based on where they come from and who they love.

  14. And just in case you missed it:

    KEY DATES FOR THE 2019 FEDERAL ELECTION

    * Issue of writs – Thursday 11 April 2019
    * Close of rolls – Thursday 8pm 18 April 2019
    * Close of candidate nominations – Midday Tuesday 23 April 2019
    * Declaration of candidate nominations – Midday Wednesday 24 April 2019
    * Early voting starts – Monday 29 April 2019
    * Election day – Saturday 18 May 2019
    * Return of writs – on or before Friday 28 June 2019

  15. Listened to Tanya this morning. Had a very calm voice and talked about chaos, confusion, instability, etc. Bill’s ‘lack of charisma’ may well play to a party that will seek office by promising a return to stability. And Shouty McShoutface will also help when under pressure in debates etc.

    Will Shouty manage to scare some waverers back to the Coalition? Probably. But I don’t think it will be enough. And the more hysterical the Coalition gets with smear and dirt and yelling about the end of the world, the more it will convince enough voters in the middle who just wants a government that looks like it wants to actually govern and not be a rolling stunt.

    As for Morrison himself, I would not be surprised if Labor people almost characterised him as the guy the Liberals dumped Turnbull for, rather than PM in his own right. I suspect, from listening to how Tanya talked about the Abbott 2014 budget (she said Abbott, not Liberal), that Labor will talk about all three PMs, rather than the Liberals or the Coalition, as the campaign progresses.

    I’ve been saying here that the big issue that will win it for Labor is the Coaliton’s failure to explain the dumping of Turnbull – because the only explanation is internal Liberal party games and that explanation will feed into what the voters hate the most about governments. Labor learnt this lesson exceptionally well from the RGR years.

  17. GG – You must love Kate Miller-Heidke’s entry for Australia this year.

    It’s weird enough to get the job done.
    I’m still trying to work it out – I think that’s a good thing…

  18. If only we could get rid of Canavan and his ilk.

    The proposed Adani coal mine, which will be Australia’s biggest, has been granted unlimited access to groundwater by the Queensland government in a move farmers fear will drain huge amounts of water from the Great Artesian Basin.

    According to a copy of Adani’s water licence signed last Wednesday and obtained by Fairfax Media, the $16 billion Carmichael mine merely needs to monitor and report the amount of water it extracts under a permit that runs until 2077.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/barbaric-adanis-giant-coal-mine-granted-unlimited-water-licence-for-60-years-20170404-gvd41y.html

  21. GG: “So the pollies received a pay increase recently. Who was sacked as a consequence?”

    Mr. Morrison sought and received a pay increase. Mr Turnbull was sacked as a consequence

    It’s not that hard… (unless one is a ‘potatoe’)

  23. EB says Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 6:27 am

    Malcolm Roberts, the former chief of staff to Liberal minister Ian Macfarlane, to the Productivity Commission.

    It could be worse, it could be Malcolm Roberts, former PHON Senator from Queensland.

  24. Here’s Bill.

    Doing the presser from a backyard in Deakin after having a chat around the kitchen table with the householder.

    He’s every man. The hero Australia needs, but doesn’t deserve.

  27. E. G. Theodore @ #221 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 11:35 am

    GG: “So the pollies received a pay increase recently. Who was sacked as a consequence?”

    Mr. Morrison sought and received a pay increase. Mr Turnbull was sacked as a consequence

    It’s not that hard… (unless one is a ‘potatoe’)

    Cash in your chips comrade. There was a PM before. there is a PM now. All the positions are still in place. Sure there are different people in the jobs. But, the same jobs still exist. S, there is no nett loss of jobs caused by the Pollies payrise.

  29. Burgey
    says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 11:40 am
    Here’s Bill.
    He’s every man. The hero Australia needs, but doesn’t deserve.
    ________________________________
    I hope you are being sarcastic because that means you are not an idiot.

  31. TPOF says Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 11:25 am

    I’ve been saying here that the big issue that will win it for Labor is the Coaliton’s failure to explain the dumping of Turnbull – because the only explanation is internal Liberal party games and that explanation will feed into what the voters hate the most about governments. Labor learnt this lesson exceptionally well from the RGR years.

    I think dumping Turnbull also reinforces the Coalition’s inability to really address climate change and energy policy (something not helped by this week’s attack on electric vehicles).

  32. J341983
    says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 11:46 am
    Oh nath… save you self-righteous energy, it’s a long five weeks ahead.
    _____________________________
    Look. I can accept anything except for leader worship. Tell me it’s not nauseating.

  33. Greg Jericho

    If you are a former Lib not getting appointed to a such nice paying govt board this week, you must have really have pissed someone off

  34. nath says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 11:44 am
    Burgey
    says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 11:40 am

    Here’s Bill.
    He’s every man. The hero Australia needs, but doesn’t deserve.
    ________________________________
    I hope you are being sarcastic because that means you are not an idiot.

    Alternatively it would mean he’s not you, which would be a very good thing for him.

  35. Barney, for a teacher your sentence construction is appalling. No wonder you are forced to take your chalkboard to non-English speaking lands.

  36. Australians have a choice between Shouty McShoutface Morrison and a true Statesman like Bill Shorten. The choice is not difficult.

  38. nath (no capital – you aren’t worthy of one),

    Look at Bill here. Choosing the humble Australian backyard for his first presser.

    Cost of living. Medicare. Wages. Schools. The things which the average punter knows are important to them and their family. He’s in touch. He’s one of us. A leader for all of us, and for a decade to come.

  39. Amy R in the Guardian:

    Bill Shorten is walking though someone’s house at the moment. As is the accompanying media pack.

    He and Tanya Plibersek are in the living room, patting a puppy and talking to children.

    Bill Shorten and Tanya Plibersek are now sitting at the kitchen table, for a chat with the home owners.

    Side note – I would like to hire whoever cleaned this kitchen to go through and clean my house.

    “You must be hearing, that classic statement, that everything is going up but your wages,” Bill Shorten just said in this very natural and normal kitchen table chat with a million cameras around.

    For those wondering, I’m told the dog’s name is Fonzie.

  46. Shorten nailing all the issues. A very strong performance so far. Whingy Libs can just dream of having someone so ready to deliver on their campaign promises.

  47. GG: “there is no nett loss of jobs caused by the Pollies payrise.”

    I’m not sure what your point is.

    Often, when an executive grants himself a pay rise as compensation for sacking workers, there is ultimately a net increase in the number of jobs, in that:
    1 – “high cost” (and often unionised) workers are (initially) replaced by the same number of low cost workers. This creates budget space for the executive to increase his compensation.
    2 – However, it is then discovered that the unionised workers had high productivity (and a lot of corporate knowledge), which the new workers lack, and then some combination of the following occurs:
    a – more low cost workers are hired (= net increase in number of jobs)
    b – consultants are hired to fix the problem, including the bizarre practice of hiring back a few of the previous workers at three times their previous cost (= new increase in the number of jobs)
    c – offshoring is attempted, resulting on a vast increase in the number of jobs, but not in AUS
    d – employer contracts or even fails (= net decrease in number of jobs, finally)

    What it’s about is the quality of jobs (and work) as much (or sometimes more than) quantity. Do we want to be high quality nation or join Mr. Morrison in his race to the bottom? Presumably many on the left harbour a reflexive antipathy to my namesake’s work in the Fiji goldmine, but that was both an investment in (native Fijian) workers to improve the quality of their work (up-skilling, which is always smart policy from Labor / the ALP) and in consequence an early blow against racism

  48. Andrew_Earlwood @ #191 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 10:51 am

    In saying that I want to make it clear that I fundamentally agree that Australia should transition out of coal: the first order of business is to ensure that no new coal fired power stations are built. The second order of business is to run off the existing coal power stations as soon as practicable (the Greens say by 2030, but unless there is an accelerated global deal I reckon that 2050 is probably ok – which should be hard to achieve as the last existing plant is due to decommission by about 2055 anyway). The third order of business is to exit the export game (within that broad heading we should not be opening any more new mines, especially in the Galilee) BUT let’s be honest – we are only shuffling the deck chairs unless the major global coal consumers get out of coal.

    I guess you don’t realize that Australia is the worlds biggest exporter of coal by a large margin – nearly 40% of all coal burned worldwide comes from Australia **. And this will very likely increase further should Adani go ahead.

    Shutting down coal-fired generation has to be the number one priority, because it is the biggest single emitter of greenhouse gases, and also by far the easiest problem to solve (note, I’m not saying it’s easy – I’m saying its the easiest, of a whole bunch of very hard problems).

    Australia shutting down coal exports would be a global game changer.

    In the meantime preserving and enhancing our global lung – our bush serves a great purpose in combating global warming -mitigating run off into the reef whenever there is a category 3 storm hit FNQ. Further it is an essential ingredient in preserving unique biodiversity of this continent (although not the only factor by any means).

    As I keep saying – this (and other initiatives, such as electric vehicles) are necessary – but they are not going to stop us hitting 4 degrees warming. Shutting down coal-fired power generation ASAP – worldwide – just might do that.

    ** Source – http://www.worldstopexports.com/coal-exports-country/

  49. Yes, Greg Jennet – and his condescending folksy reassurances that the Coalition has a safe pair of hands, all leadership issues solved, good old Father Christmas ScoMo steering the ship – is becoming even more painful than usual.

  50. E. G. Theodore @ #247 Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 12:03 pm

    GG: “there is no nett loss of jobs caused by the Pollies payrise.”

    I’m not sure why your point is.

    Often, when an executive grants himself a pay rise as compensation for sacking workers, there is ultimately a net increase in the number of jobs, in that:
    1 – “high cost” (and often unionised) workers are (initially) replaced by the same number of low cost workers. This creates budget space for the executive to increase his compensation.
    2 – However, it is then discovered that the unionised workers had high productivity (and a lot of corporate knowledge), which the new workers lack, and then some combination of the following occurs:
    a – more low cost workers are hired (= net increase in number of jobs)
    b – consultants are hired to fix the problem, including the bizarre practice of hiring back a few of the previous workers at three times their previous cost (= new increase in the number of jobs)
    c – offshoring is attempted, resulting on a vast increase in the number of jobs, but not in AUS
    d – employer contracts or even fails (= net decrease in number of jobs, finally)

    What it’s about is the quality of jobs (and work) as much (or sometimes more than) quantity. Do we want to be high quality nation or join Mr. Morrison in his race to the bottom? Presumably many on the left harbour a reflexive antipathy to my namesake’s work in the Fiji goldmine, but that was both an investment in (native Fijian) workers to improve the quality of their work (up-skilling, which is always smart policy from Labor / the ALP) and in consequence an early blow against racism

    Um, Morrison stated that any pay increase would cost jobs. I have simply identified a recent situation where that did not happen.

    So, I think it’s you that has left the reservation in this instance.

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