Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A positive reception to the budget fails to move the needle on Essential Research’s voting intention reading. Also featured: a closer look at the budget response results from Newspoll.

As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has provided the third post-budget poll, and it concurs with Newspoll in having Labor leading 52-48, but in not in finding the Coalition’s improved, since 52-48 was where Essential already had it a fortnight ago. Both major parties are down a point, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 35%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation is down two to 5% – which means the residue is up fairly substantially, by three points to 10%.

The poll also agrees with Newspoll and Ipsos in finding a positive response to the budget, which was rated favourably by 51% and unfavourably by 27%. Respondents were presented with a list of budget measures and asked yea or nay, with unsurprising responses: strongly positive for infrastructure spending, tax relief measures aimed at those on low and middle incomes and the projection of a surplus, but much weaker on flattening tax scales. Also featured was an occasional question on best party to handle various issues, which does not appear to have thrown up anything unusual. Full detail on that will become available when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1069.

Backtracking a little to the weekend’s Newspoll numbers, I offer the following displays covering three of their measures in two charts, placing the results in the context of the post-budget polling that Newspoll has been conducting in consistent fashion since 1988. The first is a scatterplot for the questions on the budget’s anticipated impact on personal finances and the economy as a whole (net measures in both cases, so positive effect minus negative effect), with last week’s budget shown in red. Naturally enough, these measures are broadly correlated. However, respondents were, relatively speaking, less convinced about the budget’s economic impact than they normally would be of a budget rated so highly for its impact on personal finances.

Nonetheless, the standout fact is that the budget was very well received overall – the personal finances response was the second highest ever recorded, and economic impact came equal seventh out of thirty-two. There are, however, two grounds on which Labor can take heart. First, the one occasion when the personal finances result surpassed this budget was in 2007, immediately before the last time the Coalition was evicted from office. The second is provided by the question of whether the opposition would have done better, which if anything came slightly at the high end of average. For Labor to hold its ground here in the context of a budget that had a net rating of plus 25 on personal impact, compared with plus two last year, suggests voters have revised upwards their expectations of what Labor might do for them financially.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 8 of 16
1 … 7 8 9 … 16

  1. frednk@1:50pm
    In SMH comments section there are some LNP posters with names ‘enough is enough’, ‘Hacka’, ‘gc’ and ‘ gman’
    The comment you referred in your post reminds me of them. They always post ‘there is nothing to see here’ when ever LNP, Abbott or Dutton are in trouble.

  2. Red13 @ #280 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 12:27 pm

    I’m further told, though without any figures, that Liberal polling is dire enough to give pause to having an election in May. It appears they currently believe they cannot win.

    Currently? As opposed to “at any point over the past ~50 Newspolls”?

    Are they really dense enough that they 1) weren’t already aware of the polling situation, and/or 2) think that “more time” will help matters?

  4. Late Riser,

    As someone who’s had a fair bit to do with competitive aquatic sports over the years that’s really disappointing that anyone would do that, even because they think its a “joke” and “won’t do any harm”. I should drag him in front of the seven year old kid I’m working with who wants to be an Olympic swimmer and make him justify himself to him and why, just because of where this boy’s family comes from, he sees him as lesser.

    Disgusting.

  5. shiftaling, thanks for clearing that up. I learn something every day. 🙂 (Still seems like a pretty silly thing though.)

  8. mundo,
    So what? I was off by 2 or 3 seats only. The point I was trying to make was that I’d never been unduly ‘optimistic’ Labor would win.

  10. My sources are telling me that the Liberals are trying to talk Morrison out of May 25. That is, they don’t think there’s much point waiting any longer.

  11. Hmmmmm!

    Primrose Riordan
    (@primroseriordan)
    Former Liberal minister and lobbyist, Santo Santoro, has just updated his listing on the foreign influence register to include a heap of Chinese companies… pic.twitter.com/0jCaO2ienS

    April 9, 2019

  12. Bugler

    The WP OK connection was created as hoax a joke. From the Anti-Defamation League web site.
    .
    .
    The “OK” hand gesture originated as one of these hoaxes in February 2017 when an anonymous 4channer announced “Operation O-KKK,” telling other members that “we must flood Twitter and other social media websites…claiming that the OK hand sign is a symbol of white supremacy.” The user even provided a helpful graphic showing how the letters WP (for “white power”) could be traced within an “OK”
    https://www.adl.org/blog/how-the-ok-symbol-became-a-popular-trolling-gesture
    https://www.adl.org/blog/how-the-ok-symbol-became-a-popular-trolling-gesture

  15. Poroti,

    And I got sucked right in, despite knowing about the “circle game”. I think my impression wasn’t helped by the tendency for the Australian Swimming team to be brats.

  16. shellbell:

    Of that happy assortment, One Nation and the Lord Above might be best placed. That would mean two spots for each in the LC

    No, if the CDP come up with a seat out of the last 4 it’ll be their only one. They’re looking at about half a quota before preferences are thrown. One Nation on the other hand are indeed in the mix for a second seat.

    Most of the surpluses available are from left-ish parties, but then a lot of that is likely to exhaust – so it’s very hard to know exactly what’s going to happen.

    Result on Friday.

    The button push has been delayed until Monday.

  18. Correct me if I’m wrong but is Bandt’s argument essentially “Labor should compromise by doing exactly what we demand they do”?

    Labor can’t make ultimatums, despite actually being able to form Government but the Greens can, despite not having – at least based on current indications (see polling in Victoria) – the ability to so much as hold the sole balance of power.

  19. ”
    Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 2:25 pm
    TwoEyeHead
    ‏

    @TwoEyeHead
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    Peter Dutton, the latest Liberal politician found in the pocket of foreign donors
    #auspol #auspolcartoons #AusVotes2019 #election2019

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1115431803517411328
    ”
    What a surprise that our impeccable Home Affairs Minister is in somebody’s pocket?

  24. And I got sucked right in, despite knowing about the “circle game”.

    Circle Game? Like… soggy SAO? Or Bunny Ears?

  27. On the Guardian article on Bandt, Murphy left this part of Bandt’s answer to the very end of her article.

    Bandt said he was confident the parties could come to terms. “Given the experience of 2010 … with goodwill, we can get an outcome.”

    That’s why I think this may be Murphy making life difficult for the Greens. And Bandt helped.

  29. poroti:

    It’s true that it was started as a prank, but like a lot of the stupid alt-right symbolism the line between the facetious and the sincere has since blurred as it has been picked up but a lot of genuine white supremacists.

    Which is exactly how they like it, because it means they can engage in a bit of wink-wink signalling to each other while maintaining “just jokes, honest” plausible deniability should they ever be called on it.

  31. ‘Bandt said he was confident the parties could come to terms. “Given the experience of 2010 … with goodwill, we can get an outcome.”’

    I don’t care what lies the Greens tell about Labor. Bandt can forget about the Speaker’s job.

  33. shellbell:

    Ahh, well of the minor parties in the mix for those last few seats, the Shooters, CDP and AJP all have a continuing Councillor from the previous election.

  35. “Just blame the parties actually responsible for the decision, eh?”

    Yes, such as the Coalition and Labor. Try as they might, Labor cannot escape the fact that Adani is being allowed to happen on the watch of the Queensland Labor government.

    Aww they look so happy together! That’s one happy Labor premier and one happy Mr. Adani right there. Who knew screwing the environment could be cause for such a happy snap?!

  37. From what I’ve read, there is no chance that the Adani mine will get off the ground. Adani is just playing around and trying to line up a legal action. I don’t see why Labor would play that game.

  38. ‘antonbruckner11 says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 2:46 pm

    Toby Esterhase @ #360 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 2:14 pm

    My sources are telling me that the Liberals are trying to talk Morrison out of May 25. That is, they don’t think there’s much point waiting any longer.

    Sounds very plausible to me’

    Morrison will be waiting around for Jesus to tell him what to do.

  42. According to the ABC they have 9 more approvals to pass before it gets off the ground,if it ever dos.Adani wont be getting any money from Shorten, but Shorten said yesterday he wont stand in the way of any signed contracts neither.

  44. CC – Because nobody will lend it money, for a start. John Quiggin is very good on this. Have a look at his blog. The big money is in a court case against the Govt.

  45. I can understand why Sco-Mo thinks he’s walking with destiny. According to Hartcher he only had 12 supporters in the party room. Now he’s PM. If he hangs around, God will bail him out. He knows that.

  46. Oh no! A bitter former “high profile” MP who I’d never even heard of until 5 minutes ago is leaving the Vic Greens. Wouldn’t have anything to do with losing your seat would it? When people like me – a member of the NSW Greens – didn’t even know she existed until today I don’t think you can call her a “high profile” Green lol. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, whoever you are. Maybe if she’d actually made a name for herself when she had the chance she’d still be in parliament. Yawn.

  47. Cud Chewer @ #389 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 3:03 pm

    Er, why wont Adani get off the ground?

    Because the Adani coal is, relatively, of low quality, and the transport distances to port are much higher than alternative supplies. This means that more coal must be transported further to supply a given amount of energy. As an example, Hunter Valley ‘standard’ steaming coal has a heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg, while Adani’s crap is around 5,220. This means that you need to mine, load, transport to port, ship, and transport to end user from receiving port, 15% more black stuff. You also end up with twice as much ash to get rid of, after you have burnt it. All coals are not created equal.

  48. The damage the Coalition has done to the NBN will cost Australia for decades to come. All to keep uncle Rupert happy. I’m more than willing to call out Labor when they do something wrong but when it comes to the NBN they had the right idea. We need the original Rudd gov’s version of the NBN. Yes, it will cost a lot to fix the mess the Coalition has made, but doing nothing will cost Australia much more in the long term.

  49. The positive correlation between perceived personal benefit and overall economic benefit is an interesting one. I would have thought the correlation would be negative: tough economic medicine would benefit the economy while (temporarily) hurting the individual. I guess the average punter doesn’t distinguish much between the two.

Comments Page 8 of 16
1 … 7 8 9 … 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *