Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A positive reception to the budget fails to move the needle on Essential Research’s voting intention reading. Also featured: a closer look at the budget response results from Newspoll.

As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has provided the third post-budget poll, and it concurs with Newspoll in having Labor leading 52-48, but in not in finding the Coalition’s improved, since 52-48 was where Essential already had it a fortnight ago. Both major parties are down a point, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 35%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation is down two to 5% – which means the residue is up fairly substantially, by three points to 10%.

The poll also agrees with Newspoll and Ipsos in finding a positive response to the budget, which was rated favourably by 51% and unfavourably by 27%. Respondents were presented with a list of budget measures and asked yea or nay, with unsurprising responses: strongly positive for infrastructure spending, tax relief measures aimed at those on low and middle incomes and the projection of a surplus, but much weaker on flattening tax scales. Also featured was an occasional question on best party to handle various issues, which does not appear to have thrown up anything unusual. Full detail on that will become available when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1069.

Backtracking a little to the weekend’s Newspoll numbers, I offer the following displays covering three of their measures in two charts, placing the results in the context of the post-budget polling that Newspoll has been conducting in consistent fashion since 1988. The first is a scatterplot for the questions on the budget’s anticipated impact on personal finances and the economy as a whole (net measures in both cases, so positive effect minus negative effect), with last week’s budget shown in red. Naturally enough, these measures are broadly correlated. However, respondents were, relatively speaking, less convinced about the budget’s economic impact than they normally would be of a budget rated so highly for its impact on personal finances.

Nonetheless, the standout fact is that the budget was very well received overall – the personal finances response was the second highest ever recorded, and economic impact came equal seventh out of thirty-two. There are, however, two grounds on which Labor can take heart. First, the one occasion when the personal finances result surpassed this budget was in 2007, immediately before the last time the Coalition was evicted from office. The second is provided by the question of whether the opposition would have done better, which if anything came slightly at the high end of average. For Labor to hold its ground here in the context of a budget that had a net rating of plus 25 on personal impact, compared with plus two last year, suggests voters have revised upwards their expectations of what Labor might do for them financially.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 16
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  2. I do not know what Boomers did you Burgey but they did not do it hard enough.

    This is why there should be a “like” function on comments here.

  3. Burgey @ #284 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 12:34 pm

    Darc,

    I wouldn’t wish it on anyone to have to be there.

    Qld – The Woeful State.

    Look at Brisbane – all this coastline nearby with miles and miles of stunning beaches – so they plonk the State capital inland on a muddy, shitty river where, nearly 200 years later, they have to build a fake beach on the fetid, soulless river bank among the mosquitoes and cane toads.

    Worst city anywhere in the southern hemisphere. That’s why the busiest place in Brisbane on any given arvo is the Qantas Lounge at the airport – everyone wants out of the joint and no one wants to stay there. Let’s be honest, it’s a shithole.

    So much of a shithole that your hero, Allan Robert Border AO, made his choice to move and stay there. And one of your best mates did too. Your like one of these conservatives who rant on about Family Values and Gays; deep down you love it, you do it and you know it!

  5. red12 – I am disturbed to hear that ScoMo wants to govern by regulation until a November election

    Besides being very wearing, the cries of “fascist dictatorship” would gather steam and baring a miraculous catastrophe the Liberals would be annhiliated

  6. What I’ve been told, from within Labor is that the Budget’s not moved the needle at all.

    This is the real reason why Morrison hasn’t jumped yet.

  10. Ian Macdonald continues a tradition of culturally insensitive LNP Senators disgracing themselves in Estimates

    What a grub! Hope his ilk are not returned to the Senate ever again

  11. nath @ #298 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 11:22 am
    The fact that Dutton received no donations from Huang or that ultimately his department refused to let Huang back into the country is irrelevant when it comes to the fact that this guy, Huang, got to meet with Dutton after he gave $20000 to Dutton’s best friend, Santo Santoro.
    ____________________________________________
    It’s Dutton’s job to raise money for the Liberals. Paying for access has been afflicting both sides of politics for decades. If Dutton didn’t do anything for Huang then there’s nothing to see here.

    So where did the order for Sam Dastyari to perform the fast track of the Huang’s family’s citizenship approval come from then?

  13. darc,

    And yet, you left there to move here.

    Thereby lowering the collective IQ of both States, it has to be said.

    As for Ian McDonald – woeful. Anyone know which generation he’s part of, by chance?

  18. The longest gap between elections in Australia’s history was from 12/12/1906 to 13/4/1910, a period of 3 years 18 weeks. The Government lost. It remains the only election in Australia’s federal history to have occurred following expiration of a full three-year parliamentary term by the ‘effluxion of time’.

    Other ‘long’ parliaments were:
    – 1946 (Chifley): about 3 years 10 weeks (Government lost);
    – 1969 (Gorton-McMahon), about 3 years 6 weeks (Government lost)
    – 2004 (Howard), about 3 years 6 weeks (Government lost)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Australia

    I’m seeing a pattern here.

  19. J341983
    That is what I’m hearing about the Liberal polling as well.
    They are very disappointed with the results
    Billie
    Morrison has not settled on any date at all. But he has asked for information on other suitable dates from his two senior advisors.

  20. Brisbane’s a great city. Big enough to have everything you need, small enough that it’s all relatively close and there aren’t the congestion nightmares you find in places like Sydney. We get a nice winter that’s cold enough to provide a welcome reprieve from Summer but is rarely so cold to be totally miserable, and plenty of storms to cool things down in the hotter months. And the beach really isn’t that far away.

    Also, as much as people like to trot out the old “Queenslanders = backwards old conservatives” meme, its worth remembering that we have had near-continuous Labor governments since 1989.

  22. ratsak @ #298 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 12:47 pm

    I’ve said it before, but Turnbull is proving far more dangerous to his own side than Rudd and Abbott could have ever hoped to be. With Rudd and Abbott, their treachery was a means to regain the party leadership, or at least a comfortable front bench sinecure, and they therefore always had to play the role of the faithful party stalwart and be subtle about their white-anting, but Turnbull does not give a fuck. He’s content to just screw over everyone who screwed him over, and if that means he becomes a Liberall pariah, then so be it.

    Despite not standing up to the right wing of his party, I think a lot of moderates on both sides still have time for Turnbull and will listen to him. His interventions will probably be effective against Dutton and Morrison and hopefully Abbott.

  24. Just a thought on Malcolm Turncoat… if he had shown anything like this much gumption when he was actually PM, he would probably still be there.

    What a loser.

  25. Other ‘long’ parliaments were:
    – 1946 (Chifley): about 3 years 10 weeks (Government lost);
    – 1969 (Gorton-McMahon), about 3 years 6 weeks (Government lost)
    – 2004 (Howard), about 3 years 6 weeks (Government lost)

    you might want to check the results for those elections – the incumbent/government won each time.

  28. Just a thought on Malcolm Turncoat… if he had shown anything like this much gumption when he was actually PM, he would probably still be there.

    What a loser.

    Spines are for poor people. Or something…

  29. Maybe ScoMo is looking at taking over and dispensing with elections. At least until he wins a Newspoll.

    The Pentecostal God may have told him he is a second Cromwell, Lord Protector of the Commonwealth. 🙂

  30. “That picture isn’t Ian MacDonald”
    The picture is correct because it was Sullivan that uttered those words, not MacDonald.

  31. It’s almost one high profile Green per week casting them aside at the moment, isn’t it?

    What a beautiful thing it is to see.

  32. Player One @ #324 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 1:15 pm

    Just a thought on Malcolm Turncoat… if he had shown anything like this much gumption when he was actually PM, he would probably still be there.

    What a loser.

    Turnbull’s commentary is a transactional cost of doing him over. he’ll continue to entertain for some time.

    I believe his autobiography is coming out in May!

  35. Re SF @1:17.

    The year that I gave is the year in which the Parliament was elected, not that in which it was replaced. So the Howard Government won the election held 9/10/2004 and went on to lose that held on 24/11/2007, 3 years and 7 weeks (not 6 – my mistake) later. Maybe I wasn’t quite clear enough.

  38. What is the last day to call a May 25 election?
    It would be Easter Monday but does that being a public holiday change things? So election has to be called by Thursday week?

  39. C@tmomma
    says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 1:00 pm
    Interesting how ‘nath’ suddenly pops up to run interference for Peter Dutton.
    So where did the order for Sam Dastyari to perform the fast track of the Huang’s family’s citizenship approval come from then?
    _____________________________________
    It seems that Sam was the one asking for favours from Dutton re Huang. Maybe there’s more to be uncovered but I don’t want people getting my hopes up that Dutton has been exposed. Far from wanting to run interference for Dutton I hope there’s something he can be charged over. I just don’t want minor shit elevated to gotcha stuff, which you excel in. And then it never turns out that way..

  42. J341983 says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 12:57 pm
    What I’ve been told, from within Labor is that the Budget’s not moved the needle at all.

    This is the real reason why Morrison hasn’t jumped yet.

    We’re far too along in the electoral cycle for people to care about what anyone says. The undecided middle has made up their mind. They aren’t listening to anyone. This will be a “no-surprises-no-controversy” election.


  43. nath says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 12:49 pm
    …
    It’s Dutton’s job to raise money for the Liberals. Paying for access has been afflicting both sides of politics for decades. If Dutton didn’t do anything for Huang then there’s nothing to see here.

    Are you one of the guys pretending to be a green voter? It’s hard to keep track of the sock puppets?

  44. I think talk of an election later than May is Scott screwing with his opponents’ heads. Even Rupert couldn’t save him if he tried to delay a House election until until November, especially if he were seen to be hiding from Parliament. If he tried, chances are he’d lose a no confidence motion.

    Now Morrison would have no problem delaying by a week or two and screwing the AEC in the process to complete the Senate count quickly, even chucking massive amounts if money at the problem. If he saw any advantage he might go May 25 or conceivably June 1, but my money’s on May 18, called next weekend.

  45. According to Penny Wong in Senate estimates LNP government spent $136 millions. And Zed S refused to confirm or deny the figure.
    Can somebody clarify whether there was ever a more morally bankrupt, more incompetant and more corrupt government than the current federal government?
    It is absolutely amazing that this government is trailing ALP only 52-48 or 53-47.
    Is something wrong with the people or the MSM?

  46. Last night watching the Aus swimming championships being held in Adelaide I was startled to see what I thought was a White Power symbol flashed by one of the competitors. A few minutes ago I grabbed this screen clip of the moment.

    The full video is available on 7plus:
    https://7plus.com.au/australian-swimming-championships
    You have to sit through some ads then you can jump ahead to 1:07:50 and watch. At about 1:08:09 he does his thing. I hope he gets asked about it. Swimming Australia do not need this.

    EDIT: inserted the missing image

  47. Dead Parrot Society
    ‏

    @MyFirstCousin
    Follow Follow @MyFirstCousin
    More
    I have it on good authority Scott Morrison does not like to be called a HAPPY CLAPPER SLOGAN BOGAN so please be discreet when retweeting this.

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