Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A positive reception to the budget fails to move the needle on Essential Research’s voting intention reading. Also featured: a closer look at the budget response results from Newspoll.

As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has provided the third post-budget poll, and it concurs with Newspoll in having Labor leading 52-48, but in not in finding the Coalition’s improved, since 52-48 was where Essential already had it a fortnight ago. Both major parties are down a point, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 35%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation is down two to 5% – which means the residue is up fairly substantially, by three points to 10%.

The poll also agrees with Newspoll and Ipsos in finding a positive response to the budget, which was rated favourably by 51% and unfavourably by 27%. Respondents were presented with a list of budget measures and asked yea or nay, with unsurprising responses: strongly positive for infrastructure spending, tax relief measures aimed at those on low and middle incomes and the projection of a surplus, but much weaker on flattening tax scales. Also featured was an occasional question on best party to handle various issues, which does not appear to have thrown up anything unusual. Full detail on that will become available when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1069.

Backtracking a little to the weekend’s Newspoll numbers, I offer the following displays covering three of their measures in two charts, placing the results in the context of the post-budget polling that Newspoll has been conducting in consistent fashion since 1988. The first is a scatterplot for the questions on the budget’s anticipated impact on personal finances and the economy as a whole (net measures in both cases, so positive effect minus negative effect), with last week’s budget shown in red. Naturally enough, these measures are broadly correlated. However, respondents were, relatively speaking, less convinced about the budget’s economic impact than they normally would be of a budget rated so highly for its impact on personal finances.

Nonetheless, the standout fact is that the budget was very well received overall – the personal finances response was the second highest ever recorded, and economic impact came equal seventh out of thirty-two. There are, however, two grounds on which Labor can take heart. First, the one occasion when the personal finances result surpassed this budget was in 2007, immediately before the last time the Coalition was evicted from office. The second is provided by the question of whether the opposition would have done better, which if anything came slightly at the high end of average. For Labor to hold its ground here in the context of a budget that had a net rating of plus 25 on personal impact, compared with plus two last year, suggests voters have revised upwards their expectations of what Labor might do for them financially.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. 1/3 of Greens members have resigned in Victoria. People who have spent years fighting for Greens are resigning in disgust. Obviously, something is really rotten at the core of the party.

    Could Bandt be in trouble?

  2. antonbruckner11
    Don’t laugh, but I’m told that is part of his reasoning. He does believe God’s hand was in his selection and God’s hand will find him the way to win.
    He is running this show with advice from his CoS and another advisor, he does not consult with other Cabinet members on his plans. A cause of much angst amongest his fellow Parliamentarians and the Liberal campaign Office.

  3. “Could Bandt be in trouble?”

    He’ll have some company in the HoR soon, don’t you worry about that. The only people who think the Greens are in trouble are people who aren’t in the Greens and have no idea what’s really going on. The NSW election proved that you write off the Greens at your own peril. Yes, there has been problems in the Derebin branch in Vic, but believe me when I say that it’s isolated and the rest of us Greens around Australia really don’t care if some random branch member doesn’t like another random branch member. The branch is being cleaned out and fixed up. When mistakes are made they need to be addressed, which is exactly what’s going on internally right now. The tabloid gossip and speculation from the likes of the Murdoch media really is water off a duck’s back.

  4. Er, why wont Adani get off the ground?

    a) Heavier than air
    b) Not enough thrust – needs more of that Morrison grunt.

  5. If Morrison splits the election what are the chances an incoming senate would be even more difficult for the current government to manage.

    Let’s not forget another 6 months of minority government either, plus a lot of pissed-off ministers and other senior Libs who last week thought it was just about all over, and gave fairly unequivocal-sounding valedictory speeches to that effect.

  6. Red13 @ #403 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 3:39 pm

    antonbruckner11
    Don’t laugh, but I’m told that is part of his reasoning. He does believe God’s hand was in his selection and God’s hand will find him the way to win.
    He is running this show with advice from his CoS and another advisor, he does not consult with other Cabinet members on his plans. A cause of much angst amongest his fellow Parliamentarians and the Liberal campaign Office.

    Sounds right to me. When this is all over, people are going to be saying what a kook he was.

  7. On the NBN, it made me jealous to see, while in NZ, optical cable trenches being dug and the roll out of the cable itself to almost every little village and hamlet up and down the South Island. Massive employment, as well as the incredible connectivity and value-add it gave to these hitherto out-of-the-way places.

  8. It will be called Sunday. Only the clueless would think parliament would come back next week. I am pretty sure it will be a 5 week campaign, so May 25 should be out.

  9. ‘Firefox says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 3:40 pm

    The branch is being cleaned out and fixed up.’

    Just a short walk outside, comrade.

  10. Yabba I imagine you would be among the first to tell Christians to keep their faith to themselves. It seems you, on the other hand, have no problem making deriding comments about other people’s beliefs. For you to dismiss a belief shared by around half the world’s population so arrogantly is unbecoming for someone as educated as yourself. Maybe tone it down a little.

  11. The big money is in a court case against the Govt.

    Yep, this has long been the game. Get back as much of the sunk cost as they can by taking the Commonwealth to the cleaners.

  12. “Just a short walk outside, comrade.”

    Really? Is that all you’ve got? And here I was thinking that people on Pollbludger take politics seriously and were able to provide an informed and constructive debate.

  13. ‘Firefox says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 3:17 pm

    Oh no! A bitter former “high profile” MP who I’d never even heard of until 5 minutes ago is leaving the Vic Greens. Wouldn’t have anything to do with losing your seat would it? When people like me – a member of the NSW Greens – didn’t even know she existed until today I don’t think you can call her a “high profile” Green lol. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, whoever you are. Maybe if she’d actually made a name for herself when she had the chance she’d still be in parliament. Yawn.’

    Another example of the Greens ability to inflict the Stockholm Syndrome on unsuspecting members.

  14. The government would have to be made to call seperate Senate in May and House of Representatives in November elections. Because the former will be treated as one nation wide by-election. So the latest realistic date that government can hold, provided extra resources are given to the AEC to count the Senate votes in a shorter time that normal, is the end of May.

  15. @Firefox, it doesn’t matter how pretty it looks internally (and from externally it has looked anything but) if nothing sticking with the public.
    We should see pretty soon just how effective the Greens have actually been, instead of hearing about how effective the Greens /think/ they’re being.

  16. “Another example of the Greens ability to inflict the Stockholm Syndrome on unsuspecting members.”

    Nah. I’m just another example of a Greens member who hasn’t been totally brainwashed by the right wing controlled mainstream media. Don’t believe everything you read about the Greens, mate. We’re doing fine.

  17. Morrison’s attitude is that he thinks he is a marketing guru and the LNP’s problems are all about perception. So, full on sales and marketing are what is required to right the good ship LNP.

    His faith may bulwark his belief that he’s the best person to make judgements on how to win. But, it expresses itself in stunts, arrogance and the practice of continually turning over ideas until something works. His real problem is that he’s so up himself that he never misses and opportunity to miss an opportunity.

  18. ‘Firefox says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 4:03 pm

    “Just a short walk outside, comrade.”

    Really? Is that all you’ve got? And here I was thinking that people on Pollbludger take politics seriously and were able to provide an informed and constructive debate.’

    Take politics seriously? Informed and constructive debate? With the Greens?
    Let’s face the pravda, Tovarishch. Some times it is hard to tell the difference between cleaning up humans and liquidating humans, especially when we have sniffed out some false consciousness.

  19. @Firefox

    Vic Election result was poor with second consecutive decline in legislative council vote. Members and senior Greens are resigning en masse. Safest state seat is on a margin of a couple of points.

    Labor vote in Victoria seems to be strong. Chances are Labor will overtake Libs in seat of Melbourne and Liberals will likely preference Labor after their rhetoric on Greens/One Nation.

    I would say there is an outside chance Bandt may be in trouble.

  20. “@Firefox, it doesn’t matter how pretty it looks internally (and from externally it has looked anything but) if nothing sticking with the public.
    We should see pretty soon just how effective the Greens have actually been, instead of hearing about how effective the Greens /think/ they’re being.”

    Has there ever been a time when the Greens have been painted in a positive light by the mainstream media? Not really. People have literally been writing off the Greens for decades. It’s nothing new. It’s nothing more than wishful thinking, my friend.

  21. Daniel B @ #414 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 4:01 pm

    Yabba I imagine you would be among the first to tell Christians to keep their faith to themselves. It seems you, on the other hand, have no problem making deriding comments about other people’s beliefs. For you to dismiss a belief shared by around half the world’s population so arrogantly is unbecoming for someone as educated as yourself. Maybe tone it down a little.

    Latest estimates, 30% and falling rapidly, as the Paedophile Protection Societies of various types have been exposed and their revered perpetrators have been gaoled, and educational standards increase.

    It’s not derision, just wonderment at such widespread gullibility.

  22. Daniel B @ #414 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 2:01 pm

    Yabba I imagine you would be among the first to tell Christians to keep their faith to themselves. It seems you, on the other hand, have no problem making deriding comments about other people’s beliefs. For you to dismiss a belief shared by around half the world’s population so arrogantly is unbecoming for someone as educated as yourself. Maybe tone it down a little.

    I’m with Yabba on being dismissive of religion. It has caused enormous damage all over the world.

  23. GG
    Good point.
    It has been clear from some time that Morrison has a Mini Messiah complex. That thought first came to me when he was doing an early presser. He was walking around the stage, holding a mike, and doing some talking in tongues.
    He has this rather odd habit of talking both sides of the street at the same time and expecting people to believe both.
    IMO he should be encouraged to walk on water.

  24. Gorks, you should not confuse the left wing controlled Victorian Labor party with the right wing controlled federal Labor party. It’s much easier for a Greens voter to support Andrews than it is for us to support Shorten, that’s for sure.

  25. I wouldn’t be too complacent on the Greens retaining all their seats at the next election. According to Bludgertrack their vote is stagnant in most states compared to the last election and in the states they did best in – Victoria and WA – they are facing significant swings against them.

    The 5% swing in Victoria (if accurate and holds) has to come from somewhere and its not all that unlikely its in Melbourne, Cooper and McNamara as they have the most support to lose.

    I’m not sure the strategy of hoping continued gentrification ensures they hold steady in the HoR is really a great plan for long term success.

  26. It’s much easier for a Greens voter to support Andrews than it is for us to support Shorten, that’s for sure.

    Why?

  27. Firefox
    The problem with the Greens is that the doctrinaire reds are doing now what they were always going to do eventually – driving out (cleansing) the environmentalists they have, until now, parasitized.
    Not only do the Reds put the environment last, the Red come up with the really kookie doctrinaire stuff.
    Like the UBI that will cost more than the entire Commonwealth revenue, leaving nothing for education, health, public transport, environment… nothing.
    Like closing down Australia’s cotton industry.
    Like gutting the ADF.
    Like closing down Olympic Dam Mine.
    Like closing down all facilities that could enable the deployment of nuclear weapons. (One assumes that this includes all ports, airports, storage depots and communications systems.)

    And one other thing. I get four legs good, two legs bad, but the Greens are not ‘fine’. They are losing members. They are losing energy. They are losing volunteers. They are losing MPs. They are sliding in the polling. Their leader is useless.

  28. Bugler, oh we’re far from complacent. We’re just realistic and know what is happening in our own party. Look at what just happened in NSW. Everyone outside the party was writing us off and saying the NSWG were going to split in two. What absolute nonsense that was proved to be. Write us off at your own risk.

  29. That said, I’ve thought for a while that McNamara (and other parts of the inner city) is likely to fall to the Coalition over the long term due to demographic factors so it becoming a Coalition/Green 2CP next election isn’t out of the question, even with Danby no longer around.

  30. Firefox,

    I don’t think any party is covered in glory in NSW. I interpreted the results of the NSW election as a repudiation of all the mainstream parties – Labor, Greens and the Coalition.

    Apologies if such an impression offends but I’m far from enamoured by the state of NSW politics at the moment and count myself fortunate I didn’t have to vote there.

  31. Boerwar, oh please! Spare me the “reds under the bed” rant. The cold war called – it wants it’s propaganda back.

  32. grimace @ #429 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 4:19 pm

    I’m with Yabba on being dismissive of religion. It has caused enormous damage all over the world.

    Yabba’s problem is that he is utterly convinced that his belief system must be correct, and he thinks this gives him the right to ridicule others. It doesn’t – it just makes him a bigot.

    I think you are better than that.

  33. As someone involved in the anti-Adani movement, its interesting to follow the twisting,nebulous path of the blame-game about the becalmed project. First we hear that Labor is fractured over the project,then its the Libs and Qld Nationals,then its all Qld Labors fault and nearly always conveniently forgotten is that it was under LNP Premier Newman that the Adani ball got really rolling.
    Both Qld and Federal Labor are shifting targets over Adani and Morrison and the southern team want nothing to do with it before the election. Price is the weakest link and will do whatever shes told. Notice she had two bob each way- give the water resource the go-ahead but remind us all that there are other issues to be decided…….
    Adani is doing its best to muddy the waters,( like its overflow into the Caley Wetlands, for which the Labor Gov. slapped it with a wet lettuce leaf ) but that seems to be all they can do. And locals know Adani has cancelled planning and engineering projects with local support companies. Christensen is very quiet about that or his thoughts are in another place beyond the coast of Central Qld.
    Nothing else will happen now as the COALition are desperate to push the issue away- its all up to the Qld Gov. now…….phew!
    Maybe the COALition5 MPs will bide their time or have been gagged. The current set of Polls will further unsettle the nervous nellies in the Government.
    I believe Palmer and Rineheart will slink off from planning for the Basin if Labor wins. There’s no money in the poor quality steaming coal, no prospect of a new coal-fired power station in the Basin and Labors seats in the coal electorates of the Hunter Valley are fractious as well.
    Adani is doomed anyway. The mining focus in Qld, and its jobs, are heading north-west to new mines and other minerals. Thats the new frontier and Qld Labor, and its Federal counterpart, understand that.

  34. Boerwar

    Did you write this ? 😆
    ————————————————–
    At least with the old green Greens we knew what to expect.

    Now, they’ve become a tawdry shadow of the worst elements of the major parties, the ugliest possible expression for the terribleness of modern politics, a dangerous cocktail of sanctimony and cant.

    Still, it is a lot of fun to watch them brawling. Get yourself a good seat.

    Fight, fight, fight.

    https://www.jacktheinsider.com/?p=718

  35. More blunders on electric cars from the pro coalition media and Morrison ,cash etc

    If apprentices are going to drive electric cars , then electric cars are not going to be that expensive if apprentices can afford them

  36. The other nutty thing about Adani, which Richard Denniss repeatedly points out, is that all it would do, if it did open up, was depress the price of coal because it would create more supply. That is the last thing the Australian coal industry needs.

  37. 1bob.
    Adani approvals are the combination of the culmination of decades of growing ineptitude of major project environment assessment, the corruption of politics by the resource curse and the inescapable realities of climate change all underlined by the shameless opportunism of the gutless, amoral, ratbags of the Right.

  38. Karvelas tying Kitching up in knots re Adani.

    Liberals are very clearly supporters of coal.

    Labor are so split on coal it’s embarrassing.

  39. Boerwar @ #435 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 4:25 pm

    Firefox
    The problem with the Greens is that the doctrinaire reds are doing now what they were always going to do eventually – driving out (cleansing) the environmentalists they have, until now, parasitized.
    Not only do the Reds put the environment last, the Red come up with the really kookie doctrinaire stuff.
    Like the UBI that will cost more than the entire Commonwealth revenue, leaving nothing for education, health, public transport, environment… nothing.
    Like closing down Australia’s cotton industry.
    Like gutting the ADF.
    Like closing down Olympic Dam Mine.
    Like closing down all facilities that could enable the deployment of nuclear weapons. (One assumes that this includes all ports, airports, storage depots and communications systems.)

    And one other thing. I get four legs good, two legs bad, but the Greens are not ‘fine’. They are losing members. They are losing energy. They are losing volunteers. They are losing MPs. They are sliding in the polling. Their leader is useless.

    Negging Negging Negging…

  40. I understand that the Murdoch publication has linked Shorten to the Greens today looking for the political advantage that delivers

    I also understand that the assessment that there is no safe Liberal Party seat in wider Melbourne remains the assessment from internal polling

    That includes former “Blue Ribbon” seats in the heartland of Menzies Liberal Party

    Ad Man from Mad Men is the subject of ridicule within the Party including because the Victorian Division Leader, Sukkar was demoted as he was (and Bastiaan remains active behind Sukkar)

    The message is that Ad Man from Mad Men does not command the numbers within the Parliamentary Party and is increasingly isolated hence unilateral decisions and further eroding his numbers to near single figures – but the election is too close for a spill plus so many have slammed the door and left the building

    Hence we see those resigning from the parliament still attending Ministerial and other duties (and being remunerated accordingly)

    Ad Man from Mad Men does not know who his remaining supporters are – hence not appointing

    So during the election campaign we the voters will not know who and where Ministerial appointments will be

    This scenario is only part of the ridicule – it gets far, far more personal than that

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