Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

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  3. All we need is for Turnbull and/or Bishop (who I’m assuming were both in the shadow cabinet meeting) to tweet…

    Do we? If none of these people are prepared to go on the record to say he didnt say those things then isnt it a lay down that he said it? And if they try ‘I dont recall him saying that’ – well that doesnt cut it.

  4. I hope Waleed doesn’t get sucked into a he said he said argument about 2010 but quickly moves onto the other 100 odd whistle blows Scott/ Dutton/ Abbot have made.. its not one sin it’s many

    That’s the test. Everyone believes the story because it fits the pattern.

    If Waleed does have his homework done and goes through each and every instance (and adds in that to him as a Muslim it sure felt like playing the Muslim=terrorists/crimes/rapists card) then he’ll nail Robinson no matter how many times Stunt says ‘it wasn’t me’.

    But I reckon he’ll bottle it.

  7. Hijab a signal of peace, wearer carries a gun? It doesn’t compute for me. Sorry.

    @newsbreak123

    Heavily-armed police wearing hijabs in a show of solidarity and support stand guard as schoolboy who dreamed of playing for Manchester United is laid to rest alongside his coach after they were murdered in #Christchurch mosque massacre. #respect

  8. poroti
    Part of the grand plan could include a line to Adelaide’s Multifunction Polis

    Maybe they can ask Barry Jones to explain where the corridor will go

  10. We’re out tonight with friends and will miss the Project interview. I’ll have to catch up on the blow by blow as recorded by PB when we get home much later. But last night on The Weekly the story also got a run, with C. Pickering reporting on the claim by journalists “one of the one of whom I have spoken to directly.” I have to think that Aly will have considerable help getting his homework done.

    EDIT: Corrected spelling of Aly

  11. What is it with law enforcement and their Armalite assault rifle fetish? That rifle is simply not fit for purpose for any policing operation anywhere. If long arms are needed to be deployed then bolt actions for marksmen and the HK UPM9 (or market equivalent) are appropriate. The high velocity hard casing on the military grade M4 carbine is prone to shatter and kill on ricochet (Lindt cafe) and will cavitate on impact with any flesh target, causing irreparable damage.

    I reckon the tactical ops cops have a military special ops fetish. The funny thing is that real military special ops operators tend to use either the HK UPM, or MP5 or a custom made HK, which uses the same gun frame as the M4 carbine, but is a completely difffernt and lower powered specialist close quarter combat weapon.

  14. Just for the record –

    I heard that mental midget McCormack on ABC radio news this arvo, responding to questions about (no) deals with PHON, say

    *that preferences would be decided at a local level, and

    *that there is one party that needs to be at the bottom of the ballot card, and

    *that would be the Greens. The Greens, he declared emphatically, were the ‘greatest threat to the social fabric’ in Australia. (That’s pretty much a direct quote).

    Yes folks, PHON and right wing supremacy is way ahead of the Greens in social cohesion.

    He did Dutton proud.

  17. Lizzie,

    Thanks for letting me know that Malcolm Farnsworth is OK. I was really impressed at how quickly the journos rallied around him, even if it turns out it was an old tweet.

  18. BK @ #2390 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 4:18 pm

    GG
    To really put the boot into Morrison Waleed should remind him that Jacinda Ardern has invited him over to NZ for an interview.

    I read somewhere that Morrison was knocked back when he offered financial and other support to Ardern. Apparently, she told him that NZ would deal with the massacre themself and didn’t need outside support.

  20. For the NSW election, the vibe in the media is very much that Michael Dayley has blown it, and the Libs will be re-elected.

    However, this is a strange election, and different seats will be decided on different issues.

    I just got an email about a pill-testing petition that I signed, from a mother whose child died from a bad pill at a festival. She did not tell people how to vote, but to consider pill testing when they did vote.

    The Green got a big tick, the Coalition got a big cross, and Labor came out at agreeing to look at the issue and have a summit of experts if it wins government. So, I took that as a vote 1 Green, 2 ALP, and then whatever you like.

  21. Morrison would never agree to an interview with Aly unless he could write his own questions.

    He will still need help with the answers.

  22. It won’t matter much what questions Morrison is asked . He will just give the answers to questions he’d like to have been asked. All done with his usual circular breathing gabble gabble gabble

  24. I fear Morrison won’t be able to contain himself tonight on The Project.

    He will be the picture of conciliation. And Aly will facilitate that.

  25. “Andrew_Earlwood just dropped off my dream dinner party invite list.”

    Was it something I said? I’m just honoured to have been on the invite list in the first place!

  26. ratsak @ #2404 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 4:35 pm

    I hope Waleed doesn’t get sucked into a he said he said argument about 2010 but quickly moves onto the other 100 odd whistle blows Scott/ Dutton/ Abbot have made.. its not one sin it’s many

    That’s the test. Everyone believes the story because it fits the pattern.

    If Waleed does have his homework done and goes through each and every instance (and adds in that to him as a Muslim it sure felt like playing the Muslim=terrorists/crimes/rapists card) then he’ll nail Robinson no matter how many times Stunt says ‘it wasn’t me’.

    But I reckon he’ll bottle it.

    Ratsak,

    Aly has millions of downloads of his emotional monolgue the other day. He has just returned from his interview with Ardern which he got on the basis of that monologue.

    The power is all with Aly in this situation.

    There is absolutely, nothing that will stop him going the jugular on a smarmy, half prepared, bigoted anti Islam drop kick with heaps of form about what a miserable human being he is.

  29. He will be the picture of conciliation. And Aly will facilitate that.

    or

    There is absolutely, nothing that will stop him going the jugular on a smarmy, half prepared, bigoted anti Islam drop kick with heaps of form about what a miserable human being he is.

    Sadly my money’s on the first option. Would be delighted to be wrong, but you don’t often lose money betting on the media pulling their punches when it comes to the Coalition. They will wound but once the push back comes they never go in for the kill.

  32. GG. I’d take you up on that, but given we are all anonymous keyboard cowboys (or cowgirls) and there is no private message function on the blog, I’m not sure how we could facilitate such an event.

  33. Science is a hoax BK. Remember Trumble maths…

    “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,”

    Same same for the laws of thermodynamics.

  34. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2432 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 5:47 pm

    GG. I’d take you up on that, but given we are all anonymous keyboard cowboys (or cowgirls) and there is no private message function on the blog, I’m not sure how we could facilitate such an event.

    WB is always happy to pass on contact details in private.

    Given, you are in Sydney and I’m in Melbourne an acknowledged 12 can trip (each way), that’s not probably a bad problem.

    However, I am coming to Sydney on business later in the year. So maybe a couple of loud beers might have to do!

  36. ratsak

    What hope did mathematics have versus the power of the Coalition’s Hockeynomics and their Eleventy calculator ?

    even Albert struggled with it.

  37. Douglas and Milko says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 5:15 pm
    For the NSW election, the vibe in the media is very much that Michael Dayley has blown it, and the Libs will be re-elected.

    ——————–

    The vibe in the media was similar in QLD , 2 days before the QLD
    the rest is history

  39. I don’t understand how Aly can be responsible for reporting Lenore’s article, any more than Buzzfeed was for reporting the internal investigation on Emma Husar. Are not these simply observations of fact?

    Legal eagles, please.

  40. Update. Full List. Newspoll Only. 🙂
    The list is long enough now so I’ll post only new guesses from now on. (Essential guesses next.)

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24

    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.2 to 45.8 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 51

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    54 / 46 Al Pal
    55 / 45 Alpha Zero
    54 / 46 BK
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 Burgey
    53 / 47 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    55 / 45 d-money
    75 / 25 Dan Gulberry *essential permanent
    52 / 48 Davidwh *doubtful
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    56 / 44 Gecko
    55 / 45 Granny Anny
    54 / 46 Goll
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
    53 / 47 Lynchpin
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    55 / 45 martini henry
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 max
    52 / 48 MM
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    53 / 47 Mundo
    54 / 46 pica
    52 / 48 Player One
    54 / 46 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    54 / 46 Red13
    57 / 43 rhwombat *+1% per week
    no Newspoll Scott
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    52 / 48 Smokey
    55 / 45 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    52 / 48 Steve777
    54 / 46 Terminator
    53 / 47 Tricot
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    54 / 46 Wayne
    54 / 46 Whisper
    54 / 46 Yabba

  42. Ratsack

    Science is a hoax BK. Remember Trumble maths…

    “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,”

    Same same for the laws of thermodynamics.

    Trumble’s quote still makes me chuckle.

    However, you are really onto something here. Thermodynamics (classical) is a beautiful set of mathematical equations, that explain why perpetual motion machines cannot work. If the law of Australia overrides this, then come-on-down Malcolm Turnbull to legislate for all the free energy we can get.

    I really do not know why he did not publicise this excellent corollary to his first statement.

    Ludwig Boltzmann, who did so much to develop thermodynamics, and actually show that energy only flowed one way, from ordered states to disordered states, and hence ruling out perpetual motion, had the second law of thermodynamics on his gravestone:

  44. Herewith the Essential guesses.

    PB-Guess: Essential 2019-03-26

    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.6 to 46.4 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 44

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    54 / 46 BK
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 Burgey
    52 / 48 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    55 / 45 d-money
    54.7239618 / 45.2760382 Dan Gulberry *essential permanent
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    55 / 45 Gecko
    54 / 46 Granny Anny
    53 / 47 Goll
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    55 / 45 martini henry
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 max
    52 / 48 MM
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    53 / 47 pica
    52 / 48 Player One
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    53 / 47 Red13
    58 / 42 rhwombat *+1% per week
    55 / 45 Scott
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 Terminator
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Victoria
    53 / 47 Wayne
    53 / 47 Yabba

  45. PVO

    Don’t miss The Project tonight on Ten: Dr Waleed Aly interviews the PM for a full 30 minutes off the top of the show. No ads. 6:30pm start #auspol

  47. Tom @ #2427 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 5:38 pm

    Simon² Katich® @ #2424 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 5:33 pm

    I fear Morrison won’t be able to contain himself tonight on The Project.

    He will be the picture of conciliation. And Aly will facilitate that.

    That’s what I am expecting.

    —
    I think Aly will need a stack of these to get anywhere near the truth from Scomo and even then a narcissist is almost incapable of admitting culpability for anything even in the face of undeniable reality.

    Shame on him and shame on us if we vote him back in to the most important job in politics.

  50. Is the Aly interview with Morrison at 6:30 Sydney time? And does it get live-streamed? (It is currently only 5:18 in Brisbane.)

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