YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in Goulburn; 51-49 to Liberal in Penrith

Two New South Wales state seats held by the Liberals on margins of between 6% and 7% are going down to the wire, according to new polls by YouGov Galaxy.

The Daily Telegraph has two more seat polls from YouGov Galaxy, with sample sizes of around 550, but I only have an image from the front page of the paper to go on at this stage. One is from Goulburn, which is being vacated with the retirement of Pru Goward, and where reports have widely suggested that Labor is in the hunt despite the solid 6.6% margin. The poll bears this out, recording a tie on two-party preferred. The other is from Penrith, which cabinet minister Stuart Ayres holds for the Liberals on a margin of 6.2%. The poll finds him with his nose in front, with a lead of 51-49. More to follow.

UPDATE: The primary votes in Goulburn are Liberal 38%, Labor 37%, Shooters 8%, One Nation 6% and Greens 4%. In Penrith, it’s Liberal 42%, Labor 38%, One Nation 9% and Greens 6%. Sample sizes were 531 in Goulburn and 550 in Penrith. Respondents were resoundingly negative towards the government over sports stadiums, with 56% in Goulburn saying they would be less likely to vote Liberal as a result compared with 13% for more likely, while in Penrith the numbers were 48% and 20% respectively. However, Gladys Berejiklian led Michael Daley as preferred premier by 43-30 in Goulburn and 51-30 in Penrith.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

90 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in Goulburn; 51-49 to Liberal in Penrith”

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  2. Im not sure why people think Daley’s comments will be perceived as a political negative. All existing Sydneysiders, including established migrants and second generation folk from non Caucasian backgrounds are being squeezed out of the property market by newly arrived business migrants – 99% of which are not yet citizens and dont get a vote.

  4. I’d like to see Daley spending a lot more time in the 2GB studios telling Jones to go fuck himself and absolutely zero time spent mentioning any race or ethnicity.

  5. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, March 19, 2019 at 11:59 am
    Im not sure why people think Daley’s comments will be perceived as a political negative. All existing Sydneysiders, including established migrants and second generation folk from non Caucasian backgrounds are being squeezed out of the property market by newly arrived business migrants – 99% of which are not yet citizens and dont get a vote.

    The Murdoch media, currently attacking Daley, have been very vocal about the “Chinese invasion” driving up Sydney property prices, buying units and leaving them empty while local residents are forced to find affordable homes elsewhere. Daley will find a lot of Sydney voters appreciating what he is saying. It’s not racism to point out what is occurring.

    This morning I turned on the car radio to hear the tail end of Hadley and Berejiklian chatting amicably. Presumably this means she has the ageing redneck vote sewn up!

  6. JJ says:
    Tuesday, March 19, 2019 at 12:06 pm
    Well, for one, the Greens are pushing the story on social media. At the very least it could hurt preference flows.

    Are the Greens pointing out the implications for loosening gun control of the Liberals doing a preference deal with the Liberal Democrats?

  7. If Labor is running anti-Greens attack ads then Labor can expect some blowback on social media re Daley’s racist comments.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-16/labor-ads-attack-greens-ahead-of-nsw-election/10907128

    Labor is seeking to capitalise on the bitter factional divisions that have plagued the Greens party in New South Wales by rolling out attack ads in key progressive seats around the state.

    Posters will be plastered across the Greens-held seat of Balmain, asking “if the Greens are fighting each other, who’s fighting the Liberals?”.

    Critical north coast seats will also be targeted with a social media campaign and letterbox drops.

  8. Pegasus, I have lived in Balmain most of my life. I have NEVER clapped eyes on Jamie Parker. Yet, I have now seen the Labor candidate twice. What the hell does he do?

  9. Hey Princess; you should have heard the Australian-Chinese young man with his sub continent extraction girlfriend lose his shit at an auction in my street a few months ago when the minibus carrying a load of mainland Chinese investors turned up. I reckon there were about 8 seriously interested couples – and only one Anglo couple – who were interested in that property. They all began walking back to their cars once the bus arrived: they knew they had no chance. The property was sold unencumbered, effectively “for cash”.

    I’d say that living as close to the Great Wall of Quinoa in Bohobostan you literally have NFI what is happening in Sydney and moreover it is not just anglos who are pissed off. Not by a long stretch.

  10. Anton – I’ve done some campaigning for the Labor candidate in Balmain, but I’m intrigued as to your observations of Jamie Parker. I reckon he is everywhere. My wife works for council and he’s always at community events. He always seems to follow through. Jamie was my star witness in a historic child sexual assault case I prosecuted last year. I have found him to be an impressive man and witness.

  11. Ben Raue at tallyroom.com.au has done a massive data crunch of all the preference material registered so far with the NSWEC for the election.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UE21bnBA-Hk_8Xcncs7-hjOINob4gwlvKes2OvacjhM/edit#gid=0

    I was able to change the electorate order to alphabetical (temporarily) by clicking at the top of the column of electorates. But now I’m being distracted by the Ferret/Turtle/Kraken/Badger in the top right!

  12. AE – Thanks. It’s all anecdotal, I know. As I’ve said, the four greens I know are going Labor and they’re not the sort I would expect to shift. I think he’s in big trouble.

  15. A_E

    By the way – thanks for your work. I remember that case – from hearing about so many unreported things over the years from friends, family and school colleagues, minor and more major, I tend to think such incidents are unlikely to be a ‘one off’.

    Very many suffer in silence, or as I found out at a school reunion, some end their own suffering in the worst possible way.

  16. Andrew_Earlwood @ #50 Tuesday, March 19th, 2019 – 11:10 am

    EB – I’m hearing that Bega is gorne. Add that to your list of likely ALP gains. On the other hand I’d only have Balamain on the watch list. On your wait list I would add Bathurst, south coast and Kiama. Also Ballina (3 corner contest between incumbent Green, Labor and the Nat).

    My ALP inside sources, which are impeccable, are telling me that western Sydney is not swinging, so only Penrith is in play. However star wise Labor now expect to pick up at least 10 seats and things are looking “very good”.

    —
    Thank you for the heads up. Will have another look

  17. JJ @ #51 Tuesday, March 19th, 2019 – 11:11 am

    EB:

    Surely Oakley and Seven Hills are out of contention after Daley’s comments on immigration?

    —

    Noted. However, I’m equally sure those voters will be not pleased to hear Scomo tell them today that their immigrant relatives might have to do penance in a State other than NSW, Qld or Victoria for FIVE YEARS before they can be reunited with their family.
    –

    On another note, if Daley took out the whole first day of the last week of campaigning to travel to Goulburn and support the local candidate instead of the obvious ones like Lismore or Coogee or Penrith that tells me his campaign team have no idea OR the baseball bats are out and they can seriously target seats like Goulburn and hope to win them.

  18. RWNJ Terry Barnes has a regular spot on 2CC, Canberra’s redneck radio. Today he opined that Daley’s comments could lead to an increased vote for Labor. He phrased it as Labor taking votes off One Nation. He wasn’t sure that today’s DT front page story was a good idea (in terms of helping Berejiklian).

  19. The perils of putting up posters in Maroubra – Michael Daley’s brothers involved, being up the pole when this happened…

    “About 9.30pm they were putting posters on a telegraph pole on Mons Avenue, just near the Maroubra Bowling Club, when a man said “take the f***ing things down or I will” before approaching them.

    “The male said “I’ve got a Liberal party function here tomorrow, take the f***ing thing down or I will” he was still walking towards us at this point,” the statement says.

    “I said “Mate, I’m sorry I can’t take it down, I’ve just put a f***ing screw in it”. The male said “Right that’s it”.”

    The man than went to the back of the building for about 10 seconds and one of Mr Daley’s brothers said “let’s get the f*** out of here because this guys nuts”, the statement says.

    “The male then walked from the back of the building and started walking towards us holding a pair of garden shears. They were about a foot in length. I believe they had lighter coloured handles. He was holding them with one of his hands and was holding it slightly up out to the side of his body, just slightly above his waist, so that we could see that he had them.”

    https://outline.com/B5Vh4X

  20. sprocket_ @ #69 Tuesday, March 19th, 2019 – 6:39 pm

    The perils of putting up posters in Maroubra – Michael Daley’s brothers involved, being up the pole when this happened…

    “About 9.30pm they were putting posters on a telegraph pole on Mons Avenue, just near the Maroubra Bowling Club, when a man said “take the f***ing things down or I will” before approaching them.

    “The male said “I’ve got a Liberal party function here tomorrow, take the f***ing thing down or I will” he was still walking towards us at this point,” the statement says.

    “I said “Mate, I’m sorry I can’t take it down, I’ve just put a f***ing screw in it”. The male said “Right that’s it”.”

    The man than went to the back of the building for about 10 seconds and one of Mr Daley’s brothers said “let’s get the f*** out of here because this guys nuts”, the statement says.

    “The male then walked from the back of the building and started walking towards us holding a pair of garden shears. They were about a foot in length. I believe they had lighter coloured handles. He was holding them with one of his hands and was holding it slightly up out to the side of his body, just slightly above his waist, so that we could see that he had them.”

    https://outline.com/B5Vh4X

    Is the poster still up?

  29. For anyone interested the SFF have preferenced the ALP ahead of the Coalition in 15 seats.
    Barwon No 4
    Bathurst No 2
    Coffs Harbour No 3
    Coogee No2
    Cootamundra No 2
    Dubbo No 3
    Gosford No 2
    Goulburn No 3
    Hawksbury No 4
    Heathcott No 2
    Maitland No 3
    Monaro No 2
    Myall Lakes No 2
    Oatley No 3
    Penrith No 4
    Wagga Wagga No 2

    https://htvdisplay.elections.nsw.gov.au/

    In no seat are the Coalition given second preferences where preferences are allocated and PHON gets the gig ahead of the ALP in a couple of them. Go figure. So Daley was playing smart holding his cards to his chest when pressured on the issue yesterday. He is learning.

  31. Andrew_Earlwood @ #80 Tuesday, March 19th, 2019 – 8:43 pm

    “Oh dear!

    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/03/19/18/28/mark-latham-sued-for-defamation-by-man-cleared-of-terrorism-charges”

    Biff will need that extra salary as an upper house MP, me thinks.

    —
    I hate to imagine what biffo is going to be given airtime to sprout given a new platform for his bile after he kicks PHON to the kerb post election. Do you remember his radio station podcast where he told us essentially that men commit DV because they are disappointed with their lot in life . Ill have to find it again.

  32. Gee, Mark, no media coy to stand behind, not a skerrick of a defence and not a lawyer in the country who will give you a freebie. You’ve done well this time. Take a bow.

  33. From the Ben Raue’s link I posted earlier

    I was actually fascinated by Labor’s how-to-votes, to the extent that it motivated me to do a map. It seems like Labor is trying to achieve very different things in different seats.
    :::

    Overall, Labor has varied widely in terms of whether they mark every preference on the lower house ballot, recommend a partial numbering, or just recommend a ‘1’ only vote.

    I count 44 seats where they recommend full preferences, 27 seats where they exhaust, and 18 where they recommend partial preferences. This doesn’t include four seats where they have registered an exhausting how-to-vote and one that marks some or all preferences: Heathcote, Murray, Newcastle and Upper Hunter.

    I have plotted out these decisions on the map below (if you toggle), but in summary I have found quite a few seats in western Sydney where the ALP is actively encouraging voters to ‘just vote 1’. This seems puzzling considering these are places with high rates of informal voting at federal elections, and we are less than two months away from such an election. I’ll return to the topic of Just Vote 1 later this week.

    The ALP also appears to have designed a number of different upper house preferencing order in different regions. This map shows those versions:
    :::
    And then there is a string of eight seats in western Sydney (stretching from Macquarie Fields to Lakemba and also covering two seats in the Blacktown area) where Labor has registered an alternate how-to-vote with no preference for the Greens. They’ve done the same in Cessnock.

    I can’t say what Labor’s motivation is for doing these different preferences. It may be an attempt to boost a number of potential upper house allies in the seats where voters are most likely to follow them, or it may be an attempt to avoid alienating voters in particular areas.

  34. Poll deadlock between Labor and NSW government could put state’s future in hands of minor parties
    MARCH 19, 2019
    NSW is on the brink of a hung parliament within days, with Labor locked neck and neck with the government in polling as the state prepares to go to the ballot box.

    An exclusive YouGov/Galaxy statewide poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph has found the major parties are deadlocked 50-50 two-party preferred.

    …

    The results show the government’s primary vote slumping from their 2015 election result by close to five percentage points — from 45.6 per cent to 41. Labor’s primary vote grows by almost four points from 34.1 to 38.

    The Greens claim 9 per cent of the primary vote, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 3 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 1 per cent.

  37. Shellbell

    Yes I think any state-wide poll less than 52-48 either way does not ‘guarantee’ government even if it reflected the final vote. And even 52-48 would be no guarantee of a majority for either side given the many ‘mini-elections’ in different regions.

    Overall though I think all the polls reflect a substantial swing to Labor and away from the Coalition on primaries, which surely must start tipping the pendulum Labor’s way. I would be surprised if Labor or the Greens lost any seats to the Coalition – maybe Orange is one the Coalition could peg back but I wouldn’t bet on that even.

  38. RR

    Doing a case at the moment in which I could have called Phil Donato as a witness. Wish I had and I could have asked him re Orange. I suppose his challenge is to maintain the level of loathing which existed in Oct 2016 after greyhounds.

    Ballina is the only other theoretical hope if (big if) Greens vote collapsed and shifts back.

    I am told Nats are behind in at least three of the contested seats

  40. I love the way the SMH writes articles along the line of “Daley makes valiant effort to save his campaign” when the only ones who’ve said it needed saving are they, themselves, the SMH (plus a smattering of Nervous Nellies here who go into a vapour at the first whiff of electoral grapeshot).

    They all like to think of themselves as somehow connected to the soul of the people, in tune with the zeitgeist, switched on to the nuances of politics, able to see whole demographic shifts in the raising of an eyebrow, and so on. It’s vanity at best, and utter deceit at worst.

    Too late for any of that subtle stuff now, anyway. No-one’s vote is going to be changed by a negative mention in the SMH or a fluffed line in a TV debate. Voters have seen how imperfect newbies became Labor Premiers in Queensland and Victoria. Ditto for Jacinda Ardern here jn NZ. Fluffing a line doesn’t cut it anymore, and pointing out the fluff, magnifying it into a magnitude 9 earthquake doesn’t impress the way it used to.

    Gladys had better be off making peace with herself, and Mike Daley should be getting measured up for a new suit.

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