YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Liberal in South Australia

The first polling test of Steven Marshall’s Liberal government in South Australia offers a mix of primary vote swings and two-party preferred roundabouts.

NOTE: The main discussion thread has fallen down the page a little, to here, below the latest New South Wales election post and Brexit update from Adrian Beaumont.

Today’s Sunday Mail (the Adelaide one) brings the first published poll of state voting intention in South Australia since the election of Steven Marshall’s Liberal government last year, courtesy of YouGov Galaxy. It produces a status quo result on two-party preferred, with the Liberals leading 52-48, compared with an election result of 51.9-48.1, but shows considerable movement on the primary vote thanks to the collapse of Nick Xenophon’s SA Best: the Liberals are on 42%, compared with 38.0% at the election; Labor is on 37%, compared with 32.8%; the Greens are on 7%, compared with 6.7%; and SA Best are on 7%, compared with 14.1%. Steven Marshall holds a 46-26 lead over Labor’s Peter Malinauskas as preferred premier. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 844.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

14 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to Liberal in South Australia”

  1. What I have noticed about SA is that, whatever Marshall is doing, nobody is talking much about it nationally. Why does the national press seem to have gone quiet on Marshall, whereas Weatherill was such a “front page sensation”, usually in a forced and artificially negative way?

    Is that a case of Protection-by-Inconspicuousness?

  2. Alpo @ #3 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 7:22 am

    What I have noticed about SA is that, whatever Marshall is doing, nobody is talking much about it nationally. Why does the national press seem to have gone quiet on Marshall, whereas Weatherill was such a “front page sensation”, usually in a forced and artificially negative way?

    Is that a case of Protection-by-Inconspicuousness?

    Yes.

  3. Alpo @ #3 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 7:22 am

    What I have noticed about SA is that, whatever Marshall is doing, nobody is talking much about it nationally. Why does the national press seem to have gone quiet on Marshall, whereas Weatherill was such a “front page sensation”, usually in a forced and artificially negative way?

    Is that a case of Protection-by-Inconspicuousness?

    Yes. But no-one is really telling us what they are doing. You don’t know what you had until it’s gone.

  4. I sent this complaint to the ABC. Not that it will do any good.,

    What were you thinking in giving Gerard Henderson a platform on our premier political program a few days after the Christchurch White Supremacist Terrorism massacre?

    This man has consistently supported Far Right Wing attitudes. He is an apologist for racists and regularly gives soft comfort to divisive race commentators.

    He is also rude and dismissive of female commentators, ignoring them by not responding to their points, interrupting then constantly and dominating the available time at the expense of the women. It is so obvious and so boring.

    He is boring, predictable and ruins any Insiders program he is on. He has nothing hew to offer and just defends a political position week after week.

    There are many people you could have had on Insiders today, why did it have to be this boring, pedantic, one-pony-act, racism-apologist man.

    Gerard Henderson never expressed sorrow this morning and tried to paint the perpetrator as a New Zealander and not Australia’s problem. This was extremely offensive. He is aiding rightwing extremists. As an Australian born Christian background Ango Saxon heritage woman, the constituency the shooter did his acts in the name of, I want people on this week who will reflect and discuss my collective responsibility with other Australians for the society that spawned this murderer.

    I want real questions discussed, not an apologist trying to deflect public introspection and stop a process that just may lead to an increase in love and peace. This dreadful tragedy can go from here onto divide and fear, or shared grief, love and acceptance

    It was a terrible response by the ABC today, You are assisting the former instead of encouraging the latter.

    You have a responsibility to our community, You are our ABC. Act like it.

    Shame on you for putting Gerard Henderson on today,

    Give him airtime, as the right of political comment.

    But not today,

  5. Nothing much is happening here. You could blink and think Weatherill was still in power. Malinauskas has been very quiet. I’ve heard he’s very impressive but haven’t seen much of him. Not that we’ve seen much of Marshall either.

  6. Malinauskas is a really decent person. Marshall is a Pyne puppet.

    These figures are virtually the same as those of the last election.

    People take a while to wake up. They will.

  7. I find it interesting to hear these comments, which shows it really matters what you watch/listen/read and that I’m possibly in a bit in a bubble.

    My take was that Malinauskas has been way more visible and influential than most Opposition Leaders, especially this far out from election, and taken up a number of high-profile campaigns to build a strong profile for a new leader.

    He appears to be regularly consulted by the media and offers an opinion on most major SA issues across Channel 7 news, The Advertiser, ABC Adelaide etc. More often than not he’s the only opinion aired (e.g. occasionally a Liberal minister but very rarely Marshall himself).

    On a local levels, Malinauskas is also attending a lot of community events and has undertaken an extensive listening tour across every electorate in the state.

    In contrast I’ve seen plenty of messaging from Liberal ministers (e.g. Knoll, Wade etc.) but Marshall from my perspective has been largely missing in action apart from a couple of ribbon cuttings, a few comments on the Chapman debacle, and an increase in good news announcements in the last fortnight or so.

    This is all to say, it’s interesting and refreshing to get some other perspectives.

  8. “You have a responsibility to our community, You are our ABC. Act like it.”… At the moment it’s not our ABC anymore, it’s their ABC, which was exactly the objective of all recent Liberal PMs, yes including Malcolm Turnbull. The trick was very simple: repeat ad nauseam that the ABC is left-wing biased (against evidence upon evidence that disproved it), control the ABC, shift it to the right and…. continue to argue that the ABC is left-wing biased, which protects the ongoing right-wing shift from being challenged.
    A clean up of the ABC-SBS will be required as yet another urgent initiative of the coming Shorten ALP Federal government.

  9. Weatherill frequently intervened in federal debates, did high profile deals with billionaires, crashed press conferences, etc and was talked about ad nauseum by the federal government. What has Marshall done to attract that level of news coverage and how much time has federal Labor spent talking about him? It’s hardly a conspiracy…

  10. “Mr Marshall is preferred as premier by almost half of the 844 respondents to the statewide YouGov Galaxy poll, leading his Labor rival, Peter Malinauskas, by 46 per cent to 26 per cent.

    However, 28 per cent remain uncommitted.

    Mr Marshall’s dominant position as preferred premier is the first time he has held a commanding lead over his Labor rival in a YouGov Galaxy Poll since becoming Liberal leader in February, 2013.”

    Any thoughts on what Preferred Premier polling indicates, if anything?

  11. It indicates even less than preferred prime minister polling, to whit, that the only time a premier can lose on that measure is if they are comically hopeless.

  12. @MM

    My observations are the same. I think Peter has been very active for an opposition leader at this stage in electoral cycle. He has been out and about campaigning on SA service closures and bus route closures. Used byelections to increase his profile.

    There is a sense that Marshall government is similar to Baillieu/Napthine governments in Victoria. Not doing much, a few cuts here and there, industrial fights with workers in public sectors and no overarching theme.

    I wouldn’t worry about better premier ratings at this stage of electoral cycle because no one gives a shit.

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