The Daily Telegraph has two more seat polls from YouGov Galaxy, with sample sizes of around 550, but I only have an image from the front page of the paper to go on at this stage. One is from Goulburn, which is being vacated with the retirement of Pru Goward, and where reports have widely suggested that Labor is in the hunt despite the solid 6.6% margin. The poll bears this out, recording a tie on two-party preferred. The other is from Penrith, which cabinet minister Stuart Ayres holds for the Liberals on a margin of 6.2%. The poll finds him with his nose in front, with a lead of 51-49. More to follow.
UPDATE: The primary votes in Goulburn are Liberal 38%, Labor 37%, Shooters 8%, One Nation 6% and Greens 4%. In Penrith, it’s Liberal 42%, Labor 38%, One Nation 9% and Greens 6%. Sample sizes were 531 in Goulburn and 550 in Penrith. Respondents were resoundingly negative towards the government over sports stadiums, with 56% in Goulburn saying they would be less likely to vote Liberal as a result compared with 13% for more likely, while in Penrith the numbers were 48% and 20% respectively. However, Gladys Berejiklian led Michael Daley as preferred premier by 43-30 in Goulburn and 51-30 in Penrith.
hopefully this translates to a 6-7% swing statewide. I imagine the swing at the federal level could be even greater, and it is anger at the federal LNP driving this sort of swing at the state level.
I am looking forward to next weekend’s result.
You can see why Turnbull had planned to have the Federal election on March 2nd – the Federal scene is helping destroy the NSW Coalition government.
I wonder how much campaiging Morrison will be doing in NSW this week.
Seeing as he and his colleagues are effectively “on strike” from Parliament.
Seat polls are notoriously unreliable, but good indicators of a swing, if it is on. I’d say it’s on like donkey kong!
In Victorian election, average of seat polls were around 8 points too friendly to Coalition. All were showing Coalition support inflated. I think NSW Labor would be happy with these two polls.
This is from the SFF
Cute kids
https://twitter.com/sffAustralia/status/1107214808657465345
From the previous thread:
“How is it looking in Wagga Wagga?”
Miserable, to be honest.
Very, very dry. No decent rain for a long time. Most dams on farms are bone dry. The landscape is scorched brown. Regular, heavy dust storms when a westerly wind blows.
On a brighter note, Dr Joe McGirr is almost certain to see of a challenge from the Nats. He’s had a strong presence in local and social media. He is quite well regarded in the electorate.
Primaries:
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll NSW State Seat of Goulburn Primary Votes: LIB 38 (-10.7 since election) ALP 37 (+2.7) SFF 8 (+8) ON 6 (+6) GRN 4 (-3.9)
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
5m
#Galaxy Poll NSW State Seat of Penrith Primary Votes: LIB 42 (-3.6 since election) ALP 38 (+5.1) ON 9 (+9) GRN 6 (+0.5) #nswvotes #auspol
The published 2PPs seem rather grim for Coalition off these primaries to me; wonder how they did them.
Re. Goulburn poll:
Looks like there could be heavy swings against the Coalition in rural electorates.
It’s a bit of a stretch, but Albury on a 13% margin (sitting member retiring) could be interesting.
Also, Murray (3%) is likely to fall to SFF.
All the usual caveats about single seat polls apply. But, the Greens vote is not going anywhere at a time where the voters are looking for alternatives.
When the leader of the Nationals doesn’t mention his party affiliation in advertising, you know something is a bit crook.
Barilaro advertisement on radio this morning.
Coalition needs to lose how many seats to lose their majority… i think its around 8? But ALP needs to gain 12 to form a majority govt?
I can see the former happening but the latter is a big ask. What we dont want is some Tory-DUP equivalent where the coalition have to strike a bargain with loons to stay in govt. Am not familiar enough with the Shooters to classify them as loons, but the name itself isnt reassuring.
Are there any Coalition eats under threat from a sensible Independent or Green?
Expat – the coalition need to lose 6 seats to lose their majority. Labor needs to win 13 to obtain a majority.
The most likely outcome is a hung parliament. The main question will be exactly where the major parties land between 40 and 46 seats.
I think Labor are looking at gaining at least 8 seats from the coalition. Between 2 and 6 seats in Sydney but another half dozen outside Sydney.
On top of that is the likelihood that the coalition will lose another 2-4 seats to the minor parties and independents.
That means that labor is likely to equal or exceed the coalition in seat numbers and also I’d suggest have more pathways open to it to obtain the confidence of the Legislative Assembly and hence government.
Im after a non-loon bop minority Coalition govt… prob because i rate that John Fahey govt of 1992-6 v highly in terms of transparency and decent outcomes….
Either side with a majority in NSW feels like a recipe for dodgy decisions
Possibly Coffs Harbour, but it’s hard to tell with no real polling done. Dr Sally Townley (ex-Green, ecologist) is a local councilor, and has been the NSW election candidate most solidly and conspicuously on the right side of the big local issue of the bypass design, unlike the Nats who were pushing an option that would have been an environmental disaster, then backflipped. Also, Coffs feels more ready for an independent since the federal redistribution put it in Rob Oakeshott territory, and he gave Cowper a good shake last time, and is running again. Townley’s campaign seems underfunded, though, so it’s hard to know if she can cut through.
Dave from Wagga
I am very glad to hear that Joe McGirr is going well – I hope he retains his seat this Saturday.
I am very much hoping the Nationals lose Barwon.
Does anyone know whether, apart from Epping, there are electorates where candidates with previous far RW party connections/candidature are standing simply as Independent candidates (as, of course, is their right)?
“Are there any Coalition eats under threat from a sensible Independent or Green?”
IMHO there are three independents that have a reasonable chance.
Mathew Dickerson in Dubbo.
https://www.facebook.com/MathewADickerson/
Mark Rodda in Tamworth.
https://www.markrodda.com.au/
Carolyn Corrigan in North Shore.
https://www.carolyncorrigan.com.au/
The are some suggestions that Judith Hannan in Wollondilly is also a possibility.
https://www.judy.org.au/
Judith Hannan received 11% of the vote as an independent in this seat in 2011.
There seem to be about 6-7 Liberal seats at risk in Sydney..in approx order: Coogee, East Hills, Penrith, Heathcote, Holsworthy, Seven Hills & Parramatta. I’d say this poll (if correct) is good news for them as it may mean they can get away with only two losses there (Coogee & East Hills), if they are lucky.
The big question is if its correct. There was a huge underestimation of the swing in Victoria due I believe, to federal drag factors. Morrison seems to have a messiah complex, believing against all the evidence that he can single-handedly salvage the federal government due to his great persona and superior marketing skills.. NSW is collateral damage to someone in this mindset.
The odds have widened against labour and currently at 1.78 to 2.05 courtesy Sportsbet. However the odds at 1.27 for a hung parliament is the shortest.
Peterjk – I’d swap out Parramatta for Mulgoa on that list of Sydney seats in play.
Parramatta appears to be bit of a stretch as is Riverstone, but if the swing is really on, who knows.
Here’s my Conversation article about the NSW election.
https://theconversation.com/nsw-election-likely-to-be-close-and-mark-latham-will-win-an-upper-house-seat-113549
The lower house is likely to be close. In the upper house, where the statewide quota for election is only 4.55%, One Nation’s Mark Latham is certain to win.
The article also features additional Essential questions from last week, and an explanation of how Fraser Anning won on just 19 personal below the line votes.
Local Sydney “their ABC” radio has been busy regurgitating LNP talking points, to wit ‘Labor under pressure over shooters preference deal’ without once analysing this canard. Salient points missed include:
1. Labor has made clear since the Greyhounds debate that uniting with the SFF to oppose the LNP Government will in no way weaken Labor’s commitment to the national firearms laws;
2. NSW Labor has a 23 year track record of negotiating with the Shooters on a range of issues without once demonstrating a weaknesss in their resolve over firearms laws;
3. The SFF do not have a policy to bring back semi automatic rifles or licence 10 year olds – the two areas that the Howard ads specifically mention;
4. And yet, the coalition’s preference partner – the LNP does have such policies. Indeed the LNP believes in dismantling the whole firearms framework;
5. Of the two major parties in nsw it is the LNP that has a track record of trying to weaken the firearms framework. Specifically the stated support by various serving minsters for the Alder lever action shotgun – a weapon of mass murder if ever there was; and
6. The only party to do dodgy deals with the Shooters has been the current LNP Government – it tried to sneak in hunting in National Parks to secure the shooter’s votes, also weakening laws on marine parks and native vegetation clearing.
Shame on the mainstream media for phoning this in. Shame on them for not exposing this campaign for the duplicitous stunt that it is. Shame on the LNP for seeking to make political advantage of tradegy and shame on the media for not calling them out over it.
The NSW Parliamentary Budget Officer has published the Budget Impact Statement for the Premier and Leader of the Opposition. The Statements show the costs of each proposed policy, and the total impact of the policies on the New South Wales budget parliament.nsw.gov.au/pbo/Pages/2019… #nswpol
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/pbo/Pages/2019-Budget-Impact-Statements.aspx
The Liberal Democrat in Coffs, Greg Renet, is not exactly hugely credible. In his party bio, he manages to mention Coffs Harbour twice, misspelling it both times.
https://www.ldp.org.au/our_people_nsw
AE, I agree Parramatta is a stretch for the ALP but I’d still expect a 10% correction there making it close. Likely not enough though. Mulgoa on the other hand I’d be pretty shocked if the Liberals lost or even if it was close. It seems to me to be even less likely than Riverstone, with the better areas south of Penrith and the more upmarket housing estates near Fairfield. Also seems to have one of the stronger sitting members. I suspect Mulgoa and Riverstone are naturally swinging now rather than heartland seats the ALP will automatically reclaim.
Adrian
Not that it is of great moment , but do you have a view about the tpp figures in the seat poll based on the reported primaries?
Shellbell, the 2PP in those seat polls appears too good for Labor given the Shooters and One Nation are doing better than the Greens.
there is a margin of error of approx 5% based on the seat poll plus or minus
assume the figures are right sff neutral and largely exhaust not sure
again assume gr and onp roughly balance preference wise onp mainly lib and gr mainly alp
with maybe 10% leakage gr and 30% leakage on
7% left over 3.5 % each
so the 1% lib lead stands roughly 51/49 Goulburn in favour of the libs
given all my qualifications this is so tight
may depend on late efforts in this last week
Thanks Adrian
Andrew_Earlwood @ #22 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 3:34 pm
Too much talking words.
It’s time for the NSW Labor faithful to put on their Japanese headbands and go straight for the enemies throat!
No prisoners, comrade!
“The published 2PPs seem rather grim for Coalition off these primaries to me; wonder how they did them.”
Both Kevin and Adrian seem skeptical about the 2PP because of the primaries. I’m gnerally skeptical because of the inherent unreliability of single seat polls. However, I think – with great respect to both – I think the the real story of this election campaign is just how on the nose the LNP brand is. One Nation and Shooters are surging at the expense of the LNP and these folk will either exhaust their vote or make their vote count against the LNP by preferencing Labor in greater numbers than one might otherwise expect. I actually reckon there is a fair chance that these individual polls are actually underestimating Labor’s primary vote and it’s 2PP position.
From Poroti over the fold.
“Too much talking words.
It’s time for the NSW Labor faithful to put on their Japanese headbands and go straight for the enemies throat!
No prisoners, comrade!”
OK – how’s this:
“You can Trust Labor on guns because NSW Labor has dealt with the Shooters for 23 years on a range of issues without once weakening its position on gun control.
You can’t trust Gladys and the National Party on gun control because this governemnt presided over the introduction of a weapon of mass murder – the Adler lever action shotgun – into NSW. Now the Nationals are doing preference deals with the LDP – a party that wants to scrap our gun laws altogether!
You can’t trust Gladys when negotiating with the Shooters because she was prepared to allow hunting into our national parks in return for the Shooters agreeing to her disastrous electricity privatisation.”
Andrew_Earlwood @ #31 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
Mate, the Libs are lying about their polling.
We had the same in Victoria when we were told seats were trending to the Libs down the Frankston line. Only swings of 8-10 % to Labor.
Just go hard.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #33 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 7:03 pm
Don’t tell me. Tell everyone!
I’ve heard on the grapevine that NSW ALP HQ rate Andrew Constance’s seat of Bega, despite being on a margin of 8%, as the 4th most marginal in the state. It would be such a disappointment for him to lose his seat.
On another note, I always understood the SFF party as the LNP with guns.
Ok, I’ll ask that again…
How are things looking in Wagga Wagga?
yes…. my rough sums show a 50/50 is 51/49 in the libs favour for Goulburn but I am not sure of the accuracy of my assumptions…. this is based on expected distributions from primaries but given the possible inaccuracy of individual seat polls this says nothing that we did not know already… that the seat is in play
Michael Daley has been heard on video saying Asian immigrants are “taking the jobs” of young Australians. (Australian headline).
Andrew_Earlwood
Terrific ad in the making. Hope someone from NSW Labor sees it.
Especially good because the Coalition would accuse Labor of ‘politicising’ the issue in the wake of the NZ tragedy – but the public would just laugh at that after the Coalition had wheeled out their ex-PM.
A week out from the election, I am using the three second hand crystal balls I brought from Antony Green on Ebay to make my prediction-
ALP 44
Gains: Lismore; Upper Hunter; Monaro; Tweed; Myall Lakes; East Hills; Coogee; Penrith; Oatley; Balmain.
Coalition 41
Greens 2
Loss: Balmain
SFF 3
Gains : Heathcott and Murray
Independents 3
Retained
Total 93
Prediction: The ALP (44) forms minority Government with the support of the Greens (2) and Sydney Independent (1).
It could get worse for the Coalition, with three other seats in play and three on my watch list.
IN PLAY
Goulburn (6.6) v ALP; Holsworthy (6.7) v ALP; Clarence (9.7) v Independent [ex National incumbent]
WATCH LIST
Seven Hills (8.7) v ALP; Barwon (12.9) v SFF; Dubbo (20.4) v Independent [Ex Dubbo Mayor]
Discuss 😀
For Goulburn, last election the similar parties to SFF and ON preferenced at approx 25/15/60 LP/ALP/exhaust. If you use those figures, ALP would need roughly 2/3rds of Green preferences for 50/50. I would think 50/50 off primaries is reasonable but whether the preference flow is the same in this election is anyone’s guess.
NathanA @ #42 Tuesday, March 19th, 2019 – 8:33 am
agree
If easily to hand, NathanA, what were the green preference flows in 2015?
Further to Andrew_Earlwood posts on this thread https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/gun-control-nsw-election-issue-for-both-parties/10914036
A SFF deal with the Libs to sell the state-owned power generating assets was a mess and has caused them some grief so I guess that’s why some folks considering them Lib’s lite.
What are the pre-poll numbers till now in NSW state election?
All of the candidates and parties registered electorate material is now available on the Electoral Commission website.
https://htvdisplay.elections.nsw.gov.au/
The preference deal between the Coalition and David Leyonholm’s pro-gun Liberal Democrats is now officially recorded.
https://htvdisplay.elections.nsw.gov.au/static/files/DIS-2019-173.pdf
https://htvdisplay.elections.nsw.gov.au/static/files/COF-2019-14.pdf
https://www.ldp.org.au/firearms
Good one Gladys!
Shellbell
10/50/40 LNP/ALP/exhaust
Link:
http://pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SGE2015/la/goulburn/dop/dop/
EB – I’m hearing that Bega is gorne. Add that to your list of likely ALP gains. On the other hand I’d only have Balamain on the watch list. On your wait list I would add Bathurst, south coast and Kiama. Also Ballina (3 corner contest between incumbent Green, Labor and the Nat).
My ALP inside sources, which are impeccable, are telling me that western Sydney is not swinging, so only Penrith is in play. However star wise Labor now expect to pick up at least 10 seats and things are looking “very good”.