Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

  1. I have a great deal of time for Ardern, and respect the way she’s dealt with the aftermath.

    However, leadership isn’t reacting to events by doing something obvious – it’s doing the something obvious to prevent the events.

    Ardern reacted to the massacre in the same way John Howard reacted to Port Arthur. If you’re going to call her an inspired leader as a result, you have to extend the same courtesy to Howard.

    If she’d gone into the last election campaigning on gun laws, yes – but then she probably wouldn’t have won. And whoever had, whatever their livery, would be announcing gun restrictions now.

  2. Having already voted for any government that may be led by Michael Daley (got the name right this time), let me say that from over here in (today) Mt Somers, NZ, his “gaffe” re. TAFE (or whatever trivial nonesuch it was) and his stating of the bleedin’ obvious – that a relatively recent influx of mostly Chinese immigrants and investors has caused a bubble in house prices in the major capitals, rendering home ownership unaffordable for many of those cities’ native-born sons and daughters – have obviously been the last desperate measures of a lazy, corrupt Coalition government grown fat on shonky donations and rampant corruption (including of the higher echelons of the pox-ridden, glad-handing NSW Public Service).

    Whether those desperate measures will bear fruit, we shall see on Saturday. But let me say this: anyone saying that the huge increase in Chinese immigration of recent years has caused certain, shall we say, “economic imbalances” to occur, will see only a sea of nodding heads in agreement out there in Real Voterland (as opposed to Poll Bludger’s Little Shop Of PC Horrors, where nothing ever happened that shouldn’t be condemned, at some stage of its existence as an idea, brainfart or poor choice of words).

    First let me say that anything that’s in the SMH is Coalition horseshit. Anything that’s in a Murdoch tabloid is just plain ordinary horseshit. Anything on comnercial TV is similarly waste matter from the rear end of an equine arsehole.

    Got it?

    Don’t fall for the blustering bootstraps or the malignant megaphones of the mainstream media. They do NOT represent public opinion. They are in business simply to make money out of supporting conservative governments. Always have, always will. In return, conservatives proffer certain favours upon their media urgers. It’s the Great 69 of Australian politics: mutual masturbation that bears little resemblance to common sense, good management or enlightened government.

    Labor stalwarts all: quit wringing your hands in despair, grow a spine, and stop pretending that butterfly wings beating in Kogarah, or Epping, or North Ryde, or the front page of the Tele will have any effect on the cyclone that’s coming to clean out Macquarie St. of Liberal pestilence this Saturday.

  3. Here we go!

    Hamish Macdonald
    @hamishNews
    ·
    46m
    Tonight on
    @theprojecttv

    @channel10

    The Prime Minister
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    will be joining us for a one-on-one conversation with Waleed Aly. Live and commercial free. 6.30pm.

  4. BK @ #2355 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 3:26 pm

    Here we go!

    Hamish Macdonald
    @hamishNews
    ·
    46m
    Tonight on
    @theprojecttv

    @channel10

    The Prime Minister
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    will be joining us for a one-on-one conversation with Waleed Aly. Live and commercial free. 6.30pm.


    Saw that too BK but I think it was dated yesterday {20/3/2109}. I will have another look.

  5. Bushfire Bill
    says:
    It’s the Great 69 of Australian politics: mutual masturbation that bears little resemblance to common sense, good management or enlightened government.
    __________________________________
    You obviously don’t know how a 69 works. But here you are again working up an anti-Chinese narrative while enjoying a holiday paid for by the inflated price paid by Chinese migrants for your house. So, how about more time working out what a 69 is and less time trolling your hypocrisy about.

  6. Nath

    Tony Abbott has claimed has never seen The Tango Avenue street library before, lets not forget Abbott has been the Federal member for Warringah for over 20 years

  7. Scott
    says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 3:35 pm
    Nath
    Tony Abbott has claimed has never seen The Tango Avenue street library before, lets not forget Abbott has been the Federal member for Warringah for over 20 years
    _____________________
    It’s amazing the things you learn when you are forced to take an interest in your electorate.

  8. Pretty sure that Scomo is appearing tonight with Waleed.
    Sandra Silly tweeted it about an hour ago with a date stamp of 21/3.
    “Live and commercial free”. Until after scomo disappears in 10 minutes then we’ll have 4 minutes of ads.

  9. opinion polling in the last US election and the midterms didn’t accurately reflect the outcome. I would reserve judgment when it comes to Trump’s approval, those who vote and those who approve in n opinion poll are not necessarily the same thing. If it was – Hilary would have won in a landslide.

    Here, the last minute betting is probably suss given by-elections and Victoria’s results.

  10. Bushfire Bill @ #2354 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 3:26 pm

    Got it?
    ……

    Labor stalwarts all: quit wringing your hands in despair, grow a spine, and stop pretending that butterfly wings beating in Kogarah, or Epping, or North Ryde, or the front page of the Tele will have any effect on the cyclone that’s coming to clean out Macquarie St. of Liberal pestilence this Saturday..


    You forgot to take a swipe at small dogs Bill in your unhinged ‘GOT IT BOY’ tirade. Another one for the BLOCK bin. Ciao.

  11. “Live and commercial free”. Until after scomo disappears in 10 minutes then we’ll have 4 minutes of ads.

    Have the libs bought election adds in that timeslot?? 🙂

  12. The Toorak Toff says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 2:10 pm

    We have one marginal seat in SA – Boothby. All we’re hearing at the moment is that Nicolle Flint is being targeted by the terrible trifecta of Labor, the left-wing terrorists GetUp! and the bullies of the Union Movement.

    Poor little thing.

    Yes, this sweet little thing, butter wouldn’t melt in her mouth.

    Oh, and by the way, she’s made a career from advocating for more guns!

    She won’t be getting my vote! 🙂

  13. Federal Labor will lock in its commitment to build a fast train from Melbourne to Brisbane by promising to start buying the land corridor if elected.

    The Australian Financial Review understands that Labor will promise funds during the election campaign to start securing the corridor, which Infrastructure Australia estimates will cost a total of $2.8 billion.

    Shadow infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese, who has been pushing the project for several years, says there has been longstanding interest from China, Japan and Europe to build the rail line.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/labor-commits-to-build-fast-train-from-melbourne-to-brisbane-20190320-p515sz

  14. briefly, Kakuru

    On Brexit. I just posted something similar on the brexit thread.
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/16/brexit-minus-two-weeks-perhaps/

    A short extension would only be offered to allow the UK to pass the necessary legislation to enable May’s deal. If the UK won’t approve May’s deal, there is no point in even a short extension. If the UK comes back to the EU with something new on the table, such as a general election or referendum the EU might agree to a longer extension.

  15. Has there been any new rumors about LNP quitters, it feels like ages since Craig Laundy announced it.

    Who is top favorite to quit next from the tipsters ?

  16. Its getting late in the day but if I get enough names I will do another “Who is the next Coalition member to quit before the election?”

  17. EB thinks that blocking me will hurt my feelings, or alternatively, will turn him into a hero. I’ve been blocked by bigger pissants than you EB, and better ones. Never lost a minute’s sleep over it.

    You wish to wallow in misery, pretending to believe that the opinion pages of the SMH and the Tele actually do amount to more than a hill of beans. Wallow away pal, if it cheers you up.

    As for Nath: when you know what in the hell you’re talking about mate, or have an original thought, expressed in a way that causes your interlocutor to read it all the way through before falling into uncontrollable giggling, let me know.

  18. Key words/phrases from Morrison tonight :
    No comment
    That’s not true/it’s a lie
    No one loves Muslims more than me
    I’m focused on the future, not the past
    Bill Shorten

  19. BK,

    The footy starts tonight. It’s hard to work out which of that and this interview will be the more bruising!

    Morrison has a short fuse and Waleed quoting Morrison’s words back at him regarding anti-Islamic attitudes and actions and we might see Scott’s head explode.

    Obviously, Morrison has over ruled his minders and thinks he sort this all out with his boyish charm and bluster. What could possibly go wrong?

  20. For something completely different…

    Our results indicate that lying down does seem to influence how people make decisions, with participants struggling with random number generation. This indicates that people are therefore less prone to generating novel behaviours in the absence of gravity.

    Try guessing the context, and then click here.

    (I think they just fell asleep.)

  21. I hope Waleed doesn’t get sucked into a he said he said argument about 2010 but quickly moves onto the other 100 odd whistle blows Scott/ Dutton/ Abbot have made.. its not one sin it’s many

  22. Of course I’m not as smart as ScoMo but he would have been wiser to say that yes, he had brought up the subject of Muslims in the context of policy planning for the election. That was all.

    Much better than denying he ever mentioned them. Losing his temper was a bad move.

  23. Sceptic @ #2390 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 3:19 pm

    I hope Waleed doesn’t get sucked into a he said he said argument about 2010 but quickly moves onto the other 100 odd whistle blows Scott/ Dutton/ Abbot have made.. its not one sin it’s many

    Yeah, that. He should have quotes ready to go. Not just from that one meeting but from all the other times the Coalition has played on anti-immigrant/anti-refugee/anti-Muslim sentiment for political gain.

    steve davis @ #2391 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 3:19 pm

    You can bet your bottom dollar Morrison is not going to admit to saying anything of that sort in that meeting.

    Precisely why Waleed needs to have public, easily verified quotes to corroborate Morrison’s pattern of behavior.

    Or he could just show video of what that one minister said on the most recent Q&A about Medivac. That was pretty appalling too.

  24. Federal Labor will lock in its commitment to build a fast train from Melbourne to Brisbane

    Not in my great great grandchildren’s life time

  25. All we need is for Turnbull and/or Bishop (who I’m assuming were both in the shadow cabinet meeting) to tweet during the broadcast, “I can confirm the content of Lenore Taylor’s original article is indeed correct”.

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