Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

  1. (My post on the NSW election – reposted from the NSW thread)

    I may be totally wrong but I think if the LNP win, it will become the “one too many successive election election wins” that befell Labor in 2007. Some thoughts:

    It will almost certainly be a minority government and the minority partners will be looking for their pound of flesh. The Liberals seem to do worse than Labor when governing in a minority.

    With the Nationals federally facing serious internal issues, their state counterparts will be caught up in the instability to some extent and that is not good for the stability of a NSW Liberal/National/Whomever government.

    They will face a somewhat fractured upper house and good luck negotiating with ON and the LDP.

    There is a near 100% chance of a Federal Labor government in the near future and the direction of Federal funds will be somewhat different to what it is at present. Almost certainly what Berejiklian wants will not be what Shorten wants.

    Massive disruption from infrastructure projects will continue and the people who are currently unhappy will remain unhappy with the government. When private motorists and truckies start paying all the extra road tolls they will be unhappy.

    The existing rail system will continue to offer sub-optimal performance, struggling under the weight of increased patronage and declining infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, passengers travelling long distances on the new metro will be asking “where are the seats?”

    We’ll see how Gladys manages to cope.

  2. “I like butter. And I like peanuts. But I dont like peanut butter. Weird”.

    My kids often quote this line at me, then fall about laughing. Wierd.

  3. Re Beto O’Rourke and his “credentials”: I don’t know what to think of Beto (I’m not entirely sure I like the idea of President O’Rourke), but he has credentials. Three terms in Congress, plus being the Democrat who came within 3% of scoring a State-wide win in Texas for the first time since 1994. He clearly knows how to campaign, say what you will about the man.

  4. Simon² Katich® says:

    30 minutes, 1 on 1? No breaks?

    Scotty wants to go full gabble gabble an unbroken 30 minutes of circular breathing. It is well within his abilities so the question is can Waleed get a word in ?

  5. Now he puts it to Scomo directly that there is islamophobia in the Coalition.
    Doesn’t matter, says Sco, it’s what the leader says and does, and I’m perfect.

  6. @Sprocket: With all due respect to President Erdogan (aka “Sultan Recceptayip I of the House of Erdogan”), Turkey has no rights in regards to Cyprus. None. Zero. Turkey illegally invaded Cyprus in 1974, and has systematically engaged in mass settlement there since, displacing the Greek Cypriots from the so-called “TRNC”. They got away with it because the US needed them to stay on-side in the Cold War, and by the time that faded, it was considered an old problem; no political capital in sorting it out. At the moment, Israel’s bad behaviour occupies the headlines far more often than theirs, which allows them to continue.

    But Turkey has zero rights as regards Cyprus. Actually, scratch that – Turkey has one right in Cyprus: To withdraw from Cyprus, and take its people with it, and apologize and pay restitution to the (Greek) Cypriot people and State. For the (Greek) Cypriots killed in the invasion and since, the homes demolished, the towns obliterated, the tens of thousands of (Greek) Cypriots displaced, the priceless cultural and spiritual heritage of Cyprus looted and destroyed like that of Iraq, and the development and prosperity destroyed by the situation Turkey, alone, chose to create in its asinine, Quixotic bid to resurrect its Imperial pretensions.

    I’m sorry, but any statement which purports to assign “rights” to Turkey as regards Cyprus is instantly discredited in my eyes. And if I sound like some kind of revanchist or irredentist…well, so be it.

  7. “Tanya struggled to avoid answering question from Karvelas about “racist” comments from Daley.
    Or so it seemed”

    What the frack is anyone in the federal ALP leadership team agreeing to be interviewed for the remainder of this week by msm folk like Karvelas on the hunt for anything to either damage NSW Labor or create an anti Labor wedge?

  8. Re Essential poll predictions: My money (ha!) is on 51.5-48.5 ALP. Essential is frequently contrary, and I suspect a lot of “moderately conservative” people are feeling “pressured” by the Christchurch attack to side against the Coalition and its nonstop dogwhistling. Being the frail, fragile snowflakes they are, they’ll double down and “defiantly” stand with Scummo.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2486 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 6:52 pm

    “Tanya struggled to avoid answering question from Karvelas about “racist” comments from Daley.
    Or so it seemed”

    What the frack is anyone in the federal ALP leadership team agreeing to be interviewed for the remainder of this week by msm folk like Karvelas on the hunt for anything to either damage NSW Labor or create an anti Labor wedge?

    Like to listen myself before judging. Sceptic seems to have an agenda.

  10. Ali – will you preference ON last? Morrison refuses to give direct answer. Will wait to see who nominates and what party decides.
    Ali – repeats question a few times. Morrison ditto.

  11. So twitter seems to be scoring it like 99:1 for Waleed.
    PB seems to have it more like 50:50.
    And I’ve heard anecdotal reports that Facebook is like 1:99.

    What gives?

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