BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Good luck Cat! A vote for Gladys B . is a vote for Allan J…….

    Thanks, UpNorth. We’ll need it! We need to get a 9% swing to win the seat I’m in. It’s the blue riband seat for the Liberals on the Central Coast. We have a much better chance in the federal election. However, that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to win because of the unpredictable nature of this election, as Antony Green said. 🙂

  2. Thanks C@t
    My football(soccer) tragic’s life has started again at the community junior level and I run out of time and energy.
    PB, yourself and others is a saviour.

  3. While the dominant voices on this blog are the voices of a small number of bloggers because they produce a very large number of posts their pre-occupations/obsessions determine the blog’s culture, character and even the limits of what is acceptable.

    Anything to do with the “greens” seems to be like dangling a poor trussed up live rabbit before a slavering team of greyhounds.

    It’s feeding frenzy time!!!

    Three things intrigue me:

    1 why does a small middle class socially progressive but pretty ineffective party get them so obsessed?

    2. Why is attacking/destroying the “greens” more important than attacking the LNP? and

    3. What would the ALP right-wing lab-rats on here do if the dreaded “greens” disappeared?

  4. Jeez, my sister, who has voted Green for donkeys years, said that for the NSW State (Balmain) and Federal Elections, she’s “coming home to labor” . Her kids are following her. On that basis, I am confident that Jamie Parker will get smashed and it’s not going to be pretty for the Greens federally either.

  5. Have a look at Barnaby’s face – the contempt is palpable .. so funny

    ‘ How the f… did we end up with this drongo running the National Party ?.. Looks down at zipper, oh yeah !!

  6. @swamprat

    In the USA, I think it was fox news, saying they should avoid Socialism.

    Do you want to argue what Labor does, or focus on what is the problems?

  7. With the evidence being as stark as that, why isn’t Federal labour portraying Turnbull as the man who wasted tens of billions of taxpayers dollars on a temporary network?

  8. Zoidlord says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 9:05 pm
    @swamprat

    In the USA, I think it was fox news, saying they should avoid Socialism.

    Do you want to argue what Labor does, or focus on what is the problems?
    ———
    Zoidlord

    I’m only on my first Scotch but I have no idea what you might be saying. Sorry

    🙂

  9. Isn’t one of the problems with legal system the price of access?

    Yeah clients expect the world, and don’t like paying a good price.

  10. antonbruckner11 @ #2763 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 6:03 pm

    Jeez, my sister, who has voted Green for donkeys years, said that for the NSW State (Balmain) and Federal Elections, she’s “coming home to labor” . Her kids are following her. On that basis, I am confident that Jamie Parker will get smashed and it’s not going to be pretty for the Greens federally either.

    I’ve always wondered how the very public problems the Greens have had in NSW would play out electorally. Yes there have been reports of members resigning en masse, but there was a news report the other day saying that since Buckingham left the party, the membership has recovered somewhat.

  11. 2. Why is attacking/destroying the “greens” more important than attacking the LNP?

    If you don’t think commenters here regularly and routinely criticise the coalition (to the point that there are no Liberal PBers apart from Davidwh who comment here), then I don’t know what you’ve been reading.

  12. Zoidlord

    “@swamprat

    Of course you won’t, but since you are blaming Labor right under the influence….
    ——

    Blaming Labor? What was I blaming Labor for?

    I was criticising the obsessions and dominance of some bloggers on here.

  13. swamprat

    Your questions are, IMO, context free.

    The real question is this:

    Why did Burnside choose of all people, prioritize an attack Shorten during his first extended presser on the ABC?

  14. Confessions

    “If you don’t think commenters here regularly and routinely criticise the coalition (to the point that there are no Liberal PBers apart from Davidwh who comment here), then I don’t know what you’ve been reading.”
    ———-

    Yes, i know there are criticisms of LNP policy and personalities.

    But the criticism of the LNP seems more pro-forma.

    There is never the seemingly obsessive repetition of attacks on the LNP like is done with some hapless green amateur, e.g. Burnside today.

    I think it is obsessive, boring and, in some cases, a bit unhinged.

    i checked in every hour or so hoping the obsession would have run to exhaustion.

  15. My OH is watching Sixty Minutes with a story on Hanson and Latham the happy couple.

    My guess is Latham will stay friendly with Hanson until he is elected to the NSW Legislative Council and then after a while there will be a bust up.

    Leopards don’t change their spots.

  16. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-coalition-notches-up-50th-consecutive-loss/news-story/8f6a779bb1f5fa5939caf7bda8106a8b

    The Coalition has notched up its 50th consecutive Newspoll loss with its worst result for the year following further Cabinet retirements and the breakout of hostilities with claims by both Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop that they would have won the election.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition losing popular support for the first time this year and suffering a two point turnaround in the two-party preferred vote to trail Labor 46-54.

  17. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    16s16 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 7 (+2) #auspol

  18. There is never the seemingly obsessive repetition of attacks on the LNP like is done with some hapless green amateur, e.g. Burnside today.

    What? Have you missed William having to chip and censure commenters for their abuse of Liberal women’s physical appearance and the like? Have you missed the repetitive and constant slurs against Liberal MPs such as Pyne and others which slant towards the homophobic?

    By contrast, the criticisms of Burnside have centered around his actions, his public statements and his conduct. Perhaps you find this exhausting and untenable because you have no plausible response to counter those criticisms.

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