BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. ‘EB says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 7:46 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 7:41 pm
    A-E
    By such little acts do you get an insight into the true meaning of colonialism.
    Belgian colonial soldiers in the Congo played cards using the naked bodies of pygmies for tables.
    Rhodes men enjoyed tiffin under a tree from which hanged freedom fighters twirled in the breeze.
    The heroes of the Myall Creek Massacre saved just one person: a young woman.

    More drunken dribble.’

    Goodness me. EB wants us to get off the topic of Burnside by having a flame war about colonial bad things.

    All of the above are well documented, as it turns out. The lads weren’t all that shy about it. There is a photo of the tiffin affair.
    As for the Belgians, if they rubber quota from a village was not up to scratch they cut off some hands. Naturally they took images of this enlightened approach to IR.
    There are images available of the various treatment of the Congo pygmies.
    I assume that A-E has good documentation for the jam boys. He knows his history, does A-E.
    As for the Myall Creek Massacre, the lads saved a young woman. Again, the ‘saving’ is well documented. But a discreet veil has been drawn over for what purpose.

    I note in passing the absolutely superb series in The Guardian on the Frontier Wars. The most recent is on the subject of the conquest of what came to be known as Gippsland.

  2. Why thank you, Briefly.

    People usually only associate us with rats, pond life, and sharks.

    A few on here will be chuffed.

  3. Fwiw….Abbott’s brand is totally busted. He has totally discredited himself. There’s nothing he can do now. Voters will flee in their droves and coalesce around a viable alternative. Excellent.

  4. the fake newspoll results are starting to filter into twitter.

    the BugOnline character has jumped the shark with his mockup of the SmearStralian, prognosticating ALP 61 LNP 39, whilst at least one egg tweep with 3 followers is crowing no change 53/47.
    And then we have the smartarses with their Wow tweets

  5. Has Morrison run out of taxpayers’ money for advertising? So far tonight two adverts from Clive and one from NSW Labor attacking the Liberals. None from Morrison (thank goodness!)

  6. briefly:

    Abbott has been the Member for Warringah since 1994 and will therefore be hard to beat. Steggall is definitely the underdog.

  7. Banks named Abbott as the driver for the Dutton ‘assault on leadership’ (my terminology, not Banks’s).

    A little bit of aid and comfort to a fellow Indie with that comment (not discounting that Abbott drove things but timely confirmation)

  8. citizen @ #2708 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 8:07 pm

    Has Morrison run out of taxpayers’ money for advertising? So far tonight two adverts from Clive and one from NSW Labor attacking the Liberals. None from Morrison (thank goodness!)

    I saw one from the NSW Liberals. So old fashioned. The worst photos that they could dredge up of Michael Daley and Bill Shorten and a couple of big, red transparent dice, with the implication being, don’t roll the dice you might get Labor.

    La-mo.

  9. FS….2 of my offspring are lawyers. They are very good people…great values, great personal courage and integrity, great capacity for work too…

    When they were growing up they each asked what I thought of them becoming lawyers. I encouraged them and said they would have to bear in mind that they would be serving people who could not do for themselves what they would be asking of their lawyer. They had to see their careers as choosing to serve others. They’ve applied that. They have had good careers so far. I’m proud of them…of their dedication and their integrity.

    One is now involved (just recently) in financial supervision and regulation. The other is a barrister in London – hardest cases, most demanding courts and clients, most competitive environment….

    There are lots of laws. We need good lawyers. We need better laws. We need better lawyers too.

  10. Here is someone for Curtin to vote for. Or shake their pearls at.
    https://thewest.com.au/politics/multimillionaire-louise-stewart-to-contest-curtin-seat-vacated-by-julie-bishop-ng-b881129118z

    “Multimillionaire businesswoman Louise Stewart has confirmed she will contest Julie Bishop’s seat of Curtin and revealed she has been in talks with high-profile independents Kerryn Phelps and Zali Steggall.”

    “Like probably the rest of the electorate I am quite terrified by the prospect of a Shorten government … but I’ve lost total confidence in the Liberal Party,” Ms Stewart said.

  11. Fess…. I beg to differ. People want change. In Warringah, this means disposing of Abbott. People are really very unhappy…they will express it.

  12. Steggall is definitely the underdog.

    Nah, not any more. It’s hers to lose. And she doesn’t seem to be making rookie errors. She’s certainly not the one looking desperate by reactively flapping in the breeze.

    The simple truth is Tony Abbott isn’t something that gets more attractive with increased exposure. But he’s going to be forcing himself on a lot of people who just wish he’d go away for the next 10 weeks.

  13. briefly, ratsak:

    Well I hope you’re right and Abbott is booted. But he still is the sitting member and that has to count for something in terms of his re-election .

  14. From the Stewart article:

    Ms Stewart said while she had been approached by Labor State secretary Matt Dixon to talk about preferences, she would not be giving preferences to the ALP.

    “Like probably the rest of the electorate I am quite terrified by the prospect of a Shorten government … but I’ve lost total confidence in the Liberal Party,” Ms Stewart said.

  15. “Sorry, the problem is just the opposite. People like Burnside do not represent “us”. They are elites, who completely fail to understand just how far removed from “us” they really are … until they get their noses rubbed in it, as Burnside has.”

    What? You’re saying I’m not one of the elites?

  16. briefly
    says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 8:12 pm
    FS….2 of my offspring are lawyers. They are very good people…great values, great personal courage and integrity, great capacity for work too…
    _______________________________
    That’s great but until proven otherwise I’m going to add ‘presumptive racists’.

  17. “How could you be ‘terrified by the prospect of a Shorten government’!?!”

    For a multimillionaire Perth business women?

    Let me count the ways …

  18. Been out all day and came home and read the day’s offerings. Other than the usual ganging up on Pegasus and Player 1 (ho hum) by the usuals, the major theme of today (for about the 4th day I think) was Burnside.

    I am really surprised how detailed a knowledge of his personality, values, and personal history is in the possession of the group who have written him off. It seems some have been so closely associated with him, studying him for years that they know confidently and intimately that he is a total waste of space.

    Or is it just precious and prejudicial group think by those who spend so much time here Green whinging, and based only on the reports that 40 years ago he joined an all men’s club. And bugger any good work he has done in the last 20 years in the area of human rights……. being in an all men’s club trumps any good deeds, any decent values, any positive characteristics he might otherwise bring to the table.

  19. C@tmomma @ #2734 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 5:22 pm

    How could you be ‘terrified by the prospect of a Shorten government’!?!

    When you’re used to the status quo favouring the likes of yourself as wealthy individuals, the prospect of a Labor govt pledging to tip the balance in favour of the masses, there’d be lots to be frightened about!

  20. Confessions @ #2734 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:27 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2734 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 5:22 pm

    How could you be ‘terrified by the prospect of a Shorten government’!?!

    When you’re used to the status quo favouring the likes of yourself as wealthy individuals, the prospect of a Labor govt pledging to tip the balance in favour of the masses, there’d be lots to be frightened about!

    A spectre is haunting Austrlia — the spectre of a Labor Government. All the powers of old Australia have entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this spectre: Pope and Murdoch, Abbott and Morrison, Greens and the AFP.
    (Minor adaptation from the Communist Manifesto – K Marx)

  21. Fess,

    Howard had been in his seat longer than Abbott has. Howard was the current PM, not a washed up reject. Yeah Howard didn’t have the same sort of margin, but he was also no where near as much a joke.

    Incumbency won’t save Abbott.

  22. Psyclaw @ #3232 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:27 pm

    based only on the reports that 40 years ago he joined an all men’s club

    Well, he does seem to have maintained his membership in that club until quite recently. So fair enough to criticize him for that.

    But taking it to the next level, and making like Burnside is anti-Semitic or a misogynist in the same vein as Trump/Kavanaugh/Weinstein/etc. is disingenuous and hyperbolic in the extreme.

    And helping the shameless faux-outrage-spewing culture-war-inciting snowflakes on the Coalition’s side advance these points as if they have merit is downright counterproductive.

  23. Two more TV adverts. Country Labor (positive theme with Daley voiceover). Then Clive. Still no Morrison taxpayer funded adverts. Yay!

  24. Pysclaw,

    If you had read them you’d realise it’s manly been about how dumb the Greens have been in preparing and presenting him as their candidate, but your not one to jump to conclusions.

    Any other stuff has normally come from attempts to deflect. 🙂

  25. ajm:

    Yeah I think a lot of the fevered excitement about Shorten and Labor has been overblown. If people really want to feel frightened about a federal govt, I’m uncertain why they aren’t frightened about the fact the incumbent federal govt have increased our nation’s debt to record highs, with no apparent plausible plan to reduce it.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 8:42 pm
    Goll @ #2734 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 8:30 pm

    C@t
    Have you an update of today’s goings-on?

    No, I didn’t attend, even though I was invited 50 gazillion times (automated emails boo! clogging up my inbox). However, I start my stint on the Pre Polls on Tuesday, so I will be able to channel feedback to PB from then on.
    ———————————————————————————-
    Good luck Cat! A vote for Gladys B . is a vote for Allan J…….

  27. What this site evidences is that the lives of some revolve around “conversing” by tapping the alphabet on a screen

    Meanwhile, in the real world you have those you associate with socially

    You meet those you associate with socially thru various sources including organisations (such as Rotary and including by membership of political parties) and by being introduced so people you have been introduced to introducing you to others

    Such is life

    Many meet their spouse by such process

    Simply, we all have our social network (well perhaps not all taking some on this site into account)

    This is also the case on business – and some you meet in business become life long friends because of mutual respect plus that you like the other person – and, of course, there are confidences involved because proprietary says there must be

    The point of this is that I do not understand the attacks of key board warriors on face to face associations – and the premise of such associations being described as they are described

    Burnside being a member of the Kelvin Club has been made an issue because of the gender restriction on membership – not entry to the facilities

    It goes back a few years now, and from 40 years ago, but I do not recall any move to amend the membership criteria at the Kelvin Club – and the current status would seem to me at least, support this

    And, as with other venues, it was a place where you could entertain and be entertained, consolidating and expanding your social circle (hence your membership being reimbursed by your employer)

    Those expansions of your social circle in such surrounds (so, without being “snobbish”, but not in the front bar of your local) saw opportunity to establish a banker/customer relationship – and the growth of the lending book of the bank was what you were paid to do (along with manage the risk because lending is a risk industry regardless of any other consideration)

    That is the other life to 24 hours a day on a keyboard “discussing” on sites such as this – not that there is “discussion”, more an attempted brain washing exercise resulting in concussion

    In terms of venues frequented there were (and still are) others of course

    Melbourne also has many very fine establishments – and at many of the tables the guests are of only one gender

    At other tables there are guests of mixed gender

    Such is life

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