BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Imacca

    Yes the Midwest is a great spot for nature lovers
    There has been a good feel from the people I have met since I started visiting here a few months ago.
    A good harvest does that.
    Seem to be a lot of new machines in dealer yards waiting for delivery
    No recession here.

  2. “Billy Hughes was a member of the Savage Club while ALP Prime Minister.”

    Ah, 1915. Good times. Perhaps we should Julian back in time, replete with pith hat, fly swat and a jam boy.

  3. Fess

    Most aforementioned Liberals not voting for Abbott said they wouldnt vote for Abbott and are considering voting for Steggal. Most said they hadnt made their mind up who to vote for other than not Abbott.

    Briefly
    With GetUp. Im not involved in Steggal’s campaign.

  4. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2652 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    “Billy Hughes was a member of the Savage Club while ALP Prime Minister.”

    Ah, 1915. Good times. Perhaps we should Julian back in time, replete with pith hat, fly swat and a jam boy.

    Burnside’s mistake was probably in resigning. It shows a distinct lack of courage in his own convictions.

  5. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 6:09 pm
    @ratsak: I find it fracking ridiculous for the Greens to seriously propose nationalising electricity generators. All that would do would be to socialise stranded assets – mainly 19th century pieces of kit, whilst denying us the benefits of private investments in new technologies, which are themselves rapidly changing.

    By all means socialise (or preserve in public ownership of it has been sold) the electricity grid, poles and wires, but let’s focus on the main game – making the national energy market work via regulatory reform.

    I know, that sounds boring and doesn’t permit a heck of a lot of “look at me” virtue signalling like a nationalisation campaign does. No wonder the Greens have no truck with it. Sounds too much like hard work. The stuff of government. Sacrebleu!
    ———————————————————————————-
    Just saw that flyer for the Green candidate in Griffith. Must have been designed etc by Southerners. In Queensland the Government still owns the majority of Generators and the Poles and Wires. Oh and Queenslanders enjoy the lowest prices in Australia. By all means get that bug stick out.

  6. From Google:

    “The Jam Boy was first introduced as early as the 1800s when the British Empire occupied India. When the British gentry went to play golf, they would have two men, the caddy and a Jam Boy.

    The Jam Boys sole purpose was to keep the mosquitoes away from the golfer. To do this, the Jam Boy would cover himself in Jam to attract the mosquitoes away from the players. When the game was over the Jam Boy got to keep the jam he was wearing to take home to his family.

    Look at all the mosquitoes; I can hardly see the fairway, fetch the Jam Boys immediately!”

  7. IoM…cheers.

    How do voters respond to GetUp? They’re not so active in a Perth… little contact with them here…

    Great to hear they want to give Abbott the shove.

  8. I’ve waited a long time to rejoice in Abbott loosing his seat, hope I’m not disappointed. Still remember fondly that great evening in November 2007 when Howard lost his.

  9. Way, way back at 10.40 am this morning I linked to an interview on ABC’s RN Sunday Extra about the growing international power of the “stealth right”in politics. The interviewer, an American professor of history, made reference to the role of the IPA in Australia’s politics. She also referred to Gina Reinhart and her money/influence. I find myself wondering if the result this afternoon in the Curtin pre-selection is a manifestation of this growing influence. The selected candidate would appear to have the “appropriate”track record.

  10. Banks said she made a speech in parliament and Morrison texted her saying that she should have told him that she was making a speech,therefore in her opinion the free speech aspect of the party was compromised.

  11. @upnorth:

    “In Queensland the Government still owns the majority of Generators and the Poles and Wires”

    You do realise that the government still owning the (coal fired) generators gives the RWNJs complete licence to replace them with tax payer owned and funded new coal fired power stations if and when ther is a change in state government? That’s a pretty risky situation to be in IMO.

  12. I’m a member of a rugby club that doesn’t allow women to play in their senior grades, but relegates them to a separate women’s competition.

    I am getting most angsty about this sexism.

    Should I resign?

  13. “I’m a member of a rugby club that doesn’t allow women to play in their senior grades, but relegates them to a separate women’s competition.

    I am getting most angsty about this sexism.

    Should I resign?”

    No, however I suggest you take up shark jumping as an alternative sport.

  14. Upnorth @ #3160 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 6:27 pm

    By all means socialise (or preserve in public ownership of it has been sold) the electricity grid, poles and wires

    There’s no point in doing that if you don’t also do public ownership of all large-scale generation. What good is controlling the distribution network if private entities control the cost of everything that gets put into it? The end-user will still get robbed blind.

    If you want to rein in power prices, you have to control the generators as well. Either directly or through a regulatory framework that’s so restrictive on how much a private operator can charge for their generation that private operators won’t be interested in doing it and the public will be forced to take over anyways.

    There’s no room for private profit in the production and/or delivery of essential services.

  15. Bennelong Lurker @ #1390 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 7:30 pm

    Way, way back at 10.40 am this morning I linked to an interview on ABC’s RN Sunday Extra about the growing international power of the “stealth right”in politics. The interviewer, an American professor of history, made reference to the role of the IPA in Australia’s politics. She also referred to Gina Reinhart and her money/influence. I find myself wondering if the result this afternoon in the Curtin pre-selection is a manifestation of this growing influence. The selected candidate would appear to have the “appropriate”track record.

    Indubitably correct. In less than 3 months we will have a new government and the Owners of the current shit shower will abandon their satraps and spivs to their fates.

  16. We need to protest Men’s Sheds for their role in maintaining the patriarchy. What are they doing in those sheds? It’s concerning. 🙂

  17. Andrew_Earlwood @ #3168 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 6:32 pm

    You do realise that the government still owning the (coal fired) generators gives the RWNJs complete licence to replace them with tax payer owned and funded new coal fired power stations if and when ther is a change in state government? That’s a pretty risky situation to be in IMO.

    There is that risk, sure. Though the likely outcome would simply be another change in government at the next election. And in the meantime Queensland has actually been enjoying falling power prices (under a Labor government).

  18. briefly says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 6:15 pm

    The Savages are a colonial relic – elitist, anti-worker, sexist and most likely presumptively racist.

    – Off he goes again with his baseless hyperbole – I’m going to presume GG BW and BRIEFLY are morons and leave it at that.

  19. A-E
    By such little acts do you get an insight into the true meaning of colonialism.
    Belgian colonial soldiers in the Congo played cards using the naked bodies of pygmies for tables.
    Rhodes men enjoyed tiffin under a tree from which hanged freedom fighters twirled in the breeze.
    The heroes of the Myall Creek Massacre saved just one person: a young woman.

  20. Banks fingered Abbott, Dutton and Hunt and insinuated Morrison in that lot after he texted her tut tut when she gave a speech about children in detention. She also said at the time she was preselected she wasn’t given a position on the speech list for a local event, and when she asked why not, some blokesville bloke told her they’d let her have the prize barrel.

    But apart from that she didn’t really say anything we didn’t already know. Jobs for the boys and whispered promises in exchange for votes in the leadership spill. She voted for JBishop, and thinks she’s the Prime Minister we should’ve had after Turnbull got knifed.

  21. I’m a member of a rugby club that doesn’t allow women to play in their senior grades, but relegates them to a separate women’s competition.

    If the rugby club refuses to allow women to join as members then I’d be asking myself why I wanted to belong to such a club.

  22. I bet he’s thrilled to know another religious happy clapper will be joining the partyroom.

    Scott MorrisonVerified account@ScottMorrisonMP
    35m35 minutes ago
    Congratulations to Professor Celia Hammond, selected today as our Liberal Candidate for Curtin. As a former Uni Vice-Chancellor, Celia will bring great experience, adding further strength to our team.

  23. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 7:41 pm
    A-E
    By such little acts do you get an insight into the true meaning of colonialism.
    Belgian colonial soldiers in the Congo played cards using the naked bodies of pygmies for tables.
    Rhodes men enjoyed tiffin under a tree from which hanged freedom fighters twirled in the breeze.
    The heroes of the Myall Creek Massacre saved just one person: a young woman.

    More drunken dribble.

  24. ar – Vote 1 for public ownership of stranded assets. Vote 1 for beurocrats making those entrepreneurial breakthroughs to transform energy generation.

    What’s for point of government owning the grid, poles and wires? They are natural monopolies. That’s what.

  25. Oh, they can join, they can vote, they can play, they can (and are) in numbers on the committee.

    It’s just that bit about playing in the men’s comp ….

  26. I’ve heard one name put forward for Curtin….female, lawyer, lifelong resident, great values around equality, climate change, social inclusion…never affiliated with any party….articulate, able to raise the money….very well connected in the electorate….

    Will keep the bludgers updated…

  27. “More drunken dribble.”

    I get the sense that the Greens and their hangers on are not enjoying their walk down the hall of mirrors.

  28. Oh, they can join, they can vote, they can play, they can (and are) in numbers on the committee.

    Then there is no analogy with clubs like the Melbourne Savage Club.

  29. Ides:

    Most aforementioned Liberals not voting for Abbott said they wouldnt vote for Abbott and are considering voting for Steggal. Most said they hadnt made their mind up who to vote for other than not Abbott.

    I’ve been shocked at the number of my family members living in Warringah who have become taken with Steggall. An aunt is even one of Zali’s Angels!

    I suspect it’s just bias because of family posting on Facebook and because I follow Steggall on Insta, but her campaign does look to be going great guns so far. She has people out on the ground every day, and they are highly visible in those teal coloured tees.

  30. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 7:51 pm
    It’s that “lawyer” bit that worries me Briefly.

    In her case, means she’s articulate, organised, literate….Gough was a lawyer…. so is Mark McGowan…

  31. Andrew_Earlwood @ #3188 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 6:48 pm

    entrepreneurial breakthroughs to transform energy generation.

    Those breakthroughs generally aren’t entrepreneurial. The world doesn’t have nuclear power because of entrepreneurs. If fusion power becomes a reality, it won’t be because of private, for-profit operators. Even in the solar/renewables space where there are private operators aplenty, most of the actual technological breakthroughs aren’t being made by entrepreneurs.

    Letting the public scientific agencies who actually do the hard yards on the R&D and technological breakthrough side carry their own work to its logical conclusion makes a lot more sense than throwing it over to anyone who thinks they can personally profit from it.

  32. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2668 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 6:32 pm

    @upnorth:

    “In Queensland the Government still owns the majority of Generators and the Poles and Wires”

    You do realise that the government still owning the (coal fired) generators gives the RWNJs complete licence to replace them with tax payer owned and funded new coal fired power stations if and when ther is a change in state government? That’s a pretty risky situation to be in IMO.

    The Queensland government has just set up an authority to invest in utility scale renewables so the potential to shift back to coal will be limited by cost considerations if the government has both fossil fuel and renewables in its portfolio – it will obviously have to use the lowest cost generation.

    They have also mothballed some coal plants and brought back into operation a gas plant to use for managing peaks.

    Things seem t be going in the right direction but of course not fast enough for the Greens.

  33. And the teal colour was a wonderful choice for the electorate, given almost every photo of Steggall’s team out campaigning invariably appear with the beach behind them. It’s like her campaign colour is becoming synonymous with the electorate, and I’m sure that was a deliberate strategy on Steggall’s part.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BuxHp-jHO_k/

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