BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Here are the votes: Celia Hammond 51, Anna Dartnell 28, Andres Timmermanis 1, Karen Caddy 1, Erin Watson-Lynn 1.

    Was Erin Watson-Lynn Bishops choice [reading between the lines] ? One vote. That’s going to cost the Liberals at least half a Million in campaign funding for marginals if Bishop has anything to do with it.

  2. Just working from memory, but I think the Notre Dame University was started by the right wing forces in the Catholic Church in Australia (read Pell et al) because the Australian Catholic University (which I think is essentially a federation of a lot of Catholic institutions with a long history like teachers colleges and colleges of nursing and now other branches) was considered too left wing for their view of Catholic orthodoxy (which involves ditching a whole lot of the advances made at the Vatican II Council under Pope John XXIII)

  3. and believe him, he has credibility.

    He may well have done all he could to get the club to be open to all, we will never know as he didn’t speak publicly about what he’d done.

    Personally, my experience is that white men of privilege are very adept at hanging onto that privilege, and unwilling to let it go unless they absolutely have to.

    My guess is that had this not come out at all Burnside would still be a member of the Savage Club, still attending its events, maybe inviting his wife along after the 4.30pm curfew time when women are allowed, and not doing much at all publicly to get the club to change its membership rules.

  4. sprocket_ @ #2581 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 5:23 pm

    Julie Bishop tweets..

    Congratulations to Celia Hammond on her pre-selection for Liberal Party in the magnificent seat of #Curtin. I wish her all the very best in upcoming election. There is no greater calling than representing your community, your state and your country in the national Parliament

    Isn’t she just a “loyal girl”. Loyalty is a fine principle but not when it’s the only one.

  5. The Hammond quaddie:

    1. No abortion choice
    2. No sex before marriage
    3. No contraception except for the Vatican Roulette, as rubber-stamped by Pell.
    4. No same sex marriage.

    EVERYTHING ELSE IS OK!

  6. It is good to see that, when it comes to patriarchal institutions, Burnside has finally found some #metoo moral fibre and quit.

    It only took 40 years.

    But better late than never.

  7. WWP:

    Please take a breath and calm down.

    Jeez when I said earlier mentioning Burnside’s name is a serious trigger for some people I wasn’t wrong! 😆

  8. The London Savages have had various kings and princes in their membership and produced a Masonic sapling too.

    Monarchist, elitist, club for good chaps… membership by invitation…affiliated to similar clubs spread all around the remnants of the British Empire…a living/breathing connection with the 19th century…to Lib-Nursery Land….

  9. Enough about Burnside! @ #2404 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:03 pm

    And this is what I love (/sarcasm) about PB as a reader . I dare not intrude and contribute because look at what happens to those that do dare.

    Days upon days upon days and pages upon pages are spent wasting time on a candidate from a minor party about what every particular word he may have ever uttered or every action he has ever taken could possibly mean with an over-analysis that anyone suffering from OCD would be proud of in a seat that he probably won’t win and probably won’t fall, anyway, nor will it be required or necessary to fall as if it reached the stage where that seat was in danger of falling the ALP would probably already have over 100 seats to their name and couldn’t care less.

    But, hey, let’s not talk about what the electorate out there really cares about because we need to know if the peas Julian Burnside had for dinner last night were organic or not or some other absolutely irrelevant matter.

    You get the drift? I’m sick of scrolling page after page because I just can’t be bothered reading this drivel. Stick to the useful stuff (sadly, too infrequently of late) that is actually of interest to anyone that may wander across this site and wish to remain, read and possibly consider contributing to.

    Well said!

  10. I have been following Fraser Anning’s new party, Fraser Annings National Conservative Party . So I am predicting, if they run candidates in the Senate in every state, this party will win at least 2% of the vote nationally, maybe more.

    Also I am on Gab (some would call Nazi Twitter) following all these, what you call alt-right types, Fraser Anning has really electrified this whole scene. While they a small minority, there are plenty of people who want to return to the White Australia Policy, initiate a second stolen generation, removal Aboriginals from remote communities and resettle them in bigger towns.

  11. Enjoyed some night tennis at Badgingarra ( a dot on map in WA’s Midwest) last night. If only the friendly people there had known what fate McCormack was tipping for their social activities.

    Joke is this region is home to some big wind farms, with plans announced a week or so ago for WA’s biggest collection of turbines just down the road at Dandaragan.

    The Tories have no idea how silly their scares are. $100 lamb roast anyone?

  12. It is good to see that, when it comes to patriarchal institutions, Burnside has finally found some #metoo moral fibre and quit.

    Ah conflating historic men only clubs with sexual assault, classy and insightful. Well it tells us a lot about you. Have a great day.

  13. Tristo….Anning would have to run candidates and staff booths all over the electorate to register even 2%. It would be very surprising if they get to 1%. They will evaporate like a puddle in the breeze.

  14. Briefly

    Indeed … tho it was pleasantly balmy last night.
    And as a guest of some locals thoroughly enjoyable.
    Tennis, barbecue, beer on ice …
    Nobody mentioned politics.

  15. As I’ve opined many a time, the Liberal Party membership is even more loony than it’s elected reps. They are simply fringe dwellers. Today’s Curtin preselection shows you that the Libs aren’t going to get a clue after they get a hammering. The loons are going to double down and get even crazier. Moderate voices are either going to flee or be pushed out. The idea that these nutjobs are even capable of doing a Labor in terms of recognising why they were rejected and reforming themselves is almost as delusional as they are.

    I don’t know if a socially mature independent of sufficient profile will stand in Curtin, but if there’s one around now is the time to have a crack.

  16. Confessions …that’s right. But membership of an associated club doesn’t create reciprocal membership of as such. It creates income from travellers that belong to associated bodies.

  17. briefly
    says:
    I wonder how many members with First Nations heritage belong to the Savages. How many Indian, African and Chinese-heritage members do they have?
    The Savages are a colonial relic – elitist, anti-worker, sexist and most likely presumptively racist.
    _______________________________________________
    The Shanghai Savage Club, clearly part of a white supremacist network according to Briefly

  18. Ive been doorknocking in Warringah this weekend. About a 60% response rate in terms of people opening their doors and talking to us. Less than 5% of those said they would vote Abbott. Many Liberal voters said they couldnt bring themselves to vote for Abbott this time.

  19. WeWantPaul @ #2559 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 6:04 pm

    All the abuse leveled at Burnside goes a long way to explaining why we have such rubbish politicians, you’d have to be a moron to want to represent us, we suck.

    Sorry, the problem is just the opposite. People like Burnside do not represent “us”. They are elites, who completely fail to understand just how far removed from “us” they really are … until they get their noses rubbed in it, as Burnside has.

    Then, boy do they howl!

  20. nath says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 7:01 pm
    Billy Hughes was a member of the Savage Club while ALP Prime Minister.

    That well-known Republican, pacifist and feminist.

  21. Just walked down to my local park and discovered the aforementioned Greens have taken over one end of it including the barbecues and toilets as the base for their door knocking! Even brought their own marquee!

    Seem to be currently engaging in Adair bit of drinking and righteous indignation.

  22. Badgingarra. Wildflower central during spring in the coastal heathlands around there. Close to Mt Lesure National park which is MAJOR world bio-diveristy hotspot. Grand spot if you are into orchids.

    First windfarm up there (emu flats??) was the one that went in to offset the power used by the first desal plant in Perth.

    Place well worth a visit in spring….or for windsurfing.

  23. Five years of killing Bill by the Greens was AOK.

    It was remorseless. Any pretext was fine. Any old drivel was dredged up again and again and again. The Greens spent more time killing Bill than having a go at any Government person. Much, much more time.

    Day, after day, after day some Greens would have a go at Kill Bill.

    The very first major interview Burnside does with the ABC, the day after he was made candidate, he names just ONE politician for a personal spray.
    Was it Dutton the scourge of refugees? No.
    Was it Morrison, the scourge of the poor? No.
    Was it Taylor the bane of Global Warming action? No.

    No. No. No. Burnside goes straight for Shorten’s jugular. Shorten had never had a bad word to say for Burnside.

    Well, guys, what goes round comes round. How are you enjoying the sort of Burnside pizzling you have dished out to Shorten for five full years now? Not so nice?

    Ten minutes of having a bit of fun at Burnside’s klutzarama and the Greens’s patience and sense of humour evaporates totally. Their poor old scroll fingers!

    The Greens suddenly don’t want to do ‘character assassination’ any more.

    Now, they are ‘bored’ with going the man.

    They want to talk about policy!

    As long as that policy talk is not about killing the cotton industry, killing Olympic Dam or killing the ADF.

    As long as that policy discussion is Labor Bad.

    I don’t have much more to say about Burnside but I am grateful for the light relief he has provided. It is the best thing the Greens have done for ages.

  24. Julia Banks has just pissed all over the Liberal party on Ch10 The Project,virtually naming Abbott,Dutton and Morrison as the bullies in the party during Libspill.

  25. Might as well throw my HOR ballot in the bin. At least I can vote Labor in the senate without joe Bullock on the ticket.

  26. briefly says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 7:11 pm
    nath says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 7:01 pm
    Billy Hughes was a member of the Savage Club while ALP Prime Minister.

    That well-known Republican, pacifist and feminist.
    ———————————————————————————-
    Let’s not forget his strong support for brown skin people coming to Australia.

  27. briefly
    says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 7:15 pm
    nath, it’s sweet of you to defend the patriarchals. Are you a member? Or inspired by their suffering?
    _______________________________

    The club may be a ‘colonial relic’. Well so are lots of places. It may be ‘elitist’ so are a lot of organizations. I doubt it is anti-worker, any more so than any bohemian club made up of literary and legal types. No doubt you hanker to send them to a re-education camp.

    I have attended one dinner there. A friend is a member. There are increasing numbers of Chinese people attending as guests and as members. To call them ‘presumptively racist’ is a disgrace.

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