There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:
• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.
• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.
• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.
The joys if never having to be responsible for implementation.
As promised, this is the full list of Newspoll Guesses. I’ll keep recording. It is not yet too late to post a guess. And as there were no new Essential or Ipsos guesses I will leave them for another time.
PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-10
PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 73
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 a r
52 / 48 Al Pal
53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
56 / 44 bilko
52 / 48 BK
54 / 46 booleanbach
54 / 46 briefly
53 / 47 Burgey
54 / 46 Catprog
53 / 47 chinda63
53 / 47 Confessions
55 / 45 d-money
98 / 2 Dan Gulberry
55 / 45 Davidwh
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
56 / 44 EB
54 / 46 Fozzie Logic
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
55 / 45 Fulvio Sammut
57 / 43 Gecko
55 / 45 Goll
52 / 48 grimace
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 Henry
53 / 47 imacca
53 / 47 It’s Time
54 / 46 j341983
57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
54 / 46 klasib
53 / 47 Late Riser
54 / 46 Lynchpin
55 / 45 martini henry
54 / 46 Matt31
53 / 47 Mavis Davis
53 / 47 max
54 / 46 Michael A
54 / 46 Mundo
55 / 45 OH
54 / 46 Onebobsworth *cheat
54 / 46 Outside Left
53 / 47 pica
53 / 47 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
53 / 47 Prolo
55 / 45 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question
53 / 47 Red13
56 / 44 Rex Douglas
54 / 46 rhwombat
55 / 45 Scott
53 / 47 SilentMajority
56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
51 / 49 Smokey
50 / 50 Sprocket_
53 / 47 Socrates
55 / 45 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar
53 / 47 steve davis
53 / 47 Steve777
53 / 47 sustainable future
54 / 46 The real Dave
53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
55 / 45 Tom
53 / 47 Tricot
52 / 48 Tristo
54 / 46 Upnorth
53 / 47 Victoria
53 / 47 Wayne
54 / 46 Whisper
54 / 46 Yabba
53 / 47 Zoidlord
ajm:
That’s quite a shopping list of promises. ‘Guarantee everyone a home’? He should be thankful he will never be in a position to be held accountable for that one.
Bishop will be incandescent with rage….. …can’t wait
Will an Indy-Lib run in Curtin?
So a Federal Green, if elected, is going to change State policies!
I don’t see the logic. Human rights don’t mean that everybody is allowed to join everything, however unsuitable.
dave:
Yes. And don’t forget Howard offered his two bobs worth by backing Hammond.
Morrison for once, to his credit, managed to keep his motormouth shut and didn’t give a view.
As he explained he joined it 40 years ago and tried to change it for the better. All the abuse leveled at Burnside goes a long way to explaining why we have such rubbish politicians, you’d have to be a moron to want to represent us, we suck.
The problem with the Men Only clubs come not from their exclusion of women from the clubs, but from the networks, deal making, decisions and, to put it bluntly, patriarchal power. If it is a Men’s Club which practices nautical net-making while naked under the light of the dawning sun, fair enough. But if it is a group of powerful blokes making political and financial networks, then the exclusion of women, people from different cultures and classes is a big problem.
Is the Savage club closer to the former or the latter?
…Newspollwatch.
Curtin Liberal preselectors signal their contempt for Curtin voters ME behaviour! #curtin
Who is that Chandler-Mather snake oil salesperson?
@ratsak: I find it fracking ridiculous for the Greens to seriously propose nationalising electricity generators. All that would do would be to socialise stranded assets – mainly 19th century pieces of kit, whilst denying us the benefits of private investments in new technologies, which are themselves rapidly changing.
By all means socialise (or preserve in public ownership of it has been sold) the electricity grid, poles and wires, but let’s focus on the main game – making the national energy market work via regulatory reform.
I know, that sounds boring and doesn’t permit a heck of a lot of “look at me” virtue signalling like a nationalisation campaign does. No wonder the Greens have no truck with it. Sounds too much like hard work. The stuff of government. Sacrebleu!
bug1, Got it. Got it. 🙂
Newspoll: 54:46
(i go with my gut, but head says 53-47)
(sorry for dups, had trouble with plugin, couldnt see my post)
Ms Hammond, who has had some sort of occupational relationship with the Western Australia Notre Dame institution, has publicly opined her opposition to:
1. abortion
2. contraception
3. sex before marriage.
I trust that every single voter who has ever used a franga, popped a birth control pill or gone the pre-nup bonk, votes against this antedeluvian ratbag.
We’ll never know that as he said emphatically that you don’t discuss things like women being able to join your club in public.
“As he explained he joined it 40 years ago and tried to change it for the better. All the abuse leveled at Burnside goes a long way to explaining why we have such rubbish politicians, you’d have to be a moron to want to represent us, we suck.”
Right on comrade. Burnside’s 40 year campaign to bring the Savage club into the 20th century is just like Nelson Mandela’s Long Walk to Freedom.
The problems caused by patriarchy are well understood. Male-only clubs are self-evidently patriarchal organisations. Anyone that recognises and wants to repair the harms done by patriarchy would not only refuse to join a male-only club they would be calling for their exemption from anti-discrimination laws to be repealed.
The Savages are clearly not an egalitarian outfit. Their privileges should be abolished.
If they were a club that only permitted white-skinned members, they would not be permitted to exist. I wonder how many members with First Nations heritage belong to the Savages. How many Indian, African and Chinese-heritage members do they have?
The Savages are a colonial relic – elitist, anti-worker, sexist and most likely presumptively racist.
When the Libs are forced to preselect a woman, the best kind of woman is one whose views would make your garden variety old white male 50s throwback look enlightened.
Just read on twitter (not sure if accurate) but JBish’s nominee got just 1 vote.
Even the SmearStralian journos are flummoxed about Curtain.. this from Richard Ferguson..
How is anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, anti-contraception Celia Hammond going to go down in the very cosmopolitan “Golden Triangle” of Perth? Curtin was 74% Yes.
jenauthor
But if what Boerwar says is true…
In preselecting Hammond, the Curtin Liberals have chosen very poorly indeed. The die-hards really do take their constituents for granted. I hope an Indy comes forward to run.
Don’t know if this is just a tease, but he does work for Newscorp
Rowe’s latest is an absolute scream! (Sorry – can’t copy to post) someone … anyone?
Yep, as I said she is the rightwing reactionary candidate cut in the mould of today’s Liberal party.
Julie Bishop tweets..
Congratulations to Celia Hammond on her pre-selection for Liberal Party in the magnificent seat of #Curtin. I wish her all the very best in upcoming election. There is no greater calling than representing your community, your state and your country in the national Parliament
There you go Jewels, just one more shot in the ribs on your way out the door. Happy holidays: Love, Matthias.
I miss James J’s early Newspoll calls.
I’m assuming that comment is the best you can do, with practice and thought you might be able to contribute something relevant and related to what others actually post. Keep trying honey.
Mumble’s reaction to the Curtin preselection.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/berejiklian-government-poised-to-lose-nationals-seats-yougov-poll/news-story/90e97cca9a5e139f98853bab861eaf06
Berejiklian government poised to lose Nationals seats: YouGov poll
Anna Caldwell, NSW Political Editor, The Daily Telegraph
31 minutes ago
EXCLUSIVE: The Berejiklian government is poised to lose a string of Nationals seats, as new polling confirms support for the government has plummeted in two key electorates.
An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph shows the Nationals are on the cusp of losing Barwon and Lismore — key battleground seats that could contribute to putting the government in minority.
Today’s poll has the Nationals on track to lose the north coast seat of Lismore and trailing the Labor Party in a tight two-party preferred result of 49/51.
And in Barwon, the Nationals are in a fierce contest with the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party, who are just trailing the government 51/49 — a narrow win for the incumbents but a result too close for comfort.
The poll is based on a sample of 502 voters in Barwon and 588 voters in Lismore.
We may get an Independent led government. That would be interesting. Only joshing.
briefly
says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 6:15 pm
I wonder how many members with First Nations heritage belong to the Savages. How many Indian, African and Chinese-heritage members do they have?
The Savages are a colonial relic – elitist, anti-worker, sexist and most likely presumptively racist.
_____________________________________________
I’m surprised you didn’t declare them to be ‘presumptively anti-Semitic’.
Project .
TV TONIGHT shoukd be worth watching …re Julia Banks
Davidwh:
Isn’t that essentially what we’ve got at the moment? 😀
52 Lab : 48 Coal
That is exactly what he said, so you may not believe him, and you may even be right, but I’m going to go out on a limb and believe him, he has credibility. Not that he is perfect, but he has a tonne of credibility.
As I said it is pretty obvious why there are a lot of Abbott types in politics and very few Burnside types and frankly we deserve the Abbott types.
Two is not a very long string.
Probably should be in NSW election thread, but there is a YouGov seat poll just out, on 2 National seats
The poll is based on a sample of 502 voters in Barwon and 588 voters in Lismore.
Barwon
Shooter & Fishers 51
Nationals 49
In this result, the Nationals primary vote has slumped by more than 9 percentage points since the last election, from 49.1 per cent under Mr Humphries to just 40 per cent for his successor Andrew Schier.
Primary support is also down for Labor and the Greens, while Shooters candidate Roy Butler is attracting 30 per cent of the primary vote.
Lismore
ALP 51
Nationals 49
In Lismore, the Nationals primary vote has slumped 7.5 per cent since the 2015 election, to 35 per cent making candidate Austin Curtin’s chances of retaining the seat poor.
However the party still leads on primary votes, trailed by the Greens on 28 per cent and Labor on 27 per cent.
https://outline.com/qHfmh8
It seems that the Melbourne Savage Club has relationships with reciprocal clubs in Asia, Africa, Europe and South America.
https://www.melbournesavageclub.com/cms/reciprocal-clubs/
Looks like everyone is hanging out for a poll, and have pounced on the travails of the BanjoPlayers
The Lismore 3 way will be interesting, given OPV in NSW.
Andrew_Earlwood,
You are completely on point on the electricity system.
LR,
put me down for 54 to Labor for everything.