BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. As promised, this is the full list of Newspoll Guesses. I’ll keep recording. It is not yet too late to post a guess. And as there were no new Essential or Ipsos guesses I will leave them for another time.

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-10

    PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 73

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 a r
    52 / 48 Al Pal
    53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
    56 / 44 bilko
    52 / 48 BK
    54 / 46 booleanbach
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 Burgey
    54 / 46 Catprog
    53 / 47 chinda63
    53 / 47 Confessions
    55 / 45 d-money
    98 / 2 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 Davidwh
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    56 / 44 EB
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    55 / 45 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    52 / 48 grimace
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 Henry
    53 / 47 imacca
    53 / 47 It’s Time
    54 / 46 j341983
    57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    54 / 46 Lynchpin
    55 / 45 martini henry
    54 / 46 Matt31
    53 / 47 Mavis Davis
    53 / 47 max
    54 / 46 Michael A
    54 / 46 Mundo
    55 / 45 OH
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth *cheat
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    53 / 47 pica
    53 / 47 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    53 / 47 Prolo
    55 / 45 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13
    56 / 44 Rex Douglas
    54 / 46 rhwombat
    55 / 45 Scott
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    51 / 49 Smokey
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 Socrates
    55 / 45 Sohar
    53 / 47 sonar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    53 / 47 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
    55 / 45 Tom
    53 / 47 Tricot
    52 / 48 Tristo
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    53 / 47 Wayne
    54 / 46 Whisper
    54 / 46 Yabba
    53 / 47 Zoidlord

  2. ajm:

    That’s quite a shopping list of promises. ‘Guarantee everyone a home’? He should be thankful he will never be in a position to be held accountable for that one.

  3. dave:

    Yes. And don’t forget Howard offered his two bobs worth by backing Hammond.

    Morrison for once, to his credit, managed to keep his motormouth shut and didn’t give a view.

  4. Personally I don’t care whether people join these kinds of establishments or not, but with Burnside it is hypocritical to say the least.

    As he explained he joined it 40 years ago and tried to change it for the better. All the abuse leveled at Burnside goes a long way to explaining why we have such rubbish politicians, you’d have to be a moron to want to represent us, we suck.

  5. The problem with the Men Only clubs come not from their exclusion of women from the clubs, but from the networks, deal making, decisions and, to put it bluntly, patriarchal power. If it is a Men’s Club which practices nautical net-making while naked under the light of the dawning sun, fair enough. But if it is a group of powerful blokes making political and financial networks, then the exclusion of women, people from different cultures and classes is a big problem.

    Is the Savage club closer to the former or the latter?

  6. @ratsak: I find it fracking ridiculous for the Greens to seriously propose nationalising electricity generators. All that would do would be to socialise stranded assets – mainly 19th century pieces of kit, whilst denying us the benefits of private investments in new technologies, which are themselves rapidly changing.

    By all means socialise (or preserve in public ownership of it has been sold) the electricity grid, poles and wires, but let’s focus on the main game – making the national energy market work via regulatory reform.

    I know, that sounds boring and doesn’t permit a heck of a lot of “look at me” virtue signalling like a nationalisation campaign does. No wonder the Greens have no truck with it. Sounds too much like hard work. The stuff of government. Sacrebleu!

  7. Ms Hammond, who has had some sort of occupational relationship with the Western Australia Notre Dame institution, has publicly opined her opposition to:

    1. abortion
    2. contraception
    3. sex before marriage.

    I trust that every single voter who has ever used a franga, popped a birth control pill or gone the pre-nup bonk, votes against this antedeluvian ratbag.

  8. As he explained he joined it 40 years ago and tried to change it for the better.

    We’ll never know that as he said emphatically that you don’t discuss things like women being able to join your club in public.

  9. “As he explained he joined it 40 years ago and tried to change it for the better. All the abuse leveled at Burnside goes a long way to explaining why we have such rubbish politicians, you’d have to be a moron to want to represent us, we suck.”

    Right on comrade. Burnside’s 40 year campaign to bring the Savage club into the 20th century is just like Nelson Mandela’s Long Walk to Freedom.

  10. The problems caused by patriarchy are well understood. Male-only clubs are self-evidently patriarchal organisations. Anyone that recognises and wants to repair the harms done by patriarchy would not only refuse to join a male-only club they would be calling for their exemption from anti-discrimination laws to be repealed.

    The Savages are clearly not an egalitarian outfit. Their privileges should be abolished.

    If they were a club that only permitted white-skinned members, they would not be permitted to exist. I wonder how many members with First Nations heritage belong to the Savages. How many Indian, African and Chinese-heritage members do they have?

    The Savages are a colonial relic – elitist, anti-worker, sexist and most likely presumptively racist.

  11. When the Libs are forced to preselect a woman, the best kind of woman is one whose views would make your garden variety old white male 50s throwback look enlightened.

  12. Even the SmearStralian journos are flummoxed about Curtain.. this from Richard Ferguson..

    How is anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, anti-contraception Celia Hammond going to go down in the very cosmopolitan “Golden Triangle” of Perth? Curtin was 74% Yes.

  13. jenauthor

    Andrew Burrell

    Verified account

    @AndrewBurrell7
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    Here are the votes: Celia Hammond 51, Anna Dartnell 28, Andres Timmermanis 1, Karen Caddy 1, Erin Watson-Lynn 1.

    But if what Boerwar says is true…

    Ms Hammond, who has had some sort of occupational relationship with the Western Australia Notre Dame institution, has publicly opined her opposition to:

    1. abortion
    2. contraception
    3. sex before marriage.

  14. In preselecting Hammond, the Curtin Liberals have chosen very poorly indeed. The die-hards really do take their constituents for granted. I hope an Indy comes forward to run.

  15. Ms Hammond, who has had some sort of occupational relationship with the Western Australia Notre Dame institution, has publicly opined her opposition to:

    1. abortion
    2. contraception
    3. sex before marriage.

    Yep, as I said she is the rightwing reactionary candidate cut in the mould of today’s Liberal party.

  16. Julie Bishop tweets..

    Congratulations to Celia Hammond on her pre-selection for Liberal Party in the magnificent seat of #Curtin. I wish her all the very best in upcoming election. There is no greater calling than representing your community, your state and your country in the national Parliament

  17. Right on comrade. Burnside’s 40 year campaign to bring the Savage club into the 20th century is just like Nelson Mandela’s Long Walk to Freedom.

    I’m assuming that comment is the best you can do, with practice and thought you might be able to contribute something relevant and related to what others actually post. Keep trying honey.

  18. Mumble’s reaction to the Curtin preselection.

    Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    11m11 minutes ago
    Independents, start your engines ….

  19. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/berejiklian-government-poised-to-lose-nationals-seats-yougov-poll/news-story/90e97cca9a5e139f98853bab861eaf06

    Berejiklian government poised to lose Nationals seats: YouGov poll
    Anna Caldwell, NSW Political Editor, The Daily Telegraph
    31 minutes ago

    EXCLUSIVE: The Berejiklian government is poised to lose a string of Nationals seats, as new polling confirms support for the government has plummeted in two key electorates.

    An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for The Daily Telegraph shows the Nationals are on the cusp of losing Barwon and Lismore — key battleground seats that could contribute to putting the government in minority.

    Today’s poll has the Nationals on track to lose the north coast seat of Lismore and trailing the Labor Party in a tight two-party preferred result of 49/51.

    And in Barwon, the Nationals are in a fierce contest with the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party, who are just trailing the government 51/49 — a narrow win for the incumbents but a result too close for comfort.

    The poll is based on a sample of 502 voters in Barwon and 588 voters in Lismore.

  20. briefly
    says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 6:15 pm
    I wonder how many members with First Nations heritage belong to the Savages. How many Indian, African and Chinese-heritage members do they have?
    The Savages are a colonial relic – elitist, anti-worker, sexist and most likely presumptively racist.
    _____________________________________________
    I’m surprised you didn’t declare them to be ‘presumptively anti-Semitic’.

  21. We’ll never know that

    That is exactly what he said, so you may not believe him, and you may even be right, but I’m going to go out on a limb and believe him, he has credibility. Not that he is perfect, but he has a tonne of credibility.

    As I said it is pretty obvious why there are a lot of Abbott types in politics and very few Burnside types and frankly we deserve the Abbott types.

  22. Two is not a very long string.

    EXCLUSIVE: The Berejiklian government is poised to lose a string of Nationals seats, as new polling confirms support for the government has plummeted in two key electorates.

  23. Probably should be in NSW election thread, but there is a YouGov seat poll just out, on 2 National seats

    The poll is based on a sample of 502 voters in Barwon and 588 voters in Lismore.

    Barwon
    Shooter & Fishers 51
    Nationals 49

    In this result, the Nationals primary vote has slumped by more than 9 percentage points since the last election, from 49.1 per cent under Mr Humphries to just 40 per cent for his successor Andrew Schier.

    Primary support is also down for Labor and the Greens, while Shooters candidate Roy Butler is attracting 30 per cent of the primary vote.

    Lismore
    ALP 51
    Nationals 49

    In Lismore, the Nationals primary vote has slumped 7.5 per cent since the 2015 election, to 35 per cent making candidate Austin Curtin’s chances of retaining the seat poor.

    However the party still leads on primary votes, trailed by the Greens on 28 per cent and Labor on 27 per cent.

    https://outline.com/qHfmh8

  24. Looks like everyone is hanging out for a poll, and have pounced on the travails of the BanjoPlayers

    The Lismore 3 way will be interesting, given OPV in NSW.

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