BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Ms Reynolds’ problem is that she know’s the Coal-ition’s policy on coal. It’s to protect coal profits while throwing a couple of billion at token schemes to pretend to address climate change. Re Coal fired power stations, they want to build as many as they could anywhere they could.

    However, she can’t say that out loud.

  2. I tried posting this on the Liberal Party’s Facebook hagiography of Gladys – who they claimed was NSW’s first female Premier chosen on merit, but it was blocked. Funny that.

  3. You might have thought Michael McCormack would have headed to the bunker for number crunching lessons after that Walid Ali Interview.

    Not this guy. He is starting to sound like Pauline Hanson suggesting unemployment can be solved by sending them to QLD and the NT to bash cane coats to death- clubs supplied from her own cave men warrior Mr Roberts or Bernadi and Lleyonhelm campaigning against calling easter eggs “Happy Eggs” or “Holiday Eggs” only to find there was no such intent.

    I’m starting to think Cat might be right about an April fools day challenge from the Barnacle.

  4. Re Andrew @ 5:21
    Ms Berijeklian was chosen by her party room, just like Kristena Keneally. That statement in the Hard Right Reactionary (a.k.a “Liberal”) Facebook page is a lie. In fact so is the name of the party.

  5. It was interesting watching that Shorten interview. Basically he was ok until his final comment “I’m sure she’s right”.

  6. ‘Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 5:30 pm

    At the London Savage Club members are to refer to each other as ‘Brother Savage’.’

    Any Sister Savages in London?

  7. Boerwar:

    Absolutely not. Sister Savages are verboten apart from a few dinners throughout the year where Brother Savages may invite women to the club.

    Several times a year Members may invite ladies to share both the dinner and the entertainment – sometimes as performers. On these occasions guests always include widows of former Savages.

  8. @ Barney

    Agree Pho is for dinner. Like Tom Yum Goong, hard going for breakfast.

    A good Banh Mi on the other hand is perfect for Breakfast, along with delicious Vietnamese Coffee.

  9. If Kerry Stokes gets his way Anna Dartnell will win the Curtin preselection – The West has been attacking the other candidates all week ……

  10. Nah, they’re riddled with Labor trojans…

    Don’t sell yourself short Rex. A mere inconvenience like that would surely not be a challenge for one of your talents.

  11. Barney in Cà Mau
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 5:32 pm
    nath you are pathetic!
    Shorten is the pathetic one. Arnie didn’t know who he was. Shorten got miffed and told him ‘im going to be the next prime minister of australia’. How pathetic is that. The next problem is that Arnie probably doesn’t know what the fuck is the prime minister of Australia. 🙂

  12. if what the NSW bludgers are saying is true and transport NSW is stuffed, I find it hard to believe that with all the experience available around the world, they could really make such a dog’s breakfast of it.

  13. lizzie,

    You are assuming the point of all the expenditure is to fix the transport system.

    The point of the expenditure is to direct as much public money to big business mates in the shortest possible time.

    Improvements to transport infrastructure are neither here nor there.

  14. Upnorth,

    Banh mi varies as you move around, with some being awful.

    You need to watch carefully and be firm with your hand signals, they can try and slip in some weird stuff.

    I had my banh mi woman well trained in Go Dau. 🙂

  15. ratsak @ #2529 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:43 pm


    You are assuming the point of all the expenditure is to fix the transport system.

    The point of the expenditure is to direct as much public money to big business mates in the shortest possible time.

    Improvements to transport infrastructure are neither here nor there.

    If one were cynically minded, improving transport infrastructure would be very much not desired, since the money would then stop. But I’m not that cynical. Not caring is sufficient explanation for the same outcome.

  16. Sky News AustraliaVerified account@SkyNewsAust
    1m1 minute ago
    #BREAKING: Celia Hammond has been selected to run for Julie Bishop’s blue ribbon seat of Curtin at the next election.

    No surprises there.

  17. Simon² Katich® @ #2373 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 2:59 pm

    Thanks peeps.
    The lag and the old IOS pretty much ends the 4s as a smartphone.keyboard and magnifying or text size can’t save it. Can’t even get the Primary school app to work on this IOS

    Get a Samsung Note 9. Then you can voice type, use the stylus pen, and probably a lot of things I do not know about. It’s the best present my kids ever got me. It is bloody amazing.

  18. Sky News AustraliaVerified account@SkyNewsAust
    1m1 minute ago
    #BREAKING: Celia Hammond has been selected to run for Julie Bishop’s blue ribbon seat of Curtin at the next election.

    No surprises there.

    I haven’t been following – who does she belong to?

  19. The Melbourne Savage club is a “Gentlemen’s Club”. I entered that term into Google and it turns out there are lots of them about, some near me. They can’t all be men-only establishments because many advise the presence of ‘beautiful and elegant ladies’.

    Be that as it may, apparently traditional men-only clubs are legal, they don’t violate anti discrimination laws. Nor, I assume, does the Country Women’s Association. A men-only club doesn’t appeal to me, but I couldn’t give a stuff if Julian Burnside is a member of one. In any case if he can prematurely end Josh Frydenberg’s Parliamentary career, that would be fantastic.


    Curtin preselection candidate and former Notre Dame University vice-chancellor Celia Hammond had been at war with students over LGBT rainbow stickers and equality groups on campus.

    Professor Hammond a favourite to win Liberal preselection for Julie Bishop’s seat, described rainbow stickers as “divisive” in an email sent to all Notre Dame staff in 2017.

    Professor Hammond was also accused in 2013 of banning students from forming official university clubs that supported equal marriage rights.

    There is concern within the Liberal Party that if Professor Hammond is preselected for Curtin it could prompt an independent to campaign in the seat…

    Sheesh, they’ve unearthed another one…

  21. Surprised Hammond got it (Kerry won’t be pleased) but quite pleased. Plenty of scope for an Indy to tackle her regressive social views.

  22. I have to report that I missed the Griffith Greens when they came door knocking this afternoon. However, I’m honoured to share with you what they will achieve on the very tiny chance of winning an inner city Brisbane electorate.

    Boerwar might like to get his calculator out.

    I know guilt by association is not a thing, but the candidates hyphenated surname (Chandler-Mather) seems to draw on two “old-money” Queensland conservative names.

  23. Steve777:

    Burnside is running on his record on human rights, so being a member of a club that actively excludes 50% of the population from membership is a very poor look, hence why he is now going to tear up his membership.

    Personally I don’t care whether people join these kinds of establishments or not, but with Burnside it is hypocritical to say the least.

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