BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Mavis Davis @ #2425 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    Rex, Emma said she wasn’t going to contest the next election. The State Executive acted of her advice. That she subsequently changed her mind is neither here nor there.

    She should run as an Indy … with me as campaign advisor

    I’d advise her to campaign against the wasteful expenditure on submarines and instead help the state Govt fund the refurbishment of local Govt schools.

    #EmmaHasAHeart

  2. Davidwh says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 4:47 pm

    Is that dump Tony Abbott and keep Paris Hilton?

    It would help with their women numbers! 🙂

  3. @ Rex Douglas….Emma Husar will not win Lindsay. She has as much of a chance of winning this seat as the Greens……which is SFA.
    The ALP will hold the seat…..easily.

  4. “I reckon Rex as COS and campaign director would quickly become the voice of the voteless.”

    Shoosh! I was setting a cunning trap.

    Who wants to contribute to a Bludger campaign drive to get “Rex to the ‘riff!” Stat!

  5. alfred venison says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 4:09 pm
    i don’t see what the problem is with clubs that cater exclusively for women & clubs that cater exclusively for men. so what if there are clubs for upper class women board members, upper class women medicos, upper class women barristers, academics, etc. & there are clubs for upper class male board members, upper class male medicos, upper class male barristers, academics, etc. big deal.

    Agree. Membership of many institutions is not necessarily reprehensible. Because a person is a union member, for example, I don’t put them in the same category of John Sukka preaching violence. Nuance is your friend in these things.

    IF being a member of an exclusive club is unacceptable we would all be in trouble for one thing or another.

  6. So, disagreeing with your Finance Minister and then changing your mind is the same as agreeing with your Leader.

    Wasnt Shorten rather busy at the time – with two portfolios? From reports he was also a serious minister who was across his portfolios and doing real governing work. Perhaps this explains his reluctance to get involved in the matter and simply, but still slightly embarrassingly, just supporting whatever Gillard said even tho he didnt know what it was.

    Current Coalition Mps have given up on governing and policy and just have ‘Shorten is bad’ left to offer any interview. Reynolds fell over her own feet in her desperation to achieve even that goal.

  7. I do hope an enterprising journalist asks Burnside why (a) he supports turning the ADF into a ‘Light Mobile Force’ and (b) just what strategic objective the Greens LMF* might deliver.

    *LMF = lack of moral fibre.

  8. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 4:49 pm

    Mavis Davis @ #2425 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    Rex, Emma said she wasn’t going to contest the next election. The State Executive acted of her advice. That she subsequently changed her mind is neither here nor there.

    She should run as an Indy … with me as campaign advisor

    I’d advise her to campaign against the wasteful expenditure on submarines and instead help the state Govt fund the refurbishment of local Govt schools.

    #EmmaHasAHeart

    So, it’s not about what she believes, you’d just like to use her as your own vehicle.

    That sounds honest and respectful! 😆

  9. Jayme Diaz was ambushed by being asked ‘What is Tony Abbott’s 6 point plan?’

    Rather than mumble some generalities and say how the punters in Fairfield would be a lot better off, he tried to list the points out – and couldn’t get past point 1.

    The problem with Reynolds is she has training wheels on, should never have been offered up for a Speers Skewering, and should have tweaked Pavlovian style to the words economy and wages to repeat how much better the Liberals are at economic management, rattle off some numbers….

    So why nobody else offered up? Firstly, the competents have fled/fleeing and Scotty/PMO wanted a woman to show that they didn’t have a ‘woman problem’ – Michaela Cash? No. Melissa Price? No. Karen Andrews? She is on Q&A tomorrow. KellyO? In the exit lounge and can’t be trusted. Marise Payne? Too sensible for Scotty.

  10. Barney in Cà Mau @ #2441 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:54 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 4:49 pm

    Mavis Davis @ #2425 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    Rex, Emma said she wasn’t going to contest the next election. The State Executive acted of her advice. That she subsequently changed her mind is neither here nor there.

    She should run as an Indy … with me as campaign advisor

    I’d advise her to campaign against the wasteful expenditure on submarines and instead help the state Govt fund the refurbishment of local Govt schools.

    #EmmaHasAHeart

    So, it’s not about what she believes, you’d just like to use her as your own vehicle.

    That sounds honest and respectful! 😆

    Emma’s a single working mum who relates to the normal everyday person in the Lindsay streets.

    Emma has their interests at heart rather than a major party donors interests.

    #EmmaHasAHeart

  11. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 4:55 pm

    Jayme Diaz was ambushed by being asked ‘What is Tony Abbott’s 6 point plan?’

    That’s why they had to dumb it down to one three word slogan at a time! 🙂

  12. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 4:51 pm
    TPOF @ #2427 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:47 pm

    Rex

    Reminds me of the time Bill Shorten agreed with what FPMJG said even when he didn’t know what she said.

    ______________________________________

    Do you also remember what the issue was?
    I agree with whatever Bill Shorten said it was.

    ___________________________________

    But he didn’t say it was anything. As you would know if you actually cared about policy rather than bagging Bill.

    Whatever the issue was was irrelevant. I don’t remember it and nobody else does.

    The media, as usual, just wanted to do a gotcha of Bill Shorten disagreeing with Julia Gillard. Smartarsery from them. And from those who saw this as a gaffe, rather than a smart response to a bunch of journos who wanted to be players.

  13. Having demonstrated his LMF with regards to the Savage Club, one wonders what Burnside would say to the idea of closing down the Australian cotton industry and Olympic Dam Mine while he is at it.

    Then someone might ask him about how much the Greens UBI is going to cost.

    My bet is that this guy would make Reynolds look well-informed.

  14. Davidwh says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 5:00 pm
    The problem both Shorten and Reynolds were facing was to agree to a position that was dumb to begin with.

    _______________________________

    But what was the issue?

    Edit. I saw you answered it.

  15. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 5:03 pm

    And why not let Scotty speak at the Liberal launch?

    Focus group polling?’

    He would probably start ranting on about how they need the stadiums to park the humungous horde of boat people passing the Heads as he speaks.

  16. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 4:55 pm
    Jayme Diaz was ambushed by being asked ‘What is Tony Abbott’s 6 point plan?’

    Rather than mumble some generalities and say how the punters in Fairfield would be a lot better off, he tried to list the points out – and couldn’t get past point 1.

    The problem with Reynolds is she has training wheels on, should never have been offered up for a Speers Skewering.

    At least Kelly O’Dwyer is well schooled on deflective tropes – it made Reynolds look like an incompetent fool. No skin of Scotty or Joshy boys noses – Reynolds will learn from that experience. The only person that has your back is YOU in politics.

  17. This is off Bill Shorten’s twitter feed.

    I’ve checked Scotty’s, and for some strange reason, there is no tweets since yesterday. Embarrassed?

  18. It was gracious of McCleod to head back to the Greens kitchen so that an old white Liberal-voting, finger pointing, men’s club male could take her position. I hope she is a dab hand at pumpkin scones.

  19. Is there some way we can get Rex a gig running some campaigns? I’d chip in a few coins.

    I reckon Bandt for one could do with some Rex wisdom. Perhaps he can help out with the Green candidate in Macnamara as a 2 for 1 type deal.

    It’s not too late to get in and helps the members for Newtown and Balmain in the state election. Can even help out in Ballina too if he’s up for the commute.

    Then up to South Brissy to help out in Oct 2020.

    It would be a shame if this wonderful resource wasn’t being put to effective use.

  20. Ms Reynolds should simply have asserted that the plebs have never had it so good since before the Gracchi Brothers AND that life was not meant to be easy.

  21. About the Reynolds dumb comment.
    If anyone is talking about “flexibility” in working environment – you can be 100% sure what is meant is “More power to the boss, less money to the workers”

  22. Someone should ask Burnside whether he supports closing down a couple of dozen regional towns by direct application of the Greens’ ideological aversion to terminator technologies.

    And does he have any plans for what to do with all the human wreckage thus generated?

  23. So, does a member of the party have to agree with another member, on an issue which is not party policy or a cabinet decision, before it becomes one?

  24. And Scotty was indeed at GladysB’s launch, to lend his support and his tin ear on women…

    No wonder they didn’t invite him to speak. How humiliating for a PM to be demoted to the line of hand shakers?

  25. ratsak @ #2463 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    Is there some way we can get Rex a gig running some campaigns? I’d chip in a few coins.

    I reckon Bandt for one could do with some Rex wisdom. Perhaps he can help out with the Green candidate in Macnamara as a 2 for 1 type deal.

    It’s not too late to get in and helps the members for Newtown and Balmain in the state election. Can even help out in Ballina too if he’s up for the commute.

    Then up to South Brissy to help out in Oct 2020.

    It would be a shame if this wonderful resource wasn’t being put to effective use.

    No, I’m Emma’s.. !

    She can contact me through my agent named William.

    #RexHasAHeart

  26. ‘phylactella says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 5:11 pm

    About the Reynolds dumb comment.
    If anyone is talking about “flexibility” in working environment – you can be 100% sure what is meant is “More power to the boss, less money to the workers”’

    Flexibility is all about individual choice guiding the ever diminishing trickle.

  27. “Ms Reynolds should simply have asserted that the plebs have never had it so good since before the Gracchi Brothers AND that life was not meant to be easy.”

    I’m pretty sure you’ll find that the plebs didn’t fair too well before, during or immediately after the Gracchi. #gaiusmarius4consul.

  28. Does Burnside support knocking 25% off the gross income of Olympic Dam and thereby forcing it to close?
    What is his plan for the township?
    Send in the Savage Club?

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