BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Boerwar – it isn’t just that Morrison is not a team player … he has never understood any of his jobs. He was incompetent before he entered parliament, and his record since hasn’t improved.

    He is Trump-like in his self confidence … which was confirmed to him when he accidentally became PM … and likely doesn’t listen to others’ counsel (unless it is his god whispering in his mind)

  2. How embarrassing! Shunned by his own mob in his home state.

    Charlotte MortlockVerified account@CMMortlock
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison attends NSW lib launch but not invited up to the podium to speak…. @SkyNewsAust

    :large

  3. Roger M – that is what makes it SO funny!

    These die-hard conservatives in the coalition seem to think Trump is “winning” still.

  4. And this is what I love (/sarcasm) about PB as a reader . I dare not intrude and contribute because look at what happens to those that do dare.

    Days upon days upon days and pages upon pages are spent wasting time on a candidate from a minor party about what every particular word he may have ever uttered or every action he has ever taken could possibly mean with an over-analysis that anyone suffering from OCD would be proud of in a seat that he probably won’t win and probably won’t fall, anyway, nor will it be required or necessary to fall as if it reached the stage where that seat was in danger of falling the ALP would probably already have over 100 seats to their name and couldn’t care less.

    But, hey, let’s not talk about what the electorate out there really cares about because we need to know if the peas Julian Burnside had for dinner last night were organic or not or some other absolutely irrelevant matter.

    You get the drift? I’m sick of scrolling page after page because I just can’t be bothered reading this drivel. Stick to the useful stuff (sadly, too infrequently of late) that is actually of interest to anyone that may wander across this site and wish to remain, read and possibly consider contributing to.

  5. Labor will ensure the Fair Work Commision is focused on the daily / weekly living costs facing workers on the minimum wage in determining annual increases.

    This will most likely involve a basket/ suite of price indexes that directly affect said workers eg rent, basic groceries etc etc that must be considered by the Commission. The consideration of these living cost pressures must be given equal status to the state of the overall economy and “ employers ability to absorb any pay rise”. Workers and employers will be given equal importance.

    ATM there is no legislative requirement for the Commision to do so. It may refer to rising costs but is not required to directly include their impacts in their determination.

    How this is done will be the issue.

  6. Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 4:00 pm

    How embarrassing! Shunned by his own mob in his home state.

    Charlotte MortlockVerified account@CMMortlock
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison attends NSW lib launch but not invited up to the podium to speak…. @SkyNewsAust

    I’m surprised they let him in!

    Was it ever suggested that he would make a speech?

    Meanwhile on the other side of town, Bill Shorten … 😆

  7. Scotty shunned at the Lib launch, whereas at Labor’s launch…

    Michael McGowan@mmcgowan
    4h4 hours ago
    Bill Shorten speaking at the launch of NSW Labor election campaign. Gets in early w a zinger: “I was going to say there’s a festival atmosphere here but the Liberals might try to shut it down”.

    :large

  8. doyley @ #2384 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:04 pm

    Labor will ensure the Fair Work Commision is focused on the daily / weekly living costs facing workers on the minimum wage in determining annual increases.

    This will most likely involve a basket/ suite of price indexes that directly affect said workers eg rent, basic groceries etc etc that must be considered by the Commission. The consideration of these living cost pressures must be given equal status to the state of the overall economy and “ employers ability to absorb any pay rise”. Workers and employers will be given equal importance.

    ATM there is no legislative requirement for the Commision to do so. It may refer to rising costs but is not required to directly include their impacts in their determination.

    How this is done will be the issue.

    A shame they don’t have any love for newstart strugglers.

  9. i don’t see what the problem is with clubs that cater exclusively for women & clubs that cater exclusively for men. so what if there are clubs for upper class women board members, upper class women medicos, upper class women barristers, academics, etc. & there are clubs for upper class male board members, upper class male medicos, upper class male barristers, academics, etc. big deal.
    by the way, some women only clubs in melbourne:-
    http://www.thewomensclub.com.au/
    https://www.bpw.com.au/home-page
    https://lyceumclubmelb.org.au/
    https://www.alexandraclub.com.au/
    would anyone object if a liberal party woman belonged to one of these clubs?
    or would someone only object if a labor party woman belonged to one of these clubs?
    if it goes to the “credibility” (somehow) of burnside, that he belongs to a men only club, does it equally go to the credibility of, for example, penny wong if she’s a member of a women only club? or tanya plibeseck? or julie bishop? or zali steggle? does no one ask them because its none of their fricking business ? or is it just something one doesn’t ask a labor woman, or a liberal woman, or a green woman, or an independent, what club they belong to? -a.v.

  10. ‘fess,
    Howard believes that the latter day Liberal Party is his creation and while he is still around he will keep sticking his oar into it.

  11. “Charlotte MortlockVerified account@CMMortlock
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison attends NSW lib launch but not invited up to the podium to speak…. @SkyNewsAust”

    Shame. He could have regaled a breathless audience with tales from the 2003 and 2007 state campaign trails.

  12. alfred venison @ #2408 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:09 pm

    i don’t see what the problem is with clubs that cater exclusively for women & clubs that cater exclusively for men.

    You might not. Burnside clearly did – but he did nothing about it for 40 years.

    Either there is nothing wrong, and Burnside should have stuck to his guns and said so, or there is something wrong – as he clearly decided – but did nothing about it until he was ‘pinged’ on it.

    You can’t have it both ways.

  13. guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 12:13 pm
    Going on for days after a politician has resigned and admitted it was a mistake to be a member is what political enemies do when tearing down an opponent.

    If you want Frydenberg to lose then save your fire for him and cheer on any candidate that can beat him.

    Thats my approach anyway. I am certainly no fan of the character assassination that goes hand in glove with politics so can we please limit it as much as possible that would be good. Yes I know I too have participated in this and I do try and limit myself so am not being a hypocrite. I just want the focus to be on the LNP.

    _

    **claps**

  14. Speers spears again, this time on the govt’s investment in coal fired power stations.

    Sky News AustraliaVerified account@SkyNewsAust
    2h2 hours ago
    .@lindareynoldswa has struggled to define the govt’s position on investing in coal energy.

    ‘We are meeting our targets and surely that is the issue.’

    DS: It is an important issue, but my question was should the govt invest in coal-fired power.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2VKSbzu

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1104578237789700096

  15. You can’t have it both ways.

    Not relevant but I saw Christine and the Queens the other night. I think she has it more than both ways.

  16. Hey lay off Stunt Robinson. Not being invited to speak at the NSW Campaign Launch is a massive step up for him. He was at least allowed in the state unlike the Victorian election when they made him fuck off to Qld.

  17. Reynolds was shoulder to shoulder with MacDonald and O’Sullivan I. Doing the hatchet job on Justin Gleeson SC in estimates

  18. The Greens, who have spent five full years assassinating Shorten’s character, now reckon that character assassination is bad.

    Really, really, bad.

    And now they want themselves to stop.

  19. You can’t be too harsh on Reynolds being unsure of the principle she was defending. She probably was not certain what the voters would want to hear? How can you know what you stand for if you haven’t seen the results from the focus group?

  20. First thing I’d advise as Emma’s CoS is to campaign as the voice of the voiceless – starting with an increase to newstart.

    #EmmaHasAHeart

  21. [‘Scott Morrison denies snub at NSW Liberals launch.]

    If Trumble was still in office, Berejiklian would’ve fallen over backward to welcome him on the stage at her campaign launch; but the truth is he’s – Fauxmo – electoral poison. Whereas, over at the Labor campaign Shorten delivered a keynote speech. The difference is stark! Roll on March 23 & May 18.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/scott-morrison-denies-snub-at-nsw-liberals-launch-20190310-p51336.html

  22. lizzie @ #2410 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 4:32 pm

    Senator Reynolds is an intelligent woman. We can agree on that. But what on earth has gone wrong? Perhaps she’s not receiving enough support from staffers, not getting the memos? Her gaffe on Cormann suggests at least a lack of concentration.

    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/03/10/14/21/mixed-messages-over-women-in-cabinet.

    Reminds me of the time Bill Shorten agreed with what FPMJG said even when he didn’t know what she said.

  23. Yes the Shorten gaff was very amusing. However in Reynold’s case she seems to be agreeing with Corman immediately after disagreeing with the position.

  24. Crucial supporters of the Nationals have abandoned the party for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers in the NSW marginal seat of Murray in fury over claims of water theft.

    Chris Brooks, the chairman of the Southern Riverina Irrigators group which represents 1800 irrigators in the region, has pulled his lifelong support for the Nationals to back the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate, local farmer Helen Dalton.

    Mr Brooks says many of his members have followed suit ahead of the March 23 state election.

    The Nationals’ Austin Evans holds the seat by 3.2 per cent, having beaten Mrs Dalton at a byelection in October 2012.

    “I have voted Nationals all my life,” Mr Brooks said. “But even lifetime supporters need water to stay rusted on, and they took all our f***ing water.”

    “[Barnaby] Joyce, [David] Littleproud, Niall Blair, they don’t care. They have let [cotton growers] take as much as they want. It’s not legal, it’s not monitored and it is not morally right.”

    Mr Books said anger over the water issue was dominating farmers meetings across the region.

    “I have been going to meetings like this all my life as a grain buyer and I have never seen anything like it,” he said. “People are fizzing with anger. When an incumbent like [Nationals MP] Austin [Evans] turns up they are better off not being there. They get shouted down. It is just embarrassing.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/even-lifetime-supporters-need-water-to-stay-rusted-on-loyal-nationals-abandon-party-20190307-p512fi.html

  25. Reminds me of the time Bill Shorten agreed with what FPMJG said even when he didn’t know what she said.

    So, disagreeing with your Finance Minister and then changing your mind is the same as agreeing with your Leader.

    A lot of wishful thinking, I think. 😆

  26. Rex, Emma said she wasn’t going to contest the next election. The State Executive acted of her advice. That she subsequently changed her mind is neither here nor there.

  27. Rex

    Reminds me of the time Bill Shorten agreed with what FPMJG said even when he didn’t know what she said.

    ______________________________________

    Do you also remember what the issue was?

  28. Mr Denmore

    @MrDenmore
    6h6 hours ago
    More
    Replying to @sspencer_63 @Qantas
    I was in the Hong Kong business lounge while one of the Sky After Dark loons was ranting about foreigners. Really good look @Qantas – when are you going to disassociate yourselves from this frankly fascist network??
    ***
    Stephen Spencer
    ‏ @sspencer_63

    Hey @Qantas I can think of no greater way to damage your brand than to subject all your customers to the offensive rants of Rowan Dean on Sky from every TV in your lounge. British tourists, sitting near me, expressing shock at what they are hearing on their arrival in Aus.

  29. Sorry, I don’t see much wrong with Shorten trusting the leader enough to defer to their judgement on something he hadn’t seen. That’s kind of the reason they are trusted with being the leader in the first place… It wasn’t even something worth disagreeing with.
    A world of difference compared to the Reynolds backflip…
    Rex loves drawing a long bow to try to embarrass Shorten at every opportunity, its almost Lib-like. Hmmmm

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