BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Simon² Katich:

    Consider increasing the font sizes on your phone, I think even the keyboard can be made larger. Also if you have not switched on “haptic” feedback on your phone keyboard, consider doing so. It gives a little vibration depending on the button you have pressed, which is good for that extra little bit of feedback.

  2. poroti @ #2348 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 3:13 pm

    Simon² Katich®

    Failure to pay a living wage is mostly a result of power imbalance. Greed and corruption

    Damned right. Decades of reducing organised Labor’s options has made negotiations more like…………………….
    Labor: We want a pay rise.
    Bosses: Feck Off. (note to selves “Extra $300,000 bonus this year for sacking some more workers and reducing pay and conditions”)
    .

    …back to the measly Award. Or they can walk out the door and not come back and be replaced by some desperate unemployed people.

  3. Well, as a political tragic I’m watching the Victorian parliament Question Time.

    I think that beats KayJay’s most boring comment of the day. 😆

  4. lizzie,

    If your comment is directed at me….

    I didn’t take dwh’s comment as hostile. Why would I? He is always civil and pleasant. .

  5. Barney in Cà Mau says: Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 3:15 pm

    S2K,

    I went the tablet plus old school style super cheap mobile route.

    Works great for me.

    **************************************************

    Barney – I am always impressed how you can maintain such a great and superquick internet connection no matter where you travel to over there ……. while some of us struggle with our static internet connection/speed here in Oz ….

  6. KayJay

    One way and another, I’ve had a frustrating day, mostly trying to fix a powerhead in my fish tank filter. For comfort I’ve been eating chocolate cake with cream. 🙁

  7. I’d suggest Burnside will not be that well-known out in voter land unless the particular voter is up to the mark on Asylum Seeker and similar issues left of centre issues.

    Ask someone out in Penrith, or a similar suburb in any state and many would likely say “Julian who?”

    That said, it only needs to matter in Kooyong and traditionally, it would have been a shit-in for Frydenberg – maybe not so much now, but how much has the electorate shifted? I seem to remember the pundits were giving Batman to the Greens, only to be disappointed.

  8. Simon – tablets & phones can be connected to a USB full keyboard via a OTG is on the go cable – not sure if iPhone calls it the same.

    I’ll go for a larger size phone next time – a phablet maybe 7″.

  9. lizzie

    I once said to my sons that I’d put too much whipped cream on a chocolate cake.

    They told me there is no such concept.

  10. jenauthor

    I seem to remember the pundits were giving Batman to the Greens, only to be disappointed.

    Circumstances changed. When Kearney was preselected I said here at the time, the Greens were not likely to win so I was expecting this outcome.

    Also the internal white-anting of Alex Bhathal by a very few malcontents and the subsequent beat-up by Labor and the MSM sealed her fate.

  11. Hard to believe but several years ago someone rang my secretary and warned that if I didn’t leave a message board they would burn my house down. How they found my work I have no idea but wasn’t taking the chance they knew where I lived. Since then I decided never to get in the middle of personal spats on message boards.

    I feel comfortable here because generally this is a well behaved place and William is a good moderator.

  12. Simon² Katich® says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 2:58 pm
    As for living wage – I disagreed thatglobalisation, automation, offshoring and digitalisation (was that it) are the reason workers in the western world are being forced to work poverty wages.

    Briefly,
    In the past Workers have been underpaid without these factors.
    In the past Workers have been underpaid and with terrible conditions with v similar factors and the pay and conditions rectified without disrupting the economy or progress.

    Failure to pay a living wage is mostly a result of power imbalance. Greed and corruption

    Well said, SK.

    The power imbalance is institutionalised. That is, it is legally entrenched. The rise of organised labour in the 19th century led to a compromise in which an industrial ‘power balance’ was to be created; a legal ‘power balance’. This really rested on enabling workers to freely organise and unionise, and to achieve collective representation. During the latter part of the 20th century the conservatives were able to largely de-unionise the private sector labour market, commencing with the mass sackings and lockout by Peko-Wallsend Ltd at Robe River in the late 1980s.

    The systematic de-unionisation of the labour force has led to the degradation of pay and conditions right across the economy. Somehow this needs to be addressed and reversed. Perhaps there are solutions that do not rely on labour-organising models….but it’s not obvious what these might be.

  13. I usually top my cakes with a one-third combo of whipped cream, whipped egg white and mascarpone. It turns our ‘mousse-like’ and can be flavoured/sweetened however you like. You can pipe if you wanna be fancy (for guests). Plus it lasts a little longer when fridgerated.

    I adapted from tiramisu

  14. On wages, I see it as a distinct lack of respect for their workforce.

    Thinking back to a previous life in warehouse management, productivity and accuracy dived when you lost workers plus the pain of training the new workers.

    The company paid minimum wage and I had to fight to get a bit more for the more experienced ones.

    Dumb false economy in my book.

  15. Thanks peeps.
    The lag and the old IOS pretty much ends the 4s as a smartphone.keyboard and magnifying or text size can’t save it. Can’t even get the Primary school app to work on this IOS

  16. Yep that Reynolds/Speers exchage is almost unbelievable….this lot just keep on finding ways to remind us of their uselessness……

  17. lizzie @ #2358 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 3:20 pm

    KayJay

    One way and another, I’ve had a frustrating day, mostly trying to fix a powerhead in my fish tank filter. For comfort I’ve been eating chocolate cake with cream. 🙁

    A picture in words (how unusual).

    Me clutching my throat and whispering (glazed eyes and bewildered expression) “oh me oh my oh you” bringing to mind that perennial favourite.

    Oh me oh my oh you
    Whatever shall I do?
    Hallelujah,
    The question is peculiar
    I’d give a lot of dough
    If only I could know
    The answer to my question
    Is it yes or is it no?

    Does your chewing gum etc.

    I will substitute largish dish of multiflavour ice cream and retire once again to await the collapse of the universe back into the original point.

    Sorry I can’t help with the fish tank – that’s the type of little job I love.

    Au revoir. 👋 – waving hand sign.

    Cripes – I see that Jenauthor has posted soul destroying (in the absence) of wonderful whipped cream info. Toodles.

  18. ‘Peg

    Also the internal white-anting of Alex Bhathal by a very few malcontents…’
    Whoa, there.
    That would be ‘greens-anting’.

  19. That Reynolds interview reminds me of a similar gaff by Liberal candidate in Western Sydney a couple of elections back. Can’t remember the person but he faded quickly into obscurity.

  20. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 3:36 pm

    Speers has done some good work, IMO.

    He doesn’t often go out after dark! 🙂

  21. Barney
    Yep.
    Very, very bright, knows policy inside out and has a deceptively deadly way of operating on victims who bloviate and blather.
    We see him around a bit. I think his kids go to the same school our kids went to.

    Q. When you travel in Vietnam do you drive, motorcycle, bicycle, or public transport?

  22. Upnorth says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 2:29 pm

    You should stop listening to Tories kevjohnno
    ——————————————

    I do talk to a few Tories Upnorth but my opinion of Tony came from 25 years living & working in Townsville and talking to Labor & union people, including Tony. Handed out plenty of HTV cards there myself.

  23. https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/mar/10/bias-balance-and-the-abc-is-there-anything-for-people-on-the-right

    Admittedly, ABC radio has made attempts to recapture the elusive beast; but not with much enthusiasm or commitment. In the Howard era, Radio National launched Counterpoint, hosted these days by former Howard minister Amanda Vanstone – for one hour a week on a Monday afternoon. And Tom Switzer, like Vanstone a liberal Liberal, hosts Between the Lines for half an hour a week. Of course, these days Vanstone and Switzer fans can download their podcasts and listen any time. Still, it’s a derisory effort.
    WTF???
    They get more airtime than Philip Adams and just about every other discussion forum (until quite recently) was stacked with IPA cadres or ex LNP senators & representatives. The IPA loading has faded somewhat but the others are still there; usually in the ratio of 2:1 or 3:1.
    Very rarely do we get actual ex-ALP senators & reps. Instead we mostly get a number of stand-ins who may or may not represent ‘progressive’ or ‘left’ opinion.

    Is he seriously suggesting we have a Fox/Sky/Rupert session on the ABC?

  24. Shorten reckons he is going to deliver a fair wage, whatever that is supposed to mean, by leaning on the Fair Work Commission.
    How does that work?
    The first thing he would have to do is a complete spill and fill.

    Is a fair wage an increase in the current minimum wage by about 20%? 10%? 5%?

    Someone must know the answer if we are expected to vote for it.

  25. This:

    Dan Conifer @DanConifer

    “Forget night footy.”

    “Forget night cricket.”

    Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack claims night-time sport would end under Labor’s 45 per cent emissions reduction target.

  26. C@t:

    Apparently John Howard has voiced his view on who should be preselected (unsurprisingly he’s backing the Cormann candidate). Why he feels he needs to weigh into a preselection on the other side of the country is anyone’s guess.

    He should be enjoying his retirement, not trying to meddle with a party he no longer leads.

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 3:39 pm
    Confessions @ #2368 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 3:26 pm

    Nothing yet from Curtin that I can see…..
    They must still be discussing SSM with the candidates.

    Or perhaps they’re debating whether introducing decimal currency was a bad idea.

  28. Problem is, Reynolds isn’t stupid and she was amazingly balanced when she headed up a senate committee a short while back.

    Sadly, Morrison threw her in the deep end without the pre-requisite ‘floaties’

  29. This Friday coming – Friday March 15 is a traditional event – *The Ides Of March* – In 44 BC, it became notorious as the date of the assassination of Julius Caesar which made the Ides of March a turning point in Roman history but is also a day in Roman times the Ides of March was mostly notable as a deadline for settling debts.

    Many on the ‘net wonder if Robert Mueller is interested in such things as to settle a few debts in his investigations this Friday ahead ?????

  30. Comment from twitter was that McCormack’s comment was right up there with $100 lamb roasts …

    He IS Nat leader, after all

  31. ‘jenauthor says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 3:50 pm

    Problem is, Reynolds isn’t stupid and she was amazingly balanced when she headed up a senate committee a short while back.

    Sadly, Morrison threw her in the deep end without the pre-requisite ‘floaties’’

    Cormann’s low wage comment was picked up as soon as he said it.
    A good team in Morrison’s Office should have picked it up and immediately provided the relevant talking points to anyone who was going into an interview.
    It has been a notable feature of the past six months that ministers and Morrison frequently contradict each other.
    Morrison has never been a team player.
    And it shows.

  32. Boerwar,

    It’s a massive 135xxx and I’ve got my poncho for when it rains, so all good.

    Plus there’s always a coffee shop nearby that you can pull into. 🙂

  33. C@tmomma @ #2354 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 3:18 pm

    Well, as a political tragic I’m watching the Victorian parliament Question Time.

    I think that beats KayJay’s most boring comment of the day. 😆

    Many pardons young lady. I was just settling to contemplate the inside of my eyelids but paused to have a final check on my 8″ Samsung Tablet.

    I guess you have one-upped me for the moment. One would have to make a comment without links or other references – such as –

    Rained today – 8 maybe 9 drops. 😇

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