BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Boerwar

    “Your questions are, IMO, context free.

    The real question is this:

    Why did Burnside choose of all people, prioritize an attack Shorten during his first extended presser on the ABC?”
    ——–

    I have seen none of his statements. I am not that interested in him per se.

    But that may be a “real question” to you but not to me at all.

    Why does it matter in which order he may criticise his political oponents?

  2. Given all that has happened 54/46 is as good as the coalition could have expected. It’s a reasonable reflection of the rabble this government has become.

  3. Jen
    “Doubt Gladys would want a Newspoll (Fed) a week out from her election day”

    The damage is both ways now. Since ScumMo did not have the ticker to face his judgement day any sooner, now they can damage each other. Antony Green pointed out this morning that if the NSW state result is close the two major parties could be negotiating with a potentially expanded crossbench to form government during the federal election campaign, in which the Libs are very much behind. That or another state loss might occur right before the federal one.

  4. Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-1) ALP 54 (+1)
    Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 7 (+2)
    Preferred PM: Morrison 43 (-1) Shorten 36 (+1)
    Shorten: Approve 36 (+1) Disapprove 51 (-2)
    Morrison: Approve 43 (+1) Disapprove 45 (-3)

  5. The OZ cant even get a fix out of PPM this time. They are being ignored as much as Morrison and that is more satisfactory than the result sometimes.

  6. Yeah, beautiful numbers people, and really the next one will be worse for the Libs and Nats as some of the more ridiculous evidence of a hapless divided defeatist government looking for the door will not have filtered through into this fortnight’s result.
    Sadly for me it I am shallow enough that this result makes me feel a bit better about my fellow Austalians

  7. swamprat

    ‘But that may be a “real question” to you but not to me at all.’

    Um, we are allowed to talk about things which don’t interest you, you know.

  8. Any decline in LNP support is to be celebrated.

    I have always thought Morrison was stupid to delay the election.

    The economy is deteriorating, the coalition is disintegrating. The longer it goes on the worse it will be.

    He should have gone immediately after winning the “precious” to an election before the punters knew him.

  9. The PHON number bouncing around means nothing. The other numbers bouncing around the underlying 53.5/46.5 or so level means nothing. Nothing’s changing. Nothing’s going to change in any significant way. If there is any movement it will be people firming up to send this government to the garbage bin of history.

  10. Kevin Bonham has recalculated..

    Coalition thwacked a full point in my aggregate for that bad #Newspoll. Now 53.7 to ALP (last election prefs, or 53.1 with One Nation adjustment).

  11. “Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 7 (+2)” + ‘someone else’ 9 (-1).

    So ALP 2PP = 0 + 39 + 7.5 + 3 + 0.5 * 9 = 54.

  12. It’s easy to see why Berejiklian didn’t ask Morrison to give a speech at the LNP launch today. Who wants to be associated with such a loser?

  13. ‘swamprat says:
    Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 9:34 pm

    Boerwar

    “Your questions are, IMO, context free.

    The real question is this:

    Why did Burnside choose of all people, prioritize an attack Shorten during his first extended presser on the ABC?”
    ——–

    I have seen none of his statements. I am not that interested in him per se.

    But that may be a “real question” to you but not to me at all.

    Why does it matter in which order he may criticise his political oponents?’

    You wanted to know why the Greens copped a pasting on Burnside.

    The answer is twofold: five years of Kill Bill by the Greens.
    Statistically the Greens attack Labor far more than they criticize the Coalition.
    That is the context you are ignoring.

    The very first national interview on ABC, Burnside criticizes one person by name: Bill Shorten with a bit of Lib Lab same same thrown in for good measure. Remember: Burnside is there for the refugees. Did he give Dutton a pizzling? No. Did he give Morrison a pizzling? No.

    The nanosecond he did that my one thought was right, what goes round comes round.
    THAT is why Burnside has had the rounds of the kitchen sink on Bludger.

    And, boy, did he make it easy!

  14. Take a bow PB median and also all you 54’ers! (Though I’m not sure about Onebobswort.) Full list to follow on a new thread, maybe…

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-10
    Actual: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 77

    Good Guess List
    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    54 / 46 booleanbach
    54 / 46 briefly
    54 / 46 bug1
    54 / 46 Catprog
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    54 / 46 j341983
    54 / 46 klasib
    54 / 46 Lynchpin
    54 / 46 Matt31
    54 / 46 Michael A
    54 / 46 Mundo
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth *cheat
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    54 / 46 poroti
    54 / 46 rhwombat
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    54 / 46 Whisper
    54 / 46 Yabba

  15. Congrats to those who went for 54-46….Looks pretty grim for the for the government but it is not over until the race is run………….still, prefer to be on the side deserves to be in office, not expect to be.

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