There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:
• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.
• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.
• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.
Boerwar
“Your questions are, IMO, context free.
The real question is this:
Why did Burnside choose of all people, prioritize an attack Shorten during his first extended presser on the ABC?”
——–
I have seen none of his statements. I am not that interested in him per se.
But that may be a “real question” to you but not to me at all.
Why does it matter in which order he may criticise his political oponents?
Can Scot & the gang get us to 60-40 before the election?
Stay tuned….
54 /46
A beautiful set of numbers.
Given all that has happened 54/46 is as good as the coalition could have expected. It’s a reasonable reflection of the rabble this government has become.
WTF?
YAY picked it. And No.50 lost.
yup i saw that too @Confessions
Probably protest votes, who would not vote Labor at all.
After all that… and opening Christmas Island, the result?
Worse.
Amateurs.
Jen
“Doubt Gladys would want a Newspoll (Fed) a week out from her election day”
The damage is both ways now. Since ScumMo did not have the ticker to face his judgement day any sooner, now they can damage each other. Antony Green pointed out this morning that if the NSW state result is close the two major parties could be negotiating with a potentially expanded crossbench to form government during the federal election campaign, in which the Libs are very much behind. That or another state loss might occur right before the federal one.
Nothing can save Morrison now.He cannot get traction on fuck all.
54 /46 and Julia Banks tomorrow.
Good start to the week for Morrison given liberal primary cannot be any more than 33.
Come back Malcolm -all is forgiven.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAviator1992/status/1104692605667835904/photo/1
Götterdämmerung awaits the libs
54/46 I picked it 🙂 And the coalition MP retirements will continue.
Nice to be right for a change.
Well done Mundo!
Just imagine what the numbers will get to when the the Joycestoration starts up come April…..
See people. Trust ratsak. These fuckers are toast and have been since Trumble had his tantrum to celebrate winning the last election.
Which is really 55- 45, of course.
Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-1) ALP 54 (+1)
Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 7 (+2)
Preferred PM: Morrison 43 (-1) Shorten 36 (+1)
Shorten: Approve 36 (+1) Disapprove 51 (-2)
Morrison: Approve 43 (+1) Disapprove 45 (-3)
Confessions @ #2803 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 9:35 pm
Conservatives who have abandoned the Coalition but just can’t stomach Labor.
ON going +2 may go some of the way towards explaining the jitters coming out of the Nationals atm
Confessions
At 5% level they were near enough to MoE so numbers may tend to wobble around.
Was it the recession news that got the extra point?
https://mobile.twitter.com/DoNutCentre/status/1104693334222594049/photo/1
Maybe they’ll have a joint April fools meeting with the Nats. 😆
The OZ cant even get a fix out of PPM this time. They are being ignored as much as Morrison and that is more satisfactory than the result sometimes.
Yeah, beautiful numbers people, and really the next one will be worse for the Libs and Nats as some of the more ridiculous evidence of a hapless divided defeatist government looking for the door will not have filtered through into this fortnight’s result.
Sadly for me it I am shallow enough that this result makes me feel a bit better about my fellow Austalians
swamprat
‘But that may be a “real question” to you but not to me at all.’
Um, we are allowed to talk about things which don’t interest you, you know.
Will be interesting to see how The Australian spins this result.
Any decline in LNP support is to be celebrated.
I have always thought Morrison was stupid to delay the election.
The economy is deteriorating, the coalition is disintegrating. The longer it goes on the worse it will be.
He should have gone immediately after winning the “precious” to an election before the punters knew him.
“Which is really 55- 45, of course.”
Yep. Never forget the new Newspoll preference distribution fandango.
doyley @ #2820 Sunday, March 10th, 2019 – 6:40 pm
Please, please let these jitters translate to a Nationals leadership spill when parliament resumes!
Surely the knives are out for ScoMo now? 🙂
Yes doyley, especially the Queensland Nationals.
I think the movement to switch leaders is all Queensland based.
How the hell does Simon Benson spin this!.?
The PHON number bouncing around means nothing. The other numbers bouncing around the underlying 53.5/46.5 or so level means nothing. Nothing’s changing. Nothing’s going to change in any significant way. If there is any movement it will be people firming up to send this government to the garbage bin of history.
Kevin Bonham has recalculated..
Coalition thwacked a full point in my aggregate for that bad #Newspoll. Now 53.7 to ALP (last election prefs, or 53.1 with One Nation adjustment).
Although 43 % of people approving of Scott Morrison does dampen my newfound sense of bonhomie
Who is having a worse day, Morrison or this bloke?
https://www.afl.com.au/video/2019-03-10/horrid-deja-vu-for-ballard
Henry
Benson didnt spin.He just cried.
Yes but what about the marginal seat polling!
“Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (-1) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 7 (+2)” + ‘someone else’ 9 (-1).
So ALP 2PP = 0 + 39 + 7.5 + 3 + 0.5 * 9 = 54.
It’s easy to see why Berejiklian didn’t ask Morrison to give a speech at the LNP launch today. Who wants to be associated with such a loser?
He just cried.
The $350k + cheers him up pretty quickly though.
‘swamprat says:
Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 9:34 pm
Boerwar
“Your questions are, IMO, context free.
The real question is this:
Why did Burnside choose of all people, prioritize an attack Shorten during his first extended presser on the ABC?”
——–
I have seen none of his statements. I am not that interested in him per se.
But that may be a “real question” to you but not to me at all.
Why does it matter in which order he may criticise his political oponents?’
You wanted to know why the Greens copped a pasting on Burnside.
The answer is twofold: five years of Kill Bill by the Greens.
Statistically the Greens attack Labor far more than they criticize the Coalition.
That is the context you are ignoring.
The very first national interview on ABC, Burnside criticizes one person by name: Bill Shorten with a bit of Lib Lab same same thrown in for good measure. Remember: Burnside is there for the refugees. Did he give Dutton a pizzling? No. Did he give Morrison a pizzling? No.
The nanosecond he did that my one thought was right, what goes round comes round.
THAT is why Burnside has had the rounds of the kitchen sink on Bludger.
And, boy, did he make it easy!
#Dadmentum
Take a bow PB median and also all you 54’ers! (Though I’m not sure about Onebobswort.) Full list to follow on a new thread, maybe…
PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-10
Actual: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 77
Good Guess List
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
54 / 46 booleanbach
54 / 46 briefly
54 / 46 bug1
54 / 46 Catprog
54 / 46 EB *permanent
54 / 46 Fozzie Logic
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
54 / 46 j341983
54 / 46 klasib
54 / 46 Lynchpin
54 / 46 Matt31
54 / 46 Michael A
54 / 46 Mundo
54 / 46 Onebobsworth *cheat
54 / 46 Outside Left
54 / 46 poroti
54 / 46 rhwombat
54 / 46 The real Dave
54 / 46 Upnorth
54 / 46 Whisper
54 / 46 Yabba
Congrats to those who went for 54-46….Looks pretty grim for the for the government but it is not over until the race is run………….still, prefer to be on the side deserves to be in office, not expect to be.