BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 27
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  3. Lizzie

    Yes I thought Rudd’s piece was fair and well written too.

    Speaking of not scapegoating people, I am a bit aghast at the complaints emerging already, with the benefit of hindsight, about the management of Townsville’s dam during the recent floods. Yes if the dam had been managed differently fewer buildings might have been flooded. But this flood was in excess of anything that had previously been planned for. The dam operators did not have the benefit of knowing the severity of the flood in advance. Even the weather bureau was surprised by the duration of flood rains. In such cases human judgement can never be perfect. When engineers argue that we need to beef up our infrstructure, or manage it differently, to cope with climate change, this is why.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/08/townsville-flood-queensland-announces-inquiry-as-up-to-300000-cattle-die

    I think the reality is people who have suffered loss want somebody to blame and hopefully compensate them. Sue the nearest coal mine owner, not the dam managers who tried to stop the mine’s consequences but were unable to do so. This flood was beyond what the dam was designed to cope with, and in that circumstance management becomes literally an exercise in damage control.

  4. For those interested in the encryption laws passed with bipartisan support last year, ABC RN Saturday Extra hosted by Geraldine Doouge had a discussion this morning…

    Too late to fix Australia’s encryption laws?

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/too-late-to-fix-australias-encryption-laws/10787412

    Despite granting authorities unprecedented powers to access encrypted communications, Australia’s complex and controversial surveillance legislation was passed late last year, with a promise that the ‘flawed’ act would be reviewed, and tightened, in the new year.

    Now, the Assistance and Access Act 2018 is undergoing review. But will amendments be enough to address the broader implications that the landmark encryption laws could have?

  6. Political donations

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/billionaire-donor-huang-hits-back-saying-residency-cancellation-on-asio-fears-was-grotesquely-unfair-20190208-p50wm1.html

    Billionaire Chinese political donor Huang Xiangmo says the millions of dollars he’s given to both Liberal and Labor was solicited by the major political parties, and he insists the government’s cancellation of his Australian residency was “grotesquely unfair”.
    :::
    In a lengthy online rebuttal, Mr Huang has verged on accusing the Australian government of racism and authoritarianism.
    :::
    Mr Huang, writing on the Chinese community website Yeeyi, dared the Liberal, Labor and National parties to return the donations he’d made to them and said they had actively sought the money.

    “All donations related to myself were made at the request of the receiving political parties and their representatives as opposed to being proactive offerings,” he said.

  7. In summary there is a lot being said about banks

    Banks are public Companies with Boards, executives and employees

    They are listed on the ASX and elsewhere on Global Indices

    Someone with the reputation of Henry as a pristine, forward thinking and articulate provider of advice to government is seen as adding to the reputation of a bank by being appointed as a Director and despite having no knowledge of the culture within the bank including because of who is reporting to the Board

    Within a bank there are politics

    The politics of advancing careers, that advancement being internal and where the saying was that you were advanced one position past your ability then had to be supported

    Employees always have focus on promotion – so they act and engraciate for that purpose, playing golf at the right Club and otherwise not challenging or questioning because to challenge and question labels you and impedes promotion

    So there are a series of inappropriate relationships for the wrong purpose, within the politics within the bank, between clients and banker where clients engraciate and lending approvals are based on name and reputation not on analysis (so the banker being offered covert inducements to approve advances – banking is about lending money after all) and between bankers and accounting and solicitor firms, those firms positioning for consideration when, as an example, when appointments are made (gravy train revenue for those firms and much sought) or external independent reports are sought

    So there are interactions between human beings – all looking after their own interests by generating relationships

    How can a person such as Henry (as an example only), coming to the Board have any knowledge of this cesspool of humanity – many promoted past their ability to function, surviving on engraciations?

    On self interest

    Then come retrenchments – witness NAB but all banks – so support is compromised because responsibility is added to minus support staff

    In sacking 6,000 has NAB (as but one example) lost significant of its client base?

    No, they have not

    Simply there is less human resource to administer (and grow) the same lending book – and the problem is accentuated because the politics within a bank sees people in positions and with responsibilities they are not skilled to perform

    There is no questioning

    Decisions are by name and reputation – and for appearance

    Simply, the Board do not know

    Those reporting to the Board have their own positions to promote and protect – giving answers they think are appropriate and which will enhance their position

    This is the problem at the core – and not only with banking

    The demographic who consider that their importance means the law of the land applies to you – not to them

    We see it with Victoria Police – dictated by statistics and engraciating with media

    People have what they have between their ears for a reason – to question and to develop including culture

    You see the same outcome by the attack on politicians – so encompassing all when politics is about numbers and government so appraisal should be government – not the lazy and politically motivated (no doubt) of labelling all (so vote for us because the other side is no better – despite us in government having delivered the less than satisfactory outcomes we are confronted with including climate change, privatisation and vested interest. We are absolved from analysis because the fault is with politics when the fault is with government

    It is not banking

    It is society

    Including media acting with vested interest

  8. Confessions @ #41 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 5:48 am

    Dan G:

    If you’re around, some further developments on how Bezos’ texts and pics came to the National Enquirier.

    A hint where this scandal is headed appeared last night when a Post reporter revealed on MSNBC that Gavin de Becker, the security guru to the stars whom Bezos hired to look into AMI, “told us that he does not believe that Jeff Bezos’s phone was hacked, he thinks it’s possible that a government entity might have gotten hold of his text messages.”

    https://observer.com/2019/02/jeff-bezos-national-enquirer-spy-scandal/

    Yes, I’m around. When this story first broke I posted a question here as to how the NE acquired those photos. I’ve been following it fairly closely since. There is certainly a lot more to it to be revealed in the coming day and weeks.

    Last night Vic posted something about the brother of Bezo’s mistress (a Trump supporter) being involved.

    I can quite easily see this ending up as a telemovie on Amazon’s streaming service. I nearly wrote Netflix, but for obvious reasons, Amazon would have first dibs on a story about its founder.

    Oh yeah, and I saw that New York Post cover you posted with the “Bezos Exposes Pecker” headline. That one made me LOL.

  9. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-campaign-targets-marginal-liberals-who-brought-down-turnbull-20190208-p50wm9.html

    Labor has fired the first shot in a new campaign that targets Liberal MPs who signed a petition that helped bring down Malcolm Turnbull, urging voters to turn against those who backed last year’s leadership spill.

    The Labor campaign is using direct mail to tens of thousands of households to tell voters their Liberal MP created chaos by signing the papers to hold the leadership ballot.
    :::
    Those who are vulnerable to the campaign include Jason Wood in La Trobe, a Melbourne seat the Liberals hold by a margin of just 3.2 per cent, and Steve Irons in Swan, held by 3.6 per cent according to a pendulum prepared by ABC election analyst Antony Green.

    Others include Luke Howarth in the outer-Brisbane seat of Petrie, held by 1.7 per cent, Ross Vasta in the south Brisbane seat of Bonner, held by 3.4 per cent, and Michael Sukkar in the Melbourne seat of Deakin, held by 6.4 per cent but seen by Labor as a potential target.

  11. Last night Vic posted something about the brother of Bezo’s mistress (a Trump supporter) being involved.

    That was me! I reckon that’s the more plausible answer. Schindler mentions that de Becker didn’t say which country’s govt, so he rakes over the possibility the Russians, Chinese, Israelis even the Saudis having hacked Bezos’ phone. That sounds a bit too far-fetched to me.

  13. Confessions

    I said they would have it, not that they ,NSA, leaked it. Could be an employee out to make a stack of dough from the newspaper.

    That bit from Schindler is a real LOLathon .Yes they always follow the rules . He knows damn well they don’t and have been caught out breaking the law a number of times. Particularly as it relates to the rules he mentioned, they broke that on a massive scale.A couple of reminders of how trustworthy the secret squirrels that are so cheered on as ‘good guys’ these days.

    Intelligence chief James Clapper, tries to explain false Senate testimony by saying he ‘simply didn’t think’ of NSA efforts to collect phone data
    ……..“simply didn’t think” of the National Security Agency’s efforts to collect the phone records of millions of Americans when he testified in March

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/02/james-clapper-senate-erroneous

    CIA director John Brennan lied to you and to the Senate. Fire him

    Private apologies are not enough for a defender of torture, the architect of America’s drone program and the most talented liar in Washington. The nation’s top spy needs to go

    Plus: CIA admits to spying on Senate staffers

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/31/cia-director-john-brennan-lied-senate

  14. Bob Brown…his Stop Adani Convoy and grassroots activism:

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/02/09/the-stop-adani-convoy/15496308007421

    Now is not the time to give in to despair. Now is the time to take action.
    :::
    The decision-making process on the Adani mine is no less murky or corruptible than that for the Murray-Darling. Adani needs approval for water management and its bogus plan to protect the rare and beautiful black-throated finch.
    :::
    The Stop Adani Convoy will travel the length of Australia, holding public meetings and rallies en route to the Galilee Basin, west of Mackay. We will be there in solidarity with the traditional owners of the land who oppose the mine. Having visited the mine region, we plan to move on to Canberra in May to question whether Australia really wants to back pro-Adani candidates in the federal election.

    Millions of Australians are deeply concerned about global warming but have limited means for demonstrating that concern. We plan to unite Australians who feel our country is in self-inflicted and unnecessary jeopardy – especially vulnerable to global heating, while at the same time jostling Indonesia into second place as the world’s biggest exporter of coal.
    :::
    Here we are in an age of popular greed-driven stupidity. Money rules. The value of life, let alone happiness, on Earth does not count in the marketplace of the richest per capita country in the world.

    This must change and only we, the people, can change it. That challenges us with personal discomfort.

    Faced with the immense wealth and power of the mining industry, it may seem an impossible task. But I have seen, firsthand, how grassroots campaigning can shift public and political opinion in Australia.

  15. Confessions

    What about the ‘Ex’ ? She comes across the phone,discovered the trove. Mad as hell or what ? Take a copy and……..

  16. If it happens, I will make a judgement when I know the details of what is being proposed.

    But that’s boring. And in this instance, unnecessary.

    We know the details of Phelps’s proposal. Do you have any problems with it? I mean, aside from that it’s still too weak? Do you agree with any of the arguments the Coalition has made against it?

    Anything the government puts up will be strictly weaker than what Phelps has proposed. You can make a reasonable judgement on that basis.

  17. If David Pecker is charged in Bezos blackmail plot it’s very bad news for Donald Trump — here’s why

    On Friday, CNN contributor Gloria Borger warned that more bad news could be knocking on President Donald Trump’s front door in light of a National Enquirer attempt to blackmail Jeff Bezos.

    Borger told CNN’s Brooke Baldwin that the National Enquirer’s past deals with Trump will all become “discoverable” if prosecutors find that they violated a previous non-prosecution deal.

    “If they are charged criminally everything becomes discoverable, including their relationship with Donald Trump, it will all be opened up,” she said.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/if-david-pecker-is-charged-in-bezos-extortion-plot-its-very-bad-news-for-donald-trump-heres-why/

  18. In case anyone needed reminding that Everything Trump Touches Dies. Pecker could well go down too.

    I suspect David Pecker will rue the day that his friend Donald Trump became president — if he does not already. And he is not alone. Paul Manafort had a flourishing business as an international influence-peddler before he became Trump’s campaign chairman. He now faces a long stretch in prison after having been convicted of felony financial charges. Trump’s friend Roger Stone has now been indicted for the first time after a long career as a political dirty trickster. Michael Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser, has gone from well-respected general to felon. Michael Cohen had a cushy career as Trump’s personal lawyer before his client became president. Now Cohen, too, is a felon. Numerous other Trump associates and family members are facing, at a minimum, hefty legal bills and, at worst, serious legal exposure.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/08/jeff-bezos-stands-his-ground/?utm_term=.f2f66bb4b44a

  19. Stone-faced Matt Whitaker humiliated by Rep. Nadler in closing comments — and threatened with subpoena

    Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) used his position as the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee chairman to blast acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker at the close of a highly contentious hearing on Friday.

    “Before we adjourn, I want to note for the record that, Mr. Whitaker, that you owe us responses on a number of issues raised here today,” Nadler told the stone-faced Whitaker. “The responses that we intend to secure, including but not limited to the times and dates you were briefed on the special counsel’s investigation, your communications with the president after you received those briefings, the basis for your statement that the special counsel’s investigation is reaching its conclusion, and whether you told the special counsel not to take any specific investigative or prosecutorial steps.”

    “I would also note that your testimony was at best inconsistent on the topic of your communications with the White House prior to your tenure at the department,” he continued. “It is not credible that you both interviewed for a job handling the president’s response to the special counsel’s investigation and never conveyed your opinions about that investigation to the White House.”

    “We require answers to these questions and I ask the department to work with the committee to provide them,” he added. “As part of that work, I fully intend to call you back for an interview under subpoena if necessary and I expect more fulsome answers at that time, without objection, for the witness or additional materials.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/watch-stone-faced-matt-whitaker-humiliated-rep-nadler-closing-comments-threatened-subpoena/

  21. Pegasus @ #31 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 9:24 am

    Bob Brown…his Stop Adani Convoy and grassroots activism:

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/02/09/the-stop-adani-convoy/15496308007421

    Now is not the time to give in to despair. Now is the time to take action.
    :::
    The decision-making process on the Adani mine is no less murky or corruptible than that for the Murray-Darling. Adani needs approval for water management and its bogus plan to protect the rare and beautiful black-throated finch.
    :::
    The Stop Adani Convoy will travel the length of Australia, holding public meetings and rallies en route to the Galilee Basin, west of Mackay. We will be there in solidarity with the traditional owners of the land who oppose the mine. Having visited the mine region, we plan to move on to Canberra in May to question whether Australia really wants to back pro-Adani candidates in the federal election.

    Millions of Australians are deeply concerned about global warming but have limited means for demonstrating that concern. We plan to unite Australians who feel our country is in self-inflicted and unnecessary jeopardy – especially vulnerable to global heating, while at the same time jostling Indonesia into second place as the world’s biggest exporter of coal.
    :::
    Here we are in an age of popular greed-driven stupidity. Money rules. The value of life, let alone happiness, on Earth does not count in the marketplace of the richest per capita country in the world.

    This must change and only we, the people, can change it. That challenges us with personal discomfort.

    Faced with the immense wealth and power of the mining industry, it may seem an impossible task. But I have seen, firsthand, how grassroots campaigning can shift public and political opinion in Australia.

    I’d urge people to support GetUp if they wish to join the protest.

  22. You can make a reasonable judgement on that basis.

    Indeed. Around here, there rarely seems to be a problem for some to jump to conclusions and make judgements on far less information.

    It’s just about a daily occurrence, really.

  24. Poll Bludger cricket has started earlier than usual to make up time lost because of bad light yesterday evening.
    Rex opens the bowling with a couple of wayward bouncers. Follows up with an innocuous underarm delivery. The next an attempted googly that was lucky not to go for four byes and the last two were put over the fence at fine leg where Peg was arguing with spectators about them not wanting her autograph. The other usual suspects remain at silly point and silly mid off hoping for something likely to be bowled on the on side.
    Have a nice day all

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 8:34 am
    Rex Douglas is the fly on the wall, doncha know? He sees all, he hears all, he knows all!

    —————-
    Re has much more staying power than a fly on a wall. Rex is the mark the fly leaves behind on the wall.

  28. Trump Wanted A War With Jeff Bezos And Now It May Bring Him Down

    The National Enquirer attack on Jeff Bezos is unraveling what looks like another failed Trump operation to strike back at one of his “enemies.”

    The former senior editor of the Enquirer claims that David Pecker pursued the Bezos story as a way of making up with Donald Trump. The president has been trying to hurt Bezos for years because his newspaper The Washington Post broken several bombshell stories while reporting on the administration. Trump wants Bezos to sell The Post to a new owner who will be friendly to him. Trump tried the same tactics to try to pressure CNN into a sale to Rupert Murdoch.

    Lawyer : Laurence Tribe @tribelaw

    Are Donald Trump and the murderous Saudi Prince bin Salman co-conspirators with David Pecker and AMI in a failed criminal plot to blackmail and extort Jeff Bezos as owner of the Washington Post? Asking for a friend in the Southern District of New York

    It might not be Mueller that brings Trump down, but his blackmailing of Jeff Bezos could reach a level of criminality that could be the end for Trump.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/02/08/trump-wanted-a-war-with-jeff-bezos-and-now-it-will-bring-him-down.html

  29. Is this ‘dangerous flammable cladding’ being used on domestic housing? Whats its name?
    ____
    It only is dangerous if the cladding is up for quite a few stories of a building.

  30. The relationship is not the problem here.

    Jim Pembroke
    ‏@Jim_Pembroke
    10h10 hours ago

    AFP asked to investigate Economics Committee chair Tim Wilson
    Suspected of giving private electoral roll information
    To his cousin Geoff Wilson
    To promote Wilson Asset Management products

  32. Peter Stanton @ #76 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 5:39 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 8:34 am
    Rex Douglas is the fly on the wall, doncha know? He sees all, he hears all, he knows all!

    —————-
    Re has much more staying power than a fly on a wall. Rex is the mark the fly leaves behind on the wall.

    Maybe he’s the burn mark in Shorten’s kitchen?

  34. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    16h16 hours ago

    Whenever the word “public” was uttered at the #FrankingCreditInquiry, there were discernible hisses and boos, rising louder if someone mentioned “public schools” or “public hospitals”. There’s definitely a class divide going on here.

  36. The Townsville flood has been as extraordinary event. The rain started on January 27 and seems to have finished on February 8. In those 13 days, 1,422 mm of rain fell, just under 56 inches, compared to Townsville’s annual average rainfall of 1,128 mm (44 inches).

  40. Bob Brown? Wasn’t he the one who, given a chance to make an election all about climate change, decided to make it about Tasmanian forests, because that suited his parochial interests?

  44. Democrats used Whitaker hearing to serve notice to Trump that he can expect two more years of hellish investigations

    The House Judiciary Committee grilling of acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker put the Donald Trump administration on notice that the new Democratic House of Representatives will be conducting aggressive oversight of the administration.

    “After two years of being left alone by Republicans, Trumpworld is staring down the barrel at two grueling years of no-win situations before House committees,” Axios explained.

    Axios concluded that “acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker put on a performance today that’s likely to leave plenty of top Trump officials even less excited about the prospect of their day on Capitol Hill.”

    https://www.axios.com/matthew-whitaker-trumpworld-house-judiciary-hearing-43d15104-4752-4b0b-abd3-9ff758fa6c7e.html

  45. GG, ‘Everyone seems to spend a lot of time fretting about something that is unlikely to happen.’

    I wonder when to start fretting. As you jump from a 10 storey window as the people killed in Grenfell is probably a little too late.

  47. GG

    As usual I am in a calm and amiable mood, always thankful for the joy to be found in the life I lead.

    The sound of rain on our steel roof Wonderful!

  48. Rex D
    Could you please explain to me how rejecting the ETS Labor wanted to bring in was based on “evidence based policy”
    Both voters and commentators remember that the Greens, the party of climate change, rejected an ETS because they felt it was not “ambitious enough”.

    As it transpired, Labor enacted a weaker scheme in the subsequent parliament which was then disbanded by Tony Abbott’s government in 2014. Had the Greens not shunned that first opportunity, Australia may have hoped for an enduring ETS scheme with millions of tons of emissions saved.

    Then, when they supported Labor’s minority government, they failed in the public’s mind to secure distinctive policy achievements.

    Under attack from the conservative Murdoch press for pursuing a “Greens-Left agenda”, Labor actively moved to distance itself from the Greens, further weakening their political impact.

    Ultimately, having failed to deliver on climate change in the previous parliament, this demonstrated an inability to move beyond a narrow agenda of climate change and refugees and a failure to effectively address either of them.

    The departure of Brown as leader in 2012 did not help their cause; his replacement, Christine Milne found his shoes difficult to fill and Sarah Hanson Young predicted that putting her back at the helm would see the dismantling of the Australian Greens.

    Witness the thousands who have cancelled their membership in NSW over the course of 2018 and in Darebin Alex Bhatal has resigned because of a bun fight in Victoria.

    What about Dr Phelps beating the Greens on typically GREEN issues .. refugees, climate change etc.

    Get back to a genuine social democratic disposition, stop trying to beat Labor instead of bringing down a far worse option {the Coalition}, focus on climate change and refugees and leave the rest to Labor to clean up. Otherwise your credibility as a genuine minor party will turn into a whining micro party like the Democrats before they went belly up.

    Have a nice day

  49. Democrats used Whitaker hearing to serve notice to Trump that he can expect two more years of hellish investigations

    Do we have to be tortured for two more years?

  50. GG, my beef is the politicians didn’t start fretting when the Grenfell fire happened and banned the cladding straight away.

    They are now only thinking about banning it now ‘in principle’.

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