BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 27
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  5. Had a sleep in this morning. Binge watched The truth about Harry Equbert Affair on Stan. Went to the land of nod at around 4 am. Lol!

    Great post Observer re the banks!

    Lizzie

    Do I really trust the AFP to conduct a thorough investigation into Tim Wilson. I’m not going to hold my breath.
    Past experience gives me no confidence at all.

    Thanks fess for linking John Schindler.
    My feeling when Bezos released statement on blackmail, was that he had a very clear idea as to what was going on.
    He is one of richest men in world and Trump has been goading him for ages due to his ownership of Washington post.
    Fun and games

  6. No surprises how Kavanaugh and Gorsuch voted in recent Supreme Court decisions.

    Late-night rulings that touched on abortion, the death penalty and religious rights provided new insight into the alliances on the reconstituted Supreme Court and showed that even when justices try to avoid controversy, controversy finds them.

    The emergency actions announced late Thursday showed Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. siding with the court’s liberals — for now — in blocking a restrictive Louisiana abortion law and keeping the status quo in place.

    The ruling provided the best evidence so far about the leanings of justices chosen by President Trump on the issue of abortion — Justices Neil M. Gorsuch and Brett M. Kavanaugh would have allowed the law to go into effect.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/abortion-death-penalty-religion-late-night-rulings-show-new-alliances-at-supreme-court/2019/02/08/681cc252-2bb9-11e9-b011-d8500644dc98_story.html?utm_term=.91ea580179e4

  7. PeeBee @ #95 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 9:59 am

    GG, ‘Everyone seems to spend a lot of time fretting about something that is unlikely to happen.’

    I wonder when to start fretting. As you jump from a 10 storey window as the people killed in Grenfell is probably a little too late.

    PeeBee @ #100 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 10:00 am

    GG, my beef is the politicians didn’t start fretting when the Grenfell,fire happened and banned the cladding straight away.

    They are now only thinking about banning it now ‘in principle’.

    Seriously, if you posting anonymously on a blog is the mostest action you will ever take on your”beef’ then your job is done.

  9. Potential corruption risk corrupting democracy

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/09/turnbull-was-warned-about-lobbyists-holding-executive-roles-in-liberal-party

    Malcolm Turnbull received direct warnings about paid lobbyists who were simultaneously occupying powerful roles in the Liberal party hierarchy, internal documents have revealed.

    Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals have all allowed lobbyists – who are paid to push the interests of big business – to simultaneously hold executive roles. Party executives wield significant influence, helping to determine policy, raise funds and organise campaigns and preselections.

  11. There might be some sense to Labor going with the government on offshore medical assessments… primarily that any government bill agreed to means the government owns it.

  12. Vic:

    Have a read of Max Boot’s Washington Post article I posted. Pecker is very likely ruing ever soldering himself to Trump, just like all those others whose lucrative operations have come crashing down after being tied to Trump.

    #ETTD

  14. lizzie @ #99 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 5:59 am

    Democrats used Whitaker hearing to serve notice to Trump that he can expect two more years of hellish investigations

    Do we have to be tortured for two more years?

    Probably, bbbut you know I can feel something big is about happen, not like the last big thing that didn’t happen, or the time before that, but this time it’s going to be big … biggly big … huge! 😆

  19. Goll says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 10:08 am
    EB
    Thanks for that Saturday morning effort. It went well with my coffee!

    LOL. I need one now. I get cranky when the zealots on any side of the floor just won’t see what a mess they’re leaders make of things sometimes.

  20. “Species recovery plans, but no funding”

    It was a similar situation faced by CSIRO researchers Nic Bax and Tim Lynch who are working to save the critically endangered red handfish off southern Tasmania.

    They applied for $2 million, but received $12,500, prompting an unsuccessful fundraising effort.

    Dr Lynch said support needed to be ongoing to ensure the future of these species.

    “The CSIRO and the University of Tasmania started working on them back in the midto early-1990s, and they were becoming extinct,” he said.

    “There has been work on and off through the intervening period to try to get them to recover. It takes a long time.

    “That is not just for handfish but also for things like shy albatross, Tasmanian devils or orange-bellied parrots.

    “All of these things have this generational process, so you need to think about succession planning, mentoring and documentation for the next round of people who will need to work on these particular animals.”

    Like other species, a recovery plan exists for the red handfish, but a lack of funding means it has not been put into action.

    https://www.examiner.com.au/story/5892848/tales-of-despair-at-faunal-extinction-hearings-in-tasmania/?cs=95

  22. EB @ #98 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 9:59 am

    Rex D
    Could you please explain to me how rejecting the ETS Labor wanted to bring in was based on “evidence based policy”
    Both voters and commentators remember that the Greens, the party of climate change, rejected an ETS because they felt it was not “ambitious enough”.

    As it transpired, Labor enacted a weaker scheme in the subsequent parliament which was then disbanded by Tony Abbott’s government in 2014. Had the Greens not shunned that first opportunity, Australia have hoped for an enduring ETS scheme with millions of tons of emissions saved.
    Then, when they supported Labor’s minority government, they failed in the public’s mind to secure distinctive policy achievements. Under attack from the conservative Murdoch press for pursuing a “Greens-Left agenda”, Labor actively moved to distance itself from the Greens, further weakening their political impact.
    Ultimately, having failed to deliver on climate change in the previous parliament, this demonstrated an inability to move beyond a narrow agenda of climate change and refugees and a failure to effectively address either of them.

    The departure of Brown as leader in 2012 did not help their cause; his replacement, Christine Milne found his shoes difficult to fill and Sarah Hanson Young predicted that putting her back at the helm would see the dismantling of the Australian Greens.

    Witness the thousands who have cancelled their membership in NSW over the course of 2018 and in Darebin Alex Bhatal has resigned because of a bun fight in Victoria.

    What about Dr Phelps beating the Greens on typically GREEN issues .. refugees, climate change etc. Get back to a genuine social democratic disposition, stop trying to beat Labor instead of bringing down a far worse option {the Coalition}, focus on climate change and refugees and leave the rest to Labor to clean up. Otherwise your credibility as a genuine minor party will turn into a whining micro party like the Democrats before they went belly up.

    Have a nice day

    Milne, together with Windsor and Oakeshott, had the integrity and evidence-based information to move Labor to legislate the nations most powerful CEP ever produced.

    Rudd showed no integrity in undermining the minority Govt effectively destructing it and chaperoning Abbott into power to further destruct the nation and its fabric.

    Your desperate deflection to the Greens’ current administration issues is noted.

    Dr Phelps is joining the Greens on the issues you mention and that should be celebrated by any dccent-minded person.

  27. Rex.
    Come on you can do better than that surely –

    ” current administration issues ” – code for a bloody mess Di Natalie has no clue how to fix. Get Larissa Waters back on deck ASAP, at least she has a brain that isn’t always in De Nile

  28. I see there is a headline in the Grauniad for a Katharine Murphy proclamation that the Liberals will fight back against Labor in the marginals, but there is no comments link (the only part I click on). Damned if I’m going to click on one of her trashy articles.

    She can forget the marginals for a start, its the ‘safe’ Liberal and Nat seats that Katharine and the party need worry about.

  29. This was interesting.

    Senior Greens have admitted to me that their complaints process, as one that preferences consensus, can be unruly and poor at discerning vexatiousness. Also, as a voluntary organisation, its governance systems lack the expertise of professional organisations. “The other thing that makes this possible is a set of procedures that is pretty naive,” one former senior member told me. “It expects people to behave well. Greens rely on a naive view that individual behaviours match the policies or values of the party.

    TSP: Alex Bhathal and discord in the Greens

  30. lizzie @ #123 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 10:21 am

    Peg

    I was waiting for you to find that one. Responses to community protests are not always bad, but reporters love to label them.

    Agree. I’m not well across the issue. But, this seems to have the same hallmarks of the LNG situation where all our local supply was being exported because prices are better elsewhere. The solution proposed seems to increase capacity so locals can access the produce at a reasonable price. Seems like a win/win and tells you that negotiated settlements can be done.

  31. Urban Wronski
    ‏@UrbanWronski
    2m2 minutes ago

    “With the last four children booked to leave for the US, every asylum seeker child will now be off Nauru.”
    Nope (x3). The children are not asylum seekers – they have refugee status and have never been “illegal”, as Shifty ScoMo insists. Richard Ackland

  32. BiGD “What’s being done to pensions?”

    Superannuation pensions are in an extremely privileged position. Superannuation is in receipt of generous tax concessions during accumulation, including rorts like “Transition to Retirement”. The income portion of a superannuation pension is tax exempt, unlike income from personal exertion or other investment. Then, largely because their income is artificially reduced because pensions are tax free, they get refunds of tax they didn’t pay.

    That girl may or may not know all that and probably cares less, since none of this will ever affect her or even her now middle-aged parents. However, she and her contemporaries vote, or will soon. Their political and demographic influence will grow. One day they’ll be in charge. They’ll see the mess that climate change is creating and they are not going to be very sympathetic to the generation that helped created it, certainly not to the extent of featherbedding the wealthier among them.

  33. The lesson for both Democrats and Republicans is clear and goes well beyond this issue: There will be no partisan legislation through the end of Trump’s current term. A week from now, Pelosi most likely will be able to point to a Democratic victory on the single most important issue for Trump and his base. If he isn’t getting the wall, he’s not getting anything else on his wish list that requires legislative approval.

    The Senate might still rubber-stamp judicial and executive branch nominations. Trump can continue to bear-hug dictators and fight with allies. He is, however, a lame duck at this point, lacking public support and legislative influence. He will have little to show for his last two years, if he makes it that far.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/08/trump-walls-are-closing/?utm_term=.d89780c1c941

  34. EB @ #127 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 10:26 am

    Rex.
    Come on you can do better than that surely –

    ” current administration issues ” – code for a bloody mess Di Natalie has no clue how to fix. Get Larissa Waters back on deck ASAP, at least she has a brain that isn’t always in De Nile

    I’m glad you’ve abandoned your attacks on Milnes integrity.

    Re current Greens leadership, I think Waters has the ability cut through with the Greens’ messaging.

  36. lizzie says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 10:28 am
    This was interesting.

    Senior Greens have admitted to me that their complaints process, as one that preferences consensus, can be unruly and poor at discerning vexatiousness. Also, as a voluntary organisation, its governance systems lack the expertise of professional organisations. “The other thing that makes this possible is a set of procedures that is pretty naive,” one former senior member told me. “It expects people to behave well. Greens rely on a naive view that individual behaviours match the policies or values of the party.

    TSP: Alex Bhathal and discord in the Greens

    That’s one of the many reasons why Andrew Wilkie gave up on the Greens and went Independent in Tassie. He gets my vote every time he stands.

    Wilkie subsequently resigned from the Greens party in 2008, criticising them for a lack of professionalism. Hobart Mercury columnist Greg Barns knows Mr Wilkie well and endorsed him before the election.

  37. Ackland in the Saturday Paper:
    Actually, a kind reader has referred us to the Yiddish word “schmo”. It means a “jerk” or a “foolish, boring or stupid person”, as in Joe Schmo.

    It’s a pretty good word and may come in handy one day.

    SchMo.

  39. EB @ #136 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 10:36 am

    lizzie says:
    Saturday, February 9, 2019 at 10:28 am
    This was interesting.

    Senior Greens have admitted to me that their complaints process, as one that preferences consensus, can be unruly and poor at discerning vexatiousness. Also, as a voluntary organisation, its governance systems lack the expertise of professional organisations. “The other thing that makes this possible is a set of procedures that is pretty naive,” one former senior member told me. “It expects people to behave well. Greens rely on a naive view that individual behaviours match the policies or values of the party.

    TSP: Alex Bhathal and discord in the Greens

    That’s one of the many reasons why Andrew Bartlett gave up on the Greens and went Independent in Tassie. He gets my vote every time he stands.

    Andrew Bartlett is from Queensland. He replaced larissa waters after her S44 difficulties and then retired to allow Waters back. Last time I looked, she’s a Queensland senator!

  40. Dr Stuart Edser
    ‏

    @StuartEdser
    10m10 minutes ago
    More
    I see His Serene Sagacity Paul Kelly is trying to spook the horses. Woe be to Labor if they back the Phelps bill. Destruction be upon you. You will lose the election. This from the man who derogated the child sex abuse RC as “a depressing example of populist politics# #auspol

  41. Attacking Bob Browns integrity re fighting for the environment ..?

    This whole holier than thou entitled arrogant ‘above reproach’ is one of the things that really get the greens into trouble as they make really bad after really bad political calls. Maybe some of them are out of a good place, but a bad political call, like that Labor would easily win the next election so they could afford to opposed the CPRS and then do something much better (opps they didn’t realise that ganging up with Tony would destroy popular support for any action) is still a really bad political call.

  42. Outside Tassie, Labor did best from gambling donations:

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/02/06/gambling-donations/?wkndr=NjhjNEEzU2krY2U4Y29vdjFGdXBkdz09

    Activist Stephen Mayne: Australia needs a royal commission on the pokies – an industry worth 24 billion dollars a year:

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/02/08/gambling-royal-commission/?wkndr=NjhjNEEzU2krY2U4Y29vdjFGdXBkdz09

    The gambling industry is notorious for forum shopping to get favourable licensing or planning deals, so the anti-gambling movement doesn’t care whether it’s the feds or one of the eight state or territory governments who fire the starter’s gun.
    :::
    As an example of gambling industry forum shopping, rather than Crown Resorts dealing with City of Melbourne to get approval for its proposed $1.75 billion skyscraper in Melbourne, James Packer went straight to Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, who ordered his planning minister to approve the deal.

    With the planning scheme amendment lapsing from inaction on March 2, Crown has asked for an extension as The Age reported yesterday.

    I have been reliably informed that Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews attended at least two private meetings with James Packer at Crown before approval to build the largest building in the southern hemisphere was granted.

    The 2017-18 donations figures revealed last Friday also disclose that Crown donated $35,000 to the Victorian ALP in 2017-18. How much will they donate if approval is granted?

    These are the sorts of issues which should be examined in a royal commission into Australia’s gambling industry, particularly after the revelation that the industry donated at least $3 million to political parties in 2017-18, which was a record.

  44. Sohar @ #128 Saturday, February 9th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    I see there is a headline in the Grauniad for a Katharine Murphy proclamation that the Liberals will fight back against Labor in the marginals, but there is no comments link (the only part I click on). Damned if I’m going to click on one of her trashy articles.

    She can forget the marginals for a start, its the ‘safe’ Liberal and Nat seats that Katharine and the party need worry about.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/feb/08/stand-by-for-liberal-fightback-as-labor-steals-march-in-marginals
    https://outline.com/wYBeCg

    You piqued my imagination.

    Real load of old cobblers in the article – I really, really like the following:-

    A couple of final observations about the imperative of building fighting machines. The imperative does help to rapid set one of the more genuinely interesting dynamics of the looming federal contest.

    I offer as a prize a set of LNP testiculator probes as a prize for the first to decode this item – I understand that the same methodology is required as that of of Isaac Newton in his attempts to find the date of Armageddon. Value of prize – up to $3 million.

    ****************************************

    The True Bible code: Welcome to all who seek the truth!
    http://www.truebiblecode.com/welcome.html

    Sir Isaac Newton knew that the Bible was written in a code. He spent around half of his life trying to decode it. He died trying to work out the date of Armageddon.

  45. Pegasus, its not just the new access and assistance bill thats the problem. They are ramping up restrictions on researchers in Australia communicating with the rest of the world under the older Defence Trade Controls Act.
    The Australian Governments seem intent on locking Australia out of the use of technology that they cant control.

    “The Department of Defence quietly stopped renewals of unrestricted communication exemptions for cyber security and cryptography researchers subject to export control laws at the end of 2018, a move that came without warning to the research community.”

    https://www.itnews.com.au/news/defence-dumped-unrestricted-crypto-research-permits-without-warning-519063

  46. The greens and other activists hyperventilating against Adani should really take a deep breath and consider why they are wasting all of their time and resources campaigning against a fairy tale / dream and doing their best impersonation of Don Quoixte.

    Adani does not exist, has little chance of going ahead and yet they continue to focus on fighting against nothing but the name “ Adani “ and ignore the huge environmental issues facing Australia. Issues that actually exist and are destroying our country now. Murray Darling for example.

    Adani is their pagan god.

  50. GG, you are correct about fretting over things that may never happen.

    People should be more worried about things that do happen. Like paying to much for mortgages because if unnecessary trailing commissions to their brokers.

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