BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 57
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  2. Victoria:

    As Bill Maher said, the Patriots win, they have their post win visit with Trump, it’ll be the first time in his presidency there’s a patriot in the White House.

  3. And we put this woman into Parliament!

    SkyNews
    I’ll have some stupid with breakfast please – once again unchallenged Hanson makes an outrageous accusation – this time the Unions are trying to undermine banks so they can take over the banking system.

  5. With the Hayne RC Report due for release at 4.10, query if Monday becomes a special garbage day, with the government releasing other reports from 4.15 to 4.59pm!

  7. Rebekha Sharkie –

    “We’ve got a timeframe for the election and voters will make their decision in May.

    I think this is the right approach as well – let voters deal with the tories.

  8. Victoria says: Monday, February 4, 2019 at 8:34 am

    PhoenixRed

    It would be great if the Rams win! So far I’m just not feeling it. I hope to be wrong!

    ****************************************************

    Angry Super Bowl fans lash out at ‘racist’ Trump after he promotes New England Patriots in CBS pregame interview

    President Donald Trump’s “Face the Nation” interview on Sunday had a particular clip that aired a few hours before the Super Bowl. In the interview segment, Trump was asked about football and the specifics about what he thinks will happen during the game.

    The president sang the praises of the owner of the team and Tom Brady

    The CBS interview prompted many to blast the president for taking a position on the teams ahead of the game. Others simply used it as an opportunity to troll the president, who’s having a 700-person party at Mar-a-Lago for the game.

    Andrew Cunningham @idledmuse

    Absolutely incredible piece on @NFLonCBS about the Civil Rights history of #Atlanta and #Georgia – you just know that @realDonaldTrump and the rest of the rich, old, white men at Mar a Lago were whipping their caviar forks at the TVs while watching it

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/angry-super-bowl-fans-lash-racist-trump-promotes-new-england-patriots-cbs-pregame-interview/

  9. Victoria @ #2003 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:36 am

    C@t

    Last week, friend of mine received huge fine for doing exactly what your son does. Here in Vic, you cant have the phone anywhere on your person whilst driving. And the fines are huge

    Oh, same here, but you know what young men are like. They all think they are smarter than the cops. 😆

  11. lizzie @ #2006 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:44 am

    And we put this woman into Parliament!

    SkyNews
    I’ll have some stupid with breakfast please – once again unchallenged Hanson makes an outrageous accusation – this time the Unions are trying to undermine banks so they can take over the banking system.

    I met a Hanson voter while I was out campaigning for the NSW State election last week. He drove the Rubbish Truck in the local area. He simply said that Hanson was the only one who would say openly that she didn’t want more immigrants coming to this country. Neither did he. So he doesn’t care about all the other crap she comes out with!

  15. Victoria @ #2000 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:36 am

    C@t

    Last week, friend of mine received huge fine for doing exactly what your son does. Here in Vic, you cant have the phone anywhere on your person whilst driving.

    Plus how would you live with yourself if you killed someone while driving & using a mobile phone? A child, a family etc.

    Easier and far better to make/ take any calls later.

  16. Greensborough Growler @ #1993 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 7:42 am

    Here’s something to calm the frayed nerves of the people of rain sodden Townsville.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I am waiting for katter to say something. Crocs on the roof of houses, people eaten by Crocs during a rescue. Sadly it is quite possible. it is also probable that some crocs will move South, since i assume quite a few will be washed out to sea and may land in new environments.

  17. DaretoTread @ #2016 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:03 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1993 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 7:42 am

    Here’s something to calm the frayed nerves of the people of rain sodden Townsville.

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    I am waiting for katter to say something. Crocs on the roof of houses, people eaten by Crocs during a rescue. Sadly it is quite possible. it is also probable that some crocs will move South, since i assume quite a few will be washed out to sea and may land in new environments.

    We in Victoruia should build a wall to keep the crocs out and NSW is going to pay for it!

  18. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-03/world-record-set-for-most-marilyn-monroes-in-one-place/10775164

    Up to $100,000 to be raised for cancer

    Organisers said about $65,000 had already been raised this year for the Cancer Council SA, and they were on track to top $100,000 in total.

    Many of the Marilyns have gone through — or are currently living through — cancer treatment themselves.

    Ms Tinney said the male Marilyns — who were welcomed into the event for the first time this year — fit in well.

    “My wife’s been suffering breast cancer for the last year, so this is a real celebration, her prognosis is really good,” bearded Marilyn Phil Hodgson said

    All in a good cause. A lost opportunity for MPs craving publicity. 😵

  20. ScumMo must be delighted, I mean horrified, that the Townsville flood might distract people from his great response to the release of the banking RC report.

    Also, with personal financial integrity a byword for this government, I noted they are waiting till after the stock markets close before releasing the report today. With only perhaps cabinet knowing the recommendations up to then, I trust nobody has been buying or selling any bank or finance shares in the mean time? I know, I don’t need to ask. No Liberal minister (or Barnaby!) would ever commit insider trading.

  22. With only perhaps cabinet knowing the recommendations up to then, I trust nobody has been buying or selling any bank or finance shares in the mean time?

    Would you be able to find this from the register of declared interests? It might be some time into the future, but still.

  23. phoenixRED

    If the US pulls out of Syria and Iraq intelligence officials, say that ISIS will regain the territory that it lost in 6-12 months

    If US ‘intelligence’ people are claiming that then they are utter bullshit artists.

  24. Greensborough Growler @ #2009 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:05 am

    DaretoTread @ #2016 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:03 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1993 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 7:42 am

    Here’s something to calm the frayed nerves of the people of rain sodden Townsville.

    <a href="<a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    I am waiting for katter to say something. Crocs on the roof of houses, people eaten by Crocs during a rescue. Sadly it is quite possible. it is also probable that some crocs will move South, since i assume quite a few will be washed out to sea and may land in new environments.

    We in Victoruia should build a wall to keep the crocs out and NSW is going to pay for it!

    You should perhaps put up a cane toad fence first.

    But actually the Southern movement of crocodiles is a potentially nasty effect of climate change. The deadly stinger IS moving south we know and I guess crocs will follow. Surfing at Noosa may not be such fun for you Victorians.

    Actually I was just prompted to check the distribution of Crocs and too my horror the current map
    http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=1774
    has the likely distribution down to Sunchsine beach (below Noosa) and the potential distribution only an hours drive north of ME.

    Gulp!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. Dave

    Exactly what friend said. She was happy to cop the fine. She told the police that she knows better, but the compulsion was strong. And having to pay large fine is better than causing tragic accident.
    It’s silly to think that getting caught and paying fine is what is needed to change behaviour, but there you go.

  26. poroti @ #2015 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:15 am

    phoenixRED

    If the US pulls out of Syria and Iraq intelligence officials, say that ISIS will regain the territory that it lost in 6-12 months

    If US ‘intelligence’ people are claiming that then they are utter bullshit artists.

    Poroti

    They MIGHT because the US Intelligence willfund them again and supply them with weapons. ISIS has ALWAYS been a US puppet operation, but like so many puppets, elements went rogue.

  29. They say it as if it would be a bad idea 😉

    SkyNews
    I’ll have some stupid with breakfast please – once again unchallenged Hanson makes an outrageous accusation – this time the Unions are trying to undermine banks so they can take over the banking system.

  30. Murdoch tabloid organs getting frustrated with Scotty’s ineptness…

    “SCOTT Morrison made a serious tactical mistake when he created his Cabinet after Malcolm Turnbull was punted last year.

    He appointed a junior nobody to the environment portfolio.

    And if you do know who the Environment Minister is (it’s Melissa Price), it’s probably only because of the series of gaffes she’s made.

    The environment ministry, which includes climate change, is a significant and weighty portfolio.

    However not all climate change deniers are those who cover their windows with tinfoil and believe they have been probed by aliens.

    Some voters are genuinely confused and torn by the issue.

    And that is because the mechanism or policies to address climate change have been too extreme or ideologically incendiary to some voters.

    And climate change has wrongly become the reason or excuse for too many single events – it’s hot today, we had a bushfire, we had a cyclone, I have too many snails on my lawn, birds have fallen from the sky etc.

    But by appointing a newbie to Cabinet, Mr Morrison reinforced the perception for many that the Coalition does not take the issue of climate change seriously. And often perception becomes the reality.”

    https://outline.com/nXmnRg

  31. “You should perhaps put up a cane toad fence first” Yes – there’s been two incidents of pets poisoned by cane toads here in East Maitland (NSW lower Hunter valley) in recent weeks.

  32. Bet you didn’t know the RW Independent challengers in Liberal party seats were part of a Labor plot? Credlin sets the record straight!

    Beware the Labor mutton dressed as Liberal lamb

    PETA CREDLIN These candidates are not independents, or mere disaffected ex-Liberals, they’re part of sophisticated effort by the Left to make inroads into Liberal seats, writes Peta Credlin. (DT headline)

  33. Victoria

    They are all bullshit artists, so go with reality. Which is ISIS have been largely defeated. They will still be able to carry out attacks and suicide bombings but the notion they will retake their territory in Iraq and Syria is la la land stuff.

  34. Victoria @ #2025 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:16 am

    Dave

    Exactly what friend said. She was happy to cop the fine. She told the police that she knows better, but the compulsion was strong. And having to pay large fine is better than causing tragic accident.
    It’s silly to think that getting caught and paying fine is what is needed to change behaviour, but there you go.

    Vic – last week in Sydney a Bus driver hit and killed two food delivery men on motorbikes stopped at traffic lights – using his phone didn’t see them.

    Pointless deaths – and for what – some crappy text or call that could have waited.

  35. Jack Sumner on twitter reading the SmearStralian entrails, and discovers what we all know…

    @australian p1 A line by Simon Benson under header “Refuge fix: PM calls in doctors” says all you need to know about this Govt.

    “In a letter expected to be sent to Bill Shorten today, and seen by The @australian “

  36. What right have they? In Aus, women are ‘allowed’ to travel unaccompanied.

    Witnesses and activists have accused Australian Border Force officers of targeting Saudi Arabian women whom they suspect will apply for asylum and blocking them from entering the country when they arrive at Australian airports.

    Four Corners has evidence of at least two young Saudi women who arrived at Sydney Airport in the past two years but were turned back after making their asylum claims clear to Australian officials.

    Four Corners has also been told that Saudi women who arrive alone at Australian airports are being questioned as to why they are travelling without a male guardian.

    At least 80 Saudi women have sought asylum in Australia in recent years, many of them fleeing Saudi Arabia’s oppressive male guardianship laws, which allow their husbands, fathers, brothers, uncles and even sons to strictly control their lives.

    Four Corners has spoken to several Saudi women who managed to escape the Middle Eastern kingdom and make it to Australia. All of them remain on bridging visas waiting for their asylum claims to be processed.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-04/border-force-accused-of-targeting-saudi-women-traveling-alone/10768036

  37. C@tmomma @ #1997 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 7:31 am

    My other son, who owns a car, has figured out how to put his phone to rest on to the area between his lap and the bottom of the steering wheel. That way he can’t be seen using it unless a police car pulls up beside him and looks down. 😐

    That could generate some interesting queries as to why he was looking at his crotch while driving when he is pulled over.

  40. citizen says:

    Bet you didn’t know the RW Independent challengers in Liberal party seats were part of a Labor plot? Credlin sets the record straight!

    Plot update, a new source found. Rita Panahi calls the female ones ‘Turnbull Termites’ . So it’s ‘The Revenge of Lucien Aye’.

  41. sprocket_ @ #2030 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 9:23 am

    Murdoch tabloid organs getting frustrated with Scotty’s ineptness…

    “SCOTT Morrison made a serious tactical mistake when he created his Cabinet after Malcolm Turnbull was punted last year.

    He appointed a junior nobody to the environment portfolio.

    And if you do know who the Environment Minister is (it’s Melissa Price), it’s probably only because of the series of gaffes she’s made.

    The environment ministry, which includes climate change, is a significant and weighty portfolio.

    But by appointing a newbie to Cabinet, Mr Morrison reinforced the perception for many that the Coalition does not take the issue of climate change seriously. And often perception becomes the reality.”

    https://outline.com/nXmnRg

    Someone who is good with photo shopping might be able to modify this the local situation –

  42. I just caught up with Insiders… hate to say it but Rex was right about Bill sounding too rehearsed on talking points.

    Yes, in the first few minutes he sounded completely wooden and rehearsed but he then did warm up and sounded more natural.

  43. It’s Time

    About a decade ago, when texting was relatively new, I looked up during a class to see the whole back row of boys intently staring at their crotches.

    I was a bit nervous about investigating what was going on!

  44. PETA CREDLIN These candidates are not independents, or mere disaffected ex-Liberals, they’re part of sophisticated effort by the Left to make inroads into Liberal seats, writes Peta Credlin. (DT headline)

    Well, yes. They are Liberal voters who want their party back towards the centre instead of in the far right corner.

  45. Vietnam driving tip:

    When you see a rider straighten out their leg, give them a wide berth as they are going for their mobile and will start riding erratically!
    …….
    I’ve often fantasised about riding up next to them and quickly tapping the phone out of their hand, but it would be too dangerous to get that close. 🙂

  47. “I read somewhere that the Townsville area has already received 2000mm this year. That’s about 80 inches in the old!”

    As at 8:00 this morning, Townsville Airport has had 1,125 millimetres of rain since January 27 (9 days), about 45″. That’s an amount approximately equal to its annual rainfall.

    Other locations, especially in Mountains, would have had more.

  49. poroti @ #2025 Monday, February 4th, 2019 – 8:26 am

    Victoria

    They are all bullshit artists, so go with reality. Which is ISIS have been largely defeated. They will still be able to carry out attacks and suicide bombings but the notion they will retake their territory in Iraq and Syria is la la land stuff.

    Absolutely

    Anyone who believes any intelligence agency at face value is a fool, whether it is US intelligence, MI6, Mossad or the Russians. They will ALL be spinning like a roulette wheel, at least in everything they tell the public and any foreign entities.

    The ONLY difference might be the extent to which they tell the truth to their OWN governments. This will vary. I am pretty sure that the Military set up their OWN systems to keep tabs on the other spy services. I would also lay odds on that OUR security services did not tell the full truth to Whitlam or the ALP government of the time. In other words anyone on the LEFT of Australian (or UK or British) politics would have to be a total moron to assume that the intelligence services are working FOR a Labor government but rather not actively undermining them.

    We saw two cases in the Gillard years where leaks obviously from within the Australian intelligence services deliberately undermined her.

    Remember that I have had the pleasure of entertaining Defence service spies in my living room. They were scared of the ALP left. At the time (i/we) thought it a bit of a joke but in hindsight it is pretty scary.

  50. ‘Unconscionable’: GOP Senate Homeland Security chair torches Trump’s Syria policy

    The Republican chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Sunday torched the Trump administration’s plans for a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, saying the exodus of American soldiers from the region would be “tragic” and “unconscionable.”

    “ISIS was able to rise from the thoroughly defeated ashes of al-Qaida in Iraq, and I don’t want to be making the same statement six months from now that we bugged out of Syria unwisely and that ISIS has re-emerged from the defeated ashes of ISIS in Syria,” Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin told host Chris Wallace on “Fox News Sunday.”

    “I think it would just be tragic if we bugged out, left the Kurds who, by and large, have done the fighting and have defeated the ISIS caliphate, the territorial caliphate and ISIS, if we just abandoned them to the mercies — and I use that term loosely — of Russia and Iran and, possibly, Turkey,” Johnson said. “It would just be unconscionable.”

    Johnson also encouraged the president to heed the objections of former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Brett McGurk, the former top U.S. envoy overseeing the effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist network. Both officials resigned in December, in part because of the planned troop drawdown.

    “It’s a very bad sign when Secretary Mattis resigns, Brett McGurk, our envoy there for the defeat of ISIS, also resigns because they simply can’t carry out this policy,” Johnson said. “These are people that are intimately knowledgeable of the conditions on the ground, of our allies there, and they simply couldn’t in good conscience stay in office. That’s a pretty bad sign, and I hope the president is listening to those people, as well.”

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/03/trump-syria-policy-ron-johnson-1144295

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