The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.
UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.
KayJay @ #847 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:27 pm
A thousand pardons the outline address will be below at the end of the outlined item. 😢😢
Player One:
I think you’re a fair player, but I’ll l play fire with fire even it’s below the belt. I must admit, however, that I often err, you being the best judge of same.
53-47 is set in stone for them isn’t it.
Last time I took 57-43 in the sweep & they came in 53-47.
This time I learned my lesson and took 53-47.
What’s my prize?
SilentMajority @ #52 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:56 pm
You get to take the salute at the Poll Bludgers’ march past next Orstraya day.
Congratulation. 🙋
SilentMajority @ #52 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:56 pm
You just got it! 😆
They only got 47 because its been holiday season..
53/47 would be how many seats? 15 – 18?
briefly says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 10:34 pm
The polls are not capturing the shift away from the Liberals.
Exactly.
That’s what I was thinking, Cud. More business types at home. Still, it’s a realistic reflection of the reality Labor faces. Some people will support the Coalition come hell or high water.
53 would be a great result, but considering that Rudd got just below 53 against a comparatively competent government it is still surprising it’s not regularly 55 or 56, considering everything that has happened since the coup.
nath @ #59 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:04 pm
The timing of the polling is questionable. What with being over a long weekend for a patriotism-stoking holiday.
Could also just be statistical noise dancing around a stable 54/46 reality.
a r
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 11:08 pm
nath @ #59 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:04 pm
53 would be a great result, but considering that Rudd got just below 53 against a comparatively competent government it is still surprising it’s not regularly 55 or 56
The timing of the polling is questionable. What with being over a long weekend for a patriotism-stoking holiday.
Could also just be statistical noise dancing around a stable 54/46 reality.
__________________________________
Well that’s it yes. If it’s 54 on election night its one of the biggest wins ever.
What’s the chance we’ll be in recession by May?
I have a feeling in my waters that there was negative growth in the last quarter. If we’re in recession for a May election then surely it’s an epic landslide.
C@tmomma – Newspoll switched to using a mix of landlines and online polling when the brand transferred to Galaxy in 2015. They may have since included mobiles as well but I don’t have firm evidence of that.
Incidentally, I have this as the first time January 26 has been in the Newspoll sample since 1986. In 1986 including it didn’t cause any obvious issues with the results.
Benson concedes this
Equally, voters simply may have been paying absolutely no attention over the break and have yet to be reminded how much they dislike the government.
Did the Gillard government get a bounce in the first poll of 2013?
Way late, but FWIW, here are the PB guesses for “next week’s” Newspoll, which of course arrived tonight. We did our ignorant best. Apologies to all and any who thought, like me, that the Newspoll would occur in 7 days time. 🙁
Gongs to: Confessions, Rossmore, Mavis Smith, Silent Majority, and Sohar.
PB Newspoll-Poll 2019-01-28
Actual: ALP 53 to 47 LNP
PB mean: ALP 54.5 to 45.5 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.5 to 45.5 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 41
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 Al Pal
56 / 44 autocrat
54 / 46 BK
55 / 45 booleanbach
56 / 44 briefly
54 / 46 C@tmomma
53 / 47 Confessions
55 / 45 d-money
55 / 45 Dave from Wagga
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
55 / 45 Fozzie Logic
53.5 / 46.5 Frednk *permanent
57 / 43 Gecko
52 / 48 grimace
55 / 45 Harry “Snapper” Organs
54.5 / 45.5 ICanCU
52 / 48 It’s Time
54 / 46 jenauthor’s head
55 / 45 jenauthor’s heart
60 / 40 KayJay
54 / 46 klasib
54 / 46 Late Riser
53 / 47 Mavis Smith
54 / 46 Onebobsworth
55 / 45 pica
55 / 45 Player One
55 / 45 poroti
55 / 45 Puffytmd
55 / 45 Quasar
54 / 46 Red13
54 / 46 Rex Douglas
55 / 45 rhwombat
53 / 47 Rossmore
53 / 47 SilentMajority
53 / 47 Sohar
54 / 46 steve davis
54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
54 / 46 Tricot
55 / 45 Upnorth
55 / 45 Wayne
Kevin Bonham @ #63 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:30 pm
That was before the RWNJ’s amped the culture wars nonsense up to 11.
KB said:
Incidentally, I have this as the first time January 26 has been in the Newspoll sample since 1986.
Because Scomo’s going to call an election tomorrow?
Gosh, how suspicious am I?
atest sweep update on the question”Who will be the next Coalition MP to quit?”
Steve Davis-Julie Bishop
Quasar——Craig Laundy
Agoo44——Peter Dutton(unsure)
Tom———Tony Abbott
Gareth——-Warren Entsch
Zoidlord——NT or QLD MP
3z———–Sussan Ley
Late Riser—–Michelle Landry
Grimace——Ken Wyatt
Briefly—–Steve Irons(poss)
Iom——-Craig Laundy
Player One -Scott Morrison(not his own choice)
Sgh1969—Christopher Pyne
Rex Douglas–Kevin Andrews
DTT——Ken Wyatt
Bilko—–Stuart Robert
Vote1Julia–Craig Laundy
Sprocket–Angus Taylor
PuffyTMD-Craig Laundy
Steve777–Julie Bishop
HaveAchat–Michael McCormack
Confessions- Craig Laundy
Goll—— Stuart Robert ?
Bennelong Lurker–Craig Laundy
Kambah Mick–Angus Taylor
Booleanbach–Andrew Hastie
JenAuthor—Craig Laundy
Henry——Craig Laundy
Dave from Wagga–Michael McCormack
Upnorth—John Alexander
ABC story on the Murdoch rebuff.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-28/bill-shorten-turns-down-meeting-with-rupert-murdoch/10755892
Meh:
Is there more to come?
The last election was called with 8 weeks campaigning and the polls hardly changed at all.So 53-47 will be difficult to turn round in such a short period.
Australians cant be that stupid.
Bulldust poll, Shorten will not knee down to the American anti democracy Murdoch and this is the result.
“I see the flaccid prick nath is trying to go hard on these Newspoll numbers. ”
Lol! And with his input on ALP needing the Greens?? I wonder if that silly thing which is nath considers when the last time the Libs would have won Govt if they weren’t in coalition with the confused RW beetrooting weak as piss nutter agrarian socialists that are the Nats??
I’ve always had the notion that after the conniption fit that was the Liberal #leadershit had filtered through polling would settle around 53 / 47.
As I have said before, of course the sitting Prime Minister is going to be polled as the better Prime Minister. He IS the Prime Minister.
@Barney: If you look closely, you might see Uncle Rupert reaching for the burn ointment – he used to be Australian, until commercial expedience dictated he drop his birth citizenship. Now the next PM refuses to so much as kiss his ring…precisely because he’s no longer an Australian!
I wonder – how many kings have had any real power in exile from their homelands? 😛
I see Venezuela is going to pot. And our Muppets have just chimed in. 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/28/australia-recognises-juan-guaido-venezuela-president
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/28/venezuela-coup-trump-juan-guaido
Best, or at least the “least worst” outcome i can see is the Venezuelan military tapping Maduro on the shoulder and doing a deal with the “opposition”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-warns-australian-economy-could-tumble-into-recession-under-labor-20190128-p50u2s.html
Hmmm….ScoMo ramping up on whats going to be in his alleged “budget”.
I wonder if he realizes that one thing Shorten has form on is delivering a cracker of a “Budget in Reply” speech? 🙂
Or maybe…Bill will Albo Make a Speech???? 🙂
If you support a party with 47 not long before an election, you would know a miracle is needed. As Bob Hope said to his brother, No Hope, no chance.
The realisation that Scummo is not real bright will continue to be a negative. Unfortunately he can’t get a brain transplant so that cannot be fixed. The realisation that he is dumber than that person who lives 3 houses down the road from you is a worry except for the highly intelligent who have been smarter than most politicians in the last 20 years. Perhaps some post here!!
Those educated young candidates may win the Lib seat this time around but many of those seats will not reelect an independent next time. Up for grabs.
Next to go – the rhythm man HUNT.
Next poll – Lab 54 /L/NP 46
Something for the Blairites t0 consider:
@georgegalloway
Only 25 MPs tried to save BBC Manchester’s Jewish Community Radio three years ago. #Corbyn #McDonnell and me were three of them. Just think about that…
‘I will create whatever how many jobs’ says it all about the Liberal leaders.
As if they make decisions to create jobs and business people are hanging off their every word.
To use this create jobs figure is political and dishonest. The Liberal leaders should be called out for their dishonesty.
For most workers, the Liberal party will create part-time casual work with no penalty rates or holiday pay, no provision for sick leave and complete disregard for the well being of workers and their families.
The fact that the LNP are within niggling distance of causing an upset at the next election is indicative of a populace with a high degree of disconnect from the political class.
The rapid technological changes occurring within electricity sector will in a relatively short time, dispatch the arguments for the use of fossil fuels to history, only prolonged by the insistance of the extraction industry and their intertwined affair with the Liberal party.
The state of the Darling River says all that needs to be said about the National Party.
The Labor Party will win the next election, Bill Shorten will be the next PM, technology will save us from the shenanigans of the political classes and everyday brings us closer to the political change needed in Australia.
If you’re wondering whether the LNP should be confined to the backblocks just grab a couple of mates, call yourself a foundation, ask Morrison for 500 mill and tell him you’ll do the paperwork later but you’ll save the inland river system.
The LNP should be called the UV party, the Ultra Vexatious coalition, noxious, rampantly dishonest and unfair.
Kevin Bonham @ #63 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:30 pm
Thank you, Mr Bonham. 🙂
Next question, how do they choose their online sample? Is it the same as Essential?
Back to the real thing. Off to campaign to the early risers again. See you later. 🙂
The other day ‘Late Riser’ posted the following image, but did not know which ABC article it was from.
You can find the original article by dragging and dropping the picture into the Google image search box,
i.e. an “image image search”
And the original article is Farmer pleads for help as Murray Darling Basin faces ‘worst man-made disaster’ in its history
Thanks Fozzie Logic. @5:46am
This is a photo of a tragedy caused by greed.
Shorten could run a campaign about “The Forgotten People” who live in the Murray Darling Basin.
It worked for Menzies.
The effing yanks not even trying to pretend Venezuela is not about oil ! Scum bag Bolton spells it out.
.
.
“It will make a big difference to the United States economically if we could have American oil companies invest in and produce the oil capabilities in Venezuela.”
https://twitter.com/HootHootBerns/status/1089857134920114176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1089857134920114176&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rt.com%2Fusa%2F449982-john-bolton-oil-venezuela%2F
Fozzie Logic
One advantage of a May Federal election is that it may help ensure that the terrible Liberal-National Coalition Government of NSW also gets swept away. Their mismanagement of the Darling Rver and the Menindee Lakes has become the most patently visbile sign of their incompetence. I see a big backlash coming against all Liberals and Nationals in rural seats, to match the backlash Berejiklian and co are going to get in Sydney. And as in the Victorian election, the media won’t see it coming – they wil predict some ‘manageable’ losses and then the tsunami will reveal itself on election night.
And NSW will be the harbinger of the later Federal wipeout.
‘Trump less powerful than ever’ after shutting down government: conservative columnist
As conservative Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin points out, Republican Senators—especially ones with close primaries in 2020—don’t appear enthusiastic about another government shutdown.
“Judging from the reaction of Senate Republicans on the Sunday news shows, President Trump’s threat to instigate another shutdown if he does not get the wall is entirely empty — and his own Republican allies in the Senate know it,” Rubin writes.
Trump has even less leverage now than he did when he was forced to reopen the government. He can huff and puff, but not even Republicans in Congress think they can get away with demanding “a wall or else!” There is no “else,” and everyone but Trump seems to have gotten the message.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-less-powerful-ever-shutting-government-conservative-columnist/
Extensions to enable reading and decluttering of online articles.
Firefox – Send to Outline
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/send-to-outline/?src=search
Chrome – Outline
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/outline-read-annotate-wit/daoolpmoieinofbnddaofhkhmbagfmnj
Good morning. ☕
The Republican Party Is Openly Whispering That Trump Will Lose In 2020
Those whispers that Trump is heading for defeat are getting louder. Republican governors have warned Trump that the party is heading for a 2020 disaster if he stays on his current course. The New Times reported over the weekend that even Trump’s own advisers are worried that he has no positive message to run on in 2020, “But even among his own political lieutenants, there is a general recognition that Mr. Trump currently lacks anything resembling a positive message.”
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/01/28/the-republican-party-is-openly-whispering-that-trump-will-lose-in-2020.html
Today is a New Years Day of sorts, the first ‘normal’ day of the year.
Christmas is a distant memory, the holidays are finished, the annual Australia Day Wars, muted this year, have fizzled through lack of interest. The traffic, gradually rebuilding over the last few weeks, is back in full, ditto the crowds on public transport, although schoolkids still have one more day off. The polls are back, the main political argy bargy is set to resume.
Happy New Year.
Fresh after ScoMo’s pathetic Australia Day culture war failure, He’s now saying a vote for Bill Shorten is
a vote for Australia going into Recession, PATHETIC
PM warns Australian economy could tumble into recession under Labor
Morning all
I suppose we are increasingly looking at a May poll unless the PM takes the car for a spin to the GG today.
“… [ScoMo’s] now saying a vote for Bill Shorten is
a vote for Australia going into Recession, PATHETIC”
What happens if Bill Shorten wins according to ScoMo:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ICE6l-5qTYE
Turned on the TV this moring to headlines of’Libs back in the game , massive turnaround in polls – – -‘ etc.
I thought “Strewth, Newspoll must be 50/50”
If it goes backward from here to 54/46 or even 55/45 will we get more screaming headlines of “Libs in deep doo doo” – i don’t think so.
Instead it turned out to be overhyped. I am more than happy with 53/47 at this stage of the election campaign.
Rev Dr Stephanie Dowrick
The Devil and Scott Morrison https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/february/1548939600/james-boyce/devil-and-scott-morrison … An absolute “must read”: the PM’s bizarre religious beliefs drive his endangering political ideology and will matter greatly until voters say no more. Heartbreaking to see “Jesus” used in this madness. @QandA @cathywilcox1
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s a bit of a slow news morning and Outline isn’t doing the job for me either.
Morrison is warning that the Australian economy could tumble into recession under Labor. Is fear all they have in their locker?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-warns-australian-economy-could-tumble-into-recession-under-labor-20190128-p50u2s.html
According to Deloitte-Access the Morrison government is now more focused on protecting its electoral chances than the nation’s finances with claims it is going on a pre-poll spending spree based on a short-term boost in tax collections. It’s Howard/Costello all over again!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-focus-now-on-saving-government-not-the-bottom-line-says-deloitte-access-20190128-p50u2o.html
Michelle Grattan writes about a re-elected Coalition government promising to create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years. (Another way of saying the population will continue to increase).
https://theconversation.com/morrison-commits-to-1-25-million-new-jobs-over-five-years-110617
And she talks about Frydenberg’s reported independent challenger.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-independent-push-against-frydenberg-110600
Sam Maiden looks at the chances of Morrison government ministers in the upcoming election.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/28/fight-for-survival-ministers-2019-election/
John Passant writes that no one is buying the Coalition’s neoliberal message.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/no-one-is-buying-the-coalitions-neoliberal-message,12319
More from Julia Thornton on the selling of electoral roll data.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/electoral-roll-makes-you-a-digit-in-the-data-economy-20190128-p50u3f.html
Cole Latimer explains how AGL has escalated its attack on the government’s planned power company break-up laws, arguing it would drive up power prices and make the grid less reliable.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/extreme-and-arbitrary-agl-slams-government-s-forced-divestment-bill-20190128-p50u39.html
Australia’s plagued National Broadband Network is scheduled to be finished next year, but experts have warned the “hotchpotch” network has created a “lottery” where some homes receive vastly inferior connections to others.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2019/01/28/what-homebuyers-should-know-about-the-nbn/
ScoMo stars in Episode 02 of IA’s new series covering political blunders, faux pas and politicians just being themselves, presented by digital editor Dan Jensen.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/independent-australias-bloody-idiot-of-the-week–episode-02-scomos-red-hot-go,12320
The Age has a consumer’s guide to the banking royal commission’s final report.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/a-consumer-s-guide-to-the-banking-royal-commission-s-final-report-20190128-p50u2t.html
Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that the sustainability of the New Year bounce back in stock markets may be determined by what US Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, says or doesn’t say after this week’s meeting of the Fed’s open market committee. The potential for a continuation of the surge, or another sell-off, may hinge on his post-meeting press conference.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/the-press-conference-that-could-shake-markets-20190128-p50u2e.html
Peter Martin tells us the Australian economy will remain healthy for long enough to enable the government to claim it as a strength in the lead-up to the May election, but the first Conversation Economic Survey points to a fairly flat outlook beyond that, with a 25% chance of a recession in the next two years.
https://theconversation.com/no-surplus-no-share-market-growth-no-lift-in-wage-growth-economic-survey-points-to-bleaker-times-post-election-110315
Richo says Clive Palmer may well be a dab hand when it comes to discovering iron ore, but when it comes to politics he demonstrates over and over again what a mug he is.
https://outline.com/Hyah7M
Child abuse survivors and advocates will stage a protest at Catholic mass events being held for the legal profession on Tuesday, saying the church and state should be separate.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/29/red-mass-child-abuse-survivors-protest-against-catholic-event-for-legal-profession
The Tribune tries to understand just what Trump’s proposed wall really is.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/just-what-does-trump-mean-by-a-wall-anyway-20190128-p50u2f.html
The Washington Post tries to understand why so many if Trump’s advisors have been caught out for lying.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-advisers-lied-over-and-over-again-mueller-says-but-why-20190128-p50u0x.html
Dana McCauley reports that the Australian Medical Association has outlined a multibillion-dollar list of demands before the Morrison’s government’s pre-election budget, including new Medicare items to allow GPs to spend longer with patients.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ama-demands-more-funding-to-let-doctors-spend-more-time-with-patients-20190128-p50u47.html
What has happened in Venezuela is a coup. Trump’s denial is dangerous.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/28/venezuela-coup-trump-juan-guaido
In telling and typical fashion the United Arab Emirates gives all its ‘gender balance’ awards to men.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/united-arab-emirates-gives-all-its-gender-balance-awards-to-men-20190129-p50u7c.html
Cartoon Corner
David Pope takes the Big Blue Bus to sea.
Cathy Wilcox on Shorten’s bus ride.
From Matt Golding.
John Shakespeare in Warringah.
David Rowe’s gone there too.
More from David Rowe.
Glen Le Lievre traces Cook’s journey.
Alan Moir with Morrison’s confidence.