Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:
• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.
• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.
Being a student of the life and times of Bill Shorten, nth would know, that as a dedicated Union leader concerned for the welfare of his members he stood in the rain waiting for word from the rescuers. There was nothing he could do personally, but to be there and show solidarity with his members – above and below ground.
In a general election Labor can’t run dead in any electorate as it could harm their senate vote.
Confessions says:
Really ? I hope so.At last someone who has refused an opportunity to kiss Rupert’s ring.
T.S. Eliot – Fragment of an agon:
https://genius.com/Ts-eliot-fragment-of-an-agon-annotated
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/boat-turnbacks-critic-not-dealing-in-real-world-says-dutton/news-story/a3830c37b9583743f81a8870504717f0
https://outline.com/EzpDfS
Lashings of lashings – more to come on tomorrow’s Poll Bludger BDSM page.
🏓 Couldn’t find a riding crop – paddle will have to do. Handcuffs extra.
Yabba
But the outbreak in NSW doesn’t seem to be German Measals; so I take your point. It’s just one of the options these wankers are exposing us to.
a r:
I meant she’s the queen of daytime chat shows, has a loyal following of tittering oldies who love her, and if she moves to Sky After Dark, esp at 9.30pm she’ll lose her fans as they’ll all be in bed at that time!
Confessions @ #756 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:55 pm
KAK’s fans are already dead!
more popular in Mosman than Manly
fairly tight correlation between PV and property values I would have thought.
poroti:
Yes it’s true. He also dismissed Tingle’s questions about News ltd being hostile to Labor by saying he isn’t going to worry about things he can’t change.
Reading between the lines I reckon he knows they have little influence anyway other than with rusted on coalition voters. So what is the point getting worked up about it?
sprocket_
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 7:51 pm
Being a student of the life and times of Bill Shorten, nth would know, that as a dedicated Union leader concerned for the welfare of his members he stood in the rain waiting for word from the rescuers. There was nothing he could do personally, but to be there and show solidarity with his members – above and below ground.
______________________________
that’s one way of looking at it. Another would be to see someone who has been planning to be Prime Minister since they were a teenager seizing the moment to get national recognition. But hey, whatever floats your boat!
GG:
Norty!
KAK is not being employed to express any original views, I assume.
phoenixRED @ #466 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 3:52 pm
You are quite right, that never entered my mind when I was opting out.
Another question:
Is it possible to determine that you have opted out? That is, that myhealthrecord has no record of my health details?
In a general election Labor can’t run dead in any electorate as it could harm their senate vote.
Sure they can. And do.
It’s all about resources, which aren’t infinite, and are therefore managed to produce the maximum result.
Labor will run a campaign in Warringah same as always, but it won’t be greatly funded and whilst they won’t shout it out loud people will know that it’s ok to vote one Zali in the Reps and put a 1 in the Labor ATL box on the Senate paper.
And all the resources will go into making sure seats like Reid come home and Labor wins government with as big a majority as possible.
What’s left will go to ensuring that there are plenty of red shirts at as many booths as possible (especially in Labor seats) to boost the total vote especially the Senate vote. But that’s a fair way down the priority list. You get to 76 seats in the reps first and foremost. The more you can get over that number in the Reps, the more the Senate will take care of itself.
Mavis
As a lover of Eliot’s poetry, I would have preferred that never saw the light of day.
Ok nth, I’ll play nicely – here is Bill Shorten getting a puff piece in the Herald Sun. Surely he wouldn’t have milked this sad occurence?
And not even paywalled – one could think the demented plutocrat has flipped!
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/bill-shortens-muchloved-bulldog-theodore-dies-after-15month-battled-with-lymphoma/news-story/ca10e17992e96ad23d2c31f2597556c1?utm_medium=Twitter&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=HeraldSun&utm_content=SocialFlow
Desert Qlder @ #501 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:26 pm
Interesting. I think you are right, it will not be easy to dislodge Abbott.
I had not realised the background of the skier. Abbott is cunning, she is not.
And skiing is all she has, pretty much.
Presumably by the time Qanda starts again in a week, we will know the intentions of Julia Banks.
Don
Steggal has been a barrister for 10 years, which I agree, is not pretty much..
Here’s a stirling labor candidate for Stirling.
Jack Aranda @ #506 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:29 pm
Someone here said that when you are wheeled into Emergency, your medical history is the least of their worries. They treat what presents. If your heart has stopped, they treat that. If you have a broken leg, they treat that. If your physical condition and blood sugar levels indicate that you have a diabetes crisis, they treat that.
Bugger the databases, they don’t have the time or energy.
I doubt Abbott is in any real danger. Bad smells are hard to get rid of.
don @ #763 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:03 pm
Proving a negative? Probably not.
Ken Wyatt is the latest Liberal MP to confirm he isn’t deserting the sinking ship.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-28/wa-liberals-confident-despite-michael-keenan-exit-in-stirling/10755646
KayJay @ #516 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:38 pm
Thanks KJ, you are a genius.
I will give it a whirl next time the %$&^%^&*^*()
outline thingummy thumbs its nose at me.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 5:04 pm
The statistic that always gets me is that, if Saudi Arabia put a giant solar farm in it’s deserts, it would create enough power for the whole world!
But they don’t, because, Oil.
************
They’ve working on it
https://www.engadget.com/2018/03/28/softbank-and-saudi-arabia-to-build-worlds-biggest-solar-farm/
Good one.
“Who the F… do you think you are? I’m gonna go harder because of that. Plus, when you get stooges on here praising his ‘courage’ for the way he media whored the Beaconsfield disaster it’s gonna provoke some reaction.”
Remind me again nath what your pre election resolution was regarding Shorten? I think it is the one you keep making and immediately breaking.
You can do better. Please dial back the trolling. Please FFS …
That guy tweets that Ms Steggall has wiped her Facebook history, and some bright spark on PB says this is “stalky”.
What hyperbowl. What BS. What a massacre of the current (and valuable) accepted meaning of “stalking”.
Player One @ #567 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:23 pm
I have encountered this with solar rooftop installers.
They seem to think that the maximum is what you will get at all times. No idea why, it is not in their interests to give you the minimum I would have thought, but that seems to be the way it is.
If anyone here is considering rooftop solar, my advice, hard won, is that you cover the entire north facing roof of your house with solar panels, bugger the expense, the panels are cheap as chips now anyway, and there is a very significant time when the sun is less than visible, hidden behind clouds, and less than shining directly down on your panels. Often you get more from a vaguely cloudy sky than you get from a sunny sky when a big cloud comes over.
Oh no! Fix it, fix it, fix it!!!
don
Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:19 pm
Comment #771
KayJay @ #516 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:38 pm
If you have not already —- add the following extension for Chrome
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/outline-read-annotate-wit/daoolpmoieinofbnddaofhkhmbagfmnj
Seems to work fairly well.
Goodnight all. 🏏💤💤
“Last week, the vast wind generators in Victoria and South Australia worked at around 20 per cent of capacity in the crisis periods because the winds didn’t blow enough.”
Does the author have evidence to support those assertions? Firstly, that wind generation in SA and Vic was operating at 20% capacity. And secondly that the wind didn’t blow enough.
a r @ #777 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:32 pm
😂😂🤣🤣 Love it ❗
I was thinking that Labor ran tactical/dead in Wentworth thus helping Dr Phelps cause an embarrassment as well as a minority government. In a general election Phelps and Steggall and other right independents won’t have this advantage.
Player One @ #589 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:38 pm
So, bring it on.
Do it. It is not as though it is expensive.
Nuclear power is expensive. Coal power is expensive. Solar power just sits there putting out electrons when the sun shines, and it is totally scaleable. If one panel fails, big deal, replace it next month.
If a gas generator goes off line, if a coal generator goes offline, then you have a problem. And they go offline at the most inconvenient time, when it is hot. That is why they go offline, at the very moment you need them most.
It is not a problem for one of a group of a hundred wind towers to go up in smoke, nor for one panel out of ten thousand in a solar farm to bust a foofoo valve.
Diogenes:
[‘As a lover of Eliot’s poetry, I would have preferred that never saw the light of day.’]
That’s a tad hard. How about Prufrock?:
https://owlcation.com/humanities/Analysis-of-Poem-The-Love-Song-of-J-Alfred-Prufrock-by-TS-Eliot
Poetry comes down the reader’s taste, understanding; Eliot’s preeminent among 20th poets, a modernist par excellence – a quantum leap from the saccharin romantics – eg, Wordsworth, Byron, Shelley, Keats.
P1
Any engineer with a power background is currently either specifying, building or commissioning renewable projects. In my case I spent the day reviewing a specification. And the talk in the industry is it is only going to get worse with my semi retirement under serious threat.
Without slowing down the massive changes that are now happening to our power system, I’m curious as to where you going to get the resources for your gas dream and who is going to finance it. Perhaps you need to strike up a conversation with Barnaby.
C@tmomma @ #592 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:41 pm
Elegant riposte.
John in Highgate 6003 @ #785 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:34 pm
This ain’t Rorkes Drift and the Liberal Zulus ain’t going to do anything but murder the defenders of the past.
I have not seen a reference to this statement on Venezuela by John Pilger, Noam Chomsky and others. Apologies to bloggers if it was posted earlier!
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/01/24/open-letter-united-states-stop-interfering-venezuelas-internal-politics
For views which we don’t see in Australia See
https://venezuelanalysis.com
It seems to be impossible to find non-aligned and dispassionate commentary
Bill Shorten tells Rupert to naff off!
https://t.co/t0EwfavD4i
The transmission system does have to be strengthened, and what is required is being designed, some is already under construction. Perhaps those engineers should be taken off their projects to design a nuclear power station that will never be built.
WeWantPaul @ #634 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:03 pm
Agreed.
P1? Facts? Come now.
Instead, read this five hundred page pdf which proves that P1 has his facts wrong.
Or be directed to look back at P1’s post a hundred pages and three weeks back. That is P1’s modus operandi.
I knew a geologist once. I probably still do if I’m honest. Something he drilled into me was context. If I “bring you a rock” (that’s a US expression btw) the rock is worthless to science, which is what geology is, unless you know the rock’s context. This means where it was found, and when, and which way it was pointing, and even who found it.
There are a lot of rocks.
frednk @ #788 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:37 pm
It’s always the money with you people, isn’t it? Never the emissions 🙁
For once, I feel like agreeing with Nicholas – just print the money, FFS!
Better to suffer a bit of hyperinflation than die, surely?
don @ #789 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:37 pm
A fool might indeed think so 🙁
KayJay @ #784 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:32 pm
Thank you. I will give it a whirl!
don @ #794 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:44 pm
I have noticed that you never actually try to contradict the facts. You just resort to posts like this.
Telling.