Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:
• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.
• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.
For all the awfullness of Trump he may end up with a couple of Yuge achievements. Nth+Sth Korea are getting a lot done towards peace and now…………..
.
US, Taliban May Have Reached Accord on Troop Exit, VOA Told
ISLAMABAD —
The United States and the Taliban may have agreed on a plan for American troops to leave Afghanistan, sources privy to the development told VOA Saturday. In return, the insurgent group has given assurances that no international terrorist groups would be allowed to use Afghan soil to threaten America or any other country in the future.
The understanding is the outcome of nearly a week of intense, uninterrupted dialogue between U.S. and insurgent representatives in Doha, Qatar. Representatives of the host government and Pakistan also have been in attendance.
https://www.voanews.com/a/u-s-taliban-agree-on-troop-withdrawal-plan-sources-tell-voa/4759890.html
ratsack,
I’m wondering what Rupert thinks. I think the fiscal side is more important to him than the culture war stuff, which I think he just regards as a useful tool… for as long as it’s useful.
I think he would be perfectly happy for the Lib’s to become a modern version of traditional Liberalism, if that protected and projected his interests.
It will be interesting to see what direction he takes if things like Abbott losing happen.
lizzie @ #421 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:54 pm
What a grub Abbott is! As PM he presided over the largest migration intake in our history, but now thinks that is “too many”.
This despicable hypocrite has got to go.
poroti says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 3:22 pm
For all the awfullness of Trump he may end up with a couple of Yuge achievements. Nth+Sth Korea are getting a lot done towards peace and now…………..
**********************************************************
From what I was reading on CNN, Poroti – it looks like Japan and South Korea are having a bit of an unfriendly tet-a- tet that looks a bit dangerous ….
Why a military spat between Japan and South Korea could snowball into crisis
Japan and South Korea are engaged in a heated military dispute that analysts say could damage the already tenuous geopolitical situation in northeast Asia if the two sides do not reach a resolution.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/26/asia/south-korea-japan-spat-intl/index.html
poroti @ #439 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:17 am
The list grows!
Your simple meme is becoming more complicated.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-28/australia-recognises-venezuelan-opposition-leader-interim-leader/10755180
Yep, thanks @ LR
Costigans got a 2-3% buffer in his State seat but the ALP had a good candidate who pushed him all the way. As I see it,short of a Palaszchuk government collapse, the ALPs odds-on for the next election, so Costigan is looking for a Fed seat. The State polling in Qld has a lacklustre LNP Opposition trailing the Government and don’t look like pulling back,especially with their current leader, Deb Frecklington. The Religious Right of the LNP will probably try and roll her 12 mths out from the next election with Tim Mander and that mightn’t go over well with Qld voters. Even the rabid CM doesn’t have much to say in support of the LNP.( It seems that the CM has reverted back to its old role as the defacto Opposition, which is a telling move in itself.)
Of interest up in the Whitsundays is that while there is support for Adani, most reckon its about Herbert and the Townsville region more than them (with regards to local employment possibilities). Mackay house prices are on the up and there are lots of jobs in the smaller coal mines (some of which have reopened recently) and the Reef needs all the positive news it can get, especially after the recent shark attacks.
Costigan, unlike Christensen, has been very measured in his support for the mine, while strongly advocating other employment possibilities. Maybe George has had his day. The vultures are circling. Will Morrison front up to support George during the campaign or will the Coalition bypass him for Entschs seat further north? We shall see.
These are among the countries that support Maduro
•Bolivia
•China
•Cuba
•Nicaragua
•Russia
•Syria
•Turkey
These are the countries that support Guaido
•Argentina
•Brazil
•Canada
•Chile
•Colombia
•Costa Rica
•Ecuador
•Guatemala
•Honduras
•Panama
•Paraguay
•Peru
•United Kingdom
•United States
add Australia, Germany and France.
She will need to get her lines straight asap re her policy intentions.
Nah, not really.
She’s riding an anti-Abbott wave. She just needs to stay on her feet. So long as she doesn’t come across as a complete dill or a Labor stooge she’ll be fine. Everything so far indicates she and her advisors know exactly what’s required. Stick 100% solid to Liberal Party economic mythology, mouth some platitudes to show she’s not as regressive as Tony (super easy), and don’t get dragged off message into the weeds.
The job is to be the sort of Liberal around 20% of the voters in Warringah wish Abbott was but vote Liberal anyway and then win by adding that 20% to the 30% or so that wouldn’t vote Liberal or Abbott if their lives depended on it.
The novelty and her celebrity will be more than enough to ensure she continues to get good positive exposure, and the anti-Abbott sentiment seems to be enough to build a majority. She doesn’t need a grand policy suite. She just needs to not fuck it up.
Reminder of Antony Green’s commentary on moving the NSW election date…
Section 24B (4) of the NSW Constitution states that “The Legislative Assembly may be dissolved within 2 months before the Assembly is due to expire if the general election would otherwise be required to be held during the same period as a Commonwealth election, during a holiday period or at any other inconvenient time.”…
A dissolution of the NSW Legislative Assembly a day early on 28 February 2019 would allow the election to be put back to as late as 13 April, the week before Easter in 2019.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-04/federal-election-timing-and-how-to-move-the-dates-of-the-next-ns/9388908
Question,
If Rupert didn’t invent culture warring, he damn near perfected it.
I don’t think he sees much of a distinction frankly. The culture warring is the tool to fool enough dopes to vote against their self interests to allow him and his to fleece the stupid bastards.
The culture wars may find new enemies but they will go on precisely because without them too many people would wake up to the real battle.
Listening to the 2GB interview linked above, Steggall – I suppose understandably given she’s a political novice – didn’t present too well for a 45-year-old barrister. If she’s to beat Abbott she needs to play him at his own game by really going for the jugular from time to time, and be fully informed of her signature policy, climate change abatement. Abbott will not go down without one massive fight; for he expects to be the next LOTO.
or at any other inconvenient time.”…
What does that mean?
Maybe Abbott will invite Howard down to Manly Beach to share a paddle board while launching his re-election campaign
Lizzie
For pathology tests, this is precisely the problem that the myhealth record is trying to address. Prior to myhealth records the test results only went to your GP who referred you. Now they are both posted on the myhealthrecord and sent to your GP. In the former case, where your GP can’t find them then you can only retreive them through the pathology lab. With the myhealth record they won’t be lost.
Further, if your GP is writing incorrect references, they are going to be sent to specialists regardless of whether there is a myhealth record or not. The only difference is that you are now aware of the issues because you readily have access to your records.
I would suggest that you speak to your GP and get them to correct any errors, as even without a myhealth record these errors may be sent in any referral.
phoenixRED @ #456 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 12:33 pm
Telling.
phoenixRED @ #478 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:33 pm
Guadio also has:
Germany, France and Australia
phoenixRED
The Koreans would have a very long list of historic grudges against the Japanese. At the same time as that spat there have been moves from Japan to settle the post WWII dispute between Russia and Japan over some islands. I wonder if it is a coincidence that the ratchet up and ratchet down are happening at the same time ?
Japan’s Shinzo Abe says will push for peace treaty with Russia
Japanese PM hopes for deal with Vladimir Putin to end 70-year-old dispute over four islands at an upcoming summit.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/japan-shinzo-abe-push-peace-treaty-russia-190104070234330.html
It is so juvenile for a senior government MP like Joyce to harp on about “the Left” or “the Right”. Those are student politics terms that have almost no relevance to real policy debate in any country.
Senior government members are supposed to be governing for all Australians. Even if you’re the most partisan hack on the government benches, act like a leader, act sober, act statesperson-like and talk from a position of calm seriousness. Your studiousness is what makes non-government actors look bad. You have the effing weight of respectability on your side.
I feel this is government 101 and that the current mob have really failed at it. Dismal.
‘act sober’
Well there’s your problem with Mr Joyce straight up, Luke. 😀
Can anyone answer this :
To opt out of myhealthrecord we had to supply ALL sorts of data – as well as such standard things like name, DOB, address etc etc but also including unique things like driver licence number, medicare number etc etc – that all must go to some database somewhere so that it does not get included in myhealthrecords
So what if some hacker gets into THAT database ?????
Agree Ratsak,
Anyway, I enjoy conjecture more than ALP-GRN whack-a-mole boredom. Political opponents don’t stand still, so what would be the quickest way to re-build the L-NP?
Say Bishop hangs around, and Banks, Phelps and Steggall all win. Then when they recontest the Liberal leadership Bishop puts her hand up with a platform to bring the independents into the party. If she could get Murdoch’s backing that would be a formidable start. Women problems fixed straight off.
Then the nutter’s all complain, but because they are not hamstrung, like Turnbull was, by being in government, the party (with some arm twisting from Murdoch) says “Fine! Piss-off”. If the economy is weak and they maintain business happy policy, and start collecting some good candidates, with Murdoch’s backing they might be very formidable come the next election.
In case I wasn’t clear this is intended as pure conjecture for my amusement.
Again, I severely doubt Abbott attacking Steggall will do him one whit of good.
He’s on the nose precisely because people are thoroughly sick of the bastard and his attack dog nonsense.
Neither will coming across as a little bit unpolished hurt Zali.
This is an asymmetric battle. The more Abbott attacks her the more people will be well disposed to her (which is why I don’t think Abbott will go hard at all – which also neutralises his biggest strength). The less Steggall looks like a p0lished performer the more she comes across as ‘authentic’.
This is a terribly difficult battle for Abbott. The indie candidate seekers in Warringah have done their job exceptionally well. He really can’t attack her without coming across as a barely repressed violent misgynistic bastard (which is one of his big negatives), and the only real points of policy difference she is offering are on climate and asylum seekers (which is the other big negative to the target voters). Abbott really doesn’t have the tools to fight this. Basically he just needs to hope that more than 50% of the voters in Warringah really would vote for an ashtray if it was the endorsed Liberal candidate.
With every man and his dog knowing this government is going down, I don’t think he’s going to get that lucky and more than enough will vote to send a message to the Liberals that they need reform.
Oh, and the whole “money for footage of distressed animals” “scandal” is so convoluted. But then of course it has to be because they’re trying to route around the massive 99% of the real issue which is living animals in our care dying in horrible agony for profit due to the mismanagement of the industry by, principally, the Nationals led by Barnaby Joyce and supported by News Corp.
Steggall won’t direct preferences.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/28/zali-steggall-says-she-wont-direct-preferences-as-she-makes-pitch-to-replace-abbott
phoenixRED @ #466 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 3:52 pm
It may not have been stored – just used to access existing government databases to check you are who you said you were. But in any case, the key point is that all that information is already stored in other databases, so you have probably already lost control of it. Don’t add your private health records to that mess.
BTW: Here an article by a doctor about why he decided to opt out of MyHealthRecord …
http://medicalrepublic.com.au/opting-myhealthrecord-now/15824
It discusses many of the key issues.
C@tmomma @ #409 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:46 pm
Absolutely. No one should underestimate Joyce, he is a consummate politician. He fought his way to leadership of the Nationals, and if re-elected in NE he will probably do it again.
On the hustings, he is articulate and plausible (plausible until, to me, he starts talking about coal fired electricity plants in a positive way, but I suspect I am in the minority in his audience).
If no significant and suitable other candidate (someone with national party affiliations, if not a member) emerges, he will win NE again.
poroti says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 3:48 pm
I wonder if it is a coincidence that the ratchet up and ratchet down are happening at the same time ?
****************************************************************
I thought the same thing Poroti !!!
I see the China, Korea, Japan dispute over islands and seas as a tinderbox just waiting to explode – and the Americans are not helping by provocatively ( in purpose ??? ) sailing ships into disputed areas and flying bombers over the areas in dispute … just a matter of time till we have another *Gulf Of Tonkin* incident/false flag eruption of hotheads
I thought Steve Price was almost gentle with her, compared to some of the hectoring interviews he and his colleagues do with people they perceive as their opponents.
C@tmomma says:
When Barnyard uses the word act he means …….
GG @2:49
“I think the Nats problem is they can’t help falling in love with ewes!”
Saying ‘ewes’: is that referring to ‘us over here’, or to females in fleecy coats?
Gippslander says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 4:02 pm
GG @2:49
“I think the Nats problem is they can’t help falling in love with ewes!”
Saying ‘ewes’: is that referring to ‘us over here’, or to females in fleecy coats?
*************************************************
In Barnaby country – where men are men and sheep are nervous ….
What are you intimating Barney? That it is OK for the USA to interfere in yet another country’s domestic affairs!
poroti @ #418 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:52 pm
Yes, that’s it!
You just can’t believe anything you see, hear or read these days, can you?
Except for PB, of course. Our credentials are impeccable. 🙂
The not directing prefs thing is a little interesting. I’d probably advise to have a htv with Abbott in front of the ALP and Greens as per Phelps. But perhaps that’s just me being over cautious. Steggall has better Lib cred than Phelps and she’s up against the bete noir direct rather than just by proxy as in Wentworth, so she doesn’t need to go as far to counter any Labor Stooge accusations.
It doesn’t matter because her prefs won’t be distributed, but you can’t come out and say that of course. Still this ‘let the voters choose’ has a (very) slight potential of diverting attention and creating confusion that a simple htv preferencing the Libs and moving on wouldn’t.
Very very unlikely to be significant at all, but interesting to people who are interested by such things…
I think it was a good move, if you want her type of blue to win, if she is a dyed in the wool trickle down, inequality champion as it seems she is, she is already liberal enough, it is the fake independent she is weak in.
I thought Steve Price was almost gentle with her, compared to some of the hectoring interviews he and his colleagues do with people they perceive as their opponents.
Leftist feminists are fair game.
Nice successful young ladies of impeccable breeding? Well chivalry’s not dead ‘Fess.
Sceptic @3.39:
An “incovenient time”for the NSW election would be if the fourth Saturday in March was Easter Saturday.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-28/zali-steggall-faces-uphill-battle-against-abbott-in-warringah/10755608
I guess working in her favour is an army of volunteers, low expectations, and that the Liberals are both broke, and evidenced by recent by-elections, find it hard to come by volunteer effort.
And Abbott drawing Morrison into the campaign will just remind voters that he acted in concert with Dutton to knife Turnbull, one of the primary reasons voters are lined up with baseball bats waiting for polling day. Rock, meet hard place!
For Steggall there is the recent precedent of strategic voting in Wentworth. She doesn’t have to say anything, just let others suggest it for her. Abbot will do the rest.
WWP,
So long as she doesn’t come out spruiking for Adani, a new coal power station and brutalising refugee children for sport I don’t think she needs to say a think to improve the ‘fake indie’ cred. Her name’s not Anthony Abbott – every voter that couldn’t bring themselves to vote for him last time will have her higher on their preference list. Most at no.1.
Like Phelps, she needs to pull about 10% out of his primary.
That’s the battle.
Ah yes, an important distinction.
Rhona Eastment
@bensab3
Jan 27
Gina Rinehart company revealed as $4.5m donor to climate sceptic thinktank | Business | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/21/gina-rinehart-company-revealed-as-45m-donor-to-climate-sceptic-thinktank
ratsak (AnonBlock)
Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:21 pm
Thank you. That is one of the hopeful best and reasoned ideas I’ve seen in the last few days. If the Liberals won’t allow themselves to be saved there is only one other option, extinction. And it will take years for a new brand to be built. I’m with Question now, looking towards 2022.
Josh Butler
Verified account @JoshButler
1m1 minute ago
Josh Butler Retweeted WIN News Illawarra
so the Nationals will run a candidate in Gilmore, taking on Warren Mundine who is running for the Liberals, with former NSW MP Katrina Hodgkinson putting her name forward
Did everyone see the superior Russian Military hardware in action over the weekend?
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1078482/russia-news-latest-bomber-fighter-jet-crash-military-tupolev-tu-22m3-backfire-video
Nathan A
Thanks for the advice. 🙂
sprocket_ (Block)
Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:47 pm
I believe it’s also a recognised technique for shifting the Overton Window, and is used by both sides of the spectrum. Though I can’t recall what the technique is called.
Here we go ……. usual Trump distraction or lets have regime change to protect OUR OIL shipments to the US ????
‘Hawkish’ Trump asked Lindsey Graham if he should deploy the military to Venezuela
President Donald Trump reportedly “mused” about possibly deploying American military to Venezuela.
The country is suffering a huge crisis as a far-right President Nicolás Maduro proclaimed victory when the country disputes opposition Leader Juan Guaidó’s claim to the presidency.
According to Axios, Graham recalled his conversation with Trump from a few weeks ago.
“He [Trump] said, ‘What do you think about using military force?’” Graham said. “And I said, ‘Well, you need to go slow on that, that could be problematic.’ And he said, ‘Well, I’m surprised, you want to invade everybody.’”
Graham, who is known for being hawkish, said that he laughed and admitted he doesn’t’ want to “invade everybody.”
“I only want to use the military when our national security interests are threatened.’”
Yet, when Graham described Trump, he called the president “hawkish,” when it comes to Venezuela, even more so than Graham.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/hawkish-trump-asked-lindsey-graham-deploy-military-venezuela/
Gina Rinehart company revealed as $4.5m donor to climate sceptic thinktank | Business | The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/21/gina-rinehart-company-revealed-as-45m-donor-to-climate-sceptic-thinktank
_________
And they reckon unions are crook!
Tony Abbott doing his granite-jawed, resolute leader impression again, I see. 😆