Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:
• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.
• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.
Question @ #382 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:12 pm
Sorry ❗
I have lately reconnected with my boyhood RAAF mates. Another destination for my (so called) prose.
PB is not all that mean –
Oh ❗ All right then ❗
ALP 60 LNP 40
There —- my friends — regardless of the magnetic poles locations, the photo shown a few minutes ago reveals how Mr. Abbott stops his brain exploding. If only it were duct tape then Mr. Trump may want to build a wall against Orstraya to guard against duct taped and (some other weird shit) bandits in southern caravans hell bent on penetrating decent Elephant lovers.
Excellent prize for the first to decipher the above. 🏆
If I was Stokes / Murdoch / Forrest / Rhinehart I’d be funding something a lot less organic and a lot more reliable to replace the libs.
Cory Bernardi isn’t likely to hold his Senate seat in 2022 and then his party (whatever it’s called) will go the way of PUP when its leader lost his seat.
Seeing him on TV has a fingernail-blackboard affect on my wife.
His name is rhyming slang.
Confessions @ #400 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:35 pm
And Family First after Bob Day pulled his funding, post being booted from the Senate.
Yep, ever since Greg the Lying Hunt set his gigantic goon onto a little old lady Green (wonder if it was the 4′ 11″ candidate?), who was protesting his Environment policies outside a meeting in his electorate, a goon, moreover, who didn’t even mind being filmed doing it (!), I have always known what his true colours were like.
He could have called off his goon, but he was likely the one who sicked him onto her.
Drums are beating about the BeetRooters antics when still a Minister/DPM.
Could be the Elvis Impersonating has given MickMack idea that’s ‘It’s Now or Never’
sprocket
Have you a link to this?
I was wondering if the ‘sickening pornographic memes’ were about Melissa Price herself!?!
You can superimpose someone’s head onto porn with computers these days. (I read about it on a tech site 😉 ).
sprocket_
Thingamebob Whatsisname will be outside Barnyard’s office singing ‘You ain’t nothing but a hound dog’
C@t:
Them too.
So, breaking it down:
– Steggall is going to give Abbott a run for his money, and could win in Warringah
– Likewise Banks in Flinders
– GetUp is doing its best to take care of Andrews
– Natural attrition will see off the cross-bench riff raff in the Senate, incl Bernardi
– Labor to give Higgins a red hot go
How can we see Abetz off?
lizzie @ #406 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:43 pm
He’s not incompetent at all. He’s been very, very successful doing what he does, which is tilting the balance firmly in favour of his donors and supporters in agribusiness and mining.
Lizzie, here is the BeetRooter in full cry.. but as MickMack would sing ‘Suspicious Minds’..
“There is no umpire in the political debate. There’s no rule book. What you get away with wins.
The debate is boring in the middle so the one you hear is on the edge of the bell curve. Debate at the middle of the bell curve is arguing the colour of the kitchen; it is inconsequential to the construction of the house.
The Labor Party’s tactics now are to stay in the middle, but it will still be the preference beneficiary of those shrieking on the far Left. This is a consequence of compulsory preferential voting.
Every time the far Left fails on one front, such as the cash-for-cruelty campaign where anti-sheep export activists offered money to workers on ships for film of distressed animals, they open another — this time animal activists’ Aussie Farms website, a direct attack on farmers, their families and homes.”
https://outline.com/rNz3KS
Upnorth @ #228 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:09 am
Yes, I think you are crazy!
The more socially progressive Liberals that stand up to challenge the RWFW in the party as independents the better.
We need a circuit breaker in craziness and instability that the RWFW are responsible for and if the Party is not going to stand up to it, then I guess these independents represent the best response we have.
When I was lurking recently I skimmed over some stuff about the Nat’s trying to dump Barnaby.
Was this a thing? Or just a wishful interpretation I made when I had things to do and was skimming?
Thanks sprocket. Drivel squared!
I think the Nats problem is they can’t help falling in love with ewes!
Tonight I am making a Chicken, Eggplant, Lentil and Vegetable Moussaka, with 3 Cheeses and a cheeky Bechamel Sauce.
#UberHomeEatsonPB
KayJay, the tape on Abbott’s head has usually been attributed to circumscision scars.
C@t
If you want scary possibilities check out ‘Deep Fake’ technology.
Fake Obama created using AI video tool – BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmUC4m6w1wo
A mix Vlad,Trump..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttGUiwfTYvg
Well… looks like Morrison thinks things will improve, May 11/18 here we come.
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 2:48 pm
Upnorth @ #228 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:09 am
Crazy as it seems I kind of want Abbott to win his seat, close result but no Cigar for the closet Lib Steggall…………………..
Yes, I think you are crazy!
———————————————————————————-
Barney I resemble that comment.
lizzie,
you asked earlier about the possible Senate make up after the election.
KB did this piece recently looking the possibility of a Labor-Green majority in the Senate.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/01/what-are-prospects-for-labor-green.html
Upnorth @ #414 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:53 am
😆
lizzie @ #405 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:43 pm
Try this …
https://outline.com/rNz3KS
How very Trump-like 🙁
Thanks Barney. 🙂
Banking royal commission: ALP urges instant release of Hayne report ahead of timing statement.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/banking-royal-commission/banking-royal-commission-josh-frydenberg-to-shed-light-on-release-of-final-report-by-tomorrow/news-story/2789149c4493fa32a3fa7fca3dc3a973
https://outline.com/unrDDb
I have found an extension for Firefox which is another bow (maybe arrow) to assist in defongerating The Australian items.
The sun is sinking low Lorena.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0cdmHXWYr8
A potted history of our Continent since 1788.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1087708395287658496
G’day
An important change in the approach to drugs. Time forDaniel Andrews to be more like Daley. The courts are speaking.
jhttps://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/completely-changed-judges-free-not-to-jail-minor
https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/8233781/five-thing-keep-away-vagina/
Vicks Vaporub and glitter bomb! 😮
Zali Steggall stood up to Steve Price with conviction
https://www.2gb.com/olympian-launches-challenge-to-tony-abbott-with-personal-attack/
poroti
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 2:52 pm
C@t
If you want scary possibilities check out ‘Deep Fake’ technology.
Fake Obama created using AI video tool – BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmUC4m6w1wo
A mix Vlad,Trump..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttGUiwfTYvg
___________________________________
Poroti, 1987’s The Running Man predicted this technology. They doctored the footage of Arnold Schwarzenegger being a hero into the evil ‘Butcher of Bakersfield’. 🙂
Regarding Venezuela, it’s not just the US recognising the opposition leader as interim President.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-president-protest-guaido-maduro-1.4989733
Confessions says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 2:58 pm
OVER the last few months a number of bizarre vagina trends have been doing the rounds.
So as a quick reminder, here are the five things you should definitely keep away from your bits.
You have been warned
************************************************************************
The Washcloth
I was due for an appointment with the gynecologist
later in the week.
Early one morning, I received a call from the doctor’s
office to tell me that I had been rescheduled for that morning at
9:30 am. I had only just packed everyone off to work and school, and it
was already around 8:45am. The trip to his office took about 35 minutes,
so I didn’t have any time to spare.
As most women do, I like to take a little extra effort over hygiene
when making such visits, but this time I wasn’t going to be able to
make the full effort. So, I rushed upstairs, threw off my pajamas, wet
the washcloth that was sitting next to the sink, and gave myself a
quick wash in ‘that area’ to make sure I was at least presentable. I
threw th e washcloth in the clothes basket, donned some clothes,
hopped in the car and raced to my appointment.
I was in the waiting room for only a few minutes when I was called in.
Knowing the procedure, as I’m sure you do, I hopped up on the table,
looked over at the other side of the room and pretended that I was in
Paris or some other place a million miles away.
I was a little surprised when the doctor said, ‘My, we have made an extra effort this
morning, haven’t we?’
I didn’t respond.
After the appointment, I heaved a sigh of relief and went home. The
rest of the day was normal …. some shopping, cleaning, cooking.
After school when my 6-year-old daughter was playing, she called out
from the bathroom, ‘Mommy, where’s my washcloth?’
I told her to get another one from the cupboard.
She replied, ‘No, I need the one that was here by the sink, it had all
my glitter and sparkles saved inside it.’
Never going back to that doctor.
Ever.
Afternoon all, from earlier posts, on Steggal and Phelps being ‘far right’.
Remember Abbott refers to himself as ‘centre right’. Turnbull was of course ‘left’.
This is all about framing the argument, painting yourself as the centre and your opponents as ‘extreme’. For credibility is is important to use the correct term.
Given Phelps and the other cross benchers have said they are supporting this government in confidence motions, despite how much of a shambles they are, and given that Steggal is strongly against tax changes we can term her and most of the cross bench not as ‘centre’ or ‘centre right’, but firmly ‘right wing’.
Abbott is of course to the right of this, and in a distinction that may not mean much, Hanson is further to the right of Abbott.
I am not going to try to put Morrison anywhere, populist (to his base) possibly but nowhere on a spectrum that is meaningful.
nath
Looks like we got there 7 years early.
Dog’s Breakfast @ #416 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:51 pm
Do tell ❗
PB is the home of master historians wot know lots of stuff.
I will attempt to interrupt my daughter’s information flow next Thursday (day release for a couple of hours) to update her with this useful tidbit. I rate my chances about 5%.
Thank you. 😵
Barney in Go Dau says:
Indeed, it also includes their lackeys,poodles and lap dogs.
Some of the more Conservative types may defect to Cory Bernardi’s team of merry Conservatives. Some might join One Nation.
Only the truly mad ones will decamp. The crazies haven’t worked so hard to take over a ‘party of government’ to just abandon ship and throw their lot in with fringe nutters. If they wanted to be impotent they could have stayed in the fringes all along.
No, these guys are on a mission from God. They had a sweet little deal going where the small-ls gave them cover and power to push their agendas in exchange for some tax cuts and spending cuts (which was hardly a burden for them at all).
They have powerful (or at least loud) supporting voices in the media and a good solid grip on the membership. They just need to get the wets back under the cosh and subservient (like Malcolm was, why did we get rid of that useful idiot anyway?) and everything will be sweet again.
The ‘moderate’ (sic) Libs won’t get ‘their’ party back easily. They just aren’t zealous enough I suspect. But the question will be how many might try to start again with a new vehicle(s) and how many will just follow their spirit guide Phillip Ruddock and suck up the humiliations for a piece of lolly.
phoenixRed:
LOL I’ve heard that one before.
shellbell:
She did very well standing up to Steve Price.
poroti @ #431 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:08 am
i’m not Canada can be described in that way.
Shellbell 2:58,
She is a confident speaker. Thanks for the link.
How can we see Abetz off?
You can’t.
He’ll go at a time of his own choosing unless the Liberal vote in Tasmania falls into single digits.
y
KayJay @ #3897 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:30 pm
Yay KJ! Go you good thing!
This timid wombat will regress towards the mean…put me down for 55:45 please LR.
Barney in Go Dau
The canucks know who they have to please if they want to keep their economy looking nice.
Confessions says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 3:11 pm
phoenixRed:
LOL I’ve heard that one before.
*************************************
oldie but a goodie 🙂
shellbell @ #429 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:58 pm
Her Legal background and Public speaking experience (as an Olympic Medal Winner) certainly stood her in good stead in that interview. She’s indicated she won’t be accepting the usual Right wing spin on Climate change and asylum seekers and easily deflected Price’s verballing attempts. All up, pretty good. She will need to get her lines straight asap re her policy intentions. But, she has only launched her Campaign.