Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders

Seat polls show Labor with their nose in front in one seat where they won by a whisker in 2016, and another where they haven’t won in since 1983.

Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:

• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.

• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders”

  1. by attacking her, Dean will have helped Steggall.

    Nah, not helping, not hindering. It’s like the old joke about when something happens in the cricket a billion Chinese people don’t know or care.

    When Rowan Dean says anything about Steggall (or anything else) 100,000 voters in Warringah neither know nor care.

  2. >Why would you assume it is an “either-or” situation?

    You have x amount of resources.

    If you spend some of that on gas then those resources can no longer be spent on renewables.

    It is a pretty clear “either-or” situation for each of the resources in question.

  3. I just love the PB junta’s double think re Venezuela and the US. Alleged Russian interference in US political affairs, is bad, BUT US interference in Venezuelan political affairs is quite okay apparently. Logic deficit syndrome at work.

  4. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    1m1 minute ago

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 40 (-2) Disapprove 47 (+2) #auspol
    0 replies 5 retweets 6 likes
    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (+2) ALP 38 (-3) GRN 9 (0) ON 6 (-1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    29s30 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 37 (+1) Disapprove 50 (-1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    31s32 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 43 (-1) Shorten 36 (0) #auspol
    0 replies 2 retweets 1 like

  5. “Why should we spend the resources to build a gas generator when we could instead spend the same resources on a renewable project?”

    I’m a little both ways on this argument. 🙁 There may be an argument for gas in the short term, i probably would have agreed with that a couple of years ago.

    However, battery tech and the scale on which it can be produced is moving really fast. I think we are either now in, or soon will be in, a situation where the economies of scale on battery production are going to make themselves felt. Got to be people considering current production plants and how they can be adapted to keep producing as the tech changes.

    And, that’s a VERY good situation for Australia. Lithium and Graphene we have in fairly large amounts. Combined with the HUGE potential for solar sucking the ergs out of the sky, and the stuff CSIRO have been doing on hydrogen relevant catalysts (well done Shorten on that announcement in QLD 🙂 ) there is the potential for us to be a seriously major world energy producer over a 30-50 year timescale. Will dwarf what we make from coal.

  6. Thank God you’ve given up the invective tonight, GG – at least I think you have. Start on me, and you’ll be repaid threefold, notwithstanding your allies. You’ve made an idiot of yourself tonight by failing to recognise the significance of quotation marks. I’m not prepared to post the instant podcast – that’s a matter for you. By the way – I shouldn’t – how’s the DLP going in Vic(?). Until the next bout, tubbs.

  7. Nothing to see here. the Tories were always going to make gains over the summer when the disengaged are even more so. I’ll bet that many haven’t even caught up the Darling River crisis yet. Once the news cycle goes back to normal, we will see further erosion of the Tory vote up until the election. However in saying that, I think it will recover to about 53 – 47 by the time of the election.

  8. imacca
    I’ve seen a couple of storage projects, but they are not large. Solar and wind farms, more solar, more windfarms. They are popping up like mushrooms.
    The 500 KV line from Melbourne to Portland is going to become a wind farm backbone. I will bet they never foresaw that when they built it.
    The Murray link will get built; that will give diverse routes to SA.
    There will be Transmisison line to renewable resources in NSW and Queensland.
    As to storage, my bet is on a second link to Tasmania landing at Portland to give a diverse route and all out development of Tasi hydro; pump storage the lot.
    People know where the lines have to be built now, as the applications for connection are in. There are maps around that show it all.

  9. Psyclaw @ #775 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:27 pm

    That guy tweets that Ms Steggall has wiped her Facebook history, and some bright spark on PB says this is “stalky”.

    What hyperbowl. What BS. What a massacre of the current (and valuable) accepted meaning of “stalking”.

    What the hell have you been smoking!?!

    Now, follow the bouncing ball, psyclaw. I said it seems ‘stalky’, a word which I made up on the spot, so shoot me already for affecting your delicate sensibilities about the English language, when a friend of an ultra conservative Liberal firebrand, Ruddick, had been following but not interacting with Zali Steggall on facebook for years. Then, when she does what most serious candidates are told to do these days and wipes her social media clean, he runs to his mate to tell him all about it.

    Sounds as if they were stalking her to me.

  10. C@tmomma @ #910 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:07 pm

    Psyclaw @ #775 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:27 pm

    That guy tweets that Ms Steggall has wiped her Facebook history, and some bright spark on PB says this is “stalky”.

    What hyperbowl. What BS. What a massacre of the current (and valuable) accepted meaning of “stalking”.

    What the hell have you been smoking!?!

    Now, follow the bouncing ball, psyclaw. I said it seems ‘stalky’, a word which I made up on the spot, so shoot me already for affecting your delicate sensibilities about the English language, when a friend of an ultra conservative Liberal firebrand, Ruddick, had been following but not interacting with Zali Steggall on facebook for years. Then, when she does what most serious candidates are told to do these days and wipes her social media clean, he runs to his mate to tell him all about it.

    Sounds as if they were stalking her to me.

    I’d shoot you momma. Only, you never stay in the one position long enough for me to take aim!

  11. “Nothing to see here. the Tories were always going to make gains over the summer when the disengaged are even more so. I’ll bet that many haven’t even caught up the Darling River crisis yet. Once the news cycle goes back to normal, we will see further erosion of the Tory vote up until the election. However in saying that, I think it will recover to about 53 – 47 by the time of the election.”

    Probably right on all counts Clem, and if it was an old hand at the LNP tiller like Howard when facing an enviable defeat in the face, I’d say you’d be 100% on the money.

    However, I have a nagging feeling that ScoMo and his omnishambles of a governemnt could well take the late swing the other way. Especially if they go back to parliament and the economy tanks between the recent bullish MEYFO and the actual budget. And ScoMo keeps having captains call brain farts. All of which are distinctly possible.

  12. Buzzfeed UK going down:

    Daniel Drepper
    ‏Verified account @danieldrepper
    2m2 minutes ago

    Daniel Drepper Retweeted Mark Di Stefano

    So sorry for everyone at BuzzFeed UK who has to leave. The team has done unbelievably great work in the past and has been an inspiration for us here at BuzzFeed Germany. All other media organisations in the UK, you should feel lucky to have the chance to hire these people.

  13. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/01/28/newspoll-reachtel-51-49-labor-herbert-flinders/comment-page-19/#comment-3060210

    Disagreeing with Russia backing Trump but being less than opposed to US support for the opposition in Venezuela is not double-think. It is treating each situation based on its merits, rather than being a reflexive supporter of badly run governments just because they don`t like the USA.

    Russia`s right-wing authoritarian government is a far more negative where it is of great influence than the USA is where it is of significant influence. Russia sides with the far-right in Europe and the USA, with a few left-wingers distracted by the left-wing elements of the long gone Soviet Union and various discontents with the USA and EU unwisely supporting Russia, to further its aims of weakening democracies that are its competitors. Russia domestically is also non-democratic and quite brutal, in a way that the EU and even USA are not, especially in Chechnya.

    Venezuela is falling apart, mostly at the fault of the current government who have mismanaged the economy (particularly PDVSA, the main source of revenue). The sanctions have not helped, however they are not the root cause of the economic problems.

  14. Mavis Smith @ #907 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:00 pm

    Thank God you’ve given up the invective tonight, GG – at least I think you have. Start on me, and you’ll be repaid threefold, notwithstanding your allies. You’ve made an idiot of yourself tonight by failing to recognise the significance of quotation marks. I’m not prepared to post the instant podcast – that’s a matter for you. By the way – I shouldn’t – how’s the DLP going in Vic(?). Until the next bout, tubbs.

    Mavis,

    Just remind GG that he stated on here that the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse was unjustified and, “a populist witch-hunt”. He also believes that Cardinal Pell is an honourable man. The abuse he has spewed at me has been foul and deranged. The man has deep seated problems, but in his favour, he also has lots of trailing commissions.

  15. I think I will volunteer as a scrutineer now. That ought to be a fun evening for ALP scrutineers in about 100 seats.

    Oh, put me down for 100 seats in the sweep, please.

  16. Lovely shot of the buffoon.

    But…Back on the coup in Venezuela. Good to see the DLPers endorsing the removal of an annoying socialist government by foreign intervention. Allende was a bad boy had to go, Gough well dunno how much it was just his ego that stuffed it up and how much was US influence, but yea had to go. Every independence movement since 1950, yea bad boys, send in the paratroops.

  17. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/01/28/newspoll-reachtel-51-49-labor-herbert-flinders/comment-page-19/#comment-3060286

    Venezuela is falling apart because the government has botched the economy. It is also not being achieved, at least so far, by military coup.

    The coup against Allende was totally unjustified. It was also partly caused by the Presidential system, an inherently unstable system that started in the USA and has spread around the Americas because on the influence of the US model upon the writers on the constitution of nations of the Americas in the 19th Century, with its excessive separation of the executive and legislative branches.

    Gough should not have been sacked. 2 extra years of Whitlam ALP government would have been good.

  18. Mavis,

    [‘Just remind GG that he stated on here that the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse was unjustified and, “a populist witch-hunt”. He also believes that Cardinal Pell is an honourable man. The abuse he has spewed at me has been foul and deranged. The man has deep seated problems, but in his favour, he also has lots of trailing commissions.’]

    Look, mate, without assistance, GG is of the Catholic-Right, defending viracously those who’ve sexually abused. He can’t come to terms of with the fact that Catholic clergy interfered with the young. GG has lessons to learn.

  19. @deniseshrivell
    8m8 minutes ago

    Disgraceful, one sided report on cashless welfare card on @BreakfastNews Indue brand deliberately covered up when showing card – zero mention of card costing $10k each with money to private provider – or evidence of hardship on users #Auspol

  20. I know it’s very very early days but I think I am watching the next President of the US. Her name is Kamala Harris. A woman of colour and a high profile California Senator.
    She’s at a town hall Q and A. Reminds me of a young Bill Clinton and Barack. Charasmatic, sharp and passionate.
    It will be a big field probably including the wonderful Joe Biden. But I think she’s the future. We’ll see.

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