Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders

Seat polls show Labor with their nose in front in one seat where they won by a whisker in 2016, and another where they haven’t won in since 1983.

Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:

• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.

• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders”

  1. Late Riser @ #829 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:17 pm

    A high profile independent candidate, Oliver Yates, is expected to run against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg

    Yates, who lives in the electorate, is a member of the Liberal party

    Can you be a Liberal party member and run against an incumbent?

    No. According to the report he will most likely be expelled from the Liberal party. I doubt he’s crying about it though 🙂

  2. Henry says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 9:27 pm
    Zali Steggall is a “hard left, hard green” candidate according to that brilliant analyst on sky, Rowan Dean.

    This is clearly not an opinion shared by the punters of Warringah. However, by attacking her, Dean will have helped Steggall. He’s endorsing her credentials as a reformer, though certainly without intending to.

  3. frednk @ #828 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:14 pm

    Hyper inflation with no extra activity. If the resources are is use and you want to do something else you have to cancel projects.

    And pray what resources are those?

    Please do remember that our pipeline system is now pretty much fully utilized. First step would be the building of import terminal in Victoria. Hundreds of megawatts of wind farms are under construction. Do we cancel that? It’s your dream you get to be the dictator in this game, you decide.

    Really? You think you would have to cancel wind farm projects to build a pipeline? Or a gas terminal? What exactly do you think the limiting resource is? Engineers? Tradesmen? Ditch diggers? Truck drivers? Shipping clerks? Public relations officers? Traffic police?

    I’m interested in your low opinion of our capabilities. The Snowy Hydro 2.0 plan must have you utterly petrified!

  4. GG:

    [“Fuck off dickhead”.]

    That says it all. You’ve lost the argument.

    I say again, do your own homework, perhaps by reference to RN tomorrow, but after you sober up.

  5. Found it! Thanks for the prompts. 😉

    This week, Liberal Party member Oliver Yates will announce his independent candidacy for Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong – which under party rules will automatically trigger his expulsion.

  6. For all the people who say we should go gas on the way to renewables I have one question.

    Why should we spend the resources to build a gas generator when we could instead spend the same resources on a renewable project?

  7. [‘And, like most of the sleazy slurs thrown against you on PB, totally untrue!’]

    I make no apologies. I play as hardball as you, your satellites.

    And, please stop playing the victim – poor dear.

  8. P1
    You clearly have no idea as to what is required to put these large projects together, and I am sure you are to smart to learn.

    You gas dream lives on as a dream. I suppose it trumps a nuclear dream..

  9. Catprog @ #859 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:32 pm

    For all the people who say we should go gas on the way to renewables I have one question.

    Why should we spend the resources to build a gas generator when we could instead spend the same resources on a renewable project?

    Why would you assume it is an “either-or” situation? Let’s face it – for both of these types of project we would probably import all the technical stuff – the main thing we provide is the grunt labour. Do we have a shortage of that?

  10. Catprog @ #859 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:32 pm

    For all the people who say we should go gas on the way to renewables I have one question.

    Why should we spend the resources to build a gas generator when we could instead spend the same resources on a renewable project?

    With better results.

    It’s like MT saying that we should build fibre to the node instead of doing it once, doing it right, and building fibre to the premises.

  11. Despite Oliver’s heroic efforts to pour as much shit on his erstwhile party in the media as possible, it really is stretching the meaning of ‘high profile’ to describe him as such.

    I’d love for someone to knock that pointless idiot Josh off before he ever actually achieves anything in politics, but I suspect Yates isn’t the man for the task. Not to worry though. It’s like Frydenberg is in any rush to break his achievement duck.

  12. briefly @ #850 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:30 pm

    Henry says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 9:27 pm
    Zali Steggall is a “hard left, hard green” candidate according to that brilliant analyst on sky, Rowan Dean.

    This is clearly not an opinion shared by the punters of Warringah. However, by attacking her, Dean will have helped Steggall. He’s endorsing her credentials as a reformer, though certainly without intending to.

    I think this will be the line the Abbottobods in the Liberal party and its media organs deploy when attacking her. Try to paint her as far left, some kind of Labor stooge.

    So far (and it’s early days), she has held up by using Abbott’s regressive yesteryear positions as a contrast to her own on AGW, renewable energy, social issues like SSM, and treatment of AS.

  13. frednk @ #862 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:36 pm

    P1
    You clearly have no idea as to what is required to put these large projects together, and I am sure you are to smart to learn.

    You gas dream lives on as a dream. I suppose it trumps a nuclear dream..

    So, you can’t actually identify which resources we might lack to do both?

    Thought not 🙁

  14. Warren Dean is reiterating the reasons why the Liberal Party has become unelectable even in its heartland distrcicts. They are completely out of touch with the people they suppose they hope to represent. These people will choose to be represented by someone. The choice they make will be for candidates outside the Liberal Party. Good.

  15. If Rowan Dean said it you know it’s bullshit.

    That imbecile makes Josh Frydenberg look like a complete dill. (which is as close to a genius as even Rowan Dean could make a fuckwit like Josh look)

  16. Despite Oliver’s heroic efforts to pour as much shit on his erstwhile party in the media as possible, it really is stretching the meaning of ‘high profile’ to describe him as such.

    If his candidacy means the Libs need to expend much-needed resources defending Frydenberg’s seat from a Liberal-lite indie challenge, then that’s okay with me!

  17. Mavis Smith @ #861 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:35 pm

    [‘And, like most of the sleazy slurs thrown against you on PB, totally untrue!’]

    I make no apologies. I play as hardball as you, your satellites.

    And, please stop playing the victim – poor dear.

    Sleazy little gobsmites like you are a periodic feature of PB and easily swatted away.

    I can’t guarantee your sanity if you continue this aggressive posturing.

    Poseurs like you are easily dealt with!


  18. Why should we spend the resources to build a gas generator when we could instead spend the same resources on a renewable project?

    Walking though a billion dollar stranded investment is quite an errie thing. The abandoned offices, maintenance manuals still in place, commissioning notes signed but never used. Jug in the corner, water long evaporated. I find it all so sad, they take a while to build, a large chunk of peoples lives wasted. I wonder if P1 has experienced it; and loves the feeling.

  19. “Any engineer with a power background is currently either specifying, building or commissioning renewable projects. ”

    Interesting frednk. Are the projects you are seeing ones with storage, batteries included in the mix????

    I have been seeing this power supply thing for the last couple of years as being headed well towards distributed renewable’s generation and storage, riding on a much improved distribution grid.

  20. Player One:

    [‘Sorry, I won’t be doing that. You should know me better by now.’]

    True, I have noted that you call a spade a spade. That said, this a personal thing between GG and me – a bully on PB, who can’t take it when he’s taken to task. I have a particular thing with someone who calls me a ‘slease’ when quoting from a radio program I was listening to tonight. But he didn’t call me that on the basis of informed argument, he referred to me as such to put me in the place he thinks I should be – we wish him the best of luck with that endeavour.

  21. The issue is, for seats like Kooyong, Warringah, is that Labor is not going to play there. They still need the chance to think they’re being economically sensible, which to them, means not Labor or the Greens. So, Indy candidates who best represent the balance between a mainstream right-of-centre economic approach and social liberalism will be strong.

    Higgins is slightly different, as it is probably closer to a Wentworth but with a stronger Labor/Green bent.

  22. Sky after dark is really a horror show.
    Tonight we have Pauline rambling incoherently from far NQ, the aforementioned Dean, blathering on about the climate change hoax, Richo, who seems heavily medicated and shouldn’t be in public view anymore and the only half sensible one, Janine Perrett, who spends much of her time rolling her eyes.
    Moderated by Paul Murray, as such.
    Richo and Dean have just spent the last 10 minutes shouting over the top of each other, which can’t be good for Richos health.

  23. Confessions says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 9:38 pm

    Dean – an archetypal RW vocalist – has also just insulted the hundreds of supporters that Steggall has already enlisted. They will fight all the harder for it. By attacking the rebels, Dean is in fact encouraging even more rebellion, though doubtless without intending to. Dean is campaigning for Lib-split. Excellent.

  24. P1
    I really can’t be bothered. If you have to ask then you don’t have the background for me to explain. I’d have to start with the basics and it takes a while to get from there to explaining how large projects are put together.

  25. GG:

    [‘Sleazy little gobsmites like you are a periodic feature of PB and easily swatted away.’]

    You really are a pissant. I’ve posted herein longer than you’d be pleased to know. As I said, get off the piss, settle, and become a reasonable human being – wait a bit!

  26. Around 7pm the experts could just say Australia just voted out a very bad government and then call it a night.

    Where’s the fun in that?

    I’m going to want to revel in it. I want to see their tiny little hearts breaking. I want to see their tiny little minds exploding.

    And then I want the four part series where they all dish shit on each other and blame the others for what a fucking disaster they were.

  27. frednk @ #883 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:48 pm

    P1
    I really can’t be bothered. If you have to ask then you don’t have the background for me to explain. I’d have to start with the basics and it takes a while to get from there to explaining how large projects are put together.

    I think I may actually know more about this than you do. But keep flailing – it’s kind of amusing.

  28. ratsak @ #865 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:37 pm

    Despite Oliver’s heroic efforts to pour as much shit on his erstwhile party in the media as possible, it really is stretching the meaning of ‘high profile’ to describe him as such.

    I’d love for someone to knock that pointless idiot Josh off before he ever actually achieves anything in politics, but I suspect Yates isn’t the man for the task. Not to worry though. It’s like Frydenberg is in any rush to break his achievement duck.

    Josh’s problem in Kooyong is that he’s not very communicative with or interested in working with anyone outside his immediate circle of supporters.

    This means there is not a lot of Member support when the spaghetti hits the fan when for candidates like Frydenberg suddenly find that politics is not just swanning around in a safe seat.

    My guess is that Josh will get the scare of his life and will probably go into headless chicken mode about a week or so from polling day when the threat of his political career imploding before his eyes becomes a confirmed reality.

  29. Hope this encourages Morrison to have a March 9th election just to rid of him and his cohorts.

    Anyway, if he doesn’t, then the return of Parliament is now almost certain to be followed by a worsening in Newspoll, which will reinforce how hopeless the government is.

  30. I can’t help wondering where the next Lib-split will occur. Wentworth, Mayo, Indi, Chisholm…. Warringah, Flinders, Kooyong….there will likely be several more….

  31. Story of the geologist reminds me of when I was a tacker at the field Nat’s. Someone brought a grey rock with a crosshatch pattern – from Werribee Gorge.
    Expert palaeontologist – “that’s a piece of fossil wood with a very unusual bark.”
    Amateur – “No – that’s where someone poured concrete on a piece of hessian”!

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