Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:
• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.
• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.
924 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders”
As Jon Stewart – US comedian – once asked :
” How come all OUR OIL is beneath people who hate us so much ” ????
At this early stage of the game, I’ll remain sceptical about Steggal’s, or any other independent candidate’s, chances against Abbott.
Firstly, Steggall is incomparable with Kerryn Phelps, whom she is seeking to emulate. Primarily, Phelps had a record of public policy advocation over decades behind her. With this, Phelps had authenticity in her campaign, she was not just out for herself.
This is something Steggall lacks. It appears more opportunistic and celebrity-driven. As far as I can see, Steggall is a north shore rich girl who was able to play on the ski slopes in the winter. Regardless of outcome, she will stay the pampered rich girl.
The by-election was also a special circumstance. The Wentworth electorate was seething with rage at Morrison for removing their beloved local member and PM. Phelps was able to capitalise on this and even then, facing a non-descript entity as an opponent, won by a relatively small margin.
Abbott, is a veteran. He will draw on a wealth of experience in campaigning and resources that will be sent his way from supporters across the country. I can see his margin taking a significant hit, but he will find a way to win and continue as member.
Just as Bill Maher predicted. The prospect of invading another country to get himself out of his Wall dilemma.
I am surprised that Price did not chuck at Steggall an immigration question.
They probably had to box his ears to force him to keep his tongue concealed. 🙂
shellbell @ #501 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:27 pm
He asked her about asylum seekers in detention though.
I know there seem to be some dangers attached to myhealthrecord, but, although I’m tremendously fit and healthy for a 78-y-o I have to accept there’s some small danger of being wheeled in an unconscious state into a hospital where nobody know me one day. I think I’d like them to be able to look up my record, including minor congenital heart defects and the name of my cardiologist. Spose I should check it for accuracy though…
Yeah her position on that is going to be pretty important. If I was advising her it would be a ‘must protect our borders, but we can do that in a better way at a lower less cruel cost, and I’m prepared to try and find a better, kinder, cheaper solution that still protects our border.
It’s too late now.
If only we’d turned back a few more boats in the 60s. A quiet torpedo to the Oronsay in the Indian could have saved us a lot of problems with sustainability for a start.
Confessions says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 4:26 pm
Just as Bill Maher predicted. The prospect of invading another country to get himself out of his Wall dilemma.
Yes Confessions – it’s classic Trump – lets WAG THE DOG mentality – create a distraction, start a war somewhere, anywhere ……..
…… so it takes the heat off domestic DO NOTHING TRUMP F**kUPS …..
Barney in Go Dau @ #440 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 2:13 pm
Australia sure can. 🙂
That £10 ended up costing us a bloody fortune.
The article is very interesting, but – is it really a picture of Nigella Lawson’s father?
poroti @ #501 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 12:32 pm
People always forget to think about inflation. 🙂
The pampered assertion is gratuitous.
Steggall has followed courses which required self-sacrifice albeit she had a running start.
Her father was a Manky solicitor.
In my experience Manly solicitors are surfers first and lawyers second.
Shellbell @ #514 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:35 pm
In my experience, nearly all solicitors are “manky” 🙂
Close shave as southern states once again spin climate rouletteRobert Gottliebsen
Mostly an exercise in getting Outline to work for me.
I have an outline.com tab open but often when I enter an item from (mostly) The
More or less (mostly less) nothing happens.
Sip of the finest coffee –☕
But then – if I scroll down the page to:-
and then Right Click on Home and then click on Open Link In Outline
I then get
Following my nose I then click on
🠰Return to Outline
I then cleverly enter the original
Click on Create Outline
Et Walla (as one of my dearest friends says)
Wasn’t that simple ❓
I am using Windows 10 & in this case Firefox .
I am getting dizzy with this item. 😵😵😵
E & OE
‘Pampered’ may be gratuitous, but ‘running start’ is euphemismistic.
That’s how my family and I came to Australia. No £10 for us though. My parents had compulsory English classes. I don’t remember the trip at all.
KayJay @ #516 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:38 pm
I find that quite a few sites fail to “outline” on the first attempt. But they quite often work on the second attempt.
They put wind turbines out at sea in Britain:
Gwynt y Môr (English: Sea Wind) is a 576-megawatt (MW) offshore wind farm located off the coast of North Wales and is the fourth largest operating offshore windfarm in the world. The farm has 160 wind turbines of 150 metres (490 ft) tip height above mean sea level.
Planning consent for the project was granted on 3 December 2008. The project has a value of 2 billion Euros, of which 1.2 billion Euros were spent on turbines and electrical connections. Construction began in 2012, power production started in September 2013, construction phase ended in November 2014, and final commissioning occurred in June 20.
Shellbell @ #504 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 12:35 pm
Is this some sort of North Shore – south Shore rivalry?
And he seems to have substituted the skis for the board for much of the year. 😆
There is a movie coming out soon about Ruth Bader Ginsburg and her life. On the Basis of Sex is its title.
Whoever advised Steggall to go on 2GB made a mistake. Absolutely nothing to gain by doing so and it only gives opportunity for RWNJ jocks to ply their trade of deceit.
A bad followup to a great start.
Thank you KayJay for persevering and sleuthing the Outline.
One of your quotes got to me.
Vast? What vast? Perhaps we simply haven’t enough. Maybe we need 5 times as many? (I know the calculations aren’t like that, but I get irritated when not having enough something is used to argue how useless that something is.)
And, Steve, I’ve heard a vague statement by a Minister at a public meeting that the Qld government has done a scoping study on where would be a good place to put a wind farm in Queensland waters. I gather (I said he was vague) that they’ve found a place or two where’s there’s nearly always a decent wind. I await an official announcement.
Rex Douglas @ #513 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 12:49 pm
Her team will be feeling very upbeat after that assessment.
Obviously doing the right things! 😆
Memo to Steggall advisors – Daniel Andrews never once graced Neil Mitchells 3aw studio.
If Ms Steggall wants to win Warringah, she will need to reduce the Liberal Party’s primary vote to the low 40-per-cent mark.
It will not be an easy feat given the Liberals have never polled below 50 per cent in the seat.
At the last election, Mr Abbott still polled 51.6 per cent, despite a 9.2-per-cent swing against him.
At the last election Trumble was still (just) PM and the really solid sniping and undermining hadn’t started. There’s no reason at all to think a double digit swing on PV isn’t easily on the cards. These people want a competent Liberal government, and if they blame Abbott for denying them one…
Adding to her workload is the fact she will be vying for the seat in a general election, meaning she will not get anywhere near as much media attention as Kerryn Phelps did during the recent Wentworth by-election.
“Television, radio and newspapers across the country were covering that by-election,” Green said.
“Warringah’s going to get less national attention … it’ll require a lot more on-the-ground work by the candidates.”
Ah, yeah, nah. This sounds like the delusion that elections and election coverage in the media is all about the contest of ideas and rationally discussing the policy offerings.
Bullshit. The media is driven by novelty. They are mostly dopes who wouldn’t work in an iron lung. So the gotcha or the gaffe or the colour and movement is what will fill the media coverage. If it’s easy to produce and attracts eyeballs it’s exactly what the media will focus on.
And what story this election is likely to be more easy to cover and interesting than the possibility of Abbott losing in Warringah? (trying to pretend the overall result isn’t a foregone conclusion will be hard enough) Nice to look at Olympian taking on the ex-PM. Dead fucking easy to turn into numerous stories, chuck in a couple of seat polls, bingo! And that’s before you get to how much coverage she is already getting and will continue to get before the election has even been called.
Lack of exposure is not a problem Zali Steggall will need to deal with.
Candidates in urban seats are also typically less connected to their communities than their regional counterparts.
Running for parliament is also an expensive affair. Dr Phelps spent $300,000 on her campaign last year, much of it crowdfunded or donated.
Neither problem seems to be one relevant to this situation though is it? Steggall has never lived anywhere else, local sporting identity, seems to have a large and committed support base, and not short of a quid herself. And again that’s before you even get to external players like GetUp driving money in her campaign’s direction.
Ms Steggall will be up against other independents at the election but her profile and her centre-right views mean she will dominate the independent vote at the upcoming poll, Green predicts.
Antony has the right of it.
I’m pretty certain no other significant independent will nominate. Caro (who was never a serious contender) has confirmed she won’t stand. Some of the others who had previously decided to stand may well reconsider.
We can’t say for certain that Abbott’s PV can be eroded enough to put him in danger, but we can be pretty damn certain the 2CP count will be Abbott v Steggall and Tones won’t be sitting on a 60% 2CP at the end of it. Warringah is going to be one of the most watched seats in the election and one of the biggest stories and it won’t make a lick of difference to the actual election result. But it will be instructive as to why the Liberals lost and how much trouble they really are in.
Price was fairly easy on her, even though she wasn’t on top of her brief.
Verified account @mpbowers
10m10 minutes ago
Approximately 15kms upstream from Menindee a carpet of dead fish chokes the river (pic courtesy of Graeme McCrabb) @GuardianAus #Menindee #fishkill #auspol
Barney in Go Dau @ #522 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:54 pm
She should focus on the ground game and social media. The odd long form interview with carefully selected print journo’s. Stay right away from live MSM.
Not a tautology, a pleonasm.
Steggall advisors : Rex who ?
20% Shits all over all the 0% from the broken down coal generators.
lizzie @ #501 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:27 pm
Nah, the problem is when he opens his mouth and links his tongue to his brain. 😀
This video appears to suggest otherwise.
Mavis Smith @ #525 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:57 pm
Yes he could’ve gone far more feral I agree.
Player One @ #515 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:42 pm
Its quite interesting.
Both Firefox and Chrome have extensions which seem to work quite well. An interesting exercise which keeps me from tearing my (very little) hair out at the efforts of
Mr. Robert Gottliebsen – to whom all praise. 😵
Good day today – Manky Solicitors ♡
Abbott will not see the spotlight on Warringah as a disadvantage.
More than likely he will relish the backs-to-the-wall siege mentality that the Steggal candidacy is beginning to generate, and tailor his messaging accordingly. If Fairfax, The Guardian and the ABC decide to focus attention on Steggall, then Abbott will draw on favours from his friends at 2GB and Sky News.
At the end of the day, Steggal is untested in the public sphere. Whereas Abbott, for all his faults, is a public animal. There is far too much investment in candidates who have sporting or business careers. These backgrounds rarely translate to success in the public realm.
“generators in Victoria and South Australia worked at around 20 per cent of capacity in the crisis periods because the winds didn’t blow enough.”
What about the vast coal powered stations that stopped altogether. Three of them worked at 0% capacity.
William Bowe @ #532 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:01 pm
I listened to Mitchell in the leadup to the election and he whinged everyday about Andrews not giving him the time of day.
The statistic that always gets me is that, if Saudi Arabia put a giant solar farm in it’s deserts, it would create enough power for the whole world!
But they don’t, because, Oil.
Rex Douglas @ #521 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 12:59 pm
I think you must be the reason the Greens have failed to increase their vote. 😆
Late Riser (Block)
Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:52 pm
Mr. Robert Gottliebsen would appear to be preaching to the already converted. Neither I nor the bears (Brown and Bobo) pay much heed.
used to be that the US Congress was the war declaring body – not the President. That all changed immediately after 9/11 and the power to declare war was passed to George Bush.
I am not sure if the Congress has taken that power back into thier own hands – if so Trump cannot declare war on Venezuela.
Confessions @ #469 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 3:57 pm
You can see the tide going out on Morrison’s boofhead style of Leadership before your very eyes!
poroti @ #530 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:00 pm
And that too!
Gippslander @ #475 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:02 pm
It is difficult to believe people are this stupid. As if the engineers expected 100% output 100% of the time.