Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders

Seat polls show Labor with their nose in front in one seat where they won by a whisker in 2016, and another where they haven’t won in since 1983.

Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:

• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.

• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders”

  1. Mavis Smith @ #529 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:57 pm

    Rex Douglas:

    Price was fairly easy on her, even though she wasn’t on top of her brief.

    He tried to force errors from her I thought eg “would you bring the refugees to Australia”.

    Also he tried to BS her over climate change targets etc – she blocked him.

    No doubt he was batting for abbott, situation normal etc

  2. Andrews played it well by avoiding Mitchell. His audience are all over 70 and he will turn on you like a rabid dog, not because he is passionate on an issue, but because he wants the interview to get press attention so that he can feel relevant.

    I admired Howard for fronting up to 7:30 all those times. Let’s face it, for all that he tried Kerry O’Brien was Howard’s bunny, nothing against Kerry, just that Howard enjoyed batting against him and brought his A game. But Andrews is not as good as Howard at least not yet.

  3. booleanbach @ #541 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:06 pm

    used to be that the US Congress was the war declaring body – not the President. That all changed immediately after 9/11 and the power to declare war was passed to George Bush.
    I am not sure if the Congress has taken that power back into thier own hands – if so Trump cannot declare war on Venezuela.

    But Nancy Pelosi could choose not to give Trump the money to fight his war. πŸ™‚

  4. Rex Douglas @ #531 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    William Bowe @ #532 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:01 pm

    Memo to Steggall advisors – Daniel Andrews never once graced Neil Mitchells 3aw studio.

    This video appears to suggest otherwise.

    March 2017.

    I listened to Mitchell in the leadup to the election and he whinged everyday about Andrews not giving him the time of day.

    You have always seemed to be a bit gullible. πŸ˜†

  5. ratsak @ #480 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:11 pm

    I thought Steve Price was almost gentle with her, compared to some of the hectoring interviews he and his colleagues do with people they perceive as their opponents.

    Leftist feminists are fair game.

    Nice successful young ladies of impeccable breeding? Well chivalry’s not dead ‘Fess.

    Price tested her with a bit of switch and bait with added deliberate misrepresentation and climate change denier talking points.

    But, she came over as a serious candidate ready to take the baton from a washed up hack like Abbott.

  6. BIGD

    I just did a talk to them one day and most of them spent their time looking out the window towards the sea or just got up and stood on the balcony.

    There may have been other reasons.

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #555 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:14 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #531 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:04 pm

    William Bowe @ #532 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:01 pm

    Memo to Steggall advisors – Daniel Andrews never once graced Neil Mitchells 3aw studio.

    This video appears to suggest otherwise.

    March 2017.

    I listened to Mitchell in the leadup to the election and he whinged everyday about Andrews not giving him the time of day.

    You have always seemed to be a bit gullible. 😆

    says the guy who adores Bill Shorten

  8. Catprog @ #547 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    >The statistic that always gets me is that, if Saudi Arabia put a giant solar farm in it’s deserts, it would create enough power for the whole world!

    >But they don’t, because, Oil.

    You mean like this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-28/saudi-arabia-softbank-ink-deal-on-200-billion-solar-project

    Thanks for that.

    It seems as though someone in Saudi Arabia was listening. πŸ™‚

  9. “The statistic that always gets me is that, if Saudi Arabia put a giant solar farm in it’s deserts, it would create enough power for the whole world!”

    If that’s true, so could Australia.

  10. Catprog, my limited exposure to the Arab Oil world showed me they are very serious about what happens to them when the world no longer buys their oil, either because they have run out or because it is no longer needed. They understand the amazing gift they have been given and have long planned how to spend it on themselves and their future. I expect that $200B on a solar on a farm would be trivial, a trial even.

  11. GG, ‘tested her with a bit of switch and bait with added deliberate misrepresentation and climate change denier talking points.’

    Price repeated the old furphy that we are meeting our Paris agreements. This is an out and out lie. Our emissions are higher than our intended target and they are increasing. No way will meet the Paris targets.

    When Steggall said this, Price re-iterated the lie.

  12. WeWantPaul @ #549 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:09 pm

    It is difficult to believe people are this stupid. As if the engineers expected 100% output 100% of the time.

    I see this mistake made all the time – and from renewables supporters as often as opponents. They calculate how much solar and wind generation capacity we need to replace our current coal generators, but forget (sometimes conveniently) to take into account that you actually need something like 3 to 5 times that capacity, specifically to cope with cloudy & still days. This can be reduced somewhat if it is sufficiently widely distributed geographically, and/or has massive batteries and/or hydro incorporated in the grid – but that means lots of new transmission infrastructure has to be built, because our current grid was not designed to support such a distributed model.

    This is one reason we are a lot further from reducing our dependence on coal than many people think πŸ™

  13. Steve777 @ #557 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:21 pm

    “The statistic that always gets me is that, if Saudi Arabia put a giant solar farm in it’s deserts, it would create enough power for the whole world!”

    So could Australia.

    Give Labor time!

    However, if you read that Bloomberg article linked by Catprog, it lists Australia as the 2nd biggest generator of solar power already! Though a LONG way behind what the Saudi project will generate.

  14. Steve777 @ #561 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:21 pm

    “The statistic that always gets me is that, if Saudi Arabia put a giant solar farm in it’s deserts, it would create enough power for the whole world!”

    If that’s true, so could Australia.

    It is only true in an impractical technical sense. You cannot bottle and export electricity the way you can do with oil.

  15. > to take into account that you actually need something like 3 to 5 times that capacity, specifically to cope with cloudy & still days. This can be reduced somewhat if it is sufficiently widely distributed geographically, and/or has massive batteries and/or hydro incorporated in the grid

    Batteries do not change it. You still need 3 to 5 times the capacity to charge the batteries in the first place.

    Widely distributed only reduces storage requirements not the required capacity.

    >This is one reason we are a lot further from reducing our dependence on coal than many people think
    Apparently Australia is at 15% renewables today
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Australia

    So to replace fossil electricity we need 6-7 times what we have now plus storage.

    >It is only true in an impractical technical sense. You cannot bottle and export electricity the way you can do with oil.

    But if you reduce the amount of oil you burn for electricity you can export the new excess.

  16. Price focused on Steggalls ‘Green’ values while avoiding her conservative economic values, which was the obvious tactic for him to employ given his audience.

  17. The future of the Liberal Party’s fight for its own reason for being will never be better showcased than the fight facing Abbott in his bright blue ribbon Liberal seat.
    Is it a socially progressive and economically conservative Party. Or is it a Tory outfit?
    The times they are a changing. Same Sex marriage, climate change, detention centre policy are increasingly on the minds of all voters. And for Liberal voters the question that remains unanswered about why Malcolm is not still Prime Minister is omnipresent. And raw. And consequential.
    Abbott is favourite. But I think the primary vote for his Party will take another big hit.
    Will it be enough? As of today, I would put my money on Steggall. But her campaign will be under unprecedented scrutiny. Every mis-step will be magnified. Her Price interview was the first.
    It’s a Rumsfeldian conundrum- the result is an unknown unknown. It’s what makes politics fun.

  18. C@tmomma
    says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 5:22 pm
    Rex Douglas pwned by Mr Bowe.
    _________________________
    Try not to be such a proud sycophant. We know that’s expected in the ALP but everyone in Melbourne knows that Andrews has avoided Mitchell. I doubt they’ve did an interview in 2018. Andrews went onto other 3aw shows and seemed to put a bit of time into Eddie McGuire’s FM breakfast show where he received a warm welcome. Eddie’s brother is one of Dan’s MP’s. πŸ™‚

  19. “Catprog, my limited exposure to the Arab Oil world showed me they are very serious about what happens to them when the world no longer buys their oil, either because they have run out or because it is no longer needed.”

    That’s what we should be doing with regard to coal.

    “It is only true in an impractical technical sense. You cannot bottle and export electricity the way you can do with oil.”

    True, but we’ve got more than enough sunny outback plains to generate our own needs. Plus lots of windy coastlines where hot plains meet cool oceans. The wind does blow all the time somewhere.

  20. Rex Douglas @ #560 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:25 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #563 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:22 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #549 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    says the guy who adores Bill Shorten

    😆

    No adoration, just respect for what he’s achieved as leader.

    hiding under the doona while the Govt self-destructs ?

    yuuuuge achievement indeed

    Let’s see.

    Uniting the Party as a disciplined viable alternative Government.

    Coordinating a policy framework that will allow them, and have them, ready to do things when they become the Government.

    Not being so gullible as to react to every jibe from the various PMs during this time, which has lead to the bonus of having pissed you off on countless occasions.

    What more do you want from an opposition leader? πŸ™‚

  21. nath @ #575 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:31 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 5:22 pm
    Rex Douglas pwned by Mr Bowe.
    _________________________
    Try not to be such a proud sycophant. We know that’s expected in the ALP but everyone in Melbourne knows that Andrews has avoided Mitchell. I doubt they’ve did an interview in 2018. Andrews went onto other 3aw shows and seemed to put a bit of time into Eddie McGuire’s FM breakfast show where he received a warm welcome. Eddie’s brother is one of Dan’s MP’s. 🙂

    Hey, nath, is this your football team?

    πŸ™‚

    And I knew about Frank McGuire. Thanks for asking. πŸ™‚

  22. Barney in Go Dau @ #585 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:36 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #560 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:25 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #563 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:22 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #549 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    says the guy who adores Bill Shorten

    😆

    No adoration, just respect for what he’s achieved as leader.

    hiding under the doona while the Govt self-destructs ?

    yuuuuge achievement indeed

    Let’s see.

    Uniting the Party as a disciplined viable alternative Government.

    Coordinating a policy framework that will allow them, and have them, ready to do things when they become the Government.

    Not being so gullible as to react to every jibe from the various PMs during this time, which has lead to the bonus of having pissed you off on countless occasions.

    What more do you want from an opposition leader? 🙂

    spine

    principles

    courage

  23. Catprog @ #574 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:28 pm

    Apparently Australia is at 15% renewables today
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_Australia

    So to replace fossil electricity we need 6-7 times what we have now plus storage.

    Our baseload power is still provided mostly by coal and gas – even in South Australia (ok, Tasmania uses hydro – but that model can’t be replicated elsewhere). Solar really only provides power at peak times. Wind is better at providing baseload, but even so there are days when the whole of Australia gets virtually no power from wind.

    So it is not 6-7 times what we currently have that we will need, but more like 20 times. Even with storage.

  24. Rex Douglas @ #583 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:38 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #585 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:36 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #560 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:25 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #563 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:22 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #549 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:18 pm

    says the guy who adores Bill Shorten

    😆

    No adoration, just respect for what he’s achieved as leader.

    hiding under the doona while the Govt self-destructs ?

    yuuuuge achievement indeed

    Let’s see.

    Uniting the Party as a disciplined viable alternative Government.

    Coordinating a policy framework that will allow them, and have them, ready to do things when they become the Government.

    Not being so gullible as to react to every jibe from the various PMs during this time, which has lead to the bonus of having pissed you off on countless occasions.

    What more do you want from an opposition leader? 🙂

    spine

    principles

    courage

    All of which were displayed at Beaconsfield Mine Rescue.

    Next.

  25. So it is not 6-7 times what we currently have that we will need, but more like 20 times. Even with storage.

    And that’s a problem somehow?

  26. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/new-drug-measures-cost-nsw-taxpayers-500000/news-story/6b7747b5e2dedf6e386c87ee3836eac8

    https://outline.com/TNK2Nb

    The NSW government spent about $500,000 over 10 days on harm reduction measures for three festivals, as 25 people were rushed to hospital with drug overdoses over the Australia Day weekend.

    NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard plans to introduce legislation to force festivals held from March to foot the bill for extra drug harm reduction measures, which includes the critical care teams, roving drug educators and free electrolyte drinks, as well as a rolling social media campaign aimed at warning festival goers about the health dangers of taking drugs.

    But he again ruled out supporting pill testing which is backed by several leading medical associations.

    READ NEXT

    The 3 biggest dangers to humans
    Mr Hazzard called pill testing a β€œsideshow” while Premier Gladys Berejiklian said she didn’t want the culture of people thinking it was okay to take ecstasy.

    He said placing emergency medical teams on β€œthe front line’ of music

    Another exercise using Outline.com and the Chrome extension

    Outline: Read & annotate without distractions
    1.0.6
    Outline is a free service that removes the clutter from news articles so you can read and annotate without distractions.
    ID: daoolpmoieinofbnddaofhkhmbagfmnj
    Inspect views
    background page (Inactive

    😎😇😎

  27. Rex you are hilarious!!!

    πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

    Thanks for the laughs.

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