Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders

Seat polls show Labor with their nose in front in one seat where they won by a whisker in 2016, and another where they haven’t won in since 1983.

Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:

• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.

• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders”

  1. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 6:25 pm
    briefly @ #666 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:20 pm

    Banks will split the Lib vote in Flinders, most likely enabling a Labor win.
    The Lib vote has totally collapsed in Victoria.

    It’s going to be a massacre!

    Indeed.

  2. 7 News Brisbane
    ‏Verified account @7NewsBrisbane
    2h2 hours ago

    Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP is being urged to take action after thousands more fish were found dead on the banks of the Darling River, in far west New South Wales. @olivialeeming #auspol #7News

    Sure…. with Corrupt Nats and Barney in control (along with Corrupt Libs).

  3. frednk @ #689 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:35 pm

    Ya well the answer is pretty clear isn’t it. Get you kid vaccinated. If it’s too late; she suffers, but keep her away from pregnant women. And as the mother, hang your stupid head is absolute shame.

    Measles isn’t rubella. It is a much more serious disease for the sufferer. Caused severe damage to my sister’s sight, before vaccination was available.

  4. a r @ #7328 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:32 pm

    Confessions @ #609 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 4:53 pm

    Stupid squared. I wonder if this women lives here. We had a measles notification a couple of weeks ago.

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    She’s trolling the anti-vaxxers, surely?

    No. She’s one of the hard core idiots tracked by reasonablehank and others. There is a very hard line core to the Vaxxheads, particularly in NSW. Fortunately the death threats that some of their more “activist” supporters were making against some Public Health workers were taken seriously and investigated – with some prosecutions and several fleeing to some less “regulated” environments – like the Southern Philippines.

  5. Looks like the ABC might be reading the opinion polls and starting to flex their muscles.

    Murdoch tabloid shill Denis Atkins, one of the saner RupertRooters, has been ‘boned’ from the Insiders program. And he responds with a passive aggressive tweet…

    “Looks like Insiders is going to be an exclusive Sydney/Melbourne/Canberra show. No voices from anywhere else. Oh well no need to watch boys & girls @sclark_melbs @barriecassidy. Don’t watch Sky either friends. Go for a walk. I will.

  6. (He) started his career as a far-right, fire-breathing Conservative…and drifted Left

    This is a lovely story about one of my favourite politicians of this era, John Bercow:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/order-order-the-sharp-tongued-speaker-of-the-house-of-commons-is-changing-the-rules–and-maybe-brexit/2019/01/27/ff0c18c4-1b61-11e9-b8e6-567190c2fd08_story.html?utm_term=.2432cb460289

    It also reminds us about this happening tomorrow:

    Prime Minister Theresa May’s government on Tuesday will face debate and votes on a raft of amendments allowed by Bercow that could change the trajectory of Brexit. It is entirely possible the members will vote to delay the scheduled March 29 departure date or even stop Britain leaving the European Union without a deal.

  7. sprocket,
    I noticed that Denis Atkins was taking an inordinately long time to say things last year on Insiders. Maybe that’s why they got rid of him?

  8. Murdoch owns the Manly Daily so it will be interesting to see what slant the paper places on the contest in Warringah.

    According to the News Limited website the dead tree edition is distributed free on Wednesdays and Saturdays in the Warringah region. The digital edition is integrated into the DT online presence.

    EDIT: See https://www.newscorpaustralia.com/brand/manly-daily/

    So the Manly Daily might be expected to push the Murdoch line on issues favourable to Abbott, such as energy/climate policy. However Murdoch doesn’t seem to be terribly well disposed to Abbott personally these days.

    What slant might we expect on their articles about the election campaign?

  9. An electorate that’s voted in Abbott for 25 years will try to redeem itself through the thin veil of environmentalism whilst still advocating unfair tax concessions that favour the rich. Yep, that sounds like North Shore Sydney.

  10. Leon @ #708 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:57 pm

    I think there are some medical conditions which make it inappropriate for a person to be vaccinated.

    Very few children have immunodeficiency syndromes which preclude non-live vaccines. They can be covered by specific immunoglobulin for exposure, but mostly depend on herd immunity to reduce risk of exposure. They are the ones that the bloody antivaxxers put at risk.

    Measles is rarely lethal, but highly transmissible in susceptible populations. It causes nasty neurological consequences in up to 1% of cases. Rubella only does so if contracted in utero.

  11. KAK was with Gladys the other day I see – TORY.

    Kerri-Anne Kennerley has been slammed and her views labelled “putrid” after a Studio 10 discussion about Australia Day protests turned heated.

    Presenter Yumi Stynes branded Kennerley’s stance “racist” after the daytime queen claimed Invasion Day protesters were ignorant of Aboriginal women and children “being raped” in the outback.

    Since the segment aired Twitter has lit up with users slamming Kennerley’s “ignorant and uninformed” argument.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/ugly-row-rocks-studio-10-every-time-you-open-your-mouth-you-sound-racist/news-story/96af83ef6cc60bfea50028b76ddf2d6b

  12. I think there are some medical conditions which make it inappropriate for a person to be vaccinated.

    Why herd immunity is SO important!

  13. 😆 Just tuned into Andrew Blot’s Sky program. Very educational. He had Craig Kelly explaining how the blackouts in Victoria were all due to …………………………………………. Wind and solar.

  14. Sir Henry Parkes
    says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 6:35 pm
    Would the well-known anti-Shorten posters on this site please give the Bill-bashing a rest?
    Just cheer up and see the positive in the strong likelihood that Australia will shortly elect the most progressive government in 44 years.
    __________________________________
    Who the F… do you think you are? I’m gonna go harder because of that. Plus, when you get stooges on here praising his ‘courage’ for the way he media whored the Beaconsfield disaster it’s gonna provoke some reaction.

  15. Measles is rarely lethal, but highly transmissible in susceptible populations.

    Our measles outbreak a couple weeks ago was one person or persons and the Health Dept listed the number of places the person had travelled to (Perth to Albany and back) over a 3 day period, with all the venues and shops they’d visited.

    If it weren’t so serious an issue it would’ve made for an interesting travelogue: various places in Perth, petrol station (obviously they were driving to Albany), a local tavern for dinner, then a bicycle shop and beach cafe the next day, an entertainment venue that night, and other places in between I can’t remember.

  16. rhwombat @ #713 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:10 pm

    Leon @ #708 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:57 pm

    I think there are some medical conditions which make it inappropriate for a person to be vaccinated.

    Very few children have immunodeficiency syndromes which preclude non-live vaccines. They can be covered by specific immunoglobulin for exposure, but mostly depend on herd immunity to reduce risk of exposure. They are the ones that the bloody antivaxxers put at risk.

    Measles is rarely lethal, but highly transmissible in susceptible populations. It causes nasty neurological consequences in up to 1% of cases. Rubella only does so if contracted in utero.

    rhw

    The journo Krn Williamson broke the heart of everyone in the ACT back in the early 80s and I think there would not have been an antivaxxer in the territory. He described the death of his daughter about 3 years after catching measles. She was one of the 1%.

    it was about the time I was vaccinating my kids and measles was the one I was most anxty about. I did not think twice thereafter.

  17. Strategic voting makes sense in many circumstances. There are a number of electorates that Labor has no chance of winning. The best result might be to replace a totally unacceptable member like Abbott with someone somewhat acceptable or at least less unacceptable, especially if the Coalition Government will be damaged.

    I wouldn’t vote for someone I though might join the Liberals, but I’d vote for a Tony Windsor, for example. As for Ms Steggall, I don’t know her from a bar of soap so I’d make sure I familiarised myself with her views and principles before voting day.

    And L/NP last. And Labor 1 for the Senate.

  18. nath @ #721 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:17 pm

    Sir Henry Parkes
    says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 6:35 pm
    Would the well-known anti-Shorten posters on this site please give the Bill-bashing a rest?
    Just cheer up and see the positive in the strong likelihood that Australia will shortly elect the most progressive government in 44 years.
    __________________________________
    Who the F… do you think you are? I’m gonna go harder because of that. Plus, when you get stooges on here praising his ‘courage’ for the way he media whored the Beaconsfield disaster it’s gonna provoke some reaction.

    Says the grubbiest grub on PB, who thinks he owns the blog. What a nasty piece of work he is.

  19. “poroti says:
    Monday, January 28, 2019 at 7:17 pm
    Just tuned into Andrew Blot’s Sky program. Very educational. He had Craig Kelly explaining how the blackouts in Victoria were all due to …………………………………………. Wind and solar.”

    He’s just in tune with that Sky&Oz luminary, Chris Kenny:

    “Weather facts blow hot and cold
    CHRIS KENNY
    In complicated and, all too often, emotive weather and climate coverage, the Bureau of Meteorology needs to be more transparent.” (Oz headline)

  20. Strategic voting makes sense in many circumstances. There are a number of electorates that Labor has no chance of winning. The best result might be to replace a totally unacceptable member like Abbott with someone somewhat acceptable or at least less unacceptable, especially if the Coalition Government will be damaged.

    I’d like to think it was strategic voting in O’Connor that sent Wilson Tuckey packing. I know that Tony Crook (a Nat) got elected on Labor preferences (I think mostly in Albany booths), but this was likely due to voters following a HTV card than thinking too hard about it.

    Still worth it, even though Crook lasted one term if it meant getting rid of the appalling Tuckey.

  21. Sir Henry Parkes,

    I can recommend “PB Comments Plugin”. (If KayJay is still about he has the important knowledge on this.) And if you are inclined to experiment you can search Chrome or Firefox plugins for that name. The plugin gives you the ability to Block comments from posters. It can make this place less objectionable. 🙂

  22. ““Weather facts blow hot and cold
    CHRIS KENNY
    In complicated and, all too often, emotive weather and climate coverage, the Bureau of Meteorology needs to be more transparent.” (Oz headline)”

    Gawd he writes some crap. The Bureau collects data, does science and publishes its findings.

    Actually, Climate denying think tanks like the IPA need to be transparent about their funding.

  23. Barnaby seems to be writing a bit for Murdoch lately. Does he need to supplement his backbencher income to support his family/families?

    “Time to tackle vigilante vandals
    BARNABY JOYCE
    It’s time to tackle the militant minority imposing their nutty views on us all.” (Oz headline)

  24. Bureau of Meteorology needs to be more transparent.”

    To prove their deeply held suspicion the BoM is receiving government funds ? 🙂

  25. As far as climate denial goes, the following is the null hypothesis that climate deniers need to demonstrate cannot be disproved by the data:

    If nothing were happening, as they claim, then some glaciers would be advancing, a similar proportion would be retreating, many would advance in some years, retreat in others. Many would not be doing much at all.

    Snowlines (altitudinal and latitudinal) would by and large be where they were in the 19th century – a few might have advanced, others retreated.

    Ditto Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. Ditto the extent of warm and cold climate plant and animal species. Away from urban centres, cold records and hot records, when considering broad areas, would occur regularly with about the same frequency. Both would be uncommon at long record stations.

    Not quoted – my words. But if climate deniers have no credible evidence to support the above, they don’t know what they’re talking about, or maybe they do and they’re shilling for vested interests.

  26. WeWantPaul @ #326 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:20 pm

    From what I can see, Zali Steggall will not support the reforms of negative gearing, capital gains tax, imputed dividend refunds & she supports company tax cuts for big business

    Unless Kouk is wrong we know enough.

    I think Zali position on negative gearing is tactically sound. She needs to pull from Tony’s primary vote and making herself clearly differentiated from the ALP on economics helps with that.

    It looks like the core strategy is to focus on climate change and being socially progressive and in all other respects be a conventional tory.

  27. citizen @ #726 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 3:38 pm

    Barnaby seems to be writing a bit for Murdoch lately. Does he need to supplement his backbencher income to support his family/families?

    “Time to tackle vigilante vandals
    BARNABY JOYCE
    It’s time to tackle the militant minority imposing their nutty views on us all.” (Oz headline)

    As opposed to his “nutty” views.

    There certainly seems to be a lot of space in between the two.

    Maybe that’s where the answer might be? 🙂

  28. So Rupert invited Shorten to visit with him when he’s next in New York, to which Shorten politely said that won’t be happening as he’s perfectly happy dealing with his Australian-based management.

    😆

  29. Looking at the booths from Warringah from 2016, Abbott was pretty consistent but was more popular in Mosman than Manly (aka Manky).

  30. “It’s time to tackle the militant minority imposing their nutty views on us all.”

    I assume here he means the Nationals, the right wing of the “Liberals”, the “Christian” Right, the IPA and Newscrap.

  31. I think Zali position on negative gearing is tactically sound. She needs to pull from Tony’s primary vote and making herself clearly differentiated from the ALP on economics helps with that.

    She’s on 730 tomorrow. Apparently 730 travelled with her as she went to announce her candidacy.

    She is positioning herself as a “whole new generation” from Abbott, saying that he is incapable of change and his views are out of touch with the issues facing us today.

  32. Late Riser @ #729 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:30 pm

    Sir Henry Parkes,

    I can recommend “PB Comments Plugin”. (If KayJay is still about he has the important knowledge on this.) And if you are inclined to experiment you can search Chrome or Firefox plugins for that name. The plugin gives you the ability to Block comments from posters. It can make this place less objectionable. 🙂

    Chrome Extension
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

    Really good value plugin by AR for Desktop Firefox or Chrome
    also works with Android Phone an Tablet and Firefox – possible limited function.

    Good luck with this.

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