Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:
• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.
• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.
nath
‘Wrong, as per usual. Howard put Single parents on to Newstart when the youngest child reached 12, Gillard/Macklin took that down to age 8.’
Er, bzzt. Wrong, as per usual —
‘The Howard Government made substantial changes to Parenting Payment – Single (PPS) and Parenting Payment – Partnered (PPP) with the Welfare to Work reforms of 2006.[2] From 1 July 2006 the participation requirements[3] for PPS and PPP were:
single people claiming PPS after 1 July 2006 could receive the payment while their youngest child was aged less than eight years. However, they would have participation requirements once that child turned eight years of age and be required to claim another income support payment, mainly Newstart Allowance (NSA…’
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201213/ParentingPayment
‘You seem to have a problem with people getting the single parenting payment ..’
Not at all. I’m simply pointing out that if being a parent is a full time job for one person, the same principle should apply to couples – if one partner is employed, Centrelink should be happy to continue supporting the other (if their income is low enough to justify payments) without that partner having to look for work.
Indeed, that was the case before the Howard changes referred to above .
I think March is dead in the water.
Peter Stanton says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 12:54 pm
phoenixRED says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 12:41 pm
Maduro says a US-led ‘coup’ is behind the political upheaval in Venezuela
——————————————————–
The USA interfering in other American nations. That has never happened before.
*************************************************
Agree with your sarcastically stating the obvious Peter ……. its a broken record
According to historian William Blum
Overthrowing other people’s governments: The Master List
By William Blum
Instances of the United States overthrowing, or attempting to overthrow, a foreign government since the Second World War. (* indicates successful ouster of a government)
•China 1949 to early 1960s
•Albania 1949-53
•East Germany 1950s
•Iran 1953 *
•Guatemala 1954 *
•Costa Rica mid-1950s
•Syria 1956-7
•Egypt 1957
•Indonesia 1957-8
•British Guiana 1953-64 *
•Iraq 1963 *
•North Vietnam 1945-73
•Cambodia 1955-70 *
•Laos 1958 *, 1959 *, 1960 *
•Ecuador 1960-63 *
•Congo 1960 *
•France 1965
•Brazil 1962-64 *
•Dominican Republic 1963 *
•Cuba 1959 to present
•Bolivia 1964 *
•Indonesia 1965 *
•Ghana 1966 *
•Chile 1964-73 *
•Greece 1967 *
•Costa Rica 1970-71
•Bolivia 1971 *
•Australia 1973-75 *
•Angola 1975, 1980s
•Zaire 1975
•Portugal 1974-76 *
•Jamaica 1976-80 *
•Seychelles 1979-81
•Chad 1981-82 *
•Grenada 1983 *
•South Yemen 1982-84
•Suriname 1982-84
•Fiji 1987 *
•Libya 1980s
•Nicaragua 1981-90 *
•Panama 1989 *
•Bulgaria 1990 *
•Albania 1991 *
•Iraq 1991
•Afghanistan 1980s *
•Somalia 1993
•Yugoslavia 1999-2000 *
•Ecuador 2000 *
•Afghanistan 2001 *
•Venezuela 2002 *
•Iraq 2003 *
•Haiti 2004 *
•Somalia 2007 to present
•Honduras 2009 *
•Libya 2011 *
•Syria 2012
•Ukraine 2014 *
Q: Why will there never be a coup d’état in Washington?
A: Because there’s no American embassy there.
WWP:
I can understand Sharkie and Phelps giving confidence to the govt – both have recently won by-elections and wouldn’t be champing at the bit to head to an election, Phelps esp.
As for their supporting the Liberal economic position, Steggall said this morning that greater investment was needed in renewable energy so on that front alone she is already poles apart from the govt.
And I do not see people holding any of them up as “centrist heroes”, more that their taking safe Liberal seats off the Liberals is good for the Liberals moving back towards the centre, as well as being good for Labor. As GG said, the more indies threaten safe coalition seats, the more resources the coalition needs to throw into campaigning in them.
I was worried that I’d been a bit hard on these blue-indies, but just saw a tweet from Stephen Koukoulas :
That is my main point.
I can see your point WWP.
And if I wanted to restore the L-NP as quickly as possible to make them electable and protect my interests, I would want the hardliners replaced by independents that would happily join a more traditional Liberal party. Problem solved.
I’m trying to think what an “interested party” would see as the best solution 🙂
Three biggest threats to humanity: obesity, undernutrition, climate change:
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/the-three-biggest-threats-to-humanity-revealed-in-lancet-report-20190128-p50u1x.html
WeWantPaul
An Indie who votes with the LNP every time, after a suitable interval to ‘consider her position’ is just being deceptive.
Hmmm …. supporting Morrison govt for personal gain and advancement …. as Kouk says:
Question:
I didn’t read it that way, more that while PvO hates what Trump is doing on immigration and at the southern border, he has a mandate for the wall because he campaigned on it.
Where he went wrong in my view is that Trump had 2 years to get his wall when Republicans controlled the WH and Congress. Using his logic, those Democrats who were elected last year certainly didn’t campaign on building a wall and therefore have a mandate to oppose Trump on that.
One of the Herbert poll questions goes to show ‘Money can’t buy you love’
libs to use John Howard as part of their campaign to take the Libs forward, er backward…….er forward…………..er backwards.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1089700939399860224
Guardian Australia
Verified account @GuardianAus
1m1 minute ago
Electricity prices could rise under Coalition’s ‘big stick’, business warns
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/28/electricity-prices-could-rise-under-coalitions-big-stick-business-warns?CMP=soc_568
Hi Grimace,
Just saw your request @11.09 am.
I’m not any good at posting links etc, being the most IT illiterate person on earth.
WB was on ABC’s RN Breakfast at approx. 7.49 am, East Coast Time(!). If you care to search the ABC website the item comes up as : What does Keenan’s retirement mean for the coalition in WA.
Below is attempt to post link but no guarantees. Perhaps you can play with it to make it work for you.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/keenans-retirement-mean-for-the-coalition-in-wa/10754976
Yeah and Labor folk get to see where supporting red state dems got the dems and it is all bad.
Yeah they are a lot better than Abbott, Morrison etc, but not so far away they don’t support Morrison. So long as it is painted very clearly as a blue on blue war, and the LNP is the loser it is good. Soon as these ultraconservatives are seen as clear minded, centralist sensibles they drag the overton window almost back to the Abbott position, but with a coat of climate change action (which is good).
I think it’s fair to say the Liberals are already split. There are several alt-right brands, a few of which have parliamentary representation, including the Shooters, ON, Hinch, the Cories and the Lib-Dems. There is a bunch of crypto-Lib Independents. This disintegration has been ongoing. We’re now seeing it reach further into the founding Lib heartlands in Sydney and Melbourne. The Right is becoming more and more balkanised, reflecting the real pressures on their constituencies. These pressures have economic, environmental, cultural, geographic and demographic dimensions. As time goes on, it’s increasingly clear the Right have no effective responses to these pressures. They have no policies. The best they can do is run troll-politics. Most of these ‘parties’ are not parties at all in the historic sense. They are facades. They are troll-shops. The Liberals – since 1949 a party of government – have become a front for trolls as well. In this iteration, the Liberals have become blue-washed facsimiles of the other Right-troll mobs. They have thoroughly debased themselves.
The splitting will doubtless continue for a while yet.
WWP:
And furthermore we don’t know enough about Steggall’s policy positions as she only just announced her nomination yesterday.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/28/bill-shorten-pledges-200m-to-restore-urban-rivers-and-waterways
“Under the $200m plan local environmental action groups will be able to apply for small grants for projects such as building wetlands to filter stormwater, revegetation, turning cement waterfronts into natural river banks, and creek education programs.”
zoomster
Whatever the age requirements and grandfathering rules etc the fact remains that Howard, Gillard and Macklin forced hundreds of thousands of single parents and their children into poverty. A fact you seem to have little problem with.
I’m kind of amazed that Palmer can even muster 8%. Bearing in mind I’m a Victorian – I can’t say I’ve heard a single positive or neutral response to one of Clive Palmer’s various self-promotion attempts. Generally a groan and a negative comment about him is the response.
On pre-selections I believe there was an unweighted postal vote on at least two positions for the Victorian ALP ticket where there wasn’t an incumbent – in the Eastern Metropolitan position 2 and Western Metropolitan position 1. Not being in Western Metropolitan I didn’t follow it but in Eastern Metropolitan the former member and union backed candidate lost and the winner of the postal vote is now the ALP member for Eastern Metropolitan Sonja Terpstra.
Fess,
I agree all these independents will help the ALP win the coming election. I’m attempting to pull out the crystal ball and look into the future of the Liberal party, and how the various interests will play it.
All speculation of course.
I think Abbott, easy as he is to dislike, is a figure of mirth and an asset to the ALP.
lol:
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/former-pm-john-howard-revealed-as-nsw-lib-partys-secret-weapon/news-story/5caefb26284268780f812bc8e30135de
Nine News Queensland
Verified account @9NewsQueensland
9m9 minutes ago
Julia Banks, the former Liberal MP who called out bullying in the party’s damaging leadership coup, is reportedly set to run as an independent, against a senior Government Minister. @jekearsley #AusPol #9News
Meanwhile, the splitters on the Left have been largely defeated. Labor is well-united and cohesive, and trained to campaign to win and exercise power. The fleas on their self-styled Left, the Gs, have been campaigning against themselves for a long time now and are seeing their support begin to shrink. The Gs are now just another minor voice…an increasingly faint voice. Labor’s historic plurality is being re-built, drawing support away from all its competitors. As this develops, the case for the Gs will become ever weaker.
As reported in today’s print edition of the Oz, Tones has come out with that old chestnut: a carbon tax if Labor were to be elected. Poor guy, still living the dream of 2013. Even with O’Dwyer telling the old guard what’s wrong with Tory Party, it maintains a blissful ignorance of what the majority of the electorate wants.
Stephen Koukoulas:
Unless Kouk is wrong we know enough.
With Phelps and Sharkie they are supporting and prolonging the Morrison muppet show of evil, now many may be comfortable with that I don’t see how any sane decent person could possibly do that. And if you are excusing them for putting self interest ahead of Country, well that is the problem with modern democracy, and excusing it seems a little odd to me.
Trump false claiming (aka lying) again:
https://hillreporter.com/trump-uses-texas-election-investigation-to-falsely-claim-58000-people-voted-illegally-22557
The RWNJs are bound to blame Morrison for the loss and one of them will become LOTO,preferably one that has a lot of baggage. 3 terms for Labor on the cards.
Question says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 1:19 pm
Fess,
I agree all these independents will help the ALP win the coming election. I’m attempting to pull out the crystal ball and look into the future of the Liberal party, and how the various interests will play it.
All speculation of course.
I think Abbott, easy as he is to dislike, is a figure of mirth and an asset to the ALP.
Abbott has an entirely baleful effect on Australian politics. The sooner he’s sent into electoral obscurity the better.
You left out aged pensioners, unemployed, disabled and well anyone else on a pension.
Did Labor make mistakes, sure. Did the LNP set up and continue to run an evil fraudulent robodebt? Yes. Did they kill kids with their stupid and evil work for the dole scheme. Yeah. So don’t both sides on this one …
Banks in Flinders against Hunt is the speculation. Saved you a click.
Question:
The other issue regarding the Liberals having to campaign in safe seats to ward off indies is where does Morrison campaign? He would be toxic to voters in Higgins, likewise in Hunt’s electorate, and viewed as same-same as Abbott in Warringah.
I doubt he does much for voters in WA and SA. That leaves boganville parts of NSW (Sydney western suburbs and regional areas) and Qld. Perhaps Tas. He’s a definite liability to the party especially in a campaign – bet they wish they’d hung onto Turnbull.
Lets have a poll on Warringah soon.
briefly,
I agree, the question is what is the quickest way to cure the #LibSplit?
I think getting rid of the nutter’s, recasting the Liberal party along traditional lines, and drawing all the “Liberal” independents into the fold would be a good strategy. Might help clean out the branches at the same time.
Thanks, iom. Interesting. I wonder how large her support team might be.
WeWantPaul @ #326 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:20 am
Yes she is upfront about that on her website, as she is about tax cuts to small and medium businesses. But there are other factors regarding the economy where we don’t know what her positions are. Presumably we will find out, but irrespective of that, I still believe it is ridiculous to say her and Phelps (and Sharkie ftm) are far right.
So this is an example that we can put in the ‘bad’ column. This would be a fake independent LNP running against the LNP in a seat the ALP has a chance in. Don’t be surprised to see Stokes and Murdoch and their agents of evil and propaganda get 150% on board with these kind of contests.
I still believe it is ridiculous to see anyone willfully, including out of self interest, supporting and sustaining the Morrison govt in any other light.
At this stage, it would appear that Labor has its nose in front.
Zali Steggel (and Phelps/Sharkie) may appear as far right to some people on this site, buts thats probably cause they are Labor fans. She is a small L Liberal. Clearly asking Tim Flannery (who is basically person non-grata with the right) to help her with climate policy is a sign she isnt.
McGowan, Phelps and Sharkie, in guaranteeing confidence and supply to the Government, are simply holding to their beliefs, doing what they said they’d do and doing what most of their (normally conservative-voting) constituents want them to do. I understand that they’ll treat other legislation on a case by case basis. Also goes for Katter.
It would be nice if they changed their minds and brought down the Government, but that ain’t going to happen.
‘There are several alt-right brands, a few of which have parliamentary representation, including the Shooters, ON, Hinch, the Cories and the Lib-Dems. There is a bunch of crypto-Lib Independents.’
Thats at least 6 right wing parties effectively splitting all the Coalition supporters. If that isnt divided,I dont know what is.Lets hope they remain split for years.
briefly @ #320 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:20 pm
The cellophane left can be walked through and seen through as if it wasn’t there!
Confessions
I thoroughly approve of your suggestion for where Morrison might do the most good. Maybe he could do that bus thing again? (My sarcasm is not aimed at you. I wish they actually might.)
Bushfire Bill @ #202 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:38 am
I’m a bit surprised Nicholas is not all over this request, telling us how Venezuela is actually a thriving economy 🙂
Fess,
I think you are focused the coming election, which I am well past. Sure, black swan, don’t count your chickens, etc, etc. I have been bored waiting for Shorten to move into the lodge for over a year now. Can’t help it.
After that the ALP will probably not have the senate to get much controversial stuff done, although they are better at that kind of thing and might be able to trade off policy and get a few things through.
The question for me is how electable can the Liberals become in the first term. And what do people like Rupert think is the quickest way for them to do that? Getting rid of Abbott would be a good start. And don’t worry, I won’t be crying about it.
No it isn’t going to happen because they are ultraconservative representing ultraconservative seats, with large doses of self interest and ego. That they don’t support racism and actually believe in science is wonderful. That they do support trickle down and the manifestly failed ultraconservative elements of social and economic policy that entails, makes them, you know, ultraconservative.
G’day Showson, great to see you about, even fleetingly.
Question says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 1:26 pm
briefly,
I agree, the question is what is the quickest way to cure the #LibSplit?
I think getting rid of the nutter’s, recasting the Liberal party along traditional lines, and drawing all the “Liberal” independents into the fold would be a good strategy. Might help clean out the branches at the same time.
_______________________________________
The people behind Steggall are doing what the local party members wouldn’t when they re-endorsed Abbott: put up someone who is in tune with the majority of the electorate.
Let me help him, I’m pretty sure the problem in Venezuela is corruption and not any political flavor or brand. Not as corrupt as the US but very very bad, and that is bad for society and the economy.