Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders

Seat polls show Labor with their nose in front in one seat where they won by a whisker in 2016, and another where they haven’t won in since 1983.

Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:

• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.

• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders”

  1. What more do you want from an opposition leader?

    _____________________________________

    A promise to introduce the full raft of Greens Wishlist dreams.

  2. C@tmomma
    says:
    spine
    principles
    courage
    All of which were displayed at Beaconsfield Mine Rescue.
    Next.
    ______________________
    Yes it must have been harrowing taking Richard Pratt’s private jet from Melbourne to Launceston. Although there was probably champagne on board. And the daily press conferences where he succeeded in getting his ugly mug on every tv in the land. What fortitude!

  3. The NSW government spent about $500,000 over 10 days on harm reduction measures for three festivals, as 25 people were rushed to hospital with drug overdoses over the Australia Day weekend.

    With 25 people being rushed to hospital, I would say they wasted their $500k.

  4. nath @ #592 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 1:45 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    spine
    principles
    courage
    All of which were displayed at Beaconsfield Mine Rescue.
    Next.
    ______________________
    Yes it must have been harrowing taking Richard Pratt’s private plan from Melbourne to Launceston. Although there was probably champagne on board. And the daily press conferences where he succeeded in getting his ugly mug on every tv in the land. What fortitude!

    You really should get over your envy.

    It’s quite pathetic! 😆

  5. In Warringah, last time, James Mathison got 11%, the Green 12% plus and an Xenophonian 6%.

    Steggall surely must get 25% plus primary.

  6. I’d like the ALP stooges on here to commission a painting ‘the hero of Beaconsfield’. In the style of Stalinist hero art it will depict Shorten digging down a kilometre with his bare hands to meet up with the trapped miners. Perhaps a triptych with Shorten receiving the praise of the local townspeople.

  7. nath @ #598 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:45 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    spine
    principles
    courage
    All of which were displayed at Beaconsfield Mine Rescue.
    Next.
    ______________________
    Yes it must have been harrowing taking Richard Pratt’s private plan from Melbourne to Launceston. Although there was probably champagne on board. And the daily press conferences where he succeeded in getting his ugly mug on every tv in the land. What fortitude!

    You can attempt to trivialise it all you want, but the people who were actually there, especially Brant Webb and Todd Russell and their families, didn’t think so:

    This week, Australian Workers Union national secretary Bill Shorten has been the public face of the Beaconsfield mine disaster. He has featured in almost every news bulletin and newspaper, has given countless news conferences and, at times, been the sole conduit of information about the mine for the media, the public and for anxious miners’ families.

    He has played the hand of the “good bloke”, and won praise from both mine management, as well as miners’ families. He says the week has been a rollercoaster for him.

    “When we arrived on Friday, it looked pretty grim,” he told The Age. “I went through (the) Longford (gas plant explosion) and I saw what catastrophic workplace fatalities can do to a community.”

    The subsequent discovery on Sunday that miners Brant Webb and Todd Russell were still alive changed the mood of Beaconsfield and brought with it a barrage of media attention.

    While mine management have been coy with information, and at times reluctant to talk, Mr Shorten has been free with his time and offered everything he knows to the public.

    “The reality is, unions often know what’s going on before other people, because these people are our members.”

    And he has promised to make sure conditions at the mine are fully investigated once Mr Russell and Mr Webb are freed.

    The union has also held meetings with members, met miners’ families, and set up a fund for them, as well as flown family members to Beaconsfield from interstate.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/shorten-plays-more-than-mere-union-man-20060504-ge28wv.html

    At the end of the day you are just a little grub, nath, and Bill Shorten is a great man who will make a great Prime Minister of this country.

  8. C@tmomma @ #599 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:46 pm

    KayJay,
    I loved,
    ‘Free Australian’
    Barely worth the effort

    😆

    Yes indeedy. I was searching for extensions at the time. I might as well disable that one.

    Anti-paywall works well but takes a little stuffing about to load it.

    Time for me to get ready for doing even less than not much.

    Cripes. The Rowe cartoon is wunderbar.

    Zali has a To Let sign on her bottom and a ferocious grin. ❤

  9. Shellbell @ #604 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    In Warringah, last time, James Mathison got 11%, the Green 12% plus and an Xenophonian 6%.

    Steggall surely must get 25% plus primary.

    She’ll tear off about 15% from Abbott, take the 11% mathison and then it’s game on for preferences.

    Abbott needs 43% primary to survive and he’s not going to get it!

  10. A promise to introduce the full raft of Greens Wishlist dreams.

    Don’t be silly, Silly.

    If Bill stood up and announced the entire Green policy suite as his election manifesto Di Natale would be up 10 seconds later decrying how they simply don’t go far enough and announce the Greens new product differentiations.

    Rex would be relieved that his same-same game wasn’t over.

  11. Yeah and Shorten finds accommodation now for sports people. His wonderworking never ceases. Odd that the cleaners from Cleanevent weren’t treated as well, but there was no press attention on them so he shafted them.

  12. C@tmomma @ #592 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    So it is not 6-7 times what we currently have that we will need, but more like 20 times. Even with storage.

    And that’s a problem somehow?

    Yes – because the longer it takes us to build all those renewables, the more greenhouse gases we are emitting in the meantime by burning coal. We should be looking at alternatives to coal while we are building out the renewables, because that is going to take longer than most people seem to think.

  13. We should be looking at alternatives to coal while we are building out the renewables, because that is going to take longer than most people seem to think.

    We should be looking for cheap clean alternatives to coal while we buildout the cheap clean alternatives to coal …. wait a minute back up the horses there is a step or two of logic missing there.

  14. Steggall surely must get 25% plus primary.

    Yeah, I think that’s conservative.

    Labor voters will also vote tactically.

    Something in the 30s I think. But that’s obviously a pretty big range.

  15. BiGD,
    Yes, nath is jealous of Bill Shorten’s success in life, while all nath can summon is a Mr Nastypants impression on PB. 😆

    It must have gotten to him that time at the polo when nath was the hired help doing his clown routine and Bill Shorten was already on his way in life. A chip on your shoulder doesn’t get much bigger than what nath seems to have about Bill Shorten. I think this definition covers it well:

    To have a chip on one’s shoulder refers to the act of holding a grudge or grievance that readily provokes disputation. It can also mean a person thinking too much of oneself (often without the credentials).

  16. Adding to her [Steggall’s] workload is the fact she will be vying for the seat in a general election, meaning she will not get anywhere near as much media attention as Kerryn Phelps did during the recent Wentworth by-election.

    “Television, radio and newspapers across the country were covering that by-election,” Green said.

    “Warringah’s going to get less national attention … it’ll require a lot more on-the-ground work by the candidates.”
    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    Let us not forget the role local media, such as the Manly Daily, also plays in elections. Local papers don’t see much reason to merely duplicate national coverage of elections, so they constantly look for local angles, as is their job of course.
    A high profile local running against a high profile local MP is just the gig local journalists would love to cover. I doubt Steggall will have that much of a media presence problem.

  17. I’m sure the pain of losing will be salved by removing a Liberal from a seat they have never lost.

    Maybe, I’m just a boring old fashioned purist who thinks if you want a progressive you need to vote for one, and if you vote for an ultraconservative trickle down believer, that is what you deserve … so for me it isn’t difficult.

  18. C@tmomma @ #628 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:03 pm

    BiGD,
    Yes, nath is jealous of Bill Shorten’s success in life, while all nath can summon is a Mr Nastypants impression on PB. 😆

    It must have gotten to him that time at the polo when nath was the hired help doing his clown routine and Bill Shorten was already on his way in life. A chip on your shoulder doesn’t get much bigger than what nath seems to have about Bill Shorten. I think this definition covers it well:

    To have a chip on one’s shoulder refers to the act of holding a grudge or grievance that readily provokes disputation. It can also mean a person thinking too much of oneself (often without the credentials).

    Momma,
    You and Nath should just get a room so you can punch the crap out of him!

  19. Well known NSW Liberal Party identity, and former candidate for NSW President John Ruddick out of the blocks with the first slur of Steggal, tweeting this..

    “Why has Zali Steggall wiped her old Facebook? A friend had watched it for years. He says Zali is an ‘apoplectic lefty’ who is so pro Get-Up! he’s pretty sure Zali was at least a donor and likely a member. All fine – but she’s attempting to con voters to believe she’s pro-Liberal.”

  20. sprocket_ @ #641 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:07 pm

    Well known NSW Liberal Party identity, and former candidate for NSW President John Ruddick out of the blocks with the first slur of Steggal, tweeting this..

    “Why has Zali Steggall wiped her old Facebook? A friend had watched it for years. He says Zali is an ‘apoplectic lefty’ who is so pro Get-Up! he’s pretty sure Zali was at least a donor and likely a member. All fine – but she’s attempting to con voters to believe she’s pro-Liberal.”

    That sounds really stalky!

    Anyway, it’s not as if she denied any of that. She stood shoulder to shoulder with the Arch Conservatives’, like Ruddick, bete noir, Tim Flannery yesterday at her campaign launch.

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