The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.
UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.
A tiny sample set of 8 observations during Morrison’s PM-ship of the relationship between PM net approval and the LNP 2PP.
Having said that, the 2PP in this survey is rather better than would be expected given his net approval rating.
Given a larger than expected chunk of undecided went with Labor in the Vic election, it might be useful to keep an eye on how undecided track for the federal election.
Might help to rationalize the peaks and troughs if a ‘core support’ level tracked.
I dont think any regular pollsters track undecided now though…
This was interesting; it probably tracks the ‘satisfaction’ index of society as a whole.
As we become more stressed (no wage growth, mortgage stress, making ends meet) our preference in music changes to reflect the societal mood.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-29/listen-to-the-changing-sound-of-triple-js-hottest-100/10742150
Tony Burke was keen to be seen when the MDB inquiry was announced presumably seeing it as a world of opportunity for him.
It is presently biting him in the arse.
His excuse for not contributing to its work is disingenuous.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-29/sa-royal-commission-into-murray-darling-indicates-finding/10756534
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/media-diary/radio-future-for-macquarie-star-jones-still-uncertain/news-story/38887dac9c4d79773bf9eea0f1c757e0
https://outline.com/8YFWrN
Wonderful item (abt 2700 words). Complete drivel. After this – the news will seem like a re-run of “For Whom the Bell Tolls”.
Just an exercise in using the Outline extension. Working almost flawlessly (very occasional repeat required). 😇😇
As a mirror to what is going on with weather in Australia, we have this:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/01/if-you-thought-the-polar-vortex-was-bad-whats-happening-now-is-genuinely-shocking/
“If you think of climate change as a kind of disorder the planet has, one of the greatest symptoms is increasing extreme weather events,” meteorologist Nick Humphrey told Mother Jones this summer. “Prior to human-induced global warming, climate changes were relatively slow over the course of hundreds to thousands of years.”
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol
Up until yesterday I was using Outline as a pinned tab. Eventually this was not working at all.
I tried various methods to get Outline to work which resulted in using extensions for Firefox and Chrome with Windows 10.
These extensions work very well and are obtainable at:-
Firefox – Send to Outline
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/send-to-outline/?src=search
Chrome – Outline
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/outline-read-annotate-wit/daoolpmoieinofbnddaofhkhmbagfmnj
From the US.
If Newspoll really have reset their calendar it would mean their next poll will come out on the night of Sunday 10th February.
Just as Coalition MPs are coming back to Canberra on Monday 11th February for the opening of both houses’ sitting years on Tuesday 12th February.
Imagine how a 54-46 or 55-45 result would go down with Monday’s breakfast, the usual spin from The Australia notwithstanding!
On today’s “Ask A Liberal” Show…
“SABRA LANE: …but Labor say they saved Australia from the GFC. Australia was the envy of the world!
SCOMO: What they did was destroy John Howard’s surplus. They built school halls that nobody wanted, burnt down people’ houses, and killed workers, and gave money to dead people. Unemployment went through the roof. All this happened because Labor knows only how to, and wants only to wreck and then to rob people of their hard earned savings by taxing them to breaking point. Workers. Retirees. It doesn’t matter to Bill Shorten. They’re all fair game when it comes to his looting of the economy. It’s taken us in the Coalition all this time – 6 years – just to clean up the mess Labor left us all in. ”
All uttered in that panic-stricken, trademark way that only ScoMo has mastered.
The govt seems to have got one of those “We aren’t around over Xmas so people forget how bad we really are” bounces – if you can call a within-MOE increase to wipe out territory a “bounce”. Unfortunately for them, in a campaign they are front and centre, day in and day out.
Would take 53-47 on election night in a heart beat.
I look at the wonderful multifunction hall at my kids’ State Primary School, and reflect how useful it has been for nearly a decade there.
And I never considet that the money would have been better spent on a fake ‘Great Barrier Reef’ foundation or subsidising things such as dying fossil fuel industries or the negative gearing of holiday homes.
Morning all. Booleanbach I agree with your comment about music and the national mood. In the last recession we had back in the early 90s, there was a noticeable surge in popularity of grunge music like Nirvana, which had far from cheery lyrics.
As for the Newspolls, it could be out by MOE. If not it is as good as ScumMo could have dared hope for after a summer of resignations, defections and outright lies about policy and climate change. I am optimistic that Liberal fortunes will soon start to ebb once they face parliament again, with defeat looming.
KayJay
With all due respect the news about these media ‘personalities’ is not news.
The ratings period when Australian media pretty much shut down from 1 December through to 1 February is long gone. But they don’t know that
Most folks are back at work the day after New Year these days.
The long holiday died five years ago but the lazy media particularly the ABC takes a while to catch up
Another day on the Darling.
Trump’s enablers in Congress will vote this down in the Senate.
This is a great piece about the differences between public spending and bank loans:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1089898991289094146.html?fbclid=IwAR3Z6i8_k26IO5UpcquWhvP9HOV0KxO79C-fxqoJad_mZveSFuB72DKMk1c
BB @8:43. 8 years later, Morrison is still exploiting the victims of industrial accidents that resulted from dodgy private operators ignoring State OH&S laws.
Sgh1969 @ #114 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 8:55 am
Thanks for that. No respect required. Complete rubbish. Just testing Outline. I find it hard to believe that anybody is interested in this guff.
Apologies. 😇🙏
lizzie
Since FDOTM relocated to Tasmania they have published regular ‘fake news’ about how terrible it is to live there, in the vain hope they could stem the flow of mainlanders similarly moving to those greener (quite literally) pastures.
I hope all the fires are soon under control with no loss of life.
I wouldn’t get too cocky if I were Scott Morrison.
Why is Morrison banging on about Labor’s jobs-saving stimulus package 10 years ago when the images out of the MDB keep coming every day now, each one more horrendous than the last? What is his govt doing about that?
Steve777
Hear hear. Not only but also the State in question thought slack arske enforcement aka cutting red tape re OH+S and building inspections was the way to go.
Steve777
On the campaign trail or in any tv debates Shorten will destroy Morrison on these sort of crap talking (shouting?) points. All those town hall meetings he has done will stand him in good stead when the heat is on.
Shorten massively outcampaigned Turnbull, and Turnbull probably had a modicum of intelligence compared to Morrison.
These days, whether it’s on Insiders or elsewhere, Laura Tingle seems to find it hard to hide her dislike for our federal govt.
https://twitter.com/abc730/status/1089804215390633984
They have stated the scare campaign saying that Labor will put this country into recession which I know is more lies as they are getting desperate as they are going to be in opposition for three terms
This is weird. Has he lost it?
Scott Morrison on Sunrise accusing Labor of being “misleading” while suggesting in present tense that “Tim Hammond is standing down” before next election too. Um, he already quit causing a by-election
@MrPatrickGorman
now holds his seat he’s already gone. WTF!
Steve777, I thought I was immune to ScoMo’s old fashioned “It’s all Labor’s fault! ( and indeed their intention) to actually destroy the economy” horseshit, but I still can’t handle it. He gets under my collar every time. I feel a flash of anger, and have to pace around a bit to calm down.
No reason is ever given for why Labor would want to destroy an entire economy. We’re supposed to assume they simply enjoy doing it for its own sake.
ScoMo is easily the most irritating person in Australian politics. A liar and an oxygen thief. Yes, even worse than Pyne. I hope enough voters react to him similarly to me.
Re the lack of gratuitous flags on cars, flags draped on bodies this year, and so on, commented by some posters on PB.
In previous years the local council in Armidale made a big deal of Australia Day, with an Australia Day Carnival, camel races, thong throwing, sundry events to involve the population.
This year was a very scaled back ceremony in Central Park, a few speeches, a citizenship ceremony, and that was it. Australia Day pretty well did not happen here, at least as a widely celebrated public event.
If this has been the case with other local government bodies, it might partly explain the lack of flag mania.
DW reckons that 2014 was the last “good” Hottest 100; I reckon it peaked in 2007.
The rot set in when Triple J shifted from alternative music to “youth” c. 2010; I gave up when every news bulletin opened with “The opposition leader [Tony Abbott] says…”.
Double J (digital TV channel 200) was playing the 1998 Hottest 100 yesterday; vastly superior to 2018.
This is the Coalition’s ‘bounce back’ in Newspoll:
Edo Voloder
@edinvoloder
Newspoll on January 28th, 2019. ALP 53% v Libs/Nats 47%. If election held today Labor 89 (+20) seats, Coalition 56 (-20), seats others 5 seats. 47th consecutive loss for Coalition.. 8th for Scott Morrison.
Bill
This is a breathtaking ScumMo lie:
“It’s taken us in the Coalition all this time – 6 years – just to clean up the mess Labor left us all in”
So how does more than doubling the debt while reducing wage growth equate to “cleaning up the mess?”
At this point ScumMo’s folksy media spin, shameless lies, non-populist conservatism, and compromising business links, reminds me very much of the former Qld hillbilly dictator, Joh Bjelke Petersen.
People are not stupid (current federal government members excluded obviously!). The perception that tough times may be coming in the worlds’ economies may help Labor in any case. There were similar ‘scare’ campaigns by the Coalition in 1990 and 1993 – both times many people obviously decided that if tougher times were indeed on the way then Labor would be better for themselves personally, for the country in general, or both.
Morrison’s Australia Day wars and Cook fetish haven’t worked so he is getting more desperate by the day. Soon he may be predicting that the Devil and the Apocalypse will descend on Australia if the people vote Labor into government.
Confessions @ #123 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 9:06 am
Distraction. Let’s talk about anything that’s not our responsibility.
Scott Morrison as quoted by BB @8:43. That’s the problem, the Government’s message in the next few months will be a Gish Gallop of bullshit and outright lies that will mostly go unchallenged. To challenge that particular interview:
“What they did was destroy John Howard’s surplus.” It was destroyed through ill-advised tax cuts and middle class welfare introduced by Howard and Costello.
“They built school halls that nobody wanted” employed thousands, left useful legacy, help stave off double digit unemployment and recession
“burnt down people’ houses, and killed workers” scurrilous lies for which Morriscum should be condemned and made to apologise for. My answer at 9:00 refers. The Home Insulation Program employed thousands, left a useful legacy and helped stave off recession, unlike Morrison’s upcoming cash splash.
“and gave money to dead people.” So bloody what – and didn’t give money to mates to pretend to fix the reef.
“Unemployment went through the roof. “ LIE.
“All this happened because Labor knows only how to, and wants only to wreck and then to rob people of their hard earned savings by taxing them to breaking point. Workers. Retirees. It doesn’t matter to Bill Shorten. They’re all fair game when it comes to his looting of the economy.” Bullshit not worthy of a response (except “Bullshit!”).
“It’s taken us in the Coalition all this time – 6 years – just to clean up the mess Labor left us all in. ” what, by doubling the debt? Attacking health, education and welfare. Allowing wage theft? Demonising the unemployed? Sending electricity prices through the roof? Attempting to kill renewables? Chasing out auto manufacturers? Etc etc
EDIT: fixed.
Incognito works for this. I note they virtually admit admit the ‘miracle’ of job creation is actually just the result of population growth. As with Hockey and Abbott’s bullshit job promise population increase virtually guarantees it, recessions permitting, without them having to get off their well remunerated arses.
.
.
PM reveals re-election focus
Morrison puts election focus on creating 1.25m jobs
Scott Morrison will go to the election vowing to create 1.25 million jobs over the next five years, doubling down on Tony Abbott’s 2013 pledge to create one million jobs, in a move that could sideline Coalition plans to slash the immigration intake.
The Prime Minister will reveal the commitment in a speech in Brisbane today, placing the economy — and the Coalition’s economic record — at the forefront of his re-election strategy.
Mr Morrison will hammer the importance of a strong economy to every aspect of Australian life, and urge against complacency after more than a quarter of a century of economic growth.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/morrison-puts-election-focus-on-creating-125m-jobs/news-story/1fd8e87fbcc8f91f2bb2aba94f5f9d34
I suppose that if ScoMo does hold off the election until November, it may just give him the opportunity to join the 30 losing Newspoll club…
More lies! Only a week ago he was telling us he’d be prepared to legislate in order to ban people wearing boardies and such to citizenship ceremonies!
Morrison continues to spread the lie about deaths from pink batts. In fact the period during the Rudd government sponsored housing insulation had a lower than average accident rate.
FWIW
In my local council area (Macedon) there was no Australia Day celebrations except a low key citizenship ceremony in Kyneton on Saturday.
Most folks are worried about lack of rain and bushfires and don’t give a fig about this weekend.
Back to school. Holidays over.
Here’s our motormouth PM interviewed on Sunrise. Surprising the shite out of me to the point I almost fell off my chair, the interviewer says Labor were good economic managers for getting us through the GFC without going into recession!
https://twitter.com/sunriseon7/status/1089980986316644353
Rocket Rocket
Probably already happened back at his church. Could be a bit conflicted though as they are quite keen on seeing the End of Days get here, hence Jerusalem embassy moves. .
Sgh1969 @ #114 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 8:55 am
The BBC put out all their new shows over this period, my iplayer is chock full of goodies 😀
BB @9:13. “…but I still can’t handle it. He gets under my collar every time. I feel a flash of anger, and have to pace around a bit to calm down.”
Same here. My response @9:19 (toned down) was my reaction.
Attack. That’s all Scummo can do. He has no good story to tell.
C@tmomma @ #131 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 5:16 am
The Liberals are almost certain to bring up their half century of Newspoll loses, a rare Australian 50, so maybe there’s spot for one or two of them on the Ashes tour if they hold the election early enough. 🙂
Chris Bowen is onto it:
Chris Bowen
@Bowenchris
Record high household debt. Flat wages growth. Slowing economic growth. 1.1 million underemployed or unemployed. Weak consumption growth. And what do we get? A silly, & irresponsible scare campaign about Labor. Times up on the ATM Governments economic mismanagement.
The other thing the Sunrise interviewer said to Morrison is that the coalition have doubled debt since coming into govt. Morrison blathered away about Labor BAD, but the interviewer was having none of it.
What is going on when even froth and bubble commercial breakfast TV are pushing back against the Liberal lies?
BiGD,
A Coalition spot in the Australian Cricket team? Like this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0o8by05rtMY
😆
Rocket Rocket @ #133 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 5:17 am
People might not be stupid, but how engaged are they to recognise the difference between what they hear.
The hardest challenge for the Government is battling the reality that the wages of a large part of the electorate have barely changed during their tenure.
That’s one thing people can easily recognise!!! 🙂