Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 40
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  1. Don’t worry about what Morrison is saying. he’s just flapping around in a mad panic. Their own polling numbers must be utterly horrendous. He has nothing to fall back on as a record for this govt at all.

    No one is listening to the government any more. It’s done like a dinner.

  3. 1.25 million jobs in 5 years?

    Australia’s population today is 25.2 million: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument

    This has been increasing at an average of 1.6% per annum: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument

    Projecting forwards, population will grow by 2.1 million in 5 years.

    The size of the Australian workforce in December (including the unemployed) was 13.4 million: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0. This is 53% of the population.

    Assuming that these relationships hold, in 5 years’ time, the size of the workforce will be about 14.5 million, an increase of 1.1 million. This many jobs will be required to stop unemployment rising.

    So Scott is promising a very modest net increase in jobs over the increase in the size of the workforce (alternatively, a reduction in unemployment) of about 30,000 per annum.

    Not that anyone should believe him. It’s probably the best case estimate produced by some public servant, probably distorted beyond recognition or at least assuming that everything goes right, which it never does.

    Or maybe it’s another lie.

  4. I look at the wonderful multifunction hall at my kids’ State Primary School, and reflect how useful it has been for nearly a decade there.

    The school construction program of 2009 was highly effective at creating useful infrastructure and preventing a recession.

    It is unfortunate that the Gillard Government adopted a contractionary fiscal stance in 2012-2013 in pursuit of the pointless goal of a fiscal surplus (otherwise known as a PRIVATE SECTOR DEFICIT i.e increased household indebtedness).

    Apparently they were worried that the Reserve Bank of Australia could run out of keystrokes.

  5. Hilarious, a ‘salesman’ trying to tell Koch, who for all his blather IS and economic expert, that he knows more about economics than he does…. mind is still boggling.

  8. Morrison: I don’t think you can say that.

    Koch: I’m just quoting the Economist Magazine in London who gives both sides in politics basically a 5 star rating on economical management.

  9. They couldn’t be this stupid. Could they?

    Andrew FeinbergVerified account@AndrewFeinberg
    14m14 minutes ago

    Rumor is @realDonaldTrump is going to his hotel for dinner tonight.

    Roger Stone is apparently staying there tonight as well.

  14. A federal judge in Virginia has delayed Paul Manafort’s sentencing on tax and bank fraud convictions until a dispute over his cooperation with Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s office is resolved.

    Manafort’s sentencing hearing in federal court in Alexandria had been set for Feb. 8. A new date has not been scheduled.

    The postponement was sparked by Manafort’s case in D.C. federal court, where the former Trump campaign chairman pleaded guilty to crimes related to his undisclosed lobbying work. Prosecutors said Manafort lied to them repeatedly after committing to offer truthful information.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/judge-delays-virginia-sentencing-for-paul-manafort-tax-and-bank-fraud-case/2019/01/28/44b86c2c-2348-11e9-ad53-824486280311_story.html?utm_term=.5762030cc063

  17. If only we had a few ‘very informed’ senators here in Australia, especially on the ALP side of politics:
    https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/01/28/very-informed-elizabeth-warren-explains-exactly-why-wells-fargo-ceo-tim-sloan-should

    Then we might see some real legislation to follow up on the banking RC.
    Unfortunately all we are likely to get are ‘ well, they have all learned their lessons and so everything is now hunky dory – no need for any Govt. action’.

    Note to self: where did the phrase ‘hunky dory’ come from?

  18. Well, last night we had a Newspoll. Who predicted that? So maybe an Essential soon? In any case, if anyone wants a guess I’ll record it. (Mr Ed I have you down for ALP 54 / LNP 46). And hats off to those Early Risers!

  20. booleanbach @ #166 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 6:19 am

    If only we had a few ‘very informed’ senators here in Australia, especially on the ALP side of politics:
    https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/01/28/very-informed-elizabeth-warren-explains-exactly-why-wells-fargo-ceo-tim-sloan-should

    Then we might see some real legislation to follow up on the banking RC.
    Unfortunately all we are likely to get are ‘ well, they have all learned their lessons and so everything is now hunky dory – no need for any Govt. action’.

    Note to self: where did the phrase ‘hunky dory’ come from?

    Major projection.

    The RC hasn’t even reported yet.

  24. phoenixRED (Block)
    Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 6:11 am
    Pelosi is treating Trump like the spoiled child he is. Now that he has agreed to re-open government he is allowed to do his State of the Union address. Brilliant. She reminds us that mommy is in charge.

  26. hunky-dory (adj.)
    1866, American English (popularized c. 1870 by a Christy Minstrel song), perhaps an elaboration of hunkey “all right, satisfactory” (1861), from hunk “in a safe position” (1847) New York City slang used in street games, from Dutch honk “post, station, home,” in children’s play, “base, goal,” from Middle Dutch honc “place of refuge, hiding place.” A theory from 1876, however, traces it to Honcho dori, said to be a street in Yokohama, Japan, where sailors went for diversions of the sort sailors enjoy.

    https://www.etymonline.com/word/hunky-dory

  29. From Crikey Worm:

    The head of South Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin Royal Commission, Bret Walker, has indicated his inquiry will find parts of the original Murray-Darling Basin Plan (MDBP) breached the Water Act, as he prepares to deliver the final report to South Australia’s government today and publish publicly by February 1.

    According to the ABC, Walker has dismissed recollections from former water minister Tony Burke that the sustainable level of water “take” under the MDBP was determined solely by environmental concerns and that factoring economic and social concerns into environmental flows “misinterpreted the Water Act … in a crucial way”.

    Who thinks Burke is telling porkies?

  30. KayJay (Block)
    Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 7:16 am
    Yes that Outline extension works pretty well. Click on the offending link, wait a few seconds, then before the offender gets snooty click on the outline button (tiny 2 and 1/2 horizontal lines), and viola! Thanks for pointing me to it. 🙂

  33. Seeing we have a competitions for number of seats after the election and regular Newspolls. Someone should organise a competition for the 2pp vote.
    Here are the ALP 2PP into government historical figures:

    1943: 58.2
    1972: 52.7
    1983: 53.2
    2007: 52.7

    I’m betting it will be 52.5

  34. Professor Gillian Triggs will be a special guest speaker at the the launch of Greens candidate Steph Hodgins-May’s election campaign for the seat of Macnamara, February 17 at the St Kilda Town Hall.

    https://greens.org.au/vic/person/steph-hodgins-may

    Steph was the 2016 Greens candidate for Melbourne Ports where she achieved a 4.9% swing towards the Greens, and came within 477 votes of winning the seat and becoming the first woman to represent the Greens in the Federal House of Representatives.

    A dedicated environmental and social justice advocate, small business owner and St Kilda local, Steph is seeking to represent the Greens in Melbourne Ports to promote clean energy, safer pathways for refugees, greater investment in public services, and to improve the lives of our residents by addressing issues like housing affordability and marriage equality.

    A former planning and environmental lawyer, Steph has also worked as an advisor to the Australian Mission to the United Nations and as a volunteer lawyer at Environmental Justice Australia.

    Steph recognises that a changing climate affects us all, and she wants to see a sensible transition to a clean energy economy that will ensure sustainable jobs and a safe and healthy living environment.

  36. One thing the Coalition/LNP/CLP/Liberal Party/Nationals are unsurpassed at is coming up with, ‘It has nothing to do with us’, excuses.

  37. Who thinks Burke is telling porkies?

    I dont care. The people in the bush were either fully supportive of the aggressive uprising coming from the irrigators backed by the National Party or quietly sitting back enjoying the stress it was putting on the ALP government. And then they stood idly by as subsequent (Coalition made) detrimental changes were made, and as water was stolen and when administration governed by their own political leaders and their cronies corrupted the process.

    You want to find blame with Burke? Seriously? Blame lies with the very people this disaster is hurting and the toerags they continue to elect to represent them.

  38. Simon Crerar
    ‏Verified account @simoncrerar

    BuzzFeed management have informed us that 25 roles in Australia are facing redundancy. 11 new roles are being created in Sydney as business priorities shift. Consultation period at @BuzzFeedOz is to run at least a week. Mates: send beer. Haters: no, I will not learn to code

  40. You want to find blame with Burke? Seriously? Blame lies with the very people this disaster is hurting and the toerags they continue to elect to represent them.

    Who thinks if they are talking about Burke in the context of the current problems they are either so partisan as to be useless or so ignorant as to be the same useless.

  41. Simon² Katich® @ #186 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 6:42 am

    Who thinks Burke is telling porkies?

    I dont care. The people in the bush were either fully supportive of the aggressive uprising coming from the irrigators backed by the National Party or quietly sitting back enjoying the stress it was putting on the ALP government. And then they stood idly by as subsequent (Coalition made) detrimental changes were made, and as water was stolen and when administration governed by their own political leaders and their cronies corrupted the process.

    You want to find blame with Burke? Seriously? Blame lies with the very people this disaster is hurting and the toerags they continue to elect to represent them.

    Yep, subsequent actions makes the starting point largely irrelevant.

  42. Hard to feel that much sympathy for the buzzfeed guys. Perhaps they could offer to write pressers for Emma Hussar in their free time.

  43. Just building on Shellbell’s earlier post:

    Shellbell says:
    Tuesday, January 29, 2019 at 8:11 am

    Tony Burke was keen to be seen when the MDB inquiry was announced presumably seeing it as a world of opportunity for him.

    It is presently biting him in the arse.

    His excuse for not contributing to its work is disingenuous.

  44. His excuse for not contributing to its work is disingenuous.

    It is a shame royal commissions don’t have powers to summon witnesses or write letters to get to the truth, and this clown has run out of time and forgot to do it. The very very very worst kind of out of touch, legal elitism that brings the law into disrepute.

  45. Late Riser @ #180 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 10:26 am

    KayJay (Block)
    Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 7:16 am
    Yes that Outline extension works pretty well. Click on the offending link, wait a few seconds, then before the offender gets snooty click on the outline button (tiny 2 and 1/2 horizontal lines), and viola! Thanks for pointing me to it. 🙂

    Yes. I most use it for The Australian articles. Works mostly first time – occasional repeat necessary.😎

  47. A couple of question for balance.

    How much did the current Government contribute to the RC?

    Who refused a request to extend it?

  49. Peg, I am no fan of Burke. Talk smack about him all you want – he probably deserves it. But putting too much attention on that ABC article only serves to obfuscate the important issues.

  50. Simon² Katich® @ #199 Tuesday, January 29th, 2019 – 10:57 am

    Peg, I am no fan of Burke. Talk smack about him all you want – he probably deserves it. But putting too much attention on that ABC article only serves to obfuscate the important issues.

    I thought the following was interesting —

    Staff from the organisation that implements the plan, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA), were blocked by the Federal Government from giving evidence to the inquiry.

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