Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:
• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.
| 2013 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | 47.39 | 47.32 | 47.29 | 47.24 |
| Victoria | 36.78 | 37.89 | 38.25 | 38.57 |
| Queensland | 29.75 | 29.64 | 29.68 | 29.73 |
| WA | 16.21 | 15.58 | 15.37 | 15.21 |
| SA | 10.63 | 10.42 | 10.28 | 10.15 |
| Tasmania | 3.25 | 3.15 | 3.13 | 3.10 |
| ACT | 2.44 | 2.54 | 2.51 | 2.51 |
| NT | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.44 |
It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.
• The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.
• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.
TPOF
I’ve said it before and I don’t want to be too repetitive, but I’m very glad you’re here.
How thoroughly Unaustralian. 🙂
I have tried a number of times to post some examples of the use of the t-word. The posts have not made it to PB.
It’s a pity.
They are very apt examples…and can be easily found at vox[dot]com
anti semitic tropes – explanation from http://www.vox.com
29 Oct 2018 · Trump’s version of the caravan panic didn’t blame the Jews, but it’s not surprising, given longstanding anti-Semitic tropes, that the …
Search google at…..”anti semitic tropes – explanation”
It’s a beauty too.
How long before Australia Day is it appropriate to get ready with all the paraphernalia required?
TPOF
I also should add its not true. Labor has been very forward on some policy issues and has boosted its popularity as a result.
Just as Daniel Andrews did in Victoria.
The only debate is about how far in lock step with the LNP government Labor has to be. I don’t think they have to be as much as they think. I think they are making their job in government harder as a result. The electorate is more progressive than the parliament politicians as Essential keeps telling us.
Thats my complaint about Labor I think their perception of where the centre is and how they can win elections is wrong because of fear of past fear campaigns on issues like immigration. Valid fears as history has demonstrated. However the politics has changed.
So I hope you are right and that Labor has a strong human rights agenda on its list of things to do including with Constitutional Reform as part of the Republic process.
As so many say. The government sets the agenda elections have consequences and Daniel Andrews did not suffer from being progressive in the least. The fear campaigns are losing their bite as reality has taken over. Helped no doubt on immigration that the LNP have shown the boats can be stopped
So that bogeyman is off the table despite the desperate efforts to do a Weekend at Bernie’s on that one
For the remarkably little it’s worth, I have not called nath “all kinds of things.” I described them as pimping out hate and blowjobs for political reasons. That’s fair comment. I do not resile from it.
lizzie @ #195 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:19 am
Me too.
a r
Where’s the ref to a dress code pls?
Does it include banning clown shorts?
Trump is unhinging on Fox News again.
@esseeeayeenn tweets
PM: “Humphrey we’re in trouble.”
H: “Yes PM.”
PM: “People say we’re out of touch. Racist sexist homophobic climate change deniers.”
H: “Yes PM.”
PM: “I need a circuit breaker.”
H: “Yes PM.”
PM: “I’ll double down on the culture wars.”
H: “That would be … courageous PM.”
#auspol https://twitter.com/esseeeayeenn/status/1084276629721903104/photo/1
@esseeeayeenn tweets
PM: “Humphrey we’re in trouble.”
H: “Yes PM.”
PM: “People say we’re out of touch. Racist sexist homophobic climate change deniers.”
H: “Yes PM.”
PM: “I need a circuit breaker.”
H: “Yes PM.”
PM: “I’ll double down on the culture wars.”
H: “That would be … courageous PM.”
#auspol https://twitter.com/esseeeayeenn/status/1084276629721903104/photo/1
I can think of very few scenarios in which that latter assertion would be supported by anything factual. None of them are plausible.
a r @ #197 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 1:21 pm
Maybe baseball caps with ‘Make Australia Great Again’?
Teamed with multi-coloured pyjama bottom shorts?
guytaur
That amounts to trust us the public is dumb. If that argument was true Whitlam would never have won an election.
___________________________________
What happened within the Whitlam government – and how it dealt with the combined forces lined up against it – was a textbook lesson for all subsequent Labor governments – none more so than Hawke, who number one rule was to do everything different from Whitlam.
The question is one of priorities and possibilities. For example, I would like to see job services taken away from the rapacious private sector. But how much would it cost to unwind contracts, and how much disruption, not to mention the need to acquire office space, set up a coherent system and hire the right staff (not necessarily those currently employed in the private sector). On top of all this, an incoming Labor government has to make sure that it has a thoroughly developed and tested replacement model. All this takes time, resources and information not available to an Opposition party.
As for dumb voters, it is enough to say that fear of change is a more powerful driver than the promise of change in the most general circumstances. Which is why right wing parties rely on fear most (and Turnbull was outraged when Labor stole their no 1 trick for the Medicare campaign in 2016).
The best change is achieved by careful thoughtful planning and accurate information leading to high-quality evidence based decisions. This is not achieved by making headline promises that may not be capable of being fulfilled or allow your opponents to use to drive the agenda. For example, the surplus shit that Wayne Swan bought into and obscured his significant achievements as Treasurer.
Confessions says:
Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 1:28 pm
lizzie @ #195 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:19 am
TPOF
I’ve said it before and I don’t want to be too repetitive, but I’m very glad you’re here.
Me too.
______________________________
Thanks Lizzie and Confessions. I try to be helpful
Sohar says:
Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 12:01 pm
Briefly strikes me as a bit weird.
Ya know, “ts” are used against all kinds of people – against LGBTQI people, against women, people of colour, First Peoples and immigrants, against dissenters and working people. Lies and myths – “Ts” – are used here against Labor – against the political organ of working people. I have every right to contest these usages, which are calculated to defile the people I know and trust and who work for the election of a Labor government.
That’s not weird. Silence would be weird. I have had enough of the hate-manufacturers.
Trump’s interview on Fox News.
https://twitter.com/JudgeJeanine/status/1084278297180151808
Guytaur
TPOF
I also should add its not true. Labor has been very forward on some policy issues and has boosted its popularity as a result.
______________________________________
Totally agree. It has been forward on the things it knows it can deliver. Specifically, tax and spending measures. Not that these are not controversial – especially the tax – but that it has done its homework and the information is available publicly on which to base its policies. Further it has chosen the grounds on which it is prepared to fight, rather than allow or buy into the Coalition playbook.
The longer it goes on, the more clever it seems.
There are gaps, of course, but the framework is there. They are not going to do everything in three years anyway. So, like Howard, they are planning a careful but productive first term leading to a campaign to win a second term with more and deeper changes on offer.
Confessions
This may be what Trump was referring to, from April 2018.
.
.
A major Chicago cab operator reportedly was loaned at least $20 million in the past year by the father-in-law of President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen.
The cab company owner is reportedly mentioned with her husband in FBI warrants used to raid Cohen’s home, office and hotel room last week.
That taxi mogul, Yasya Shtayner, with her husband, Semyon Shtayner, manage 22 cabs owned by Cohen in Chicago, along with more than 300 other cabs
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/19/father-in-law-of-trump-lawyer-michael-cohen-loaned-millions-to-cab-mogul.html
I have just read Bruce Pascoe’s essay on Aboriginal agriculture, and I’m very, very angry. Why is this information not taught in schools, or tertiary institutions? Why do all the media outlets treat the indigenous like fools?
And some politicians 😡 When groups in WA wanted to live outside towns in small communities, because they were happier and healthier, their services were taken away.
https://meanjin.com.au/essays/11312/
TPOF
There is the problem. The failures of the Whitlam government were outdone by its successes. Quantity of time in government does not outweigh the quality of the policies done.
Yes Labor went too far one way with Whitlem. Now they are going too far the other way is my point.
However in the election period Whitlam won from opposition. Thats something Labor should remember. That was successful election campaigning. The problems were in the governing. Lack of experience. Not a problem with the current Labor government.
So they have the knowledge to do effective radical change to undo the damage wrought by the LNP.
Of course starts with Canada style media reform and Murdoch style propaganda will not be one of the things a Labor government will have to cope with.
That alone will be a massive improvement on the ability of governments to govern in the interests of the Australian people and not for corporations. Yes I am not dismissing the very good policy reforms Labor has put on the table in with an integrity commission the PBO new role and political donation reform.
I agree with you about the surplus shit of Wayne Swan and thats why I like the PBO and new role for Treasury. No more the Treasurer has to predict a surplus.
I am talking about what Labor has voted for and will have to undo by legislation like with the AA Bill.
I thought it was wrong for Labor to vote for it. I have no doubts they will review and change it because they will have to or lose major investment opportunities in for example the space and defence industries.
I just thought they got the politics wrong and made their campaigning job harder.
My point is that Daniel Anderws proved you can be progressive and win elections and I don’t think Victoria is way way out there compared to the rest of the country.
Edit: I also don’t think Queensland is either. One example. Dutton. Not doing well in his seat from all reports. So how many marginal does Labor have to cater for in Queensland? A lot less than the Canberra bubble would suggest.
poroti:
Trump is just trying to deflect from his own troubles.
lizzie @ #205 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 1:30 pm
Is this what Smugmo thinks is appropriate..
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b49c3f228bdfefbadc7c12794b4eed28?width=650
More Trump, including his answer to whether he’s working for Russia.
https://twitter.com/JudgeJeanine/status/1084281902566178817
briefly @ #213 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 1:40 pm
Many would say you manufacture hate on the Greens.
Justice Bader Ginsburg (85) is recovering from an operation to remove malignant nodules on her lung:
https://abcnews.go.com/beta-story-container/Politics/amid-speculation-supreme-court-justice-ruth-bader-ginsburgs/story?id=60314528
She’s been in indifferent health for a while now. It’s crucial that she stays on the bench until the next election. Though diminutive, she’s quite a trooper:
[‘In 1999, Ginsburg was diagnosed with colon cancer; she underwent surgery that was followed by chemotherapy and radiation therapy. During the process, she did not miss a day on the bench.[109] Ginsburg was physically weakened by the cancer treatment, and she began working with a personal trainer. Since 1999, Bryant Johnson, a former Army reservist attached to the Special Forces, has trained Ginsburg twice weekly in the justices-only gym at the Supreme Court. In spite of her small stature, Ginsburg saw her physical fitness improve since her first bout with cancer; she was able to complete 20 push-ups in a session before her 80th birthday.
On February 5, 2009, she again underwent surgery, this time for pancreatic cancer. Ginsburg had a tumor that was discovered at an early stage. She was released from a New York City hospital on February 13 and returned to the bench when the Supreme Court went back into session on February 23, 2009. On September 24, 2009, Ginsburg was hospitalized in Washington DC for lightheadedness following an outpatient treatment for iron deficiency and was released the following day.
On November 26, 2014, she had a stent placed in her right coronary artery after experiencing discomfort while exercising in the Supreme Court gym with her personal trainer.
On November 8, 2018, she was hospitalized after fracturing three ribs in a fall in her office at the Supreme Court. A day later it was reported that Ginsburg had returned to official judicial work after a day of observation. An outpouring of public support followed. A CT scan of her ribs following her November 8 fall showed cancerous nodules in her lungs. On December 21, Ginsburg underwent a left-lung lobectomy at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center to remove the nodules. For the first time since joining the Court more than 25 years earlier, Ginsburg missed oral argument in January 2019 while she recuperated.’]
TPOF
You’re fine with blatant misrepresentation, aren’t you.
I link to an article about Australia Day and citizenship that clarifies what Morrison has said about it, and also what Shorten’s response is, and somehow in your mind, I am making “demands” of Labor to commit to “”huge changes” before the election.
You seem to believe you are a mind-reader and are happy to verbal individuals’ positions even though I have never stated what my position is.
Grimace states he would prefer a Lib retain Forrest over a Green winning it to which Briefly says nothing like “Oh, no that wouldn’t do”.
If a Greens supporter/member had commented s/he would prefer a Lib retaining Forrest rather than a Labor winning it, there would be wall to wall outrage for days on end with the usual suspects jumping all over it.
But that’s okay, isn’t it. The real enemy is the Greens, not the Coalition.
Confessions
Sure doesn’t look like it has any relevance. Smear by association is about it.
Victorian Labor has benefited from the counter-productive campaiging of the Liberals. By running homophobic and sexist social policy lines, by opposing effective climate change policies, the Liberals have been campaigning against themselves. They have been urging their longest-standing supporters to defect. Not at all surprisingly, many long-time Liberal voters have – at least temporarily – embraced Labor.
The Liberals have abandoned their own supporters, who quite obviously are angry enough to vote for their traditional opponents. This says something about Labor’s progressive reputation. But it says at least as much about the regressive – the reactionary – voices that have conquered the Liberals. Unless the LNP reform their policies and their culture, they will experience continung and deepening rejection by their hitherto most committed and dependable supporters. We’ve seen this in Wagga Wagga, Wentworth and Victoria. We’re seeing it reflected in the national polling numbers. We will see it amplified in the coming election.
more rah rah support for Credlin to run in Mallee in fairfax/Nine media. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-peta-credlin-has-become-the-liberal-party-s-great-right-hope-20190110-p50qp4.html
I hope she runs – she would lose by a mile.
I lived in Mallee many years ago, but it so conservative I am sure it has not changed a lot – the people are extremely right wing and insular – they hate canberra and ‘the city’. It is solidly nationals. Some of the small business townies in Horsham might vote liberal, but most see them as the city and canberra party and don’t trust them much. I think they would have grown to like Howard, but would have thought every lib leader since was a city dickhead or wanker (and yet they had Broad as their member – so it is the city rather than dickhead factor that is the issue). They’d love Pauline Hanson. If people defect from the nats they’ll go shooters, PHON, other far right (the main local paper – the Wimmera Mail Time editor was very sympathetic to the League of Rights when I was there) or indie. Nats will still get preferences ahead of the libs. I’d reckon this seat has got more chance of going to right wing indie (think Anning rather than McGowan).
There is no way they will vote for Credlin when she hasn’t lived there for years. although being from that part of the world explains why Credlin is such a toxic individual – it is Victoria’s FNQ – really racist, closed-minded and intolerant of difference – no other country area in Victoria compares for lack of diversity and inbred (literally and figuratively?) intolerance. Pity is, Credlin’s smart enough to know that, so will bide her time for a safe lib city seat (not too many of them around for a hard right abbott camp loon though). She’s probably comfortable being the power behind the throne, but once the abbott fraction get thrashed at the election and the party either splits or purges the RWNJs in order to be politically viable, she may try to win a seat. Warringah might be vacant after the election and there will be a swag of others.
Cohen & Trump have a Ukrainian connection..
Laura Cohen has more connections to Trump than simply being married to the man who was his personal lawyer for many years. Her Ukrainian father, Fima Shusterman, introduced Michael Cohen to Trump, longtime Associated Press reporter Seth Hettena wrote in his book Trump / Russia: A Definitive History published in May. A former federal investigator in the book alleges that Fima Shusterman could have been Trump’s business partner on the quiet and that Trump employed Cohen within the Trump Organization “as a favor to Shusterman.” Michael Cohen denied the claims.
https://www.newsweek.com/who-michael-cohen-wife-laura-shusterman-1242311
Trump seems to have a fixation with Eastern Europe for some reason
The Silver Bodgie
Oh gawd!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/waste-crisis-looms-as-thousands-of-solar-panels-reach-end-of-life-20190112-p50qzd.html
More Trump. At several points you can see Pirro trying to get him to stop as he rants on and on. Was he locked in his ensuite with aides outside trying to bang the door down?
https://twitter.com/JudgeJeanine/status/1084284496244105216
Rex…..Many would say you manufacture hate on the Greens.
I do not resile from my critique of the Gs, who purport to be Labor-positive or Labor-friendly but who actually campaign against Labor all the time.
The voting power of renters:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahryan/renters-elections-australia
Peg
It’s not blatant misrepresentation. It might be if I said ‘always’, but I didn’t. And I was not referring to anything you posted today (and clearly made no reference to it).
It would be really helpful if some of the people here took some remedial reading comprehension classes – or learnt as much English as your basic immigrant is required to know – before they rush into cyber-print oozing outrage.
Sceptic says: Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 2:01 pm
Trump seems to have a fixation with Eastern Europe for some reason
**********************************************************
When no American bank would loan Trump a single dollar he turned to Easter Europe for money ….. it is believed to involve ‘money laundering’
A Timeline of Trump’s Deals and Investments in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Trump claims he has “nothing to do with Russia,” but the last two decades of his business dealings tell a different story. He once referred to himself as the “King of Debt,” and yet, beginning in 2006, he began spending hundreds of millions of dollars in cash on new properties, including golf courses. This shift, from borrowing money to finance his deals to paying for transactions in full with cash, parallels his move toward foreign licensing deals. Many of them point toward lasting business relationships with individuals and companies inextricably linked to Russia and the former Soviet Union.
https://themoscowproject.org/explainers/a-timeline-of-trumps-deals-and-investments-in-eastern-europe-and-central-asia/
Tower of secrets: the Russian money behind a Donald Trump skyscraper
https://www.ft.com/trumptoronto
Trumps ties to Russian mafia & the tax frauds that go with it will be his undoing…
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/a-brief-history-of-michael-cohens-criminal-ties-628875/
Glenn Simpson, the private investigator who was independently hired to examine Trump’s Russia connections during the real estate mogul’s presidential run, testified before the House Intelligence Committee that Cohen “had a lot of connections to the former Soviet Union, and that he seemed to have associations with organized crime figures in New York and Florida – Russian organized crime figures,” including Garber.
Sceptic @ #229 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 11:01 am
Don Jnr once boasted that the Trump Organisation gets a lot of its money from Russia.
TPOF
Hardly outraged. Projection and put-downs are all the go in your repertoire.
I am obviously on your mind as you mention me yet again for purely innocent reasons of course.
Pegasus…
Grimace states he would prefer a Lib retain Forrest over a Green winning it to which Briefly says nothing like “Oh, no that wouldn’t do”.
If a Greens supporter/member had commented s/he would prefer a Lib retaining Forrest rather than a Labor winning it, there would be wall to wall outrage for days on end with the usual suspects jumping all over it.
But that’s okay, isn’t it. The real enemy is the Greens, not the Coalition.
Peg, what we believe is that you do actually hope the Liberals do well enough to prevent Labor from winning in its own right and winning strongly. This is the goal of G-campaigns. How should we choose between our opponents? We know we are hated by you. We are the scapegoats. Should I argue with my friend, grimace, on your behalf? I know grimace. He is none of the things that the Gs would have the world believe about Labor.
briefly,
lol I realise you think you are many things but now you are straying into the super-natural of believing you are a mind reader. Cue spooky music – Enjoy the journey.
Well here in glorious Perth where the religious Right is working hard to take over the Liberal party,the local rags run reprints of NEWS CORP RWNJs 6 pr radio talk back reads press releases as comment,NEWS CORP instead of Perth now or the SMH
The next couple of months should be interesting that christ for the net your not stuck with the same old same old Radio,TV news which leans right on matter what channel & Cricket in Summer then AFL in winter it drives you mad it just boring