The age of entitlement

Prospects for the states’ seat entitlements in the medium term, and the Coalition’s chances of having any left to their name in Victoria after the coming election.

Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:

• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.

2013 2016 2018 2019
NSW 47.39 47.32 47.29 47.24
Victoria 36.78 37.89 38.25 38.57
Queensland 29.75 29.64 29.68 29.73
WA 16.21 15.58 15.37 15.21
SA 10.63 10.42 10.28 10.15
Tasmania 3.25 3.15 3.13 3.10
ACT 2.44 2.54 2.51 2.51
NT 1.56 1.50 1.47 1.44

It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.

• The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.

• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,220 comments on “The age of entitlement”

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  4. Guytaur

    My concern is not with comparisons with Canada immigration or to defend Pezzullo’s empire. My concern is with comments that are based on prejudice rather than fact and cognitive dissonance more commonly associated with the right wing of the population.

    There are limits to the number of people we can settle in this country – as there are in Canada. There are also far more refugees (and I’m talking people who have been determined as refugees here) who want to come to either country than can be accommodated. By that I mean that they can be provided with the services that will enable them to be integrated successfully into the society. As refugees are often traumatised they require a higher level of services than a typical immigrant.

    There is also the issue of community trust in the immigration program management of these countries. Regardless of the politics of the leadership, there has to be trust in the management if there is to be social acceptance of immigration and refugees. In Australia and now, more terribly, in the USA there has been deliberate whipping up of hysteria. In Canada, the opposite. But the misuse and abuse of minorities and the conjuring of external threats is different to the orderly management of immigration by the bureaucrats involved.

    As for Ms Alqunun, this is not about either a race between countries to offer a visa or some sort of choice made by her. She was assessed as a refugee and was looking for protection in a country where she could safely settle. Canada offered her a visa. She is safe. That is all there is to it. That means the place she would have taken if she had come to Australia will go to another refugee who needs to be settled.

    Some of the stuff here is absolute bullshit. She is no more special than any other refugee we don’t know about because they are not the subject of worldwide headlines. But I bet there are many refugees who are just as, if not more, desperate for resettlement who are out of the public eye.

  5. briefly

    You can’t have it both ways. Either the definition of trope as you have so far described it applies equally to Kevin Rudd or its does not. This is the point Don is making with you.

    This is the Wikipedia definition and if you don’t like definition go look in the Oxford dictionary.

    A literary trope is the use of figurative language, via word, phrase or an image, for artistic effect such as using a figure of speech. The word trope has also come to be used for describing commonly recurring literary and rhetorical devices, motifs or clichés in creative works.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trope_(literature)

    What you are trying to say from what I see is the use of a particular type of Trope.
    One used for racist purposes.

  6. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-13/sa-to-consider-banning-single-use-plastics/10711906

    The South Australian Government is considering banning single-use plastic products such as straws and cutlery.

    Environment Minister David Speirs will launch two discussion papers today seeking the views of South Australians on single-use plastics as well as expanding the container deposit scheme.
    :::
    Comment on both discussion papers closes on February 22.

    They are available on the yourSAy website.

  7. Interestingly SKY played Shorten in full and had Morrison in a corner box talking in Jabiru … so SKY basically gave Shorten the prominent hearing …

    One wonders if there’s been a change of ‘policy’ in Murdochland.

    After Dark will show how much this might be the case … though I never watch to know what they’re saying (I only go by the reports)

  9. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-13/pm-scott-morrison-jabiru-territory-federal-election-pledge/10710968

    The 2019 federal election campaign has kicked off with a political football in the Northern Territory, as both major parties scramble to announce $220 million for Kakadu National Park.

    Key points:
    The PM is flying from Darwin to Jabiru to make an announcement
    The Coalition Government is expected to offer funding to Jabiru to help transition the town from mining to tourism
    The NT Government and Aboriginal traditional owners have been negotiating with the Commonwealth to help fund a masterplan for the town
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison will touch down on the edge of the national park this morning where it is understood he will offer a lifeline to the struggling Territory township of Jabiru.

    Mr Morrison made an 11th-hour rush to the tropical north to announce a $216 million package to help Jabiru and the Canberra-controlled national park in an apparent bid to beat his opponent Bill Shorten to the glory.

    Mr Shorten’s Labor team were scheduled to arrive in the NT this evening and make a similar announcement for $220 million for Kakadu.

  10. TPOF

    What Raheem has demonstrated is a major flaw in our immigration system compared to to Canada.

    The special circumstances was the fact she was able to live stream and thus gain world wide attention to her plight. You can be sure we will see more of this just like we did with Black Lives Matter.

    The secrecy that keeps those in danger vulnerable to bureaucratic process because people don’t care is going to go away.

    This is the new political reality no mater how much those without empath and compassion try and pretend its other wise.

  12. Australia Day citizenship ceremonies:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/13/scott-morrison-forces-councils-to-hold-citizenship-ceremonies-on-australia-day

    A change to the Australian Citizenship Ceremonies Code means councils will be forced to hold a citizenship ceremony on 26 January, another on 17 September, and institute a dress code that bans thongs and board shorts.
    :::
    Previously, councils were under no obligation to hold ceremonies on any set days. The change will affect all 537 councils and will take effect from 2020.

  13. From the same article:

    But he said Labor was “not going to move Australia Day”. “One thing I pledge is that, under me, Australia Day will always be a public holiday,” Shorten said.

  14. Guytaur,

    Like the Saudi rep said to the Thai officials. “Perhaps it would be better if you had taken her phone rather than her passport.”

  15. Interesting.

    Jay NordlingerVerified account@jaynordlinger
    4h4 hours ago
    After the 2016 election, Trump considered Tulsi Gabbard for a foreign-policy post. The two met at the Tower. As Americans learn more about Gabbard, I think they’ll realize why she was considered at all. Not such strange bedfellows, by a long shot.

  17. It seems from the entitlement info that William put out that every state is losing to Mighty Victoria, which is galloping along with all the interstate refugees rolling in, desperate for a decent coffee, 4 distinct seasons and a progressive political culture.

  18. briefly @ #146 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 11:51 am

    Don, a “trope” has a very specific use in understanding anti-semitic imagery. Tropes are canards. They are intentional lies, distortions and stereotypes that are used and reused. Look up the phrase “anti Semitic trope’. There are many of them. Classically, they depict Jews as untrustworthy, greedy, dirty, lying, diseased, unworthy, criminal, as conspiratorial and clandestine, among other things. Rex Douglas invokes some of these values to describe Labor. He uses tropes – canards – lies – stereotypes – to foment hate for Labor-as-Labor.

    I have Jewish heritage among my very-mixed ancestry and though am not at a religious Jew am sensitive to the kinds of language used about Jews. Rex Douglas uses similar kinds of expressions and meanings to describe Labor. They are a defamation gizmo. I think they should be challenged. I will continue to do so.

    You’ve used a rhetorical question to suggest that the use of the term “trope” to analyse anti-semitic expression is a “cancer that is spreading worldwide”. Perhaps you don’t realise, but this depiction is also classically anti-Semitic. Jews have frequently been described in exactly those terms. Are you anti-Semitic? Do you wish to prevent or obscure the understanding of defamtory language, specifically as it has been used against Jews?

    Don’t be bloody ridiculous.

  20. Briefly’s finally gone troppo, and in dry heat too. No mean feat. Myself and Don don’t get along, but I have never suggested that he is what Briefly asserted. THe Cabal is turning on itself, as all criminal fraternities do eventually.

  22. nath @ #169 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 12:20 pm

    It seems from the entitlement info that William put out that every state is losing to Mighty Victoria, which is galloping along with all the interstate refugees rolling in, desperate for a decent coffee, 4 distinct seasons and a progressive political culture.

    And then when they get there, they find you. 😆

  23. Goll

    Briefly cannot have his own definition.

    He wants to make a case using just the word trope to mean a specific type of trope he has to say so.

    Otherwise he has to defend his argument rather than just using a label to insult and denigrate another bludger

  25. He’s just called Don an anti-Semite for questioning the usage of the word ‘trope’. Calling RD a ‘quasi Neo-Nazi’ and calling me all sorts of foul names, which I will not repeat in case Mavis is lurking. Briefly has gone mad, he’s gone completely mad.

  26. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 12:25 pm
    nath @ #169 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 12:20 pm
    It seems from the entitlement info that William put out that every state is losing to Mighty Victoria, which is galloping along with all the interstate refugees rolling in, desperate for a decent coffee, 4 distinct seasons and a progressive political culture.
    And then when they get there, they find you.
    ____________________________________
    It’s slightly evil of me but when I think of Confessions living in Albany, which she described as ‘boganville’, it makes me a bit happy. If only all my detractors suffered a similar fate!

  30. Dutton the Potato – making Queensland safer – for criminals…..

    Australia’s leading criminal intelligence agency plans to recall dozens of operatives from state offices to Canberra, prompting fears of a brain drain as staff take redundancy payouts rather than move to the nation’s capital.

    The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission said the overhaul would ensure its staff were “in the right location, with the right skills” to combat serious and organised crime. But staff have demanded a clearer justification for the change that will ­affect about 65 of the agency’s 800 workers. The restructure will be felt mostly in Queensland, where one-third of about 90 staff expect to be asked to move.

    Community and Public Sector Union deputy president Lisa Newman said the commission risked losing some of its best intelligence officers since “few if any” interstate staff would contemplate moving.

    “It’s quite mystifying because it’s been delivering a high standard of work; it’s highly regarded here and internationally, and people are puzzled as to why this is happening,” Ms Newman said.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/its-canberra-or-quits-for-top-crime-busters/news-story/a41fd7226eef807ce0d50db061944ccf

  32. It is somewhat unfortunate for Scotty’s flag wrapping tub thumping that Australia Day, being the sacrosanct 26 January, this year falls on a Saturday. So forget what you normally do on a Saturday, and go all Bogan culture wars with Scotty – oh and on the public holiday in lieu on Monday 28th, well just do whatever.

    Bill Shorten knows what Australia Day means to most hardworking Australians, a day off on full pay. So his simple message is ‘Australia Day will always be a Public Holiday under a Labor Government’.

  33. On Australia Day Morrison is dividing Australians. Not bringing us together. He is convincing more Australians we need to change the date.

    I remember when it really did bring most Australians together. All that has changed is that we now take the objections of those that label it Invasion Day more seriously and think about is it practical to change the day or is there another way to address the invasion day issues raised.

    Morrison is making it more not less practical to move the date than to look at the history on the day with multilayer shade and see the shame of what happened on that day as well as the pride of how we have progressed from a convict colonial outpost to a fully fledged independent nation.

  34. Peg

    I’d definitely support a ban on plastic cutlery. Quite apart from the environmental angle, the knives don’t cut and nothing fits hands or lips. Fingers before plastic!!
    🙂

  35. For example of the use of the word ‘trope’…

    http://www.vox.com
    The UK Labour Party’s anti-Semitism crisis, explained
    anti-semitic trope – explanation from http://www.vox.com
    29 Mar 2018 · Jeremy Corbyn’s comments on an anti-Semitic mural have … The problem is that this tension creates a tendency on the left to indulge in anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and tropes …

    And

    http://www.vox.com
    The conspiracy theory that led to the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting …
    anti-semitic trope – explanation from http://www.vox.com
    29 Oct 2018 · His response was an attack that was both anti-Semitic — an attack … given longstanding anti-Semitic tropes, that the gunman … The fact that refugees are by definition legal immigrants …

    I did not say Don is anti-semitic. I asked them if they were. I think it’s a fair question.

    I have not called nath ‘all kinds of things’. I called them a pimp…specifically, said they pimp out hate and blowjobs for political reasons. They do that. I do not resile from the description.

    nath uses tropes to assail Bill Shorten. They defile Shorten by the use of myths and lies. I take exception to that. So shoot me.

  38. Barney langford says:
    Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 11:39 am
    William,
    given we have electorates of much more than 100,000 now, and in the case of ACT prior to 2019 150,000, do you reckon ALP if it wins, might negotiate with the Nats to increase the size of the parliament?

    Section 24 of the Constitution limits the size of the HoR to twice the size of the Senate. To increase the number of HoR divisions in any significant way would require in increase in the size of the Senate. We already have 12 Senators per state. The USA manage with two Senators per state. It is well past time that we started talking about amending the Constitution.

  41. We used to be a laid-back sort of country & society.
    Now (some) politicians want to regiment ceremonialise us and mandate not only the day of the year we can become citizens but the dress code for the ceremony. Next it will be to require a full military band with military parade.
    This is NOT WHO WE ARE or have been, nor should be.
    It takes away some of the cultural characteristics that make us unique; and I for one have had enough of these moves by populist/nationalist politicians.

  42. TPOF @ #142 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    I’m not sure what that point is.

    Simples. I made a rhetorical point that Australia generally treats refugees (and other migrants, particularly non-white ones) with disdain. Of course Nauru and Manus are relevant. As is the fact that some within the government made a lot of noise about fast-tracking white people from South Africa. They may have failed, for now, but they’re still there.

    Your own references show that we turn away ~80% of the people who seek asylum here. And that once Australia has hit its annual cap it’s not going to consider taking even one person extra, no matter how urgent their circumstances.

  43. The use of the word ‘trope’…for example:

    http://www.vox.com
    The conspiracy theory that led to the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting …
    anti-semitic trope – explanation from http://www.vox.com

    29 Oct 2018 · His response was an attack that was both anti-Semitic — an attack … given longstanding anti-Semitic tropes, that the gunman … The fact that refugees are by definition legal immigrants …

    And

    http://www.vox.com
    The UK Labour Party’s anti-Semitism crisis, explained
    anti-semitic trope – explanation from http://www.vox.com

    29 Mar 2018 · Jeremy Corbyn’s comments on an anti-Semitic mural have … The problem is that this tension creates a tendency on the left to indulge in anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and tropes …

    In spite of what nath has said, I did not say Don was anti-semitic. I asked them if they were. That’s a fair question.

    I have not called nath “all kinds of things”. I’ve called them a pimp and said they pimp out hate and blowjobs for political reasons, which they have done. I do not resile from the description. Nath uses tropes – lies and myths that defame – for political reasons very frequently.

    The point is that tropes have been used to vilify Jews for 2 Millenia. Tropes are used against people of colour, against LGBTQI people, against women, against First Peoples…..and so on…. There are bludgers who use tropes against Labor.

    I make absolutely no apology whatsoever for describing this language for what it indubitably is.

  44. Dutton’s move to consolidate The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission is just another in a long list of ‘national security’ actions (many without merit) taken by him & his ‘advisors’. It is all he and the LNP have to work with. All other portfolios are on the nose with the public; so he keeps searching for more & more (bizarre) moves to try and show that the LNP are strong on ‘national security’.
    Pathetic really.
    How the ALP will unwind some of this will be tricky.

  45. http://www.vox.com
    The UK Labour Party’s anti-Semitism crisis, explained
    anti-semitic trope – explanation from http://www.vox.com

    29 Mar 2018 · Jeremy Corbyn’s comments on an anti-Semitic mural have … The problem is that this tension creates a tendency on the left to indulge in anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and tropes …

    …an example of fine use of the t word….

  46. How the ALP will unwind some of this will be tricky.

    __________________________________________

    Pretty much the biggest problem Labor faces when it gains government. There are so many poison pills and landmines left by the Coalition that Labor is very wise not to commit to what it is not sure it can deliver.

    When Peg and Rex et al jump up and down and demand that Labor commit to huge changes before the election it only provides fodder for the Coalition, which then distorts the proposals and uses it for another fear campaign. Like the Hawke government on taking power, I’m sure Labor have a much bigger agenda than it is announcing. But what stays on the agenda and what is struck off or downgraded has to wait until it can see the real books, not the stuff the Coalition publishes for public consumption.

  49. An example of the use of the t-word…

    http://www.vox.com
    The conspiracy theory that led to the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting …
    anti-semitic trope – explanation from http://www.vox.com
    29 Oct 2018 · His response was an attack that was both anti-Semitic — an attack … given longstanding anti-Semitic tropes, that the gunman … The fact that refugees are by definition legal immigrants …

  50. TPOF

    That amounts to trust us the public is dumb. If that argument was true Whitlam would never have won an election.

    Time to drop it when you have an extreme government in power imposing dress codes of all things.

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