Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:
• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.
| 2013 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | 47.39 | 47.32 | 47.29 | 47.24 |
| Victoria | 36.78 | 37.89 | 38.25 | 38.57 |
| Queensland | 29.75 | 29.64 | 29.68 | 29.73 |
| WA | 16.21 | 15.58 | 15.37 | 15.21 |
| SA | 10.63 | 10.42 | 10.28 | 10.15 |
| Tasmania | 3.25 | 3.15 | 3.13 | 3.10 |
| ACT | 2.44 | 2.54 | 2.51 | 2.51 |
| NT | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.44 |
It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.
• The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.
• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.
(from old thread)
As predictable as the sunrise – ScuMo to pick fights over Australia Day:
“Councils forced to hold citizenship ceremonies on January 26
SEPTEMBER 25, 2018
Every council will be forced to hold citizenship ceremonies on Australia Day with the Morrison Government making good on its threat to strip rogues councils of their citizenship rights.”
Billed as an “Exclusive”, which in this case probably means a drop from the PM’s office rather than some crap they made up.
And note the date – copied from Outline – this story is 4 months old, or the fight was planned 4 months ago.
Daily Telecrap, so no link.
Steve777,
Have they been outraged by the triple j Hottest 100 being held on Sunday 27 Jan this year?
https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/news/musicnews/hottest-100-2019-dates-details-charity-partner-lifeline/10581974
Following the revelation of Libs’ internal polling, Frydenberg assured the media that he was wtte “fighting every day for his local constituents”. Yet all he does in the public eye is carp about Labor. He seems obsessed with “the enemy”, mentioned Labor 23 times in one column. Maybe not the cleverest strategy?
Jaeger: “Have they been outraged by the triple j Hottest 100 being held on Sunday 27 Jan this year?”
They probably will be. Another excuse to attack the ABC.
I’m sick of Australia Day. It used to be a family birthday but sadly no more. The public observance is a boganfest which the political right want to own. Well, they can celebrate it whenever they want. They can take Anzac Day with it.
Confessions: “He seems obsessed with “the enemy”, mentioned Labor 23 times in one column. Maybe not the cleverest strategy?”
It’s not just Frydenberg, they all do it. As Prime Minister, Tony Abbott acted as a sort of super-opposition leader to the previous Government. A typical speech by a Coalition Minister is “Blah blah blah Labor Blah blah blah Labor Blah blah blah Bill Shorten…”
It’s rather the opposite to the approach adopted by successful NSW Labour Premiers Neville Wran and Bob Carr. They studiously ignored their opponents to the extent that protocol and courtesy allowed.
EDIT: Confessions, I thought I was up early.
Steve777
You’re obviously only half awake. You’ve mistaken me for Confessions. Again?
lizzie @ #5 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 7:06 am
Sunday morning. Let us pray ❗
Yes – half awake. Apologies.
I do agree with you over Anzac/Australia Day.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Michael Koziol has a ten point wish list for politics in 2019.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/keep-it-pg-a-political-wish-list-for-2019-20190111-p50qqq.htmlK
Urban geographer Kate Shae tells us mot to panic – it’s the housing correction we needed to have.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/don-t-panic-it-s-the-housing-correction-we-needed-to-have-20190111-p50qub.html
Shane Wright looks at our trade agreements in light of the US/China stoush.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-s-insurance-against-a-us-china-trade-war-20190109-p50qbw.html
Alan Kohler writes that if there’s a recession in Australia in 2019 or 2020, or if it feels like one, the causes will be traceable back to two things that happened in 2014: the recommendation from the Senate Economics References Committee for a royal commission into financial services and the final report of Murray Inquiry.
https://outline.com/raYsvq
Julie Szego prepares herself for the ritualistic Australia Day patriotic venting.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/as-australia-day-approaches-so-does-the-ritual-patriotic-venting-20190110-p50qnp.html
How companies like Apple bury secrets in earnings reports
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/how-companies-like-apple-bury-secrets-in-earnings-reports-20190112-p50qyp.html
The managing director of a company that plans to construct Victoria’s largest windfarm says the project will supply enough power to replace up to a third of the generation of the decommissioned Hazelwood power station at less than $50/MWh.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/13/new-victorian-wind-farm-could-provide-10-of-states-energy
Maybe Scientology will do to itself what governments should have done.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/australian-recruits-have-dwindled-to-virtually-zero-scientology-struggles-in-nsw-20190112-p50qzy.html
Not unexpectedly, Trump has lashed out following a New York Times report that the FBI had opened a probe in 2017 to determine if the president had been working, knowingly or unknowingly, on behalf of Russia.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-lashes-out-at-fbi-after-times-report-on-russian-probe-20190113-p50r1y.html
A good weekend column from Peter FitzSimons.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-dead-fish-rots-from-the-head-down-heads-must-roll-20190111-p50qtc.html
The environmental catastrophe at Menindee Lakes and the Lower Darling should be a wake-up call for politicians, writes Sue Arnold. We are massive environmental crises. Crises that are so serious that, in many cases, the damage is irreparable.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/government-needs-to-act-on-menindee-and-darling-disasters,12267
A long-awaited decision could settle an industrial conflict that has dragged on for several years between Home Affairs Department workers and their bosses. The Fair Work Commission has drafted a workplace determination setting conditions and pay for the department’s public servants until 2021.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/industrial-umpire-makes-long-awaited-home-affairs-decision-20190111-p50qwt.html
Chloe Booker is fed up with many companies’ customer interfaces.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/help-i-m-drowning-in-trivial-life-admin-20190111-p50qsy.html
Has the advent of smart phones brought about a diminution of IQs?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/machines-smart-people-smarter-still-20190110-p50qlj.html
Anyone who has researched the best way to raise money for a sporting club, charity, school or community group will know that a Bunnings sausage sizzle is the most effective way to raise about $900 while having plenty of fun.
https://www.outline.com/kZLCag
Cartoon Corner
Reg Lynch ushers in the new year.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/f56fa7d10ff9c137299e6e46edc60666e5bdecab,jpg
Matt Golding accurately points the fish finger.
Peter Broelman ridicules Cormann’s RAAF flight.
Glen Le Lievre replies to Turnbull over the NBN.
From the US.
And from the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2019/jan/12/into-the-brexit-abyss-cartoon
Greetings from The Tweed Valley of NSW. Family Growler ensconced at Cabarita Beach and cooling our heals in anticpation of a busy 2019.
Locals seem nice. We will be exploring the hinterland today. Seems like heaps to do.
Blaming politicians for the failure of the MDB plan is too easy. Who is it that votes for them? The communities in the basin protested proper management of the river system, voted for its destruction, and are now trying to shift blame.
Our democracy is not so broken that you could reasonably claim that our representatives are disconnected from those they represent. The voters own the outcome.
I speculated yesterday that Voices for Indi holding a preselection might split the group.
Of course (duh) I have since realised that there is no reason whatsoever that the unsuccessful candidates shouldn’t run, or for their supporters not to follow them if they do.
There’s a stray comma in Reg Lynch’s link:
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Welcome to paradise, Family Growler!
Um, BK are you able to put a full stop before jpg on the Reg Lynch cartoon? Thnx.
DisplayName
Not the lobbyists, the corporations and the rorters?
oh, thanks Jaeger. 🙂
lizzie
In bed with those politicians the people voted for.
Remember this: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-18/young-men-burn-copies-of-the-guide-to-the-murray/7180740 ?
There’s also a bad, not very good story about a NSW State Labor candidate. However, it smells a bit fishy to me:
A star Labor candidate contesting one of the state’s most marginal seats is under investigation for allegedly assaulting his female flatmate.
NSW Labor has directed its candidate review committee to investigate an anonymous complaint it received about the mayor of Muswellbrook, Martin Rush, who is running in the seat of Upper Hunter.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/high-profile-labor-candidate-under-investigation-ahead-of-election-20190112-p50qxx.html
I’m disappointed that JJJ didn’t move the not-as-Hottest 100 to Sat 26 Jan so they could have a proper run up to the Hottest 100 on Sun 27 Jan. Having 100-1 on Sunday, then 200-101 on Monday is traditional, I guess – but a bit odd.
Not that I’ll be listening – kids these days know nuffin’ about music… 😉
I’ll see if I recognise anything on the website updates.
DisplayName
Ah yes. Those voters.
I wish the “property developer community’ would make up its mind. All those ‘foreign devils’ buying houses were they told us having sfa effect on the housing market and prices. Today……………..
.
.
“If we didn’t have the Chinese supporting our market the impact would be horrific, but I think the Chinese and Asians will continue to come to Australia and make the correction less painful than it would be,” Drapac says.
“If the Chinese government introduced a policy that made it impossible for them to bring their money to Australia, our market would be incinerated.”
https://outline.com/hr7mtw
lizzie
There are sufficient of them that that most areas along the MDB are represented by the Liberal or National parties.
As I said the other day. Nature does not give a fig about human compromises for some kind of least worst outcome that gives every human a little bit of what they want, so that we can bask in the glow of self-satisfaction that ‘something’ was achieved, that the perfect wasn’t made the enemy of the good, blah blah blah. That we humans are satisfied that we achieved some kind of deal amongst ourselves is totally irrelevant. You can’t compromise with environmental catastrophe.
DisplayName
Mmmm, that was where the pollies struck problems as soon as they tried to ensure “no social disadvantage” (can’t remember the exact phrase). As well as the States all having a different view.
But… no one admitted, back then, that water was being stolen without meters.
Further to lizzie’s post of the young !!@#@!!s burning the MDB Report. It was not just ignorant young idiots. Ignorant oldie idiots were in to it as well.
I will give you that our governments are responsible for (at least) one thing, and that is that they seem happy to turn a blind eye to water theft. Then again, people voted for governments that would turn a blind eye, so …
The Nats told farmers what they wanted to hear – that there was plenty of water, but those nasty greenie types (both Labor & the Greens) were either letting it run down the river and uselessly out to sea because they were opposed to building dams, or they were using it to water useless stretches of forest. Either way, good honest farmers were being ripped off.
They told farmers what they wanted to hear about climate change – not to worry, drought’s part of the natural cycle. This has encouraged farmers to persevere in bad times, borrow more money than they might have done otherwise, and stick it out in situations where they should just have cut their losses.
Of course, when slightly better times come, the farmer has a sh*tload of debt which can only be repaid by extracting every possible cent out of the land.
They may have abused the trust of farmers, but the farmers, on the other hand, wanted to hear what they wanted to hear. (Who is to blame if your backyard ends up littered with Sydney Harbor bridges – the guy who sold them to you, or your own gullibility?)
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/waste-crisis-looms-as-thousands-of-solar-panels-reach-end-of-life-20190112-p50qzd.html
From the previous thread.
Lovey @ #1882 Saturday, January 12th, 2019 – 1:41 pm
Did you actually read what your link says.
I’ve just had time to do so and the issue he highlights is a huge increase in the number of applications from;
So, in 2017-18 more than 20,000 of a total 27,931 asylum seeker claims came from 3 Countries that have a very low rate of legitimate claims, he mentions about 2%.
He talks about this being part of a rort where people are brought over on visitor visas, they then claim asylum and are moved to a bridging visa which allows them to work.
This has nothing to do with the two cases we have been discussing and you are conflating the issue by trying to include it.
So that seems to leave less than 6,000 people who travelled by plane to Australia on a valid visa who subsequently claimed asylum with some merit to that claim.
I certainly don’t see those numbers as being much of a problem in the scheme of things.
Certainly the rort outlined above is a concern that needs to be dealt with and he goes through some ways that the Government and Immigration may be able to attack it.
Jaeger, Steve777, lizzie
The “Outrageometer” will be dialed up to 11 on Sunday Jan 27th by the Murdoch media and their subsidiary parties, the Liberals and Nationals, for TripleJ’s hottest 100!
And I expect Morrison to call the election around that time, red in the face with outrage.
And (of course) shouting!
One of the worst mistakes this country has made was to shift the Australia Day holiday back to 26 January, rather than having it on the nearest Monday, as used to be the case. In those bygone days, everyone knew what was being celebrated: having a long weekend. And who knows how many sickies are now taken if the holiday falls on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday?
Pedant @ #31 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 4:30 am
One of the worst mistakes this country has made was to think to the date the NSW colony was established has any real relevance outside NSW.
🙂
Reclaim the Leafy Upper North Shore!
Drive out these White Turramurra gangs!
Lock up the Berowra Boys!
It’s not safe to go out in the streets to enjoy Oz Fuzion sushi cuisine with a drizzle of wasabe sauce anymore!
Knox College students need a chauffeur, just to get to their early maths coaching classes!
Where is Dutton when you need him, and why aren’t questions being asked of Bill Shorten?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/six-teenagers-stabbed-and-one-man-assaulted-during-fight-in-turramurra-20190113-p50r27.html
Dotard has been busy howling at the moon..
The Outrage-o-matic is being prepared as we speak: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/28/fire-up-the-outrageomatic-and-make-sure-theres-extra-sanctimonium-in-the-tanks
I’ll stock up on imported popcorn and beer. 😉
sprocket_ @ #34 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 4:42 am
Rare honesty.
His reasons for firing people are often thought to be bad ones!
🙂
An entire country called Australia, that at every conceivable instance to have a celebration, to observe and mark an occasion, will require its inhabitants to consume unedifying quantities of alcohol and food as a measure of the events significance.
Governments at all levels will authorise the spending of ever increasing amounts of public money to achieve the required level of inebriation and gluttony to prove their level of ownership of these events.
As each year comes and goes the words to the song that includes in its lyrics “we are one we are many” has come to represent competing individuals, communities and groups to interpret and display “we are the better ones and we know how to party better than you cos we’re true blue”.
Australia has become a country represented by utterly loathed politicians unable to decide upon and agree upon leadership within their own organizations. These governing mobs than maintain a “what’s in it for me” covenant as the defining measurement of decision making.
The more the politicians talk about the oneness of Australia, the decision making achieves the opposite.
The Darling river is empty, the GBR is disappearing to become just a barrier, feral animals own the entire nation, Melbourne desperately wants to overtake Sydney as the the most congested and unlovable city on a very dry continent and we lock people up on remote islands.
I’m sure a well known leader once said that we will decide who comes to Australia and who gets to destroy the nation.
A PM wanting to display their significance and the ownership of the country by determining that citizenship ceremonies and events are to be held simultaneously is seriously misreading public sentiment.
We are festooned in swathes of a very unnatural blue flags containing a group of stars most of the population couldn’t identifying within the Milky Way and somebody elses flag stuck in top left corner.
Bougainvillea should become the national flower as it doesn’t come from Australia like the majority of people, politicians, animals and plants now dominating our nation.
People in Homebush have been given loans by dodgy banks to purchase dodgy apartments so they can struggle to get to their casual part time work upon leaving their kids in government subsidised childcare organizations owned by dodgy politicians.
It’s perfectly reasonable that the entire nation becomes inhabited by mobs of drunken yobbos to celebrate our successes.
poroti
Yes, it’s like hearing Frydenberg and Morrison saying a year ago that negative gearing definitely did not contribute to higher house prices.
Fast forward one year – apparently now any changes by Labor to restrict negative gearing will (according to Frydenberg and Morrsion) will cause prices to crash!
I remember the one (and only) Hottest 100 I have ever had the misfortune to be exposed to.
It was in 2015, Australia Day. We were camping up the Glorious NSW Mid-North Coast. The traditional bogan invasion was in full swing for the Big Day. They had their little plastic Aussie flags wedged into their tradie’s ute windows. They had their woofers ramped up to peak thunder, able to crumble besser bricks in minutes. They had carloads of canned beer and Jack Daniels with cola. They swore. They shouted. They screamed. They giggled. They stayed up all night carousing, bonking and totally ignoring the music (oh that I could have!). They were indistinguishable from morons. And that was just the females.
It could have been worse. It could have been a Sunday. Then we’d have had Macca droning on all morning.
Bushfire Bill @ #40 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 5:03 am
Oh to be young again!!!
Then we’d have had Macca droning on all morning.
That would have been the seventh circle of Hades!
BK linked the Scientology article, which contains this dubious contract clause for the Taiwanese adherents coming here. I’d like to see one of them sued for specific performance..
“Meanwhile, defectors claim the Church’s solution to its dwindling standing in Australia is to bring in believers from Taiwan, where the religion has flourished in the last twenty years.
“They come out here totally devoted to doing as much Scientology as they can, on as little amount of money, before going back to Taiwan,” Mr Schofield said.
“These people sign one billion year contracts and promise to come back [to the church] every time they die.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/australian-recruits-have-dwindled-to-virtually-zero-scientology-struggles-in-nsw-20190112-p50qzy.html
The chap filling in for Macca this morning seems to have only one topic of conversation: the music of Paul Kelly.
What IS it with the ABC and Paul Kelly?
For that matter, what is it with Paul Kelly, period?
Barney, no. You hadda be there.
@ratsak (if you are around):
Remind me why Jhye Richardson isn’t in the CA XI team for the Sri Lankan warm up game and contesting for a test call up?
Rocket Rocket @ #42 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 8:59 am
Which is why I bookmarked this article:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/01/coalition-accused-of-creating-alternative-facts-on-negative-gearing
Grog also, from about the same time, just couldn’t believe what the Coalition were coming out with:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jan/14/when-it-comes-to-negative-gearing-this-government-prefers-fiction-to-fact
I am surprised at the polling that shows only Dan Tehan and Tim Wilson would retain their seats at the next election.
My friends in Goldstein giggled at the real prospect of Brighton returning a 19 year old Labor candidate. I think the golf clubs are still out and Timmy isn’t that safe
Moronic Tehan’s mum set him up in a safe seat
So will Dutton make his leadership push this week?
Reposting what I posted on November 9th last year – seems even more relevant now!
*******************************************
Working out along the Darling River ‘catchment’ – ie half of NSW!
I have found that water management of the Darling River and the Menindee Lakes is the issue out here. Last Saturday down at Broken Hill there was a protest march on the issue. I wasn’t down there, but one of the speakers was Chris Lamey a Queenslander who runs a farm on the McIntyre River west of Goondiwindi :
Mr Lamey joined the battle after the property next to his bulldozed the land and dug channels to divert water from 30km of floodplain into its dams. It also built a bridge over the river on Crown land. In 2016, when a modest flood arrived, all the illegal work caused his farm to become flooded and he lost a $1.4 million crop of chick peas..
He reported this to the Queensland Government and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. No-one has been prosecuted and he has not been compensated. “I am dealing with the NSW Government as well. I have found they are exactly the same. It’s just a culture of holding water for irrigation. Everyone is building dams, even on the side of hill, and holding more water than ever. The whole catchment has been captured.”
…
“Now we are just taken for granted by politicians who think they’re in a safe seat. People have to be pro-active with their vote, rather than do what grandad did. Look what happened in Wentworth. Who’s to say Parkes or Barwon will not be next?” Barrier Daily Truth
And today Owen Whyman, a Barkindji man from Wilcannia, has declared as an independent candidate for the NSW seat of Barwon, to fight on the issue of water for the Darling River and the Menindee Lakes System.
A station owner near Wilcannia told me that Lake Menindee is totally dry, Lake Tandou which has been dry for years but used for cropping and pasture is “stuffed”, and the Government now wants to substantially reduce the water in Lake Cawndilla (the deepest lake in the system). He said the Darling between Bourke and Wilcannia has been reduced to a series of waterholes, and he thinks the lower Anabranch is totally dry. As a result of the Government Menindee Lakes “Plan” the amount of agriculture in the area has fallen dramatically, and with it the number of employees and seasonal pickers resulting in further economic damage to an already disadvantaged region.
At public hearings in Adelaide last week for the Royal Commission onto the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Richrad Beasley, counsel assisting the Commisioner, was damning in his assessments.
“The Basin Plan was a fraud from the start because it ignored the advice from the CSIRO that almost 5000 gigalitres had to be returned to the environment. Instead, CSIRO scientists told the commission they were ordered to make the figure “start with a 2″ or they would not be paid.
…
This is not a careless error or a misinterpretation of the Water Act. It involves the knowing or reckless disobedience of the law in implementing the plan, which itself involves expenditure of billions of dollars of public funds.
…
However, neither the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Water, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, or any Commonwealth government agency has provided any answer to anything I have just said or to the evidence before the Commission. They have no answer. The States also have no answer.”
His basic conclusion was that the Menindee Lakes Project was illegal, as it contravened elements of statute law in the Water Act.
In the 2015 election for Barwon which covers most of the NSW catchment of the Darling River, the primaries were – Nat 49%, Labor 24%, Ind 17%, Green 6%. TPP – Nat 63% v Labor 37%.
If this new Independent could get ahead of Labor, and if the National vote falls below 45 which I think it will, the Coalition could lose another safe seat.
ICFTLOM (I can’t for the life of me) understand why citizenship ceremonies must be on just one day of the year – why not once a quarter or any other option or at the discretion of each council?