Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:
• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.
| 2013 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | 47.39 | 47.32 | 47.29 | 47.24 |
| Victoria | 36.78 | 37.89 | 38.25 | 38.57 |
| Queensland | 29.75 | 29.64 | 29.68 | 29.73 |
| WA | 16.21 | 15.58 | 15.37 | 15.21 |
| SA | 10.63 | 10.42 | 10.28 | 10.15 |
| Tasmania | 3.25 | 3.15 | 3.13 | 3.10 |
| ACT | 2.44 | 2.54 | 2.51 | 2.51 |
| NT | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.44 |
It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.
• The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.
• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.
I always thought Aust Day should replace the Queens birthday weekend with Sat being for the celebration of the Indigenous peoples, Sunday for those who came after colonization and Monday for unity as a nation.
In the midst of the MDB calamity, caused by idiot voters listening to idiotic, self interested politicians, it’s time to remind ourselves of another, ongoing, water calamity.
The NSW LNP government has, over the past few years, removed controls on mining under water catchments, and then approved long wall mining, even before reports from their own enquiries are completed.
Millions of litres a day of fresh water now drain into these mines, destroying swamps and habitats.
Well done, Gladys.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-01-09/mining-will-irreparably-damage-sydney-catchment/261278
And
http://todayspaper.smedia.com.au/smh/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=SMH%2F2019%2F01%2F07&entity=Ar00300&sk=32D50132&mode=text
Greg Jericho quoted by C@T: “Negative gearing is the economic equivalent of a migrant crime story – something conservative political parties believe they can use to scare voters despite little or no relation to facts.”
They believe it because they can. The mainstream media will either let it through to the keeper or actively boost their lies. And should they ever need facts, they can always make them up.
P.S. I actually recall various Coalition spokespeople getting their alternative facts mixed up when Labor first announced its negative gearing policy. Some were saying house prices would soar, others that they would crash.
booleanbach @ #49 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 6:26 am
Our council holds citizenship ceremonies throughout the year when they are needed. By far and away the greatest demand for citizenship ceremonies however, is on Aust Day.
booleanbach @ #50 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 5:26 am
They don’t, they are scheduled throughout the year all over Australia.
Here’s the Wyndham City’s schedule for this year as an example.
https://www.wyndham.vic.gov.au/about-council/your-council/australian-citizenship-ceremonies
Reposting what I posted on November 9th last year – seems more relevant than ever!
***
Working out along the Darling River ‘catchment’ – ie half of NSW!
I have found that water management of the Darling River and the Menindee Lakes is the issue out here. Last Saturday down at Broken Hill there was a protest march on the issue. I wasn’t down there, but one of the speakers was Chris Lamey a Queenslander who runs a farm on the McIntyre River west of Goondiwindi :
Mr Lamey joined the battle after the property next to his bulldozed the land and dug channels to divert water from 30km of floodplain into its dams. It also built a bridge over the river on Crown land. In 2016, when a modest flood arrived, all the illegal work caused his farm to become flooded and he lost a $1.4 million crop of chick peas..
He reported this to the Queensland Government and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. No-one has been prosecuted and he has not been compensated. “I am dealing with the NSW Government as well. I have found they are exactly the same. It’s just a culture of holding water for irrigation. Everyone is building dams, even on the side of hill, and holding more water than ever. The whole catchment has been captured.”
…
“Now we are just taken for granted by politicians who think they’re in a safe seat. People have to be pro-active with their vote, rather than do what grandad did. Look what happened in Wentworth. Who’s to say Parkes or Barwon will not be next?” Barrier Daily Truth
And today Owen Whyman, a Barkindji man from Wilcannia, has declared as an independent candidate for the NSW seat of Barwon, to fight on the issue of water for the Darling River and the Menindee Lakes System.
A station owner near Wilcannia told me that Lake Menindee is totally dry, Lake Tandou which has been dry for years but used for cropping and pasture is “stuffed”, and the Government now wants to substantially reduce the water in Lake Cawndilla (the deepest lake in the system). He said the Darling between Bourke and Wilcannia has been reduced to a series of waterholes, and he thinks the lower Anabranch is totally dry. As a result of the Government Menindee Lakes “Plan” the amount of agriculture in the area has fallen dramatically, and with it the number of employees and seasonal pickers resulting in further economic damage to an already disadvantaged region.
At public hearings in Adelaide last week for the Royal Commission onto the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Richrad Beasley, counsel assisting the Commisioner, was damning in his assessments.
“The Basin Plan was a fraud from the start because it ignored the advice from the CSIRO that almost 5000 gigalitres had to be returned to the environment. Instead, CSIRO scientists told the commission they were ordered to make the figure “start with a 2″ or they would not be paid.
…
This is not a careless error or a misinterpretation of the Water Act. It involves the knowing or reckless disobedience of the law in implementing the plan, which itself involves expenditure of billions of dollars of public funds.
…
However, neither the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Water, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, or any Commonwealth government agency has provided any answer to anything I have just said or to the evidence before the Commission. They have no answer. The States also have no answer.”
His basic conclusion was that the Menindee Lakes Project was illegal, as it contravened elements of statute law in the Water Act.
In the 2015 election for Barwon which covers most of the NSW catchment of the Darling River, the primaries were – Nat 49%, Labor 24%, Ind 17%, Green 6%. TPP – Nat 63% v Labor 37%.
If this new Independent could get ahead of Labor, and if the National vote falls below 45 which I think it will, the Coalition could lose another safe seat.
Spruiking crap re Neg. Gearing , no different from spruiking Coal, someone’s pocket is getting……………
Another one is in.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/former-hud-secretary-julian-castro-joins-2020-democratic-presidential-field/2019/01/12/8e60314e-15eb-11e9-90a8-136fa44b80ba_story.html?utm_term=.24943012f2ee
I think the rubber will hit the road as far as the American government shutdown is concerned once furloughed federal workers start getting thrown out of their homes on to the streets by heartless landlords. Like Donald Trump and his father, Fred Trump.
Here are Willoughby City’s Citizenship Ceremony Dates for the first half of 2019:
27 February
20 March
10 April
1 May
12 June
The council covers roughly the Northern part of the blue ribbon Liberal North Sydney Federal electorate. The councillors are mostly members of the Liberal party who stood as independents.
C@tmomma @ #18 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 7:40 am
No denial from Mr Rush which you’d think would be offered if he was innocent.
I assume he’ll be managed out of the candidacy by NSW Labor.
The hottest 100 count occurs during daylight hours.
Alpha Zero @ #62 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 5:57 am
Depends where you are in this wonderful world!
But don’t be so quick as to destroy an old man’s rage. 🙂
booleanbach
They’re not. We used to do them at our council throughout the year, basically whenever someone wanted one. I don’t think we ever did one on Australia Day, mainly because usually council staff had been on hols so there was no one to organise it.
Rex Douglas
Guilty until proven innocent Rex?
Ya pompous ass!
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1084170673189056518
Goll @ #64 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 6:06 am
The Greens don’t understand process.
booleanbach @ #49 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 9:26 am
It’s just a desperate govt investing in cheap optics politics for it’s old white male base.
Goll @ #64 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:06 am
There’s no guilt or innocence as yet.
But you know how NSW Labor is with these things….
@ratsak (if you are around):
https://www.cricbuzz.com/i/news/fth/595×397/stories/2017/mar/10//prv_1489133519.jpeg
Barney in Go Dau @ #66 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:08 am
Neither do the dark elements in NSW Labor – just ask Emma…
https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/religion-and-belief/wa-libs-evangelicals-likened-to-a-cancer-by-federal-mp-who-says-they-are-close-to-a-complete-takeover-ng-b881070135z
Interesting. Happy Clappers all over. 🙁
And in today’s WTF moment…
“
Former prime minister John Howard personally intervened to stop a domestic violence incident after stumbling across a couple fighting in the street.
Mr Howard, 79, was on his daily walk near his home in Wollstonecraft about 7.45am on Wednesday when he saw the clash.
It is understood a man was attempting to put something in a bin, triggering a row with a woman that allegedly escalated into physical violence.
A Liberal source said Mr Howard called out “Hey” in a bid to stop the fight, before standing with the woman until police arrived.
The former Liberal leader, who celebrates his 80th birthday in July, is understood to be assisting officers from North Shore Police Area Command with their inquiries and has provided them with a statement.
Officers said Mr Howard had assisted at the scene but was “not involved” in the fracas.
He is now being hailed as a hero after news of the incident did the rounds of the Liberal Party faithful.
“He took on the Taliban in his 60s and now he’s taking on domestic violence at almost 80,” a Liberal source said.
“He not only stopped the fight, but he stood with the woman until help arrived. Others would have turned a blind eye.”
Mr Howard, who was back walking the streets in his cricket jumper on Friday morning, declined to comment on the scuffle, but confirmed there had been “an incident”.
A 44-year-old woman has been charged with breaching an Apprehended Domestic Violence Order and granted conditional bail to appear at Manly Local Court on Tuesday.
The man, aged 47, was taken to hospital as a mental health precaution.
http://outline.com/NUbTV5
This is not well explained. Is Morrison ordering ALL c/ship ceremonies to be held on Oz Day? Which would be a complete change from past (as detailed above). Or hasn’t he thought it through? Or is it just bad reporting?
imacca
It looks like those happy clappers are just an old pig with lipstick on. The good old Assemblies of God.
from the archives…
😆
Rex Douglas @ #70 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 6:13 am
Boo hoo!
Pathetic from 9News and pathetic of our govt for not stepping up quickly for this poor girl.
Respect to Canada.
Posted before but updated.
[‘They paint a picture of magistrate who determined appeals bail in her chambers multiple times; who encouraged police in three cases to take steps to lay further charges; who imposed sentences on four occasions which exceeded the maximum penalty; and who misused her detention powers in four cases.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/magistrate-s-misconduct-dominique-burns-latest-judicial-officer-referred-to-parliament-20190111-p50qve.html
Up here we once had a District Court judge whose sentencing appeared to be based on placating the local Murdoch rag, with quite a number being overturned on appeal. He was, if you like, a contemporary version of “Hanging Judge” Jeffries. On the face of it, I think Ms. Burns may be looking for new employment, probably resigning before her matter reaches the floor of Parliament. Perhaps a former family court barrister is unsuited for the cut and thrust of criminal law, evidenced inter alia by imposing sentences beyond the statutory maximum – a most rudimentary error.
Barney in Go Dau @ #76 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:24 am
Why aren’t NSW Labor members calling for an independent investigation into the ‘dark elements’ of NSW Labor ??
It’s a cancer that needs cutting out, surely ?
Rex Douglas @ #79 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 6:31 am
Please Rex your deflections and irrelevancies are bringing me to tears!
😆
Barney in Go Dau @ #80 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:35 am
You’re projecting now
RD
With the case being urgent Dutton basically said no by his “no special treatment’. she did not have weeks or months. Spot the difference.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday that Canada had accepted a request from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to take in Rahaf Mohammed Alqunun,
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/saudi-teen-rahaf-alqunun-due-arrive-canada-asylum-190112054905094.html
.
Dutton said there would be no “special treatment” in Ms Alqunun’s case
https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/5842021/un-refers-saudi-refugee-case-to-australia/
Rex Douglas is using a classic trope, saying his political enemy is “a cancer that needs cutting out”. The Nazis and their anti-semitic forbears used exactly that kind of language to describe Jews, calling them “diseased”. RD is to bludging what the neo nazis are to beach going in St Kilda. RD is a hate-making gizmo.
Barney in Go Dau @ #70 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:08 am
Rex Douglas is a Socialist. I haven’t decided yet if he is a Marxist, Trotskyist or Maoist. Just as long as he can damage his enemies in the Labor Party, for no good reason and without evidence and a subsequent conviction, is good enough for him.
Hmm, maybe he’s a Stalinist then. 🙂
Dutton said there would be no “special treatment” in Ms Alqunun’s case
https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/5842021/un-refers-saudi-refugee-case-to-australia/
It would have been another case of death by neglect.
Rex
Pretending to have vision and using one eye will cause “dark elements”
The LNP are in government in NSW.
Specsavers perhaps?
poroti @ #82 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 6:39 am
Get in line and join the queue!
Can’t do anything that might undermine the optics that we are bastards and don’t give a shit.
poroti @ #82 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:39 am
Dutton is a cheap opportunist politician. The lowest of the low.
Shadow Trader with his outlook for the markets for the coming week –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-sa9B5BA5I
Short version – a rise to 2600 and a bit above for the S&P and then run into resistance.
Shadow has been sceptical of this run up and has set out his reasons.
He calls this coming week “pivotal”.
briefly @ #83 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:41 am
Here we go with the foul abuse again…
Briefly
Lots of cancers in politics today it seems.
Rex has diagnosed one in NSW Labor, an unnamed Federal MP thinks the religious right are a cancer in the party in WA.
The WA Libs are reported to be broke so I guess that is why they tolerate the influence of the evangelical churches.
One thing those people know how to do is fundraise. Though I suspect most of the money goes to support individual candidates rather than the party in general.
The things we get to read on Sundays!
– – -described affirmative action as a “policy monstrosity” that “has facilitated the movement of mothers out of the home economy and into the market economy, undermining the family as an economic unit, marriage as a lifelong partnership, and the well-being of children.”
Sounds like an LNP policy document.
But — “And to think, some of them even managed all of that without “remarkable” semen exposure.” !!
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1/11/1825443/-Trump-administration-official-knows-what-women-need-magic-semen-and-life-at-home-with-the-kids
I know we have some nutters here in Australia and many of those in Parliament, but, really, the US has to take the Olympic Medal for nutters.
6 teenagers stabbed by a 34 year old Anglo Saxon male in turrumurra sydney.
One can imagine the headlines and outrage if the perpetrator was Sudanese.
Goll @ #86 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:44 am
The best opportunity to rid NSW of the seemingly inept state govt is for the opposition to present themselves as ‘dark element’ free. Surely Labor members want this… ?
Rossmcg @ #91 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 10:51 am
One might say the mormon influence in Victorian Liberals is something they should remove.
Its ok to be an obnoxious bigot but not ok to be called an obnoxious bigot? Interesting.
This is the bit that interested me from the news article extracted by Sprocket:
“A 44-year-old woman has been charged with breaching an Apprehended Domestic Violence Order and granted conditional bail to appear at Manly Local Court on Tuesday.
The man, aged 47, was taken to hospital as a mental health precaution.”
briefly @ #83 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 9:41 am
Godwin’s Law.
Just in regard to the MDB tragedy, has Labor made any pronouncements about what they intend to do about it when they take over? One would expect that they will be very well placed to bash a few heads together and implement something that really works. There wouldn’t be too many seats that vote for Labor in those areas, so a Shorten government would not be hamstrung politically to the same extent that the LNP has been.