The age of entitlement

Prospects for the states’ seat entitlements in the medium term, and the Coalition’s chances of having any left to their name in Victoria after the coming election.

Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:

• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.

2013 2016 2018 2019
NSW 47.39 47.32 47.29 47.24
Victoria 36.78 37.89 38.25 38.57
Queensland 29.75 29.64 29.68 29.73
WA 16.21 15.58 15.37 15.21
SA 10.63 10.42 10.28 10.15
Tasmania 3.25 3.15 3.13 3.10
ACT 2.44 2.54 2.51 2.51
NT 1.56 1.50 1.47 1.44

It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.

• The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.

• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,220 comments on “The age of entitlement”

Comments Page 6 of 25
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  1. Que?

    Duncan Storrar
    Wow the incompetence of the @LiberalAus the fed can not write laws re councils .. they don’t exist in our constitution a unrecognised level of government they can’t give money to them directly and can’t tell em what to do

  4. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 2:21 pm
    briefly,

    lol I realise you think you are many things but now you are straying into the super-natural of believing you are a mind reader. Cue spooky music – Enjoy the journey.

    I simply take note of what the Gs actually do….of their messaging and their record. As for my self-idea, I am ought but a factory-worker. I get grease under my nails and am quite a lot taller in my steel-caps than in my socks. I have no knowledge of the extra-sensory but I do know about the ache in my bones from the labouring.

  5. I have worked on almost every election campaign since 1969, at the federal, state and local levels. Since the Greens started running candidates one fact has stood out. Their campaigns are aimed at winning votes from Labor, not from the Coalition. By definition they are enemy of Labor. They are by no means the major opponents of Labor but they are opponents.

  6. Labor leader Bill Shorten said 530 of Australia’s 537 councils already held citizenship ceremonies on Australia Day.

    “You sort of know when Australia Day’s coming up don’t you when a couple of weeks before we get the annual conservative outing to put politics into Australia Day,” Mr Shorten told reporters in Melbourne on Sunday.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/pm-morrison-rejects-claims-of-politicising-australia-day-citizenship-ceremonies?cid=news:socialshare:twitter

  7. Mavis Smith

    I was going to comment that if he was feeling norty he would publish it just before or during the election campaign. Then along came this bit 🙂

    Tour de Force (MUP, March 2019)

  8. Rob Stewart on neoliberalism:

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/neoliberalism-is-alive-and-kicking,12264

    The plutocracy has been doing everything it can to ensure elected governments are as incompetent and dysfunctional as possible — that the democratic process results in kakistocracy with neoliberalism being the saviour.

    Grovelling governments keep falling over themselves in eagerness to please their masters. What’s required is endless tax cuts and corporate welfare for the rich, either deliberately unfunded or partially funded by slashing social welfare and public program funding for everyone else.

    What’s at stake is the personal legitimacy of political “leaders” in the eyes of the plutocrats who own them. They will never risk that. Bill Clinton didn’t risk it. Barack Obama didn’t risk it. Hillary Clinton would never have risked it. Howard, Rudd, Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison — never. And, in the event of a Shorten Labor Government in Australia, the plutocracy can rest easy.
    :::
    Anyone doubting whether effective democracy has been sold out to the corporate oligarchy, the plutocracy, should familiarise themselves with the works of authors such as Jane Mayer in Dark Money, David Harvey in A Brief History of Neoliberalism, Nancy MacLean in Democracy in Chains, or The One Percent Solution by Gordon Lafer.

  9. lizzie says:
    Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 2:22 pm
    Que?

    Duncan Storrar
    Wow the incompetence of the @LiberalAus the fed can not write laws re councils .. they don’t exist in our constitution a unrecognised level of government they can’t give money to them directly and can’t tell em what to do
    ——————————————

    When it comes to citizenship ceremonies councils act as agents of the federal government. Therefore the Federal government can make rules on how the councils behave in that role.

  11. The Commonwealth of Australian came into being on January 1st, 1901.

    The obvious answer to the Australia Day conundrum is to move Australia Day to January 1st.

    On January 26th, 1788 there existed no such entity as Australia. In fact as far as I know, no such word existed at that time.

    The 26th Jan date, if it is to be celebrated, should be celebrated as New South Wales Day. Or if you like Invasion Day.

    As for the public holiday, just make News Years Eve a holiday as well as Jan 1st. Hardly anything productive gets done on New Years Eve as it is, so business will be happy for the move. Holiday makers get to take their Xmas breaks while using one less day of annual leave. Schoolies get to go back without the inconvenience of a holiday interrupting their return to study.

    Then everybody’s happy, apart from the fascist wing of the LNP and the Murdoch press. So it has bugger all chance of actually happening.

  12. From the same article:

    Neoliberalism should have been brought to heel during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. It wasn’t. And the oligarchy is waiting to gorge itself again at the public trough when the next crisis hits, which will be soon. No amount of public outrage or disgust will stop it. It doesn’t matter who is officially “running the show” when the plutocracy owns the lot of them.

  13. Peter Stanton @ #253 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 2:36 pm

    lizzie says:
    Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 2:22 pm
    Que?

    Duncan Storrar
    Wow the incompetence of the @LiberalAus the fed can not write laws re councils .. they don’t exist in our constitution a unrecognised level of government they can’t give money to them directly and can’t tell em what to do
    ——————————————

    When it comes to citizenship ceremonies councils act as agents of the federal government. Therefore the Federal government can make rules on how the councils behave in that role.

    If enough councils refused to have citizenship ceremonies and were deprived of that role, there may well be a shortage of citizenship ceremonies to which aspiring citizens could sensibly attend.

    Since it is simply not possible to have all citizenship ceremonies on Australia Day, there are too many candidates, and they are even now spread throughout the year, what is the big deal if one of the many ceremonies is not held on Australia Day?

    Some councils don’t have an Australia Day citizenship ceremony anyway, because council officers are on holiday, and unable to organise them at that time.

  15. Que?

    Duncan Storrar
    Wow the incompetence of the @LiberalAus the fed can not write laws re councils .. they don’t exist in our constitution a unrecognised level of government they can’t give money to them directly and can’t tell em what to do

    Guessing he means that the government can’t force local councils to not hold ceremonies on certain dates. Or outlaw certain dates.

    Also guessing that might be missing the point because the threat had to do with the power to confer citizenship and not with the legislative banning or mandating of certain dates. If local councils can confer citizenship then that ability must be enabled via legislation and can be taken away just the same. And if they can’t then they’re already powerless on the issue anyways.

  16. Graham @ #255 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 2:39 pm

    The Commonwealth of Australian came into being on January 1st, 1901.

    The obvious answer to the Australia Day conundrum is to move Australia Day to January 1st.

    On January 26th, 1788 there existed no such entity as Australia. In fact as far as I know, no such word existed at that time.

    The 26th Jan date, if it is to be celebrated, should be celebrated as New South Wales Day. Or if you like Invasion Day.

    As for the public holiday, just make News Years Eve the holiday as well as Jan 1st.

    Then everybody’s happy, apart from the fascist wing of the LNP and the Murdoch press. So it has bugger all chance of actually happening.

    It was known as ‘terra australis incognita’ in the 2nd Century AD, before it was even discovered. There was the feeling at the time that there must be such a land, to balance out all the other lands in the Northern Hemisphere.

  18. I am no fan of Roman Q. He seemed to be too comfortable parading in full uniform with Dutton and Pezzullo.
    And the scandal that brought him undone does not reflect well on him.
    But he cuts through with his tweets.

  19. Oh look, Pegasus has flown in on her white steed, ‘Old Vinegar Tits’ to pour scorn on us poor, misguided Labor supporters! 😆

  20. John Howard praised by PM after reportedly intervening in domestic violence incident.

    I didnt know that Morrison was a victim of domestic violence.Howard should know about that.His wife kicks his ass if he doesnt go out for that walk everyday to give her some peace and quiet.

  21. Graham @ #254 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 2:39 pm

    The Commonwealth of Australian came into being on January 1st, 1901.

    The obvious answer to the Australia Day conundrum is to move Australia Day to January 1st.

    On January 26th, 1788 there existed no such entity as Australia. In fact as far as I know, no such word existed at that time.

    The 26th Jan date, if it is to be celebrated, should be celebrated as New South Wales Day. Or if you like Invasion Day.

    As for the public holiday, just make News Years Eve the holiday as well as Jan 1st.

    Then everybody’s happy, apart from the fascist wing of the LNP and the Murdoch press. So it has bugger all chance of actually happening.

    I’m onboard that logical proposition, Graham.

  22. “It was known as ‘terra australis incognita’ in the 2nd Century AD, before it was even discovered.”

    That was not a reference to Australia, it was a reference to an imaginary landmass.

    While there is an obvious derivation, the phrase does not include the word “Australia”. Which I believe was first used by Matthew Flinders in the charts of his circumnavigation of Australia first in use nearly 30 years after the First Fleet.

  23. Also guessing that might be missing the point because the threat had to do with the power to confer citizenship and not with the legislative banning or mandating of certain dates.

    Well, yes, it’s just a re-announcement of what the Libs have already been doing as far as I can tell – if a council makes a point of not having an Australia day citizenship ceremony, they will be stripped of the power to hold any citizenship ceremonies.

    It’s such a non-issue culture war thing I find it hard to get too worked up about it, but I do hope the majority of Australians (old and new) just eye-roll at all of this nonsense and laugh at the histrionics from the Conservative warriors.

  24. Denise Shrivell
    ‏

    @deniseshrivell
    2h2 hours ago

    Sky News now saying no traditional owners stood with the PM for his Kakadu announcement though they will stand with Shorten during his trip tomorrow. What’s going on? #auspol

  25. Another death at a music festival in nsw and Gladys’ response is, “we ask young people not to do it”.
    That’ll teach em gladys.

  26. Graham says:
    Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 2:39 pm
    The Commonwealth of Australian came into being on January 1st, 1901.
    ——————————————————–
    The Act of the British Parliament making Australia independent was passed on 5 July 1900 royal assent was given on 9 July 1900. Either of these dates would be suitable as a national day and would avoid the clash with the new year celebrations. Personally I would prefer 3 December, the day of the battle at Eureka.

  28. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 13, 2019 at 2:46 pm
    briefly @ #233 Sunday, January 13th, 2019 – 2:04 pm

    Rex…..Many would say you manufacture hate on the Greens.

    I do not resile from my critique of the Gs, who purport to be Labor-positive or Labor-friendly but who actually campaign against Labor all the time.
    Very Trumpian of you…

    ….Orwellian…..really double-speak has got your tongue….

  29. Briefly
    I get grease under my nails and am quite a lot taller in my steel-caps than in my socks. I have no knowledge of the extra-sensory but I do know about the ache in my bones from the labouring.
    ____________________________
    Oh please, and you’re the only one who has done hard work on here. The old horny-handed routine is getting a bit tiresome. And for all we know you could be an insurance agent who has never seen a callous. On a blog, personal reflections on how tough, beautiful or hard working a contributor is, well, likely to be a lie.

  30. Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏@quaedvliegs
    12m12 minutes ago

    An African woman in a floral dress; three bronzed Aussie surfers; and two Chinese guys wearing Bunnings t-shirts, walk into a kebab shop. Start of a bad joke?

    No, it’s Granville, pre-Australia Day 2019 & no one cares what each other looks like or what they wear. It’s Australia.

  33. poroti:

    The publication of his book is timed to perfection. Such shame when two friends fall out – Dutton and Quaedvlieg.

  34. How about moving Australia Day to the date of the ‘foundation orgy’ during one of those Sydney thunderstorms after the convicts were first allowed ashore on February 6. OK, it’s probably a myth, but so is most of the stuff politician (especially on the Right) will bang on about on January 26 and more in keeping with how many will actually celebrate the day.

  38. Michael Avenatti
    Michael Avenatti
    @MichaelAvenatti
    ·
    Jan 12
    I am pleased to announce that
    @StormyDaniels
    and I will attend the congressional hearing when Cohen testifies. Which is only appropriate seeing as it would have never happened but for
    @StormyDaniels
    .

  40. C@tmomma:

    Oh look, Pegasus has flown in on her white steed, ‘Old Vinegar Tits’ to pour scorn on us poor, misguided Labor supporters!

    I had a chuckle at that.

  41. Stormy Daniels
    @StormyDaniels
    ·
    Jan 12
    Exactly
    Quote Tweet
    Carolyn
    @CarolynW1111
    Replying to @MichaelAvenatti and @StormyDaniels
    Awesome! If you think about it, it’s kinda payback for the time trump brought those women out and sat them front and center to unsettle Hilary during the debates. What goes around really does come back around.

    Popcorn futures are going through the roof !

  42. On a blog, personal reflections on how tough, beautiful or hard working a contributor is, well, likely to be a lie.

    Well, you are the resident expert on this blog, nath. 🙂

  45. I thought so c@t.
    I’ve missed much of the news today but I take it they have both announced essentially the same thing (or bill will tomorrow and scomo tried to upstage him today I take it).

  46. RD

    So does Daniel Andrews:

    https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/professional/state-of-play-for-and-against-pill-testing

    Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has also ruled out pill testing under his leadership, stating ‘there is no safe level at which these substances can be taken’.

    This stance was recently further confirmed by Victoria’s acting Health Minister Martin Foley, who said that ‘advice from Victoria Police tells us [pill testing] can give people a false, and potentially fatal, sense of security about illicit drugs’.

  48. Trump fight for wall as he holds American citizens as his hostages. Can Pelosi and Schumer hold firm to Trump ransom demands as public start to suffer? And we call USA a advanced country. As we are having discussion on Murdoch, he is partly responsible for this people suffering through his Fox News.

    https://www-washingtonpost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/in-the-white-house-waiting-inside-trumps-defiance-on-the-longest-shutdown-ever/2019/01/12/c512af0c-15ee-11e9-b6ad-9cfd62dbb0a8_story.html?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Fin-the-white-house-waiting-inside-trumps-defiance-on-the-longest-shutdown-ever%2F2019%2F01%2F12%2Fc512af0c-15ee-11e9-b6ad-9cfd62dbb0a8_story.html

  49. Sceptic,
    One can only imagine what Ms Daniels will wear for the occasion. 😉

    I wonder who in Congress got her and Avenatti seats for the hearing?

  50. Josh Taylor
    I was going through the Howard era Cabinet docs from 96-97 and I had no idea they changed the law so that the flag can only be changed by public vote.

    Always be culture-warring.

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