Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:
• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.
2013 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
NSW | 47.39 | 47.32 | 47.29 | 47.24 |
Victoria | 36.78 | 37.89 | 38.25 | 38.57 |
Queensland | 29.75 | 29.64 | 29.68 | 29.73 |
WA | 16.21 | 15.58 | 15.37 | 15.21 |
SA | 10.63 | 10.42 | 10.28 | 10.15 |
Tasmania | 3.25 | 3.15 | 3.13 | 3.10 |
ACT | 2.44 | 2.54 | 2.51 | 2.51 |
NT | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.44 |
It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.
• The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.
• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.
Mavis Smith @ #945 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 12:39 pm
Essential doesn’t come out until very late Monday night, Tuesday morning, so I can’t see that as being correct. 🙂
Mavis Smith @ #945 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 3:39 pm
Ditto. Perhaps it was a prediction.
Mavis
Given these results 45-55 it would be no surprise. What a Coalition ‘fight back’ over 18 months.
Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor – The Poll Bludger
Mar 21, 2017 –
.
Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor – The Poll Bludger
Aug 28, 2018
grimace @ #950 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 1:41 pm
In which case we can still hold a sweep for what the poll will be.
I’ll start it off:
Dan 55/45
Anyone else?
Dan Gulberry @ #954 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 1:45 pm
Put me down for 56/44
I’ll go 56/44. I think the MDB environmental catastrophe will resonate.
Thanks, grimace.
Re Palmer, our letterboxes are being stuffed with Palmer flyers. I glance at them and chuck them in the bin near the letterboxes. He seems to be modelling himself on Trump.
Fortunately he doesn’t have my mobile number. If he’s calling my landline, I wouldn’t know because I don’t answer it or respond to messages unless I know the number.
grimace @ #955 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 1:46 pm
Duly noted.
Player One @ #956 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 1:47 pm
Also duly noted.
Barney, LR, poroti:
All noted. I think it might be 53-47 due to the long break.
Mavis Smith @ #961 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 1:50 pm
Recorded.
John Menadue, 14 January 2019 -“I am reposting below an edited version of “The scourge of lobbyists” posted in this blog on 12 May 2018.”
http://www.johnmenadue.com/john-menadue-the-scourge-of-lobbyists-is-likely-to-continue-if-there-is-a-change-of-government-a-repost-from-20-july-2018/
Dan Gulberry, put me down for 55/45 (ALP/LNP)
Mavis Smith
I was wondering if the break would result in a slight narrowing (The Abbott Effect -Keep out of public view-> Coalition polling up).
Sooo I’ll go 54-46.
Re Essential and any other new polls for the year, I think that they will bounce back to a default value after the long break, Where that might be, I don’t know, but I don’t think that it’ll be too different from where we finished 2018, maybe some Coalition voters drifting back to the fold (their default).
I’ll go for Labor 54/46.
Put me down for a pessimistic 53/47.
Seems to me that ‘giving it a go’ might be a no-brainer.
Thanks Dan, put me down for 55/45.
Late Riser, poroti, Steve777 and BK
Your predictions have been added.
John R @ #969 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 1:59 pm
Added.
Dan
I’m with BK. 53/47.
So far we have:
53/47
Mavis; BK
54/46
poroti; Steve777
55/45
Dan; Late Riser; John R
56/44
grimace; Player One
Anyone else?
The release of helium balloons into the atmosphere has been of concern to environmental groups for many years.
Zoos Victoria: https://www.zoo.org.au/news/balloon-open-letter (with signatories)
Balloons: why they blow –
https://www.1millionwomen.com.au/blog/balloons-why-they-blow/
https://www.documentaryaustralia.com.au/films/4021/rubber-jellyfish
Al Pal
Your prediction has been added.
Dan, I have this.
PB Essential-Poll 2019-01-15
PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.5 to 45.5 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 12
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 Al Pal
53 / 47 BK
55 / 45 Dan Gulberry
55 / 45 Dave
53.5 / 46.5 Frednk *permanent
56 / 44 grimace
55 / 45 John R
55 / 45 Late Riser
53 / 47 Mavis Smith
56 / 44 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
54 / 46 Steve777
(Frednk indicated his choice in perpetuity for Newspoll.)
Put me down for 57-43 to the ALP.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-and-cathy-mcgowan-want-bridget-mckenzie-to-run-in-indi-20190114-p50r90.html
57 would be nice.
Certainly it is conceivable. I wonder if an early January poll is likely to be a wild swing or a revision to the trend.
Dan, I may have mistaken your question. Sorry. I’m a compulsive list keeper. As you were. 🙂 And here’s hoping there is an Essential tomorrow.
Puff, the eternal optimist!
It would be funny if you were right though.
https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/government-hypocrisy-on-anning-and-fascism
Mavis Smith @ #948 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 4:39 pm
Wasn’t posted by me – maybe another ‘Dave’ ?
No worries LR.
I’m keeping a list in a txt file rather than a spreadsheet. I’ve lumped everyone who nominated a particular figure together rather than listing each person’s prediction. For me at least, it makes it easier to see who the “winners” are.
Pegasus @ #980 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:25 pm
the shame of it…
I don’t think Essential will be that different to Newspoll….put me down for …….54-46 ALP
This is a really good piece
Strobe Talbott
Strobe Talbott
@strobetalbott
·
8h
My take on Trump’s disgraceful help to Putin’s spread of authoritarianism & undermine democracy
@POLITICO
This link should work
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/13/trump-russia-collusion-putin-223973
Essential can you put me down for 54-46 ALP??
Rex and Pegasus doing tag team agit prop from The Greens’ pet media outlet, Eureka Street. Bless!
https://twitter.com/KetanJ0/status/1084624950458122241
Why couldn’t Bill Shorten have authored this rather than Ketan…
Dan Gulberry, we’ll all be winners when this lot are thrown out.
dave @ #983 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:26 pm
Yep. Another dave.
Rex Douglas @ #991 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:38 pm
Because he doesn’t just want to appeal to a tiny minority of misfits.
BK @ #981 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 4:53 pm
Someone has to go out on the limb!
C@tmomma @ #992 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:40 pm
Can you expand on that ?
Late Riser @ #972 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:12 pm
If I had one a them perpetuities I would like
60/40 Labor to LNP
Unfortunately these much desired articles market has been cornered (so to speak) and are currently connected to a BS wave generator and are pumping out stories about thongs and nongs suitable for evening wear.
I’v had another look at the previous paragraph and, not making any sense of it, am going to have a shower and get ready for an evening of TV cricket and maybe ice cream treat. 🏏📺🍨
P.S. I couldn’t find any thing in the Guardian about an Essential either. 18th December seems to be the last one I could find.
Essential prediction
55 ALP 45 LNP
Rex Douglas @ #988 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
Because he knew it would piss you off if he didn’t!!!! 😆
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/14/pms-pledge-to-help-native-species-was-about-cutting-red-tape-for-farm-chemicals-his-office-says
His office had to clarify.
It seems that Morrison wants us to believe he is “helping native species” by removing some regulations on agricultural chemicals.