The age of entitlement

Prospects for the states’ seat entitlements in the medium term, and the Coalition’s chances of having any left to their name in Victoria after the coming election.

Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:

• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.

2013 2016 2018 2019
NSW 47.39 47.32 47.29 47.24
Victoria 36.78 37.89 38.25 38.57
Queensland 29.75 29.64 29.68 29.73
WA 16.21 15.58 15.37 15.21
SA 10.63 10.42 10.28 10.15
Tasmania 3.25 3.15 3.13 3.10
ACT 2.44 2.54 2.51 2.51
NT 1.56 1.50 1.47 1.44

It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.

The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.

• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,220 comments on “The age of entitlement”

  1. Late Riser

    It seems that Morrison wants us to believe he is “helping native species” by removing some regulations on agricultural chemicals.

    Either he is utterly ignorant or he thinks that we all fools. Or both.

  2. More polling in the federal seat of Mackellar. No word behind the group organising it yet, however it is polling about whether you would vote for an independent. Is Falinski worried?

  3. lizzie, when I read that article about agri-chemicals and native species, a vision popped into my head. It was a cartoon meat grinder with Morrison’s face, fed by random phrases (including “native species”) and with the handle of the grinder turning rapidly.

  4. Rex Douglas @ #996 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    C@tmomma @ #992 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:40 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #991 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:38 pm

    https://twitter.com/KetanJ0/status/1084624950458122241

    Why couldn’t Bill Shorten have authored this rather than Ketan…

    Because he doesn’t just want to appeal to a tiny minority of misfits.

    Can you expand on that ?

    Because Ketan Joshi is trying to create controversy in his own way by not acknowledging that,
    1. Police always give a description of what the victims were like. I also note that ‘African Gangs’ wasn’t mentioned in the description, they were just ‘of African appearance’, but ketan Joshi is putting the bellows under it to try and make it something that it isn’t, and

    2. If it was a car full of 6 people ‘of Middle Eastern appearance’ that would have been noted too. Even, ‘young, out of control, white kids’ has been used up here when they go crazy in cars and have accidents.

    3. Which goes to the most salient fact. This sort of thing has been reported since young adults have been hooning around in cars and having accidents. No matter what colour their skin is.

    So, for you to have an attack of the sads because Bill Shorten never said what Ketan Joshi did, is just plain ridiculous. He is never going to play to the tiny band of misfits that see racial profiling under every bed.

  5. Not sure if this has been detailed before but this info on the Batman by-election from the Rector of Xavier College demonstrates Catholic hopes for influence and cash when Shorten becomes PM:

    The surprising win by the ALP in Batman has been attributed to a number of factors, but one that I suspect was critical has received relatively little attention. Catholic Education Melbourne (CEM) wrote to every parent of the 5000 Catholic schoolchildren that make up more than a quarter of all school students in the seat, claiming Labor was the only party that would provide an extra $250 million in funding to Catholic schools over the first two years if it was elected, and later 30,000 ‘robo’ calls were made to similar effect. This followed Bill Shorten’s letter to Catholic leaders in which he pledged that the ALP would stand “shoulder to shoulder’’ with the Catholic ­system in the wake of a bruising battle with the Federal Government over schools funding. It is reported by The Australian that Mr Shorten rang up Mr Stephen Elder, the Executive Director of Catholic Education Melbourne, on the night of the election results to express his thanks.

    https://xavier.vic.edu.au/xavier/content/rector-89

  6. For what it’s worth, I’ve enjoyed Ed Cowans’s Comments on ABC. His chat with Dirk Nannes when bad light stopped play on day 3 of the Sydney Test was forensic on the strengths and weaknesses of current players. But Biff didn’t agree…

  7. C@tmomma @ #1007 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:59 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #996 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    C@tmomma @ #992 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:40 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #991 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 5:38 pm

    https://twitter.com/KetanJ0/status/1084624950458122241

    Why couldn’t Bill Shorten have authored this rather than Ketan…

    Because he doesn’t just want to appeal to a tiny minority of misfits.

    Can you expand on that ?

    Because Ketan Joshi is trying to create controversy in his own way by not acknowledging that,
    1. Police always give a description of what the victims were like. I also note that ‘African Gangs’ wasn’t mentioned in the description, they were just ‘of African appearance’, but ketan Joshi is putting the bellows under it to try and make it something that it isn’t, and

    2. If it was a car full of 6 people ‘of Middle Eastern appearance’ that would have been noted too. Even, ‘young, out of control, white kids’ has been used up here when they go crazy in cars and have accidents.

    3. Which goes to the most salient fact. This sort of thing has been reported since young adults have been hooning around in cars and having accidents. No matter what colour their skin is.

    So, for you to have an attack of the sads because Bill Shorten never said what Ketan Joshi did, is just plain ridiculous. He is never going to play to the tiny band of misfits that see racial profiling under every bed.

    Thankyou for expanding.

    But I’m not sure you’ve comprehended what Ketan has written.

    …well maybe you have, but in your own way.

    If only a ‘tiny bunch of misfits’ can identify racial tagging then our society is in big trouble.

  8. @ Dan
    Put me down for Labor 54-46. While I think there may be a slight swing to the Coalition, as outlined in my final sentence below, Cormann’s “high” jinks, the MDB carnage, Dutton’s self-inflicted wound over Fijian citizenship and obfuscation over the Saudi refugee may have the opposite effect. Scomo’s patriotic bleatings may have come a little late also.
    But holidays, no Parliament and no Parliamentary blunders may be helpful. We shall see. Nothing surprises me any more.
    Thanks for running the poll. ☺

  9. Clive Palmer popped up on my YouTube feed – he is still using the ‘We aren’t going to take it’ Twisted Sister number, and one of the images flashing by was Sam Dastyari

  10. C@tmomma
    says:
    Monday, January 14, 2019 at 6:06 pm
    You are a sad and pathetic individual, nath.
    __________________________
    So now the intersections of religion and politics are worthy of condemnation. The fact that the CEM launched a big effort in Batman is not newsworthy? Your vileness towards anyone who does not worship the feet of Shorten would probably not be thanked by him. You do him and the ALP constant disservice by your shrill hysterics and abuse, all the while claiming to be a member of some influence.

  11. sprocket_
    says:
    Monday, January 14, 2019 at 6:12 pm
    Why do Rex and nth shy away from poll predictions?
    __________________
    Simple. Like William, we operate on a higher plane.

  12. RD

    Have you seen:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-plays-down-emma-husar-s-potential-switch-20190113-p50r52.html

    “I think some of the treatment she’s received has been unfair but she’s made a decision not to run.”

    Is this the first time Shorten has publicly said anything supportive of Husar since she “was managed out”?

    Quite a change from last year as reported:

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-mp-made-right-call-to-quit-shorten

  13. A look at the trends from CES. Will being unable to watch “I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here” at 4k or higher finally wake up the nation to the Truffles-Abbott NBN sabotage ? 😉
    .
    Roll-up screens and 8K resolution: what the future of television looks like

    VOD continues to grow
    One technology that has the potential to deliver higher image quality is video streaming………………………..
    Netflix already offers a 4K option, but recommends “a steady internet connection speed of 25 megabits per second or higher”. According to a 2017 Ookla Speed Test Global Index, Australia was ranked 55th in the world for fixed broadband. With an average download speed of 25.88 Mbps. This speed is to be shared across devices in the home, making the Netflix 4K recommendation unattainable for many.
    https://theconversation.com/roll-up-screens-and-8k-resolution-what-the-future-of-television-looks-like-109512

  14. Re that Australian story about the car crash.

    It seems that two cars were involved. Seven men and youths were injured. In one car, there were six youths aged 16-20 “of African appearance” and in the other car was a man aged in his 40’s of unspecified ethnicity.

    There’s no information as to who might be at fault or any suggestion that the driver of one or other car targeted the other vehicle, or that anyone fled the scene.

    So it’s your basic accident report. Why specify the ethnicity of some of those involved?

  15. Pegasus @ #1030 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 6:15 pm

    RD

    Have you seen:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-plays-down-emma-husar-s-potential-switch-20190113-p50r52.html

    “I think some of the treatment she’s received has been unfair but she’s made a decision not to run.”

    Is this the first time Shorten has publicly said anything supportive of Husar since she “was managed out”?

    Quite a change from last year as reported:

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-mp-made-right-call-to-quit-shorten

    So has Bill Shorten asked NSW Labor to be independently investigated re the ‘dark elements’ ?

    If not, why not ?

  16. nath @ #1027 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 6:12 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Monday, January 14, 2019 at 6:06 pm
    You are a sad and pathetic individual, nath.
    __________________________
    So now the intersections of religion and politics are worthy of condemnation. The fact that the CEM launched a big effort in Batman is not newsworthy? Your vileness towards anyone who does not worship the feet of Shorten would probably not be thanked by him. You do him and the ALP constant disservice by your shrill hysterics and abuse, all the while claiming to be a member of some influence.

    No. I was commenting on the fact that it’s old news but YOU see fit to trawl through old news to bring it up again here.

    All the rest of the garbage you have written about me there is just self-serving nonsense about me. Pfft!

  17. One respondent to the car crash story:

    “D. Robert Digman‏

    @DRobertDigman
    3h3 hours ago
    More
    Replying to @KetanJ0
    This is what psychology calls “priming”. News generally reports bad things. By specifying irrelevant racial details, they prime readers to associate that race with the negative thing being reported.”
    (my bolding).

    No idea who Mr Digman is or what he’s a doctor of. But this would tie it in with the ‘African Gangs’ meme. The Australian and other Murdoch crapsheets want to keep it going.

  18. Essential Update (still plenty of time to get your predictions in)

    51/49
    Sprocket__;

    52/48
    It’s Time;

    53/47
    BK; Mavis; Al Pal;

    53.5/46.5
    Frednk;

    54/46
    poroti; Steve777; sonar; Upnorth; Onebobsworth;

    55/45
    Dan; Late Riser; John R; Dave; Goll; Confessions; Toby Esterhase; Rex Douglas; DareToTread;

    56/44
    grimace; Player One;

    57/43
    PuffyTMD;

    60/40
    KayJay;

  19. Speaking of Truffles and his sabotage. The article reminded me of a promise Truffles made.

    Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull assured us that a new Coalition government could deliver a minimum of 25 Mbps to all households by 2016
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/is-25-mbps-enough-for-the-future-20130410-2hkcv.html
    .
    The reality
    .
    2017 Ookla Speed Test Global Index, Australia was ranked 55th in the world for fixed broadband. With an average download speed of 25.88 Mbps.
    .

  20. C@tmomma
    says:
    No. I was commenting on the fact that it’s old news but YOU see fit to trawl through old news to bring it up again here.

    _____________________________

    So I’ll expect you to rage on whenever someone mentions something about Morrison or Trump that has already been reported elsewhere. I had not been aware of it, and was alerting people to it’s significance. You honestly think this is your domain and that anything posted here must meet your approval.

  21. Clive is pissing people off, and there’s more to come… Maybe he’s funding nth?

    “Scores of voters seethed at unsolicited text messages dispatched by Mr Palmer’s party last week urging them to vote for the UAP to “make Australia great”. The texts promised fast rail in major Australian cities and pledged reliable, affordable power for South Australia.

    Mr Palmer said he had so far sent messages to 5.6 million mobiles and generated 280,000 hits on the UAP website, with only 3000 complaints – which he claimed were “mainly robocalls by the trade union movement”.

    “We’ll be running more text messages as we get closer to the election,” Mr Palmer said. “It’s a way of stimulating debate in our democracy, it’s a way of people being able to communicate with each other and it’s recognised by the Liberal and Labor parties, who brought in the legislation, supported it in Parliament, as a desirable feature of Australian public life.”

    Mr Palmer said he did not know where the party had sourced its mobile phone distribution list but noted these were available from advertising agencies. He said the UAP provided “some contribution” to the game he launched on Monday but the figure was confidential.

    The game – which features a cartoon Mr Palmer who accumulates “biscuits” by destroying a cockroach affixed with Bill Shorten’s head – was designed and developed by Tom West of Emu War Games in Sydney.

    The company’s website contains a coat of arms with the Latin words “omnia nobis circa pecunias”, which Google translates as “all around us the money”.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/there-s-no-limit-clive-palmer-vows-to-bombard-australians-with-ads-and-unsolicited-texts-20190114-p50r8u.html

  22. Rex Douglas @ #1037 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    I wonder if the ‘dark elements’ in NSW Labor also support racial tagging by the Murdoch media ?

    Give the dog a bone, Rex Douglas!

    Did you not see Bill Shorten running around the track with Joseph Deng and Peter Bol the other day?

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1083149627438682112

    Or know that he helped them find a house to live in when racist landlords refused to let to them?

    I mean, really, this obsession with Labor is out of control!

    You and nath both need to cool your jets! You both keep going off half-cocked all the time! It’s exhausting keeping up with and attempting to debunk all the half truths and flat out lies about Bill Shorten and Labor that you two peddle. But for the sake of accuracy I will keep doing it.

  23. Rex Douglas @ #1034 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 2:19 pm

    Pegasus @ #1030 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 6:15 pm

    RD

    Have you seen:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-plays-down-emma-husar-s-potential-switch-20190113-p50r52.html

    “I think some of the treatment she’s received has been unfair but she’s made a decision not to run.”

    Is this the first time Shorten has publicly said anything supportive of Husar since she “was managed out”?

    Quite a change from last year as reported:

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/labor-mp-made-right-call-to-quit-shorten

    So has Bill Shorten asked NSW Labor to be independently investigated re the ‘dark elements’ ?

    If not, why not ?

    Because it pisses you off!!!! 😆

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