The age of entitlement

Prospects for the states’ seat entitlements in the medium term, and the Coalition’s chances of having any left to their name in Victoria after the coming election.

Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:

• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.

2013 2016 2018 2019
NSW 47.39 47.32 47.29 47.24
Victoria 36.78 37.89 38.25 38.57
Queensland 29.75 29.64 29.68 29.73
WA 16.21 15.58 15.37 15.21
SA 10.63 10.42 10.28 10.15
Tasmania 3.25 3.15 3.13 3.10
ACT 2.44 2.54 2.51 2.51
NT 1.56 1.50 1.47 1.44

It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.

The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.

• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,220 comments on “The age of entitlement”

  1. Trump is the best friend Russia has ever had: presidential historian

    Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley discounted President Donald Trump’s frequent excuse that he can’t be colluding with Russia because he’s so hard on them. In a Sunday panel discussion, Brinkley called the president the best friend Russia has ever had.

    “It’s wildly inaccurate,” Brinkley called Trump’s assessment. “He’s the best friend that Russia has had. And I’m talking about even, you know, for decades. Look at what’s happened in the last couple of years since Trump has been president. It’s a gift to Putin, the United States now pulling out of Syria. The undermining of our NATO alliance. The pulling out of the climate accord and making Russia look good on the issue of climate and the United States not in the game at all.”

    We don’t know whether it’s because of financial dealings in the 1980s or about collusion in the 2016 election, or whether there’s some secret tape they have.”

    Whatever the reason, Brinkley said that it seems like Russia is blackmailing Trump.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-best-friend-russia-ever-presidential-historian/

  2. Fot those of you worried that a post Christmas resurgence for the LNP and Morrison was a possibility, it has landed with a thump as Morrison has taken ownership of all the things wrong with Australia Day.
    Every occasion a pair of thongs passes by, with the words Australia emblazoned across them, together with the yobbos, (draped in the Union Jack), standing in them, Morrison will be remembered for his greatest contribution to Australia culture. “We will decide who comes to Australia and what they wear”.
    It’s little wonder many people over imbibe on the day set aside to mark:
    *the arrival of Governor Phillip at the tank stream.
    *the Rum Rebellion in 1808.
    *the introduction of smallpox to an unoccupied land.
    *the indigenous Australians welcomed Australia’s first
    refugees to an island in the Pacific Ocean.
    *the Roman Catholic Church banned Galileo for
    suggesting the Earth revolves around the Sun.
    *the Beaumont Childred disappeared.
    *the Luftwaffe was reformed by Hitler.
    *the test debut of Mark Taylor.
    *the Dutchman Willem Janszoon visited Weipa.
    *the PM Morrison banned thongs.

  3. phoenixRED:

    [‘Whatever the reason, Brinkley said that it seems like Russia is blackmailing Trump.’]

    I reckon that’s the crux of the matter.

  4. phoenixRed:

    This statement from Toddler in Chief has also drawn disbelief for the implied threat of a NATO ally. Again you gotta ask, cui bono?

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    5h5 hours ago
    Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone….

  5. So it is the Government’s job to support people who aspire to exploit tax breaks and rorts?
    And it is the role of all the taxpayers, including the soon to be majority without property, to fund those people’s aspirations for multiple properties?
    Does my head in.

  6. Ross,

    My suggestion is that your son and his partner obtain financial planning advice from a trusted source.

    Investment is a long term commitment. So, they either got in to it for a relatively quick flip and profit or they are prepared to tough it out for long term gain. Property has always been the key to wealth accumulation in Australia. However, as is evident, there can be down sides as well as strong capital gain.

    Interest only loans are suddenly back in fashion. However, they need to know that the loan term is 30 years and with the expiry of the interest only time they have, the bank will expect them to pay off the total loan is 25 years.

    Sure, re-financing is an option. But, if the value has dropped then your son will be in negative equity territory.

  7. Confessions

    Weren’t people weeping just a few days ago how Trump was leaving the Kurds at the mercy of the Turks ?

    The Turks, well Pasha Erdogan, need a good wacking for the games they have been playing in Syria and the assistance they have given various head choppers. Remember the thousands of oil trucks taking oil for ISIS over the border ?

  8. GG

    The anecdote related to my son’s colleague, not his partner.

    My two sons are renters, priced out of the market by the boom and speculators.

    But it’s all ill wind. Rents have been falling steadily over the last few years.

  9. poroti says:
    Monday, January 14, 2019 at 3:23 pm
    Confessions

    Weren’t people weeping just a few days ago how Trump was leaving the Kurds at the mercy of the Turks ?

    The Turks, well Pasha Erdogan, need a good wacking for the games they have been playing in Syria and the assistance they have given various head choppers. Remember the thousands of oil trucks taking oil for ISIS over the border ?

    ________________________________________

    Actually withdrawing troops protecting Kurds will patently leave them vulnerable. Threatening to impose economic sanctions does nothing at all unless the Turks take him seriously, which is a big ask. And even then it is almost certain that Trump, as usual, is talking through the same arse that came up with the Mexico Will Pay for the Great Big Beautiful Wall stunt. This statement is not to be taken seriously – it’s just a theatrical sop to the military in the hope that they will believe him. They won’t.

  10. TPOF says: Monday, January 14, 2019 at 3:32 pm

    Actually withdrawing troops protecting Kurds will patently leave them vulnerable

    it’s just a theatrical sop to the military in the hope that they will believe him. They won’t.

    *************************************************

    They DON’T …….

    U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth, an Army veteran who lost both of her legs in Iraq when her helicopter was shot down, issued a statement on Friday criticizing the president’s approach to Syria.

    “It’s clear the Trump administration has no unified strategy and that’s putting our military in a very difficult situation as they try to carry out and execute the president’s orders,” said Duckworth (D-Ill.) “Despite President Trump telling the American people that ‘We have won against ISIS,’ the U.S. military appears to disagree with his assessment and clearly believes the fight against ISIS must continue.

    “That is why I am alarmed about how a rushed withdrawal without conditions could empower ISIS and endanger our Kurdish allies in the Syrian Democratic Forces. I have seen no real plans to prevent Turkey from attacking the Kurdish forces that have been our most effective and reliable allies in an unstable region. They have served alongside our military combatting ISIS and betraying them would be disgraceful.”

  11. I think BK may’ve posted this article, but it’s worthy of another look on the basis of quite a few posters are Trump supporters, come hell or high water. What’s it come to that many of the moron’s supporters – here and in the US – are unconcerned that the POTUS is allegedly a Russian operative?

  12. TPOF

    If they are getting out, well over due, then what big stick can you threaten Erdogan with, well military and economic. Do you prefer the military option ?

  13. After 7 rounds of public hearings, 68 days of hearing , 6 CEO interviews (CBA, ANZ, NAB, Westpac, AMP Macquarie Group), 2 regulator chair interviews (both ASIC + APRA), and 400 witness statements from 134 witnesses here is the final closing address by the senior counsel.Great work to the legal teams involved.

  14. poroti says:
    Monday, January 14, 2019 at 3:42 pm
    TPOF

    If they are getting out, well over due, then what big stick can you threaten Erdogan with, well military and economic. Do you prefer the military option ?

    ____________________________________

    I prefer that the Kurds remain protected. Threats – economic or military – are worthless to dead Kurds who risked their lives to cleanse the area of Muslim fanatics (who threatened the USA as well as locally) and who are being abandoned by their supposed ally. And yes, I’m ‘weeping’, as you so sneeringly put it.

  15. phoenixRED @ #843 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    Jeff Bezos’ racy texts to Lauren Sanchez revealed

    The Amazon CEO is said to have sent his lover a string of X-rated remarks as well as erotic selfies that are “too explicit” to publish.

    A string of steamy text messages allegedly sent by Amazon boss Jeff Bezos to his “secret TV star lover” have been leaked.

    The texts, published by the National Enquirer, reportedly date back to last April — long before Bezos announced his split from wife of 25 years MacKenzie, the NY Post reports.

    He reportedly also sent her erotic selfies, which the magazine says were “too explicit” to print on its pages.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/relationships/marriage/jeff-bezos-racy-texts-to-lauren-sanchez-revealed/news-story/28aeedadb66344e02f7351b22834dad5

    So how exactly did the NE obtain these photos? Phone hacking?

  16. GazzaFromGrongGrong (Guardian contributor) in good poetic form:

    The quiet ones are waiting, Scott,
    to silence all your right-wing rot,
    to send the likes of Tony A
    so very, very far away,
    for you lot are a headless chook,
    not quite dead yet, but pretty crook,
    and staggering about the place,
    a hopeless, helpless, hapless case,
    with Malcolm sticking in the boot,
    harsh retribution in a suit,
    so bring on the election, mate,
    just go ahead and set the date,
    for your old chook is out of luck,
    and only fit for Bill to pluck.

  17. torchbearer @ #902 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 3:10 pm

    So it is the Government’s job to support people who aspire to exploit tax breaks and rorts?
    And it is the role of all the taxpayers, including the soon to be majority without property, to fund those people’s aspirations for multiple properties?
    Does my head in.

    And then for that government to harass to death those who live in rental property and need social security payments from the government!?!

  18. Dan Gulberry says:

    Monday, January 14, 2019 at 3:51 pm

    phoenixRED @ #843 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 10:27 am

    He reportedly also sent her erotic selfies, which the magazine says were “too explicit” to print on its pages.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/relationships/marriage/jeff-bezos-racy-texts-to-lauren-sanchez-revealed/news-story/28aeedadb66344e02f7351b22834dad5

    So how exactly did the NE obtain these photos? Phone hacking?

    ********************************************************

    Dan – I can’t 100% guarantee this – but I read somewhere that Bezos G/F Lauren Sanchez shared the texts and pics with a girlfriend who then onsold it all to the National Enquirer ….. but that could be a cover story to disguise phone hacking ala Murdoch

  19. poroti:

    People’s apparent surprise at Trump’s tweet is because it implies that the WH has decided that economic security and national security are unrelated. Similar reactions to this:

    Michael S. Smith IIVerified account@MichaelSSmithII
    4h4 hours ago
    President of the United States has threatened to “devastate Turkey economically.” Either the Trump administration has decided economic well-being and national security are not two sides of the same coin, or this is an unprecedented threat to a NATO ally

    Plus what TPOF said. I do not believe the US should be withdrawing its troops from Syria for reasons I’ve stated previously. But the puppet master wants US troops out of Syria, so the puppet complies.

  20. Click-bait:

    The businessman-turned-politician drew the ire of many recipients of “unsolicited” text messages spruiking his policies last week — but he claims it’s legal and there will be more on the way.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-14/clive-palmer-says-texts-are-legal-and-will-send-more/10713618

    Just because something is legal (technically I think it is not illegal) it doesn’t mean it is a good idea. It’s a bit like farting loudly in a crowded lift. You get some attention.

  21. What’s it come to that many of the moron’s supporters – here and in the US – are unconcerned that the POTUS is allegedly a Russian operative?

    At this point I’m more concerned about congressional Republicans and their responses.

    Steve Schmidt was interviewed the other day and he reckons (FWIW) that in addition to the thumping midterms loss, Trump’s poor speech the other day where he appeared as broken and out of bluster will be the catalyst for Republicans to start to push back against him. He expects they will join with Democrats soon to reopen the govt.

  22. Over the weekend my wife got two different text’s from Palmer. One spruiking high speed rail in Brisbane, and the other about WA getting 100% of it’s GST.

  23. “Palmer is spamming voters. They will love that….not.”

    He txt spammed me, my wife and daughter but I can say this in no way changed his esteem level with any of us. I think you can all work out why that would be so….

  24. Not my intent to return to the cut and thrust of this site, BUT, there was a demographic of people in business who would say that they were not concerned by paying tax – because the reason they were paying tax is that they were making money.

    If they were not paying tax, they were not making money and that would be a problem.

    The object of business and doing business is to make money.

    I still socialize with those who uttered those objectives to me – and they still transact profitable businesses, and they still pay tax.

    Yet we have a Liberal Party Minister promoting that you “get rich” by using someone else’s money (courtesy of collateral security) to buy a LOSS making investment – and to reduce your tax liability.

    Everyone is rich enough to do something, the challenge being not to over extend and, equally, not to under achieve.

    Perhaps some may wish to take legal action against the Liberal Party Minister over the “quality” of the financial advice he promotes.

  25. It’s Already Collusion
    We don’t need news reports to tell us that Trump is giving Putin what he wants. Take it from this longtime Russia hand: It’s staring us in the face.
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/01/13/trump-russia-collusion-putin-223973

    The Cold War is back with several new and ominous features. The tables have turned. Putin is on a roll. Strongmen in Europe are cloning themselves after him and with his help. Democracy is under stress if not crisis. So are regional and global institutions founded under the leadership of the U.S. after World War II, notably NATO and the integration of Western Europe. And then there’s the U.S.’s pullback from the Middle East, potentially leaving Russia the only major power in the region.

    Trumpism is a godsend to Putin and a nightmare for governments in his sights—including Trump’s. The U.S. commander-in-chief is out of sync with his own administration, not to mention the government as a whole. Note his stubborn yearning to lift sanctions on Putin’s pet oligarchs.

  26. Observer

    I had a friend who worked as a business adviser. His first question for someone seeking business advice was, “How much tax do you want to be paying in X years time?” If the answer was ‘none’, he showed them the door.

  27. Confessions:

    [‘At this point I’m more concerned about congressional Republicans and their responses.’]

    Yes, those too, most of whom will have egg on they face if the Mueller report is damaging for Trump. Lindsey Graham is one of Trump’s loudest supporters. I think Trump has the goods on him.

  28. Brian Keenan @ #930 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 4:07 pm

    “Palmer is spamming voters. They will love that….not.”

    He txt spammed me, my wife and daughter but I can say this in no way changed his esteem level with any of us. I think you can all work out why that would be so….

    He finally got around to spamming me today. I replied to his text and told him to pay his workers their Entitlements! 😆

  29. The Cold War is back with several new and ominous features. The tables have turned. Putin is on a roll. Strongmen in Europe are cloning themselves after him and with his help. Democracy is under stress if not crisis.

    This is why I have no time for the gillets jeunes. Putin would have been mightily disappointed that he lost, via Marine Le Pen, to Macron. Putin is like an elephant, he never forgets. So I wouldn’t put it past him to be fomenting the unrest.

  30. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, January 14, 2019 at 4:13 pm

    He finally got around to spamming me today. I replied to his text and told him to pay his workers their Entitlements!

    ________________________________________

    Sadly, that achieves almost as little as replying to one of Nath’s trolls.

  31. poroti @ #899 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 2:23 pm

    Confessions

    Weren’t people weeping just a few days ago how Trump was leaving the Kurds at the mercy of the Turks ?

    The Turks, well Pasha Erdogan, need a good wacking for the games they have been playing in Syria and the assistance they have given various head choppers. Remember the thousands of oil trucks taking oil for ISIS over the border ?

    The problem for the USA re Turkey is that like it or not it is the strongest military power in NATO. If the US is too harsh against Erdogan, what is to stop him leaving NATO and throwing his lot in with Russia. It requires skilled diplomacy,but I do not think there is anyone in the US with the skills any more.

  32. TPOF @ #938 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 4:18 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, January 14, 2019 at 4:13 pm

    He finally got around to spamming me today. I replied to his text and told him to pay his workers their Entitlements!

    ________________________________________

    Sadly, that achieves almost as little as replying to one of Nath’s trolls.

    I know, but, you know, maybe if his operatives are reading this blog they might get the message! 😆

    Actually, that’s an interesting question, who, after copious evidence that Clive Palmer is an Australian version of Trump in more ways than one, and considering his first effort in federal parliament, would want to work for him on his second attempt to gull the punters!?!

  33. I’m sure all here are aware of the irony, but as no-one has yet articulated it, I will.

    Prime Ranter And Raver, Shouty McShoutface is promising to govern for the “quiet people”.

    The World says, “The UK and the US are being led by utter morons”. Australia says “Hold my beer”.

  34. Dan

    I’m not sure that Theresa May is a moron. I don’t know what makes her tick, and why she persists in the crazy job she is in, but she has been quite assiduous in trying to come up with anything to satisfy the incompatible factions in her own party. That said, she is actually a terrible politician, possibly one of the worst ever to be PM (at least since Macmillan).

  35. Dan Gulberry @ #941 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 12:31 pm

    I’m sure all here are aware of the irony, but as no-one has yet articulated it, I will.

    Prime Ranter And Raver, Shouty McShoutface is promising to govern for the “quiet people”.

    The World says, “The UK and the US are being led by utter morons”. Australia says “Hold my beer”.

    It’s their mythical silent majority that was going to stand up in the SSM vote. 😆

  36. Theresa May is awful but Labour & Corbyn are so terrible that the conservatives are neck and neck in the polls.

    What is the Labour view on Brexit? Who knows.

  37. I think it was Dave who posted this morning that Essential is 55-45, but I can’t find any reference to it in the Guardian or the GhostwhoVotes.

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